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Old 9th Aug 2018, 20:13
  #1861 (permalink)  
 
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I hope you're right CS. The idea of my favourite UK hotel - The Headland, overlooking the rocky outcrop at the north end of Fistral Bay - once again less than an hour's flight from SEN, fills my heart with joy.

From the hopeless stagnation of a couple of years ago, even the fiercest critics of Stobart seem to accept that the airport is very much on the up, and I for one cannot wait to discover what next year may bring.

Yes, there are serious reasons for criticism - not least the struggles of Stobart Air to deliver their timetable - but who can now doubt that the airport has s bright future, and isn't that a minor miracle?
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Old 9th Aug 2018, 20:26
  #1862 (permalink)  
 
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Good omens abound

It seems the money invested (losses accrued) in Stobart running their own airline from their own airport is paying dividends. They prove the route, and take the corresponding start-up losses, and then a bigger carrier comes in and takes a fully developed route for free . Interim results due out 3rd week of October. Most probably too early to show a profit from aviation activity but a reduction in the losses will signal a brighter future.
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Old 9th Aug 2018, 21:30
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As an avid reader and admirer of your posts, asdf1234, I have to ask are you becoming a convert to the Stobart way, or are you just a big softie at heart, with your business nous sweep aside with the emotion generated by a dying airport's truly miraculous renaissance?
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Old 9th Aug 2018, 22:37
  #1864 (permalink)  
 
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Budapest

Wasn't the whole point of the Stobart ATR operation to prove that the routes were viable, and to attract larger airlines on to them?
Originally Posted by Expressflight View Post
That's exactly right and it does seem to be working.
I am somewhat confused here - wasn't the comment or topic related to the Budapest announcement?

If it was in general then fair enough but if relation to Budapest isn't the aircraft the 195 (or should have been most times) and if so doesn't the CAA figures show that they would more than likely scare any airline away rather than encourage competition in respect of Budapest?

2017 CAA stats show 13299 passengers in total with the punctuality stats showing Flybe operated 172 sectors and Stobart 34 which is 206 sectors making the average passenger figure 65 per flight and using 118 seats equals a load factor of 55%.

Even if you convert the 13299 pax into 12 months (I believe this is from May 17) it is only around 23000 passengers and at twice a week it equates to 110 pax per flight which sounds very light on an A319 and nowhere near easyjets fleet-wide average. Naturally easyjet's competitive pricing will add several thousand passengers to start with and indeed it might work out for them (and no doubt will in the early days) but hardly a guaranteed success and I would say the Stobart's figures flag up massive warnings rather than a goldmine.

If some of my figures are wide of the mark please let me know but I have used the CAA actuals for passenger figures and the punctuality stats for the number of sectors although I have no idea if the 195 operated all the sectors.

Just my thoughts

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Old 10th Aug 2018, 08:13
  #1865 (permalink)  
 
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Pete, the stats donít tell the full story. The programme for 2017 went on sale quite late and loads suffered as a result.

This year figures are looking much improved, the overall average for the Embraer routes on the last set of figures was about 63% although that was dragged down by Glasgow which is quite weak and quite frequent making up about 17% of all flights. The last set of figures for Budapest specifically was around 90 per flight (76%) which isnít bad at all, as you note fares tend to be higher than EZY and awareness not as strong.
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Old 10th Aug 2018, 10:04
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1 View Post
This year figures are looking much improved, the overall average for the Embraer routes on the last set of figures was about 63% although that was dragged down by Glasgow which is quite weak and quite frequent making up about 17% of all flights. The last set of figures for Budapest specifically was around 90 per flight (76%) which isn’t bad at all, as you note fares tend to be higher than EZY and awareness not as strong.
I would expect the July figures for the E195 operation to average 70%-plus overall and around 75% if GLA is excluded.
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Old 10th Aug 2018, 12:28
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It looks as though GLA might be going. All fares from the end of October are a standard £130 return, whereas up until then they are variable and generally around £40-£60.

The standard base fare for MAN has risen to £90 from £60, although that is with immediate effect so really praying thatís not being dropped as well. It was through going to book MAN that I found this out.
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Old 10th Aug 2018, 12:39
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Further update - there seem to be other changes going on. Milan isnít showing at all after November, Prague is greyed out as full on Tue/Wed/Thu and Cologne is showing at a new earlier time of 08:20 on an E195. That means one of two things - either a fourth E195 or the loss of something else (GLA). Rennes is now on an E195 at new times on Mon, Thu and Fri.

At present one E195 does nothing after 4pm each day and another after 6pm. So scope for two new routes, or perhaps GLA to be retained once daily. I

Last edited by AirportPlanner1; 10th Aug 2018 at 12:58.
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Old 11th Aug 2018, 15:34
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More delays

The late afternoon Malaga flight cancelled today and as a result check-in and bag drop is pretty raucous. Lots of unhappy punters who have been told to go home. Lyon is 3 hours late . I can't help think that when RYR turn up this little airport is going to be horrible overcrowded . It is comfortably full right now with only 3 flights on the departure board .
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Old 11th Aug 2018, 16:01
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Originally Posted by asdf1234 View Post
The late afternoon Malaga flight cancelled today and as a result check-in and bag drop is pretty raucous. Lots of unhappy punters who have been told to go home. Lyon is 3 hours late . I can't help think that when RYR turn up this little airport is going to be horrible overcrowded . It is comfortably full right now with only 3 flights on the departure board .
Due to "crew welfare issues"
So the inbound flight from Palma lands 90 mins late.
Why does such a shortish delay have to affect subsequent flights? Don't they have enough crews available?

Last edited by tophat27dt; 11th Aug 2018 at 16:13.
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Old 11th Aug 2018, 16:36
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Originally Posted by asdf1234 View Post
The late afternoon Malaga flight cancelled today and as a result check-in and bag drop is pretty raucous. Lots of unhappy punters who have been told to go home. Lyon is 3 hours late . I can't help think that when RYR turn up this little airport is going to be horrible overcrowded . It is comfortably full right now with only 3 flights on the departure board .
I wouldnít worry most of Ryanairís flights get cancelled anyway I think enough local people have heard the horror stories of Ryanair cancellations leaving families stranded for days with no hotels or food then offering £85 compensation weeks later after being forced to spend 100ís on hotels and alternative flights, they are a total joke of an airline.
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Old 11th Aug 2018, 17:14
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EasyJet have cancelled a few recently from LTN as well due to crew welfare issues.
In fact Lisbon is cancelled tonight.
I suspect they are running close to max on crewing in general.
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Old 11th Aug 2018, 20:10
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Are any of the Flybe/(Stobart Air) scheduled for 2019 confirmed or loaded? I cannot seem to find any. I'm not convinced that there are plans for such with effect from Ryanair's arrival on the scene. No case for Dublin, I'd have thought.

And of course Flybe will take back the IOM routes that Stobart have been operating on its behalf. Carlisle is also for Loganair (an ex Flybe franchisee), I'm most intereseted to see the S19 plans for the fleet, particularly the 195's...
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Old 11th Aug 2018, 20:53
  #1874 (permalink)  
 
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Crew Welfare / FTL maxed out

Originally Posted by Falcon666 View Post
EasyJet have cancelled a few recently from LTN as well due to crew welfare issues.
In fact Lisbon is cancelled tonight.
I suspect they are running close to max on crewing in general.
Can't confirm this but I'm led to believe that the only available Captain on stand-by at SEN run out of time hence the cancellation of the afternoon Malaga flight. This will happen this time of year when crews are stretched due to holidays etc... Very sad however for the pax who can't get to their holiday destination unless they pay for replacement flights.
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Old 12th Aug 2018, 08:43
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Originally Posted by EI-BUD View Post
Are any of the Flybe/(Stobart Air) scheduled for 2019 confirmed or loaded? I cannot seem to find any. I'm not convinced that there are plans for such with effect from Ryanair's arrival on the scene. No case for Dublin, I'd have thought.
The Stobart Air routes up until June 2019 will be bookable on the Flybe website on 16th August.

Regarding the cancellation of flights due to crewing problems, this seems much more prevalent countrywide this summer than I can remember previously. Maybe it's just getting more widely reported this year.
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Old 12th Aug 2018, 09:02
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Originally Posted by Expressflight View Post
The Stobart Air routes up until June 2019 will be bookable on the Flybe website on 16th August.

Regarding the cancellation of flights due to crewing problems, this seems much more prevalent countrywide this summer than I can remember previously. Maybe it's just getting more widely reported this year.
I think there's two issues causing this, firstly rostering being tight, secondly and more worryingly, there may be evidence of a drop-off in people choosing to pursue a career to ATPL levels due to costs involved and salary levels and job uncertainty, not to mention the very poor work / family life balance. There are countless professions out there providing salary levels and much higher work / family life balances which are way better than those on offer to commercial airline pilots. The fully autonomously passenger flight is not too far away from becoming a reality, the world and tech are changing all around us, and at an increasingly rapid pace of change and innovation.
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Old 12th Aug 2018, 10:13
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Originally Posted by asdf1234 View Post
Can't confirm this but I'm led to believe that the only available Captain on stand-by at SEN run out of time hence the cancellation of the afternoon Malaga flight.
I assume that Captain must be domiciled some distance from SEN otherwise it would have been more sensible to leave him on standby at home. Otherwise if he's at the airport he is already on duty and the clock is ticking.
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Old 12th Aug 2018, 18:10
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I believe some airports, Southend being being one due to short runway length and width, requires specifically trained flight deck crew to operate there.
So maybe Easyjet didn't have replacement available.
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Old 13th Aug 2018, 17:05
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Easy bought in LTN CC to operate the AMS one evening last week.
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Old 13th Aug 2018, 20:35
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requires specifically trained flight deck crew to operate there.
All EZY Captains are narrow runway trained and qualified.
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