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Southampton-2

Old 16th May 2020, 08:17
  #2281 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Albert Hall View Post
If they do, recent history suggests there will only be one winner. Loganair are 8-0 up in that grudge match at the moment (I think that's the score anyway!) so it's not obvious why Eastern think they'll win this one and keep fighting. You'd think that out of all of the Flybe routes sitting vacant that they could find something better to do without another fight.
i used to quite often use Flybe from LPL to SOU when they ran it. Popular it was too, several times went on a full BAe 146 on a Sunday afternoon back up to LPL instead of a Dash 8. Tried MAN to SOU, but it takes too.long to get there and get through airport than the flight, so its been the train.
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Old 16th May 2020, 12:49
  #2282 (permalink)  
 
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Adfly's update shows no takers for AMS or CDG as yet although you'd have to think the airport will be working on it.

Perhaps if KLM are operating the Cityhopper Embraers with less frequency to some other UK destinations, there might be some flexibility to come back to SOU?
AMS was a big route for Flybe with 4/5 rotations daily prior to their demise.

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Old 16th May 2020, 14:10
  #2283 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wycombe View Post
Adfly's update shows no takers for AMS or CDG as yet although you'd have to think the airport will be working on it.

Perhaps if KLM are operating the Cityhopper Embraers with less frequency to some other UK destinations, there might be some flexibility to come back to SOU?
AMS was a big route for Flybe with 4/5 rotations daily prior to their demise.
Didn't KLM try it before and pull out because they weren't getting much onward connecting traffic?
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Old 16th May 2020, 16:02
  #2284 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PDXCWL45 View Post
Didn't KLM try it before and pull out because they weren't getting much onward connecting traffic?
They did indeed. I believe the route did well for them point to point, but I guess the connections are what add extra value for KLM, and with AMS being at capacity it probably made sense to re-allocate the hard to find capacity (AMS had reached the slot limit at the time) to a destination where they would get more onward connecting traffic.

However, I would argue that the situation in the next few months as traffic begins to recover would look somewhat more favourable should they choose to restart AMS-SOU.

- Flybe are no longer flying 4-5 daily flights in competition so they will have 100% of the market rather than ~30-35%.
- Overall demand for air travel is down so the AMS slot situation will have relaxed for the time being.
- I believe the Dutch Govt has also given permission for AMS to grow from 500k to 540k annual ATM's as long as they can achieve their targeted reduction in emissions at the same time. This further lessens any slot concerns in the longer term.
- With slots available KLM could serve AMS-SOU 3x daily, possibly with an overnight stopping aircraft, and this may stimulate additional onward connection demand through offering more and potentially faster options from having the extra frequency.

Will be an interesting one to watch.
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Old 16th May 2020, 19:11
  #2285 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by adfly View Post
They did indeed. I believe the route did well for them point to point, but I guess the connections are what add extra value for KLM, and with AMS being at capacity it probably made sense to re-allocate the hard to find capacity (AMS had reached the slot limit at the time) to a destination where they would get more onward connecting traffic.

However, I would argue that the situation in the next few months as traffic begins to recover would look somewhat more favourable should they choose to restart AMS-SOU.

- Flybe are no longer flying 4-5 daily flights in competition so they will have 100% of the market rather than ~30-35%.
- Overall demand for air travel is down so the AMS slot situation will have relaxed for the time being.
- I believe the Dutch Govt has also given permission for AMS to grow from 500k to 540k annual ATM's as long as they can achieve their targeted reduction in emissions at the same time. This further lessens any slot concerns in the longer term.
- With slots available KLM could serve AMS-SOU 3x daily, possibly with an overnight stopping aircraft, and this may stimulate additional onward connection demand through offering more and potentially faster options from having the extra frequency.

Will be an interesting one to watch.
I think this is just wishful thinking at best,KLM gave Southampton a try and it didn't work out to there likeing,they are added to long list of airlines that have given SOU a go in what was a hugely different pre Covid 19 world. The best SOU can hopeful is some sort of limited regional links ,but even these will be challenging to airlines with the virus still prevelant.I can't see the Runway extension application progressing,it just doesn't make sense,especially with limited holidays abroad being accessible down the road at Bournemouth ,where Ryanair are about to resume to multiple European destinations.
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Old 16th May 2020, 20:28
  #2286 (permalink)  
 
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KLM found that there wasn't enough long-haul connecting traffic from Southampton given its proximity to Heathrow. That hasn't changed. I'd be surprised if they come back even after Flybe's departure and would think you're more likely to see them adding capacity in BHX and MAN and perhaps even landing in EXT and EMA ahead of SOU-AMS, I'm afraid.
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Old 16th May 2020, 21:06
  #2287 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by allan1987 View Post
Eastern Airways announced SOU - NCL soon as flybe went in administration and started flights from SOU - NCL on 9th March x11 a week
Loganair announced SOU - NCL soon as flybe went in administration and started flights from SOU - NCL on 23rd March x18 a week

cant see both staying on same route
Yet seat capacity will remain similar to what Flybe offered last summer.
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Old 16th May 2020, 21:10
  #2288 (permalink)  
 
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Not really sure what that has to do with it. Demand certainly won't be at the same levels as last summer given all that's going on!
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Old 18th May 2020, 15:11
  #2289 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GrahamK View Post
Yet seat capacity will remain similar to what Flybe offered last summer.
Seat capacity may be the same but I guarantee you air fares will be higher and therefore potential passengers and load factors will be lower. And that doesn't even take into account the effect of COVID-19.

Seriously if any of these routes are to be sustainable in the long-term they have to be operated by the likes of easyJet or similar for them to work.
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Old 18th May 2020, 15:21
  #2290 (permalink)  
 
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Sustainability is relative though as fewer passengers at higher fares (as per Loganair/Eastern's business model) may work out just fine.
Equally, both will benefit from lower costs in relation to aircraft ownership/crew T&C's.
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Old 18th May 2020, 16:45
  #2291 (permalink)  
 
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Seat capacity may be the same but I guarantee you air fares will be higher and therefore potential passengers and load factors will be lower.
Of course they will. It's a statement of the bleedin' obvious, surely - Flybe has gone bust having consistently sold 10 notes for a fiver.

If your view is that these types of routes will only work with an easyJet-style business model, then there are going to be a lot of unserved routes in the future then. To sustain their minimum unit size - rapidly rising towards 180 seats - with a twice daily frequency then you generate around 225,000 seats annually. You need to grow the market by 60% versus the Flybe historics to achieve typical LCC load factors on that. The Flybe pricing was low - too low to be sustainable. easyJet might be able to achieve the price point but simply won't get the volume.

The ongoing debate about easyJet at SOU is quite fanciful. The rumours are of a couple of smaller UK base closures coming up. It would be surprising if they want to open any new smaller bases of the nature that SOU would inevitably be - even if they were thinking about expansion at the moment.
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Old 18th May 2020, 18:51
  #2292 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Albert Hall View Post
Of course they will. It's a statement of the bleedin' obvious, surely - Flybe has gone bust having consistently sold 10 notes for a fiver.

If your view is that these types of routes will only work with an easyJet-style business model, then there are going to be a lot of unserved routes in the future then. To sustain their minimum unit size - rapidly rising towards 180 seats - with a twice daily frequency then you generate around 225,000 seats annually. You need to grow the market by 60% versus the Flybe historics to achieve typical LCC load factors on that. The Flybe pricing was low - too low to be sustainable. easyJet might be able to achieve the price point but simply won't get the volume.

The ongoing debate about easyJet at SOU is quite fanciful. The rumours are of a couple of smaller UK base closures coming up. It would be surprising if they want to open any new smaller bases of the nature that SOU would inevitably be - even if they were thinking about expansion at the moment.
There is no chance of Easy or any LCC operation in the short term future. With the challenging covid 19 on going for an indefinite time the best SOU can hope for is a limited UK operation ,with the airport operating at restricted hours and with very limited investment.Those contributors who keep sprouting KLM ,Easy return are living in cloud cuckoo land!
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Old 18th May 2020, 21:29
  #2293 (permalink)  
 
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Looks as though Blue Islands will be launching a 3 daily MAN-SOU route from the 29th June, same day they start 2x daily MAN-EXT. All with ATR72.
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Old 18th May 2020, 21:53
  #2294 (permalink)  
 
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Because Southampton needs a third domestic route with two carriers on in this time... who do we reckon will win out on this one?
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Old 19th May 2020, 08:33
  #2295 (permalink)  
 
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Looks as though Blue Islands will be launching a 3 daily MAN-SOU route from the 29th June
Surely to pick up a route that (as far as we know) isn't covered, eg, AMS, would make more sense?
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Old 19th May 2020, 11:33
  #2296 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Albert Hall View Post
Of course they will. It's a statement of the bleedin' obvious, surely - Flybe has gone bust having consistently sold 10 notes for a fiver.

If your view is that these types of routes will only work with an easyJet-style business model, then there are going to be a lot of unserved routes in the future then. To sustain their minimum unit size - rapidly rising towards 180 seats - with a twice daily frequency then you generate around 225,000 seats annually. You need to grow the market by 60% versus the Flybe historics to achieve typical LCC load factors on that. The Flybe pricing was low - too low to be sustainable. easyJet might be able to achieve the price point but simply won't get the volume.

The ongoing debate about easyJet at SOU is quite fanciful. The rumours are of a couple of smaller UK base closures coming up. It would be surprising if they want to open any new smaller bases of the nature that SOU would inevitably be - even if they were thinking about expansion at the moment.
Relentless negativity, its a wonder you even bother to wake up in the morning with that attitude.

I'm sure your location of Dorset has nothing to do with your prejudices..........
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Old 19th May 2020, 11:39
  #2297 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Wycombe View Post
Surely to pick up a route that (as far as we know) isn't covered, eg, AMS, would make more sense?
To be honest its a much safer bet especially if they are going to serve MAN from EXT. They are a very cautious airline and last I heard were for sale so any expansion is a surprise. T3 have always been a push over, as they simply cannot compete on fares. Expect them to disappear from MAN and NCL. AMS will be reserved for EZY, if 233k people fly paying BE fares, imagine how many would fly with EZY.
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Old 19th May 2020, 12:24
  #2298 (permalink)  
 
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Rivet Joint, you're absolutely correct - Dorset has nothing to do with my statements. It's merely trying to put a dose of reality about the current market conditions into this thread which is off in the realms of deepest fantasy. At no time have I suggested that BOH would be any different, so this isn't a BOH -v- SOU discussion. It's about the prospects of easyJet setting up shop - in the middle of the biggest downturn in living memory - at an airport at which they currently don't have a base when the market there has never demonstrated the ability to generate the big volumes that would be needed to sustain that business. You could substitute SOU for ABZ, DSA, BOH or many others in the debate - all would be the same flight of fancy.

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Old 19th May 2020, 12:37
  #2299 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Albert Hall View Post
Rivet Joint, you're absolutely correct - Dorset has nothing to do with my statements. It's merely trying to put a dose of reality about the current market conditions into this thread which is off in the realms of deepest fantasy. At no time have I suggested that BOH would be any different, so this isn't a BOH -v- SOU discussion. It's about the prospects of easyJet setting up shop - in the middle of the biggest downturn in living memory - at an airport at which they currently don't have a base when the market there has never demonstrated the ability to generate the big volumes that would be needed to sustain that business. You could substitute SOU for ABZ, DSA, BOH or many others in the debate - all would be the same flight of fancy.
Basing for EZY may not be an option currently but AMS has its own base and could service SOU twice daily, thus generating comparable footfall to that of BE and KLM historically. If EZY were going to trial anything from SOU, this will surely be the way to go in the short term at least!
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Old 19th May 2020, 12:46
  #2300 (permalink)  
 
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For reasons many fold no doubt, BOH has always, and likely will continue to be mainly a package holiday airport.
Scheduled and lo-co services trying out new destinations have come, gone and went, fact is really only flights to the C.I's stay the course, and even that traffic is mainly seasonal.
BOH is bucket & spade and long may it continue - SOU has nothing to fear.

OTOH prior to Flybe going and Covid-19 arriving ---
SOU and EXT both did see decent regional connectivity, with business traffic too.
Plus we did have long haul connections possible with DUB, CDG and AMS (although KLM ditched their SOU-AMS not that long ago)

As for the future of SOU ?
Well.....What to do?

Come back here in 12 months time for a re-think.




PS I'm in Dorset too!
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