Belfast International-2
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February 2018 CAA Stats
In February, BFS handled 382,676 passengers (-5%)
Domestic Routes;
There was impressive growth on the majority of domestic routes, though a couple saw a very modest decline. LGW is the exception, with 35,028 pax lost following Ryanair's cessation of the route.
BHX (+3%), BRS (+3%), EDI (-1%), GLA (-), LGW (-42%), LPL (-2%), LTN (+9%), MAN (+6%), NCL (-2%), STN (+10%)
With regards to LGW; 35,028 pax were lost, but total passenger numbers fell by just 18,820. Thus, BFS recorded an extra 16,208 passengers across the rest of the network.
International Routes;
Three new routes for February offer a mixed picture.
SZG 93% LF
MLA 88% LF
SWF 53% LF
Sun routes continued to grow in February, though we are starting to see a slow down in growth on the three most popular routes - AGP, ALC and FAO.
ACE (+10%), AGP(+7%), ALC (+3%), FAO (-), FUE (+55%), LPA (+10%), TFS (+10%)
Ski routes are a mixed picture; GVA (+20%), LYS (-23%)
It looks like skiers are moving away from Lyon and resorting back to Geneva. LYS passenger numbers have fallen throughout the winter season, and I would not be surprised if easyJet were to axe the route next winter.
There was steady growth in Western European cities, except for Berlin (reduced from x3 to x2 weekly).
AMS (+4%), BGY (+10%), CDG (-), KEF (+4%), SXF (-31%)
As usual, all Central/Eastern European routes saw growth in February.
GDN (+4%), KRK (+1%), VNO (+2%), WMI (+6%), WRO (+5%)
Domestic Routes;
There was impressive growth on the majority of domestic routes, though a couple saw a very modest decline. LGW is the exception, with 35,028 pax lost following Ryanair's cessation of the route.
BHX (+3%), BRS (+3%), EDI (-1%), GLA (-), LGW (-42%), LPL (-2%), LTN (+9%), MAN (+6%), NCL (-2%), STN (+10%)
With regards to LGW; 35,028 pax were lost, but total passenger numbers fell by just 18,820. Thus, BFS recorded an extra 16,208 passengers across the rest of the network.
International Routes;
Three new routes for February offer a mixed picture.
SZG 93% LF
MLA 88% LF
SWF 53% LF
Sun routes continued to grow in February, though we are starting to see a slow down in growth on the three most popular routes - AGP, ALC and FAO.
ACE (+10%), AGP(+7%), ALC (+3%), FAO (-), FUE (+55%), LPA (+10%), TFS (+10%)
Ski routes are a mixed picture; GVA (+20%), LYS (-23%)
It looks like skiers are moving away from Lyon and resorting back to Geneva. LYS passenger numbers have fallen throughout the winter season, and I would not be surprised if easyJet were to axe the route next winter.
There was steady growth in Western European cities, except for Berlin (reduced from x3 to x2 weekly).
AMS (+4%), BGY (+10%), CDG (-), KEF (+4%), SXF (-31%)
As usual, all Central/Eastern European routes saw growth in February.
GDN (+4%), KRK (+1%), VNO (+2%), WMI (+6%), WRO (+5%)
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People are also more likely to travel from their local airport when flying to a leisure destination, and this is compounded by the fact that a large number of passengers are families with young children. Therefore, Aer Lingus would carry relatively fewer NI passengers on their DUB-MCO service than on their business-orientated transatlantic routes.[QUOTE]
A320, interesting comment, not sure that I follow or indeed concur...
A320, interesting comment, not sure that I follow or indeed concur...
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It depends where you're going. If the journey is further than Florida or the East Coast, it would be more feasible to go from Dublin Airport.
The likes of SFO, IAH, are much easier to get to, than stopping off in EWR.
BFS was expensive with United, when it was in service.
The likes of SFO, IAH, are much easier to get to, than stopping off in EWR.
BFS was expensive with United, when it was in service.
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[quote=EI-BUD;10098074]People are also more likely to travel from their local airport when flying to a leisure destination, and this is compounded by the fact that a large number of passengers are families with young children. Therefore, Aer Lingus would carry relatively fewer NI passengers on their DUB-MCO service than on their business-orientated transatlantic routes.
A320, interesting comment, not sure that I follow or indeed concur...
Let's look at two long haul destinations served from both BFS and DUB; New York and Orlando.
New York is a more business-orientated route than Orlando. Yes, there are leisure travellers flying to New York, and there are of course business travellers flying to Orlando, but one is much more likely to be a leisure traveller on a flight to Orlando than on a flight to New York.
So let's look at these leisure passengers flying to Orlando.
Orlando is the gateway to multiple theme parks, and can be considered as a family destination. Yes, couples, friends etc go to Orlando too, but the likelihood is that a flight to Orlando will have a bunch of young kids onboard.
Out of all groups of travellers, families with young children are the most likely to book a package holiday, given that it is the least stressful option, and is the option most likely to cater for the needs of children.
If a family goes into a travel agency in NI and are looking to go to Orlando, the likelihood is that they will book with Virgin Holidays and fly from BFS. Yes, there are other options with TUI, Thomas Cook etc with flights connecting at LGW etc, but for simplicity let's look solely at the choice between flying direct from BFS or DUB. It is highly unlikely that a NI family booking an Orlando package holiday would be routed via DUB.
There are of course people who book their flights and accommodation separately, and thus are free to choose to fly from any route they wish, but compared with other long haul routes such as to NYC, MCO will have a much smaller number of 'do-it-yourself' passengers.
In addition, leisure travellers are less likely to care about the number of weekly/daily flights, meaning the more frequent DUB-MCO service isn't as big a draw for a NI leisure traveller than the more frequent DUB-NYC service is for a NI business traveller.
Therefore, when one compares the likelihood that NI people fly from BFS vs DUB, given the demographics on board, it is more likely that people would choose to fly from BFS than from DUB to MCO, than if flying to NYC, i.e. there are relatively fewer NI passengers flying DUB-MCO than DUB-NYC.
There may of course be more NI people in gross terms flying DUB-MCO than DUB-NYC, but out of the potential pool of passengers, the likelihood that one travels from DUB instead of BFS is lower when flying to MCO instead of NYC.
A320, interesting comment, not sure that I follow or indeed concur...
New York is a more business-orientated route than Orlando. Yes, there are leisure travellers flying to New York, and there are of course business travellers flying to Orlando, but one is much more likely to be a leisure traveller on a flight to Orlando than on a flight to New York.
So let's look at these leisure passengers flying to Orlando.
Orlando is the gateway to multiple theme parks, and can be considered as a family destination. Yes, couples, friends etc go to Orlando too, but the likelihood is that a flight to Orlando will have a bunch of young kids onboard.
Out of all groups of travellers, families with young children are the most likely to book a package holiday, given that it is the least stressful option, and is the option most likely to cater for the needs of children.
If a family goes into a travel agency in NI and are looking to go to Orlando, the likelihood is that they will book with Virgin Holidays and fly from BFS. Yes, there are other options with TUI, Thomas Cook etc with flights connecting at LGW etc, but for simplicity let's look solely at the choice between flying direct from BFS or DUB. It is highly unlikely that a NI family booking an Orlando package holiday would be routed via DUB.
There are of course people who book their flights and accommodation separately, and thus are free to choose to fly from any route they wish, but compared with other long haul routes such as to NYC, MCO will have a much smaller number of 'do-it-yourself' passengers.
In addition, leisure travellers are less likely to care about the number of weekly/daily flights, meaning the more frequent DUB-MCO service isn't as big a draw for a NI leisure traveller than the more frequent DUB-NYC service is for a NI business traveller.
Therefore, when one compares the likelihood that NI people fly from BFS vs DUB, given the demographics on board, it is more likely that people would choose to fly from BFS than from DUB to MCO, than if flying to NYC, i.e. there are relatively fewer NI passengers flying DUB-MCO than DUB-NYC.
There may of course be more NI people in gross terms flying DUB-MCO than DUB-NYC, but out of the potential pool of passengers, the likelihood that one travels from DUB instead of BFS is lower when flying to MCO instead of NYC.
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When United operated the EWR is was cheap enough. Usually on a par with Dub prices. The Biz class was regularly busy although hard to know if they were upgrades or not. The dearest I paid was £750 to LAS over a school holiday. I regularly got Florida connections and other similar length trips between £4-500.
Virgin are pricing themselves out of the game. You can fly from DUB to MCO in American’s Premium cabin for about 3/4 of what VS charge in economy. Virgin’s forward bookings in the shoulder months are grim with virtually no interest in the J cabin and little more in Premium. They’ve just dumbed down their economy product again but kept the prices up. If anything they’ll be scaling back next year, not expanding further. The 747’s retire within 4 years. If they’re still around BFS they’re more likely to be using the 330 than the 350. I’m surprised they didn’t use it in the first place. The 330 makes a lot more sense than a 468 seat Jumbo.
Virgin are pricing themselves out of the game. You can fly from DUB to MCO in American’s Premium cabin for about 3/4 of what VS charge in economy. Virgin’s forward bookings in the shoulder months are grim with virtually no interest in the J cabin and little more in Premium. They’ve just dumbed down their economy product again but kept the prices up. If anything they’ll be scaling back next year, not expanding further. The 747’s retire within 4 years. If they’re still around BFS they’re more likely to be using the 330 than the 350. I’m surprised they didn’t use it in the first place. The 330 makes a lot more sense than a 468 seat Jumbo.
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Virgin’s forward bookings in the shoulder months are grim with virtually no interest in the J cabin and little more in Premium. They’ve just dumbed down their economy product again but kept the prices up. If anything they’ll be scaling back next year, not expanding further. The 747’s retire within 4 years. If they’re still around BFS they’re more likely to be using the 330 than the 350. I’m surprised they didn’t use it in the first place. The 330 makes a lot more sense than a 468 seat Jumbo.
A333; 31/48/185 (264) vs B744; 14/66/375 (455)
The A333 is a lot more premium heavy than the B744, and is wholly unsuitable for BFS operations. The A333 is actually used primarily for key business routes alongside the B789, whereas the B744s are reserved exclusively for leisure routes. There are 79 premium seats on the A333, compared with 80 on the B744. VS would find it difficult to fill 75% of the seats on an A333, whereas passenger figures show that the airline exceeds this load factor when using the B744.
In 2016, VS carried on average 354 pax per flight (78% LF), and 385 pax in 2017 (85% LF), so it is clear that operating the B744 on this route is working well for VS.
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Oh dear, the route is going down the chute according to Huskeyone 
(Yes it is very expensive. Only £1500 return Business Class from Dublin, and about £4,000 with Virgin)
(Yes it is very expensive. Only £1500 return Business Class from Dublin, and about £4,000 with Virgin)
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As a comparison I will be heading to Malaysia in December. BHD-Langkawi, Premium Economy with BA for £1100. That is equivalent or less cost (to travel almost twice the distance) than Virgin want for a similar ‘high season’ prices in the same cabin from BFS to MCO.
As already mentioned, from Dublin you can fly AA to MCO for £650 in Premium Econ if booked sensibly in advance and clear border control before you even leave this island.
Maybe Virgin don’t really care about the premium market as long as they are filling 300+ Y seats out of BFS? Premium cabin occupancy might just be cream on top?
Last edited by EGAC is Better; 27th Mar 2018 at 07:55.
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Jet 2 - Almeria LEI reduced to one weekly. Also showing AGP as one weekly.......very strange maybe more to come
A few earlier starts AYT NAP starting in April, and DLM starting in May. All one month earlier than 2018
A few earlier starts AYT NAP starting in April, and DLM starting in May. All one month earlier than 2018
Last edited by GAZMO; 27th Mar 2018 at 10:12.
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You can make statistics say anything you want but in reality an A330 is far cheaper to operate than a 744, cabins can be easily retrofitted and will be as the old fleet retires, a 78% LF based on a few flights in peak season doesn’t really tell you much compared to a half year operation. What virgin have failed to appreciate is the fine tuning of the price point beyond which people will trundle towards Dub. The VS product is no longer sufficiently different to stop that. So many airlines fail to understand our market.
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Wednesday afternoon there is a gap after a Palma flight (B733 aircraft).
Also one of the B738 aircraft has no flights on Wednesdays.
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You can make statistics say anything you want but in reality an A330 is far cheaper to operate than a 744, cabins can be easily retrofitted and will be as the old fleet retires, a 78% LF based on a few flights in peak season doesn’t really tell you much compared to a half year operation. What virgin have failed to appreciate is the fine tuning of the price point beyond which people will trundle towards Dub. The VS product is no longer sufficiently different to stop that. So many airlines fail to understand our market.
Virgin's current business model is to use the B744 on leisure routes, and the A333, A346 and B789 on their business routes. Virgin aren't going to change their entire business model just because it *could possibly* benefit one seasonal route. You need to look at the bigger picture - the B744s will be retired in a couple of years, with the A350-1000 pegged to replace them. Yes, the B744 is slightly too big for BFS, but a more suitable aircraft, configured with a leisure cabin, will be available in just a few years.
Plus; by using the B744 for all MCO operations, it means that there are fewer positioning flights. Throughout the whole season, VS will only need to fly two empty positioning flights (LGW-BFS on the first day of the schedule, and BFS-LGW on the last day). If the A333 was used instead, VS would need to fly the aircraft empty LHR-BFS and BFS-LHR every single week. That's a wholly inefficient way of operating the BFS flights.
Also, the fact that VS have increased their BFS offering every year since the route's inception clearly shows that the airline is content with the amount of money it's making.
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Nobody said they would change their model to accommodate one route 
The reality of the way VS operate is that they don’t know which aircraft will really be flying which route 6 months ahead never mind several years. They’ve even had to buy back an A340-600 recently to cover the mess made by the 787. The latter is also already too small for what they’re doing. If there are no A330’s serving MCO this year it’ll be the first year they’ve tried it. They’ve just chopped CUN which has better figures than BFS and 4 years is a long time to have a very large aircraft flying half empty for the majority of the summer season. I’d put a lot of money on next year’s program starting late and finishing early. With the fares they charge, a £28million loss points at a requirement for some fundamental changes. Delta passengers may like VS but Delta management will be breathing down their neck to make significant changes.
The reality of the way VS operate is that they don’t know which aircraft will really be flying which route 6 months ahead never mind several years. They’ve even had to buy back an A340-600 recently to cover the mess made by the 787. The latter is also already too small for what they’re doing. If there are no A330’s serving MCO this year it’ll be the first year they’ve tried it. They’ve just chopped CUN which has better figures than BFS and 4 years is a long time to have a very large aircraft flying half empty for the majority of the summer season. I’d put a lot of money on next year’s program starting late and finishing early. With the fares they charge, a £28million loss points at a requirement for some fundamental changes. Delta passengers may like VS but Delta management will be breathing down their neck to make significant changes.
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Nobody said they would change their model to accommodate one route
The reality of the way VS operate is that they don’t know which aircraft will really be flying which route 6 months ahead never mind several years. They’ve even had to buy back an A340-600 recently to cover the mess made by the 787. The latter is also already too small for what they’re doing. If there are no A330’s serving MCO this year it’ll be the first year they’ve tried it. They’ve just chopped CUN which has better figures than BFS and 4 years is a long time to have a very large aircraft flying half empty for the majority of the summer season. I’d put a lot of money on next year’s program starting late and finishing early. With the fares they charge, a £28million loss points at a requirement for some fundamental changes. Delta passengers may like VS but Delta management will be breathing down their neck to make significant changes.
The reality of the way VS operate is that they don’t know which aircraft will really be flying which route 6 months ahead never mind several years. They’ve even had to buy back an A340-600 recently to cover the mess made by the 787. The latter is also already too small for what they’re doing. If there are no A330’s serving MCO this year it’ll be the first year they’ve tried it. They’ve just chopped CUN which has better figures than BFS and 4 years is a long time to have a very large aircraft flying half empty for the majority of the summer season. I’d put a lot of money on next year’s program starting late and finishing early. With the fares they charge, a £28million loss points at a requirement for some fundamental changes. Delta passengers may like VS but Delta management will be breathing down their neck to make significant changes.
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Just booked Jet2 for Malta from Stansted for July. It is cheaper for a party of 3 to fly from LDY with Flybmi, then STN to Malta with Jet2, week in Malta, back to STN with Jet2, night in Raddison in STN and then Flybmi back to LDY than it is for the SAME holiday direct to Malta from BFS with Jet2. Saving around £400 on BFS price. Done the same last year from LDY - STN to Faro with Jet2, savings then around £300 compared to BFS.