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Old 21st Sep 2018, 16:15
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Hopefully someone is reading this and gets the message to the CAA. Don’t they or EASA carry out physical audits?
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Old 21st Sep 2018, 17:24
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CAA - Report a safety concern
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Old 21st Sep 2018, 18:46
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The 02 approach lights ,trees encrouchment etc are not up to scratch!
As with other operations at SOU it is a fudge!
The masterplan looks good on paper,but that is as far as it goes!
It remains to be seen if anything will happen!
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Old 21st Sep 2018, 22:42
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Originally Posted by RW20
The 02 approach lights ,trees encrouchment etc are not up to scratch!
As with other operations at SOU it is a fudge!
The masterplan looks good on paper,but that is as far as it goes!
It remains to be seen if anything will happen!
I still can't understand your pessimistic views after all you have been very vocal about any lack of investment at SOU and now we have a very realistic Master Plan and you still disapprove.

This Master Plan is very different to the former one dating from 2006, at least we have artist impressions of the Terminal extension which we haven't had before so I personally think that will we eventually get that airside investment that you've been banging on about for the last year or so.

Lets be positive about this new Master Plan because this time last week none of us on here would never expected it to appear as it does, I'm very excited to say the least.
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Old 21st Sep 2018, 23:02
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Masterplan

It's nice to actually have something new to talk about on this thread rather than the usual same points getting bought up over and over again!

Having been over the Masterplan in reasonable detail I have to say it seems on the whole quite realistic and achievable to me. The key operational factors that forever get mentioned are all being addressed, at least to enough of an extent to make the airport more attractive to carriers who operate the 737 and A32X families, which just happen to be the majority of Europe's airlines! It seems clear from the plan that the airport want one of the major locos to set up a base there, and any prior thoughts that they may want to 'protect' the dominant position of Flybe can now be brushed aside, which is good to see. There is also very much the suggestion that the significant increase in passengers will primarily be down to a new loco base, which adds to my previous point, I guess they may see Flybe being pretty stagnant for the next few years.

In terms of airfield changes, the northern taxiway should more than halve backtracking, reducing delays and also wasted fuel/emissions. As others have mentioned, this would leave the airport with a similar layout to Luton, and I would think even the hypothetical 5m pa SOU won't have nearly as many movements as Luton manages to handle today, so I don't see any real issue here. Stand alterations look good, being able to handle 4 A32x/737/Cseries/E2's at once is a big improvement. 13 stands vs the current 14 seems like a non-issue to me, currently they are pretty underutilised with only 6-8 overnighting aircraft, and there is even the suggestion that additional stands could be built without too much concern. Only thing I see is the potential for some pushback delays across the stands caused the 'lone' stand that faces the train line. The second phase of stand expansion also looks promising, with the majority of the airports stands (10/17) then being able to handle 737/A32X aircraft. Finally the runway strip should bring the airport to being fairly comparable to Southend, where EZY fly to the canaries on A320's, so the small change has the potential to make a big difference to load restrictions on mid sized aircraft. Moving the ancillary hangers etc across the airfield as per the longer term goal also gives them more opportunity to expand or be added to if there is demand, without having to fight for space with the commercial operation.

The terminal expansion will most definitely be required, the current one is pretty much at its comfortable limit, certainly during busy periods. A crude interpretation of the diagram would suggest that the floor area will be increased by at least 2/3. I do find it interesting that this expansion is deemed sufficient for the 2027 and 2037 requirements, I would think it would be getting a little cosy with 5m pax pa, unless they plan to make most of it two floors. Either way, I expect we will see the end of the neat design the current 'original' terminal has, but at least it is for a good reason. The walkway for stands 7-11 is very useful, and saves the rather wasteful bus journeys that happen to those, which should benefit punctuality and ground emissions a little, although this will mostly be reversed with the second phase of stand expansion. Hopefully immigration will be suitably expanded so people don't have to queue outside every time a >100 seater arrives!

One thing of interest in the Surface Access Strategy document is the predicted year on year growth. It says elsewhere they want an average of 4.6%, however the individual year on year shows a big jump from 2.1-3.7 million passengers between 2017 and 2021, perhaps suggesting that a major step change is capacity is expected/being negotiated? See the graphic here: https://gyazo.com/c9ed38ba500511ec54c1e2c3d8a48ef3

Not sure if I have added anything new to the debate/discussion, but just wanted to get my thoughts on the Masterplan across. I hope to see some of it come to fruition soon.
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Old 22nd Sep 2018, 08:03
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SOU has 4 public consultation days for discussing the Masterplan

Members of the public will have the opportunity to meet with representatives from the airport to discuss the Master Plan in more detail and share their feedback. A series of drop-in sessions will be held at the following venues:
  • Friday 5 October – Shawford Parish Hall, 17:00 – 21:00
  • Monday 8 October – Holiday Inn Eastleigh, 17:00 – 21:00
  • Tuesday 16 October – Bitterne Park School, 17:00 – 21:00
  • Saturday 20 October – Southampton Airport, 09:00 – 13:00
To view the Southampton Airport Master Plan and find out further information on how to submit your views please visit www.southamptonairport.com/masterplan. The consultation will close on Tuesday 30 October 2018.
The previous Master Plan was published in November 2006, following public consultation. Since then the airport has grown to handle a record 2.1 million passengers in 2017 which SOU states they wish to double to 4m

I may have a toddle down to one of these.
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Old 22nd Sep 2018, 10:53
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Thanks for your thoughts Adfly, eminently sensible as always.
Another interesting quote from the Surface Access Strategy is "It is expected that by 2021 the number of passengers will increase by 89%, with most growth predicted in the international market."
Given that we're almost in 2019, predicting that passenger numbers will almost double by 2021 is a bold claim over a short timescale. Either they're expecting great things of the FlyLolo expansion next year, or something else is in the pipeline.
Looking at their prediction graphs they expect an extra 1 million international pax per year by 2021. Even with the best will in the world Lolo couldn't account for that surely?
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Old 22nd Sep 2018, 11:39
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It sounds to me like Jet2/easyJet/Ryanair may be pitching BOH & SOU against each other in a bid to lower costs for a new base or sizeable expansion. 1m pax will not come from a couple of w flights inbound from Europe.

Or

TUI could be considering basing a single 737-800 there (that would only be 250-300,000 pax though).

Others have said BA Cityflyer would be a great fit for SOU. Assuming for a moment BA Cityflyer based all their new 4 aircraft orders at SOU instead of LCY that would only account for 750,000 pax.

And...

Have Flybe pledged to upgrade their Q400's from 78 seats to 90 seats? This could also be part of the forecast.
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Old 22nd Sep 2018, 11:55
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I agree with the sentiment expressed in recent posts that at last there is a Master Plan that is possibly achievable in most respects. I am however curious to see some more detail on what is going to be proposed for parking stands, especially the speculative mention of two additional.

Indication of a need for 13 stands would appear to include the loss of one in the cul-de-sac to accomodate 4 A320/B738 stands. What is going to happen to the rest?

As I previously mentioned nothing significant can be done to stand 6. The remaining stands 7-12 are only circa 33 M wide so no good for A320/B738, plus they are not long enough to accomodate a A320/B738, quite apart from the tailfin height issue caused by nose-in parking that I previously speculated that CAA would not accept.

It would appear that the most economic option would be to demolish the Cargo Building and divert the car park access road to remove the bend. That would appear to release enough land provide two more A320/B738 stands, albeit with the logistical problems of bussing PAX. However this is a considerable improvement over the fantastical intent of the previous Master Plan to build a second Terminal in the northeast corner of the airport.

Last edited by TCAS FAN; 22nd Sep 2018 at 11:57. Reason: spelling correction
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Old 22nd Sep 2018, 13:10
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My gut feel is that EZY will start up a SOU base within 2 years (bold I know and of course could be totally wrong). As described above, the passenger growth projections from 2019 - 2021 increase by 1.6m and this will only come from a LCC base in my opinion. This type of expansion mirrors that of EZY at London Southend when they announced a new base with 3 aircraft flying to 10 destinations initially and carrying over 500k passengers per annum. In an interview at the time the CEO of EZY described the new base as being very attractive to them with a train station on site meaning a great passenger experience for their customers of air side to land side in under 15 minutes and central London within 56 minutes (SOU being 66 minutes) and that this type of opportunity was aligned to their future vision of overall transport connectivity. The airport infrastructure at SOU is already in place, albeit air side and terminal will need expanding, and with good road and rail links to London and at a time when the South East has runway capacity issues that will not be alleviated for probably another 10 years with runway 3 at LHR. I don't see Ryanair setting up a base as they have just announced EXE and BOU is already on the doorstep. Jet2 I also see as more leisure out of BOU if a base was introduced and in any case I don't think they have the airframe capacity at present to expand further. Interesting times!
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Old 22nd Sep 2018, 13:43
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Sorry I cannot see for one minute that TUI will base one of their 737-800's at SOU.
Not gonna happen, nor is Jet2 or FR IMO.
I may go to one of the open days next month to ascertain their views on the Boeing ever going into SOU, but I reckon the 738/73MAX is the wrong fit for SOU.

They (TUI) have bases at BOH and EXT with a single a/c, but increasingly their holidays in our region from SOU, BOH and EXT are being placed on 3rd party overseas carriers such as Freebird, Albastar, Volotea, Evelop and Air Europa, or using W patterns.

Flybe are dedicated to the Q400 but, from 78 to 90 seats? blimey that will be tight - what about their business passenger model & that top fare market ?
There is not AFAIK an upgrade available to existing a/c, but is a brand new HGW variant of the Q400, thus a Flybe order roll-over for new models would be required. (expensive)

EZY I can def see them expanding at SOU once they know the airport can handle it....

BA/CF have recently developed more EMB jet leisure routes (many seasonal) from STN BHX and BRS plus the expansion of their fleet for their latest LCY routes for S19.
They publicly haven't commented on using SOU AFAIK - personally I think they could do well out of SOU - they have the right a/c and the marketing power and would give Flybe a run for their money, plus any downtime could see getting IT charter work as they have done rather well for some years out of the provinces and Scotland.
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Old 23rd Sep 2018, 08:51
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Originally Posted by rog747
Sorry I cannot see for one minute that TUI will base one of their 737-800's at SOU.
Not gonna happen, nor is Jet2 or FR IMO.
I may go to one of the open days next month to ascertain their views on the Boeing ever going into SOU, but I reckon the 738/73MAX is the wrong fit for SOU.

They (TUI) have bases at BOH and EXT with a single a/c, but increasingly their holidays in our region from SOU, BOH and EXT are being placed on 3rd party overseas carriers such as Freebird, Albastar, Volotea, Evelop and Air Europa, or using W patterns.

Flybe are dedicated to the Q400 but, from 78 to 90 seats? blimey that will be tight - what about their business passenger model & that top fare market ?
There is not AFAIK an upgrade available to existing a/c, but is a brand new HGW variant of the Q400, thus a Flybe order roll-over for new models would be required. (expensive)

EZY I can def see them expanding at SOU once they know the airport can handle it....

BA/CF have recently developed more EMB jet leisure routes (many seasonal) from STN BHX and BRS plus the expansion of their fleet for their latest LCY routes for S19.
They publicly haven't commented on using SOU AFAIK - personally I think they could do well out of SOU - they have the right a/c and the marketing power and would give Flybe a run for their money, plus any downtime could see getting IT charter work as they have done rather well for some years out of the provinces and Scotland.
Would imagine a LCC is driving the expansion for the airport!
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Old 23rd Sep 2018, 16:56
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LCC?

Originally Posted by stewyb
Would imagine a LCC is driving the expansion for the airport!
Maybe - but as such we don't have one at all right now!
Hence the open days may prove interesting - anyone else going?

We only have Flybe, which is torn in the middle from being a LCC to offering a businessman's' top fare deal (which is appalling value)
EZY does a winter ski run and that's it for now...

Re my post comment above about EZY
SOU needs to woo someone PDQ to get a decent programme going at SOU
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Old 23rd Sep 2018, 17:00
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businessman's' top fare deal (which is appalling value)
If they were appalling "value" nobody would buy them - time is money!
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Old 23rd Sep 2018, 17:41
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Originally Posted by SWBKCB
If they were appalling "value" nobody would buy them - time is money!

Precisely - That is my whole point that FlyMaybe must try harder to run a flight schedule and be on time, and with fewer cancellations.
Plus offer a better on board product for the Flex top fare prices they are charging ...

Flybe need to make their mind up and decide whether they want to woo the businessman who wants to be ontime and comfortable, or chase the student and tourist who will only pay peanuts...and pays to get those peanuts with their overpriced lukewarm coffee.
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Old 23rd Sep 2018, 18:52
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FlyMaybe must try harder to run a flight schedule and be on time
If they were appalling "value" nobody would buy them
I've taken 4 day-return trips for business from SOU so far this year, with Flybe and one of their franchise operators.

They've all been on time or near enough (out and back) and have cost between around £100-£200.

I've also travelled from the Thames Valley to Leeds by train on day trips a few times, and on each occasion these have been over £200 (standard class).

Not that "appalling" in my view and service friendly and professional on all flights (the trains were ok aswell, but that's a lot of money!)
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Old 23rd Sep 2018, 21:41
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Coming back to the passenger number predictions from the surface access strategy, I've done some back-of-a-fag-packet maths.
2018 is predicted to be 2.1mppa.
2019 is predicted to be 2.9mppa.

Where will the 800k extra pax come from?
Being generous and giving Lolo 100k pax over the peak summer months for their expanded programme, that leaves 700k to find.
Assuming nothing new happens for the remainder of the winter 18-19 period, that would leave 9 months to realise the increase.
I reckon the airport would need 8 180-seater rotations (in and out, so 16 movements) a day from April 2019 to see the pax numbers predicted. One rotation every two hours with an A320 from somewhere.

While the aircraft movements may be achievable, I don't see how the car parking availability could cope with a sudden increase of that magnitude, the car parks are fairly full at the moment. Plus terminal capacity, security etc. It would be a big jump from today's operation.

What I now think has happened is that the surface access strategy, looking at it, was written last year when the current masterplan was in the design stage, having been hinted at back then by Dave Lees. There may then have been delays in publishing the masterplan, so the plans for airport expansion have all been subsequently delayed too. I think they may have been planning to begin the expansion this winter, starting with the runway extension, and then see either a loco base or a large increase in inbound routes in 2019.
As it's worked out, I think time may be too short to see the work get completed as it may have originally been envisaged, and so in my view we're much more likely to see expansion of the sort predicted in the surface access strategy happen in 2020, assuming they actually build the runway extension.

More worthless speculation from me, sorry if anyone's time has been wasted reading this!
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Old 24th Sep 2018, 01:28
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Originally Posted by The Nutts Mutts
Coming back to the passenger number predictions from the surface access strategy, I've done some back-of-a-fag-packet maths.
2018 is predicted to be 2.1mppa.
2019 is predicted to be 2.9mppa.

Where will the 800k extra pax come from?
Being generous and giving Lolo 100k pax over the peak summer months for their expanded programme, that leaves 700k to find.
Assuming nothing new happens for the remainder of the winter 18-19 period, that would leave 9 months to realise the increase.
I reckon the airport would need 8 180-seater rotations (in and out, so 16 movements) a day from April 2019 to see the pax numbers predicted. One rotation every two hours with an A320 from somewhere.

While the aircraft movements may be achievable, I don't see how the car parking availability could cope with a sudden increase of that magnitude, the car parks are fairly full at the moment. Plus terminal capacity, security etc. It would be a big jump from today's operation.

What I now think has happened is that the surface access strategy, looking at it, was written last year when the current masterplan was in the design stage, having been hinted at back then by Dave Lees. There may then have been delays in publishing the masterplan, so the plans for airport expansion have all been subsequently delayed too. I think they may have been planning to begin the expansion this winter, starting with the runway extension, and then see either a loco base or a large increase in inbound routes in 2019.
As it's worked out, I think time may be too short to see the work get completed as it may have originally been envisaged, and so in my view we're much more likely to see expansion of the sort predicted in the surface access strategy happen in 2020, assuming they actually build the runway extension.

More worthless speculation from me, sorry if anyone's time has been wasted reading this!
I think this is a very well considered summary of the possible outcome tbh. The pax forecast for 2018 reveals your exact point. They are on course for 2m by the skin of their teeth (Not 2.1m) so the forecast is already 100k behind. That will quickly gather momentum if nothing new for S19 is confirmed soon.

No way can any of the planned work in this masterplan be completed by 2019, how fast can they realistically get planning permission and then complete construction? Even 2020 may be pushing it.

Question - Doesn't the current terminal with all it's limitations have a maximum capacity of 3m? I think I read that somewhere sometime. However it is pretty damn cramped even now from the passenger journey perspective.
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Old 24th Sep 2018, 08:05
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Originally Posted by shamrock7seal
I think this is a very well considered summary of the possible outcome tbh. The pax forecast for 2018 reveals your exact point. They are on course for 2m by the skin of their teeth (Not 2.1m) so the forecast is already 100k behind. That will quickly gather momentum if nothing new for S19 is confirmed soon.

No way can any of the planned work in this masterplan be completed by 2019, how fast can they realistically get planning permission and then complete construction? Even 2020 may be pushing it.

Question - Doesn't the current terminal with all it's limitations have a maximum capacity of 3m? I think I read that somewhere sometime. However it is pretty damn cramped even now from the passenger journey perspective.
My take on possible timescales - stand re-configuration could happen quickly ie 5 down to 4 with stand 1 being kept for the time being as this is where terminal expansion will happen, 2-5 converted to 3 A320 size ready for ops. With the consultation not due to expire until end October and then the ratification of the plan, actual planning being submitted wouldn't be until early 2019. By the time this hopefully gets the green light, we will be in to S19 peak season and cannot see any major disruption at this point. Therefore we are realistically looking at W19 for runway extension, taxiway and car parks to be constructed with a LCC commencing in April/May 2020 ready for summer season. Of course all this if anything could happen sooner or later and this forum has been talking long and hard for many years in the vain hope!!
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Old 24th Sep 2018, 15:38
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August passenger figures for Skiathos with Fly Lolo show that 376 passengers used the flight on a 97 seat restricted , Flybe E195 . This makes roughly an average of just 47 passengers per flight , 48 % load factor .

Fly Lolo are going to have to improve on these sort of figures if they are going to operate next summer over the peak summer months and increase Southampton s passenger figures , surely ?
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