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Newcastle-9

Old 27th Oct 2017, 17:53
  #141 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
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HH6702, TCX already have regular flights from Manchester, Stansted and Glasgow to Las Vegas

SWBKCB, Orlando and Cancun are 1.5 weekly. Alternating fortnightly flights to each alongside the existing weekly flights.

The Dash could do Newcastle, but I think if it were to happen it would be a half arsed attempt for both sides. How is 3.5 hours on a Dash 8, across the Atlantic, supposed to be remotely competitive?

Re: EZY vs TOM vs FI MAX...
- TUI would operate 2 flights a week, seasonally, mainly sold as packages at an affordable price. Aimed 100% at the UK leisure market. Well known brand, reputable, reliable
- easyJet would probably operate 2/3 flights per week, varying seasonally, at low prices. They would cater to tourists both from the UK and Iceland. They may also sell some seats for package operators and cater to whatever small business market there is. Again, very well known in the UK and if people can bag flights for 50 quid, they'll probably consider it
- Icelandair... In order to be at all competitive would require an absolute minimum of 3/4 flights a week. In the 70-100 seat segment this may be sustainable, but on 160+ seat aircraft, charging high fares, this is unlikely to be sustainable. Icelandair would seem to make the most sense because they would cater to both inbound and outbound tourism, TATL connecting traffic, stopovers, business (very limited) and they also offer packages, but you're looking at paying £250-500 per person for return flights to Reykjavik... We know from United that this kind of sh*t doesn't go down well in geordieland

I can't see a fortnightly package holiday flight making that much of a dint in Emirates' performance from Newcastle. If anything it might help create some slack, emptying seats in the peak months for more lucrative passengers to fill! Emirates loses hundreds of thousands of passengers to competitors both at NCL and nearby airports anyway
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Old 27th Oct 2017, 19:34
  #142 (permalink)  
 
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TUI 787 Dreamliner G-TUIC operating a final IBZ-NCL of the season Tonight.

Last edited by LiamNCL; 27th Oct 2017 at 21:26.
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Old 29th Oct 2017, 09:03
  #143 (permalink)  
 
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New route announcements are very sparse for 2018. Is anything expected from Ryanair or EasyJet....or even the long awaited extention of the Stavanger route to Bergen?
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Old 29th Oct 2017, 16:54
  #144 (permalink)  
 
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I certainly wont be holding my breath, if I'm honest
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Old 30th Oct 2017, 07:02
  #145 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
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Originally Posted by Jamesair View Post
New route announcements are very sparse for 2018. Is anything expected from Ryanair or EasyJet....or even the long awaited extention of the Stavanger route to Bergen?
Wouldn't be surprised if Ryanair don't add anything However I think EasyJet might announce something possibly 2 or 3 Routes to their bases in Europe (hoping for Lisbon
Milan&Venice)
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Old 31st Oct 2017, 23:20
  #146 (permalink)  
 
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Upon this very long argued vision of Thailand.

I'm from Newcastle and flew their via Dubai 3x within the last 5 years. On every one of those flights coming back, there was another person from the North East of England.

It would, however, make more sense that tour operators looked into places such as Phuket and Koh Samui.

I think Hua Hin would be viable but after Phuket and Koh Samui are set up.

Chiang Mai and Pattaya are high in tourist numbers but I don't think would be viable for tourism. Especially as Chiang Mai airport's airport is small and Pattaya isn't close to an airport itself.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 09:18
  #147 (permalink)  
 
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DUS

LGW (thatís the guys that used to operate the Q400s for Air Berlin) will be operating the DUS on certain days with the dash for the next month at least.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 10:06
  #148 (permalink)  
 
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"On every one of those flights coming back, there was another person from the North East of England. "

I think they're going to need more than 2 pax a flight to make it work........ no, but seriosuly, use of longer range small airbus and the 787/A350 for longer flights should open up a lot of city pairs not currently served - it may eventually happen

the question is how many long-haul holidays can the NE generate a year?
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 10:19
  #149 (permalink)  
 
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Probably not enough to sustain the volumes need to make routes like these work. I'd love to be proved wrong though...
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 11:36
  #150 (permalink)  
 
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Access to Koh Samui is also, I believe, very tightly controlled by Bangkok Airways. Also it's really only suitable for regional ops certainly not for long haul.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 17:16
  #151 (permalink)  
 
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The numbers going to/via Dubai have been pretty stable for years at around 230,000 pax a year

In 2007 the airport had around 5.7 mm pax - cp 4.8 mm last year - so you could argue that there is easily another 900,000 pax out there - but a new long haul airliner would have to take over 25% of that extra demand to make it work I guess - that's a big ask
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 18:06
  #152 (permalink)  
 
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I wonder if there is a breakdown somewhere of the 5.7m pax in 2007. It will be interesting to see routes and pax numbers at that time.
I would suggest potential is much higher than another 900,000 quoted, as the region has since grown in population. We have endured a recession over recent years, which has hit growth, but it was estimated at the time of the Masterplan, the Airport would reach 8m pax by 2025.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 19:14
  #153 (permalink)  
 
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2007 CAA stats

Airport Total pax
HEATHROW 495,366
AMSTERDAM 334,254
PALMA 298,604
STANSTED 297,882
ALICANTE 254,099
MALAGA 253,360
BRISTOL 246,808
PARIS CDG 234,370
DUBLIN 227,066
BELFAST INTER 224,565
TENERIFE 187,771
FARO 139,811
GATWICK 109,649
DALAMAN 95,255
BARCELONA 95,196
PRAGUE 90,244
MURCIA 87,623
LAS PALMAS 72,117
PAPHOS 72,058
ROME (CIAMPINO) 71,847
KRAKOW 67,316
IBIZA 66,531
ARRECIFE 61,880
CORFU 60,718
GERONA 57,800
EXETER 56,150
SHARM EL SHEIKH 54,900
BODRUM (MILAS) 50,632
NICE 49,867
FUERTEVENTURA 48,531
MAHON 47,575
LARNACA 44,246
DUBAI 44,139
HERAKLION 42,649
GENEVA 41,743
RHODES 40,404
CORK 38,968
BRUSSELS 38,958
BERGAMO 38,580
ZAKINTHOS 38,064
BELFAST CITY 37,208
HANOVER 32,470
REUS 31,494
MONASTIR 30,995
MALTA 26,039
BURGAS 25,437
ANTALYA 24,834
BIRMINGHAM 24,169
ABERDEEN 21,826
DUSSELDORF 20,760
BERGEN 20,486
KOS 19,293
COPENHAGEN 18,891
SANFORD 18,621
PISA 18,308
PUERTO PLATA 16,704
CARDIFF WALES 16,110
SALZBURG 14,123
FUNCHAL 14,105
VERONA 13,244
STAVANGER 13,086
VALENCIA 12,089
NAPLES 11,525
SANDEFJORD(TORP) 10,311
SALONIKA 9,982
ALMERIA 9,529
THIRA (SANTORINI) 7,905
LUXOR 7,695
TORONTO 7,558
CHAMBERY 6,900
ISLE OF MAN 6,876
SKIATHOS 6,661
GALWAY 6,650
KEFALLINIA 5,965
HAMILTON (CANADA) 5,941
INNSBRUCK 5,674
IZMIR 5,568
JERSEY 4,537
PLOVDIV 4,375
TURIN 3,179
LIMOGES 3,000
VARNA 2,898
VENICE 2,193
ROVANIEMI 2,015
GRENOBLE 913
KITTILA 878
TARBES-LOURDES 731
LONDON CITY 685
ALGHERO/SASSARI 668
ENONTEKIO 470
KEFLAVIK 321
OSTEND 293
SPLIT 267
MANCHESTER 185
BLACKPOOL 177
HAMBURG 136
LUTON 131
BRIDGETOWN 123
COLOGNE (BONN) 101
ATHENS 92
GENOA 87
AALBORG 79
BASLE MULHOUSE 72
BILLUND 64
LINZ 60
FARNBOROUGH 41
AUGSBURG 39
LILLE 39
GRAZ 36
INVERNESS 36
MADRID 33
MOLDE 24
TOTAL 5,491,606

Last edited by SWBKCB; 2nd Nov 2017 at 21:38.
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 21:23
  #154 (permalink)  
 
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Well that's probably not too unusual given the fixed number of seats on offer & the high LF's !

Bit of a vicious circle, airport facilities incapable of A380, so would be a big jump to 773's 2x daily.

Conjecture only, but it's probably a no brainer that an A380 would have been on the cards IF NCL had the facilities to handle it ?
I am presuming that runway restrictions rule this out?, and as such nothing is going to change....
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 23:01
  #155 (permalink)  
 
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I would thought EK will add a few evening flights first on busy days before going 2x daily
Maybe 10/11 flights per week to start off with
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Old 2nd Nov 2017, 23:10
  #156 (permalink)  
 
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A material chunk of the difference between 2007 and 2016 is the lack of the flight to Stansted, which is perhaps a sobering reminder of just how dicey life is for a regional airport in the UK.
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Old 3rd Nov 2017, 00:22
  #157 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
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Interesting to see how markets have developed over the last 10 years... Some of it's surprising how much we've lost in terms of passenger numbers, routes and charters... For example:

Destination, 2007 - 2016
-Heathrow, 495,366 - 499,479 (stable, but there must have been HUGE leak onto the trains considering LGW/STN were dropped!)
-Amsterdam, 334,254 - 363,690 (peaked more when EZY were on the route)
-Palma, 298,604 - 257,176 (might come back up to near 300 thousand next year with FR on the route)
-Stansted, 297,882 - Dropped
-Bristol, 246,808 - 164,595 (*Best not mention this one, it can get heated!)
-Paris, 234,370 - 148,784 (I believe CDG will have been EZY on their 737's and Brit Air CRJ 700's at the time)
-Dublin, 227,066 - 232,538 (huge growth recently, there must have been a considerable drop on NCL-DUB around the turn of the decade)
-Belfast, 224,565 - 250,418 (One of the more stable routes, probably the same 30,000 people that used to go to Belfast City)
- Gatwick, 109,649 - Dropped

- Prague, 90,244 - 26,194
- Murcia, 87,623 - 19,355
- Krakow, 67,316 - 27,196
- Rome, 71,847 - 17,744 (all 4 of these have gone from multiple weekly frequencies on EZY's 737 700's to x2 weekly on Jet2's 737 300's - Both of which have 148 seats if you're interested - EZY must have already dropped Budapest, Copenhagen and Berlin by 2007, I assume? )

- Brussels, 38,958 - 19,431 (SN RJ100 to BM E135 I believe?)
- Dusseldorf, 20,760 - 41,630 (Surprising result! Wasn't DUS twice daily at some point with the CRJ?)
- Orlando, 18,621 - 17,453 (Back when we had a MON A330 and TOM 767 every week - interesting that there are no figures for Cancun, 2007... Was it not operated that year?)
- Stavanger, 13,086 - 6,587 (WF, Dash 8 - BM, ERJ135)

- Copenhagen, 18,891 - 22,371 (Cimber Air, CRJ 200 - SAS, CRJ 900 - Dropped 10/17)
- Bergamo, 38,580 - Dropped (almost 40k and nobody's taken a second look since FR swapped us out for Manchester)
- Belfast City, 37,208 - Dropped (Back again on the Jetstreams)
- Hanover, 32,470 - Dropped (2007 was about the time of the transfer from HLX to TUI on the Hanover route wasn't it? After HLX's other routes to Cologne, Hamburg and Munich went under - If I remember correctly)
- Bergen, 20,486 - Dropped
- Birmingham, 24,169 - Dropped
- Puerto Plata, 16,704 - Dropped (I never knew Puerto Plata was operated from NCL, I thought it was just Punta Cana. I assume this was a TOM 767?)
- Valencia, 12,089 - Dropped (I never knew we had a route to VLC either! Who operated it?)
- Torp, 10,331 - Dropped (Just add to the list of Oslo airports we no longer have service to!)
- Thessaloniki, 9,982 - Dropped (hope it pays up for LS and TOM next year)
- Luxor, 7,695 - Dropped ( another route I never knew we had! XL I assume? They were adventurous)
- Toronto, 7558 - Dropped
- Izmir, 5,568 - Dropped (We had this too?? XL?)
- Plovdiv, 4,375 - Dropped (another one! Was this XL or Balkan?)
- Varna, 2,898 - Dropped (I knew this was somewhere down the line, but not the operator... XL/BH?)
- Venice, 2,193 (These were charters I assume, too early for Jet2... But a considerable amount of passengers)
- London City, 685 - Dropped ( The first 2 months of Eastern's ill fated LCY service, IIRC. Wrong airline, wrong aircraft, wrong business model...)
- Alghero, 668 (again, must have been charters, but somewhere I never knew we had service too - Sardinia is a bugger to try and get to!)

- Hamilton, 5,941 - Dropped (were these troop charters? Seems like an awful lot of passengers! Another odd one that I didn't know about/can't understand why it ever happened! It wasn't one of those oddball Flyglobespan routes was it? I know they did a few routes to Hamilton but I never thought from Newcastle...)

It's good to see that routes like Almeria, Thessaloniki and Santorini have come back online, or will be. Were Thessaloniki and Santorini XL routes?

I think a x4 weekly evening flight from Emirates, about 8-10 months of the year, is the best we can hope for in the immediate future.

Maybe one day we'll be a Cat F airport...
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Old 3rd Nov 2017, 00:37
  #158 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NCL-TRC View Post
LGW (thatís the guys that used to operate the Q400s for Air Berlin) will be operating the DUS on certain days with the dash for the next month at least.
Looking on the website it seems to be the Dash Q400 on the route until at least January. Also, the route is now only operating 5 times weekly, the Tuesday rotation is no longer operating in the winter.
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Old 3rd Nov 2017, 07:50
  #159 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
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Wow very interesting information there EK777WNCL

surprised by a few there and a shame others have picked up the route.
Maybe just shows about yields vs pax numbers
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Old 3rd Nov 2017, 12:20
  #160 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
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Valencia was Jet2
Hamilton was Globespan
Izmir was Thomas Cook
Luxor was Thomson
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