Cardiff-2

[Reversethrustset]

Possibly with BHD it is a case of it's not profitable as an ejet operation, if and when it swaps back to a Q400 it may well be but I know the route was losing money as an ejet route.

Using the 180,000 pax per year per airframe figure you quote, if you are running for arguments sake a 180 seat aircraft then that aircraft would only run 3 x per week at those loads to carry those passengers per year. Is that enough to attract carriers? I don't know because clearly that's 10-15 routes in total. Other airlines will look at route specific figures rather than a collective so that'll bring the figures per route crashing down which doesn't make a route viable for such a large aircraft, however, they may cherry pick the best ones and run them a couple of times per week, we can only hope.

[PDXCWL45]

Originally Posted by Reversethrustset

Possibly with BHD it is a case of it's not profitable as an ejet operation, if and when it swaps back to a Q400 it may well be but I know the route was losing money as an ejet route.

Using the 180,000 pax per year per airframe figure you quote, if you are running for arguments sake a 180 seat aircraft then that aircraft would only run 3 x per week at those loads to carry those passengers per year. Is that enough to attract carriers? I don't know because clearly that's 10-15 routes in total. Other airlines will look at route specific figures rather than a collective so that'll bring the figures per route crashing down which doesn't make a route viable for such a large aircraft, however, they may cherry pick the best ones and run them a couple of times per week, we can only hope.

I think it would depend on the airline as well. An airline like Ryanair or Easyjet would have a much bigger pull than Flybe so could get much bigger numbers.
The problem I see now is that Flybe will revert back to the props which for many will put them off flying with Flybe due to many peoples perception of props especially with the option of Easyjet over the bridge. That's assuming Flybe don't drop CWL altogether and I'm actually wondering if that might be the better option in the long run. It may be better for both parties if Flybe leaves altogether as I also think any trust between the two parties especially from the airport will be broken. Yes it's business but you still need some sort of trust between parties to work together effectively.

[Sharklet_321]

Agreed - the way Flybe has gone about this by releasing 'base closures' is all wrong, the media think the airline is pulling out completely. Such a big no no in airline PR to announce you are closing a base if you actually mean you are converting it to W-pattern flying. They are losing so many passengers across their entire network. Some people think they have gone bust already (people getting confused with the news reports of FLYBmi) and this negative news just forces people to look elsewhere.

[PDXCWL45]

Instead of having a base I wonder if the airport could persuade Flybe to overnight an aircraft for BHD and EDI at least to operate a early morning departure.

[bycrewlgw]

Originally Posted by PDXCWL45

Instead of having a base I wonder if the airport could persuade Flybe to overnight an aircraft for BHD and EDI at least to operate a early morning departure.

clutching at straws I know but they’re closing the JET base but could there be potential for a prop base?

[Reversethrustset]

No, the base is closing, pilots will be directionally moved and cabin crew are up for redundancy

[PDXCWL45]

Originally Posted by Reversethrustset

No, the base is closing, pilots will be directionally moved and cabin crew are up for redundancy

But would that have happened if APD was devolved to the Welsh government and the government reduced it to zero?

In the end it's a massive setback for the airport but not the crippling blow that a few years ago it might have been. With an expanded base from TUI and Thomas Cook and KLM adding more seats with more appearances of the E190 and interest from Ryanair the lost passenger numbers hopefully eventually will be made up and it might mean that the airport will have to change its focus to more leisure type routes to the Mediterranean and beyond.

[Reversethrustset]

The honest answer is who knows? APD is obviously a government tax which the passenger has to pay so the question that has to be asked is "if there was no APD which subsequently brought down ticket prices would that attract more passengers to Flybe's routes?" Because without extra passengers APD is irrelevant to the financial accounts of Flybe.

[SWBKCB]

But would that have happened if APD was devolved to the Welsh government and the government reduced it to zero?

I'd have a look at the news as to what might happen if the Welsh government reduced APD to zero

[MerchantVenturer]

There is no certainty that an airine would reduce its fares if APD was reduced, or zeroed or axed. It might keep them broadly as they were but retain the APD equivalent in order to improve yield instead of handing it to government.

In recent weeks the Westminster Welsh Home Affairs Select Committee has been taking evidence at various sessions - all available to view online - regarding APD devolution to Wales. They've heard evidence, both written and oral, from government ministers (Westminster and the Welsh Government), airport representatives (including CWL, BRS and MAN), airlines, taxation and travel 'experts' amongst others.

Ryanair said that APD is hampering its development at CWL, although I fancy they would say that about many airports as reduction/abolition of aviation tax is something the airline management has championed for many years.

As to the overall effects of APD abolition in Wales (effectively at CWL as it's the only airport of any size in the country), the committee was faced with the conflictng conclusions of two reports, neither neutral as one was commissoned by the Welsh Government and the other by Bristol Airport.

The Welsh Affairs Committee currently consists of ten Westminster MPs, nine representing Welsh constituencies and the other a constituency on the edge of Bristol. Having watched most if not all the evidence-taking sessions, it was apparent that one or two of the 'Welsh' MPs seem to have some misgivings about the idea of APD devolution: one was concerned about climate change and at least one of the others who is from North Wales wondered what would be in it for people living in that area given that most use MAN and LPL.

Nevertheless, I think it likely that a consensus will emerge in favour of APD devolution when the committee reports its findings which doesn't mean to say the Westminster Government will act on them.

[SWBKCB]

As well as a fund raising measure (and if APD is cut in Wales, that money will then need to come from somewhere else), APD is meant to have an environmental impact in reducing carbon emmissions.

Given the current debate on climate change, is a tax cut encouraging air travel really something that politicians are going to support - especially if the benefits are kept by the airlines and not passed to the customer?

[PDXCWL45]

Originally Posted by SWBKCB

I'd have a look at the news as to what might happen if the Welsh government reduced APD to zero

on

I doubt many of those protestors know even where Wales is let alone Cardiff. Also if they wanted to target countries with low APD why are there not demonstrations in Dublin?
APD would come off the block grant but i'd have thought the Welsh government would see it as an investment in Wales by attracting new airlines and routes and in the Flybe case keeping an airline to continue to operate routes and continue to provide people with jobs in the area. Also lets not forget APD has already been devolved to Scotland and long haul to Northern Ireland with the treasury looking into devoling short haul APD to Northern Ireland as well.
My question is more just me wondering out aloud in whether it would've made a difference in their decision and turned an apparently non profitable base into a profitable one in which they would've kept the base in place.

[caaardiff]

Reducing APD would no doubt have a positive effect on the bottom line for Flybe (and others).
For example, and feel free to correct me if I'm working this out wrong; lets say Flybe's average load factor at CWL is 75% (66 passengers), and lets say 10 of them are under 16 so not eligible to pay APD, so on average 56 passengers per flight paying £13 APD.
Each aircraft doing 6 sectors (3 return flights) per day.
56 passengers x£13 = £728 per flight
728 x 6 sectors = £4368 per aircraft per day
£4368 x 3 based aircraft = £13104 in APD alone per day.
Multiply that by 363 days of full travel per year = £4,756,752
Note: This is based on E75 capacity.

It's worth noting that the government is forecasting to earn 3.5Billion from APD in 2018/19

[caaardiff]

These are the passenger figures from the CAA 2018 stats. It's interesting to see that CWL carries by far more passengers on these routes than at DSA and the home base EXT with the potential loss of JER, DUB and CDG due to being non based routes.
BHD - CWL 70784 DSA 16766 (EXT 36722)
EDI - CWL 102102 (EXT 48076)
JER - CWL 20095 DSA 33032 (EXT 41240)
DUB - CWL 108275 DSA 33659 (EXT 35587)
CDG - CWL 77676 DSA 36181 (EXT 50016)

[PDXCWL45]

Makes you wonder how profitable Exeter is?

[PDXCWL45]

So it looks like that the new 3rd based TUI aircraft will be from ASL ASL France. Will be interesting to see if its a 700 or 800. I'd have thought that the cabin crew would be TUI and flight crew ASL similar to TCX.

[Letsflycwl]

I’m under the impression ASL Airlines France only operate B737-300 and B737-700 aircraft, they don’t have the B737-800 is their fleet.

[PDXCWL45]

Originally Posted by Letsflycwl

I’m under the impression ASL Airlines France only operate B737-300 and B737-700 aircraft, they don’t have the B737-800 is their fleet.

I know its only Wikipedia but it says ASL group have 2 800s

[caaardiff]

Originally Posted by PDXCWL45

So it looks like that the new 3rd based TUI aircraft will be from ASL ASL France. Will be interesting to see if its a 700 or 800. I'd have thought that the cabin crew would be TUI and flight crew ASL similar to TCX.

It's a short term lease to cover Max shortfalls throughout the fleet. It's likely to be a full ASL crew compliment to avoid the cost and hassle of training TUI crew. Wouldn't be surprised if a TUI crew member is placed on board as a customer service representation and to utilise the crew.

[JobsaGoodun]

Originally Posted by caaardiff

These are the passenger figures from the CAA 2018 stats. It's interesting to see that CWL carries by far more passengers on these routes than at DSA and the home base EXT with the potential loss of JER, DUB and CDG due to being non based routes.
BHD - CWL 70784 DSA 16766 (EXT 36722)
EDI - CWL 102102 (EXT 48076)
JER - CWL 20095 DSA 33032 (EXT 41240)
DUB - CWL 108275 DSA 33659 (EXT 35587)
CDG - CWL 77676 DSA 36181 (EXT 50016)

However, BHDEXT is at most single daily DH4 against double daily E75 on CWL, as is EDI, suggesting that yield is likely better at EXT. Any airline can fill an aircraft with £20 tickets...it’s filling it and making money that’s important. What’s clear is that Flybe can’t do this with an E75 based in CWL at the level necessary, even with the support offered by CWL and by the Welsh Gvnt. If they could, they wouldn’t be closing the base.