Is there a future for A380?
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Is there a future for A380?
The linked article paints a bleak picture for the future of the A380. That picture seems to grow more bleak every week.
Is Airbus's A380 a 'superjumbo' with a future or an aerospace white elephant? - Telegraph
Is Airbus's A380 a 'superjumbo' with a future or an aerospace white elephant? - Telegraph
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10 years in the A380 had been shown to fill a specific role in the market.
As the article (on the 10th anniversary) says, the best years are likely still ahead, as markets increase and airport slots are harder to get. Places like Heathrow will need A380 to transport the masses as extra runways are an even harder option.
The A380 is also loved by the SLF.
Smaller craft will be in the numbers game but I think the A380 will plod ahead filling a need.
As the article (on the 10th anniversary) says, the best years are likely still ahead, as markets increase and airport slots are harder to get. Places like Heathrow will need A380 to transport the masses as extra runways are an even harder option.
The A380 is also loved by the SLF.
Smaller craft will be in the numbers game but I think the A380 will plod ahead filling a need.
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Emirates remain keen.
Emirates Will Buy 100 More A380s If Airbus Upgrades Model - Bloomberg
Emirates Will Buy 100 More A380s If Airbus Upgrades Model - Bloomberg
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I agree , so many SLCs I know lurve the 380 , so I see it being successful for the big hitters . Problem is , anybody remember a lovely bird called Concorde ? Grounded because the French just jacked the prices for parts up so much , that even BA had to call it a day . Will they do it again ?
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There are many routes for which the A380 is the obvious aeroplane.
I think that a good many people sitting round airline board tables are just scared of the committment.
I think that a good many people sitting round airline board tables are just scared of the committment.
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10 years in the A380 had been shown to fill a specific role in the market.
As the article (on the 10th anniversary) says, the best years are likely still ahead, as markets increase and airport slots are harder to get. Places like Heathrow will need A380 to transport the masses as extra runways are an even harder option.
Smaller craft will be in the numbers game but I think the A380 will plod ahead filling a need.
The 380 cannot be compared to Concorde with needed absurdly high prices to be paid as premium for speed . It is a great plane to fly on-streets ahead of the T7 in terms of comfort and potentially it will retain this vis a vis the 78 and A 350 which are no doubt very economic but seem to be a bit underwhelming in pax experience and likely to end up very crowded due to more seats abreast than the airframe was really designed for.
I think carriers like BA LH AF etc will gradually add 380s but that more growth will come from the ME3 plus high density versions which will be necessary for several China services in 4-8 years time.
So I think it will be better than a lemon but no A320 either and its definitely my aircraft of choice on long haul since it is very quiet and very comfortable and doesn't force you to breathe air with 5% humidity
I think carriers like BA LH AF etc will gradually add 380s but that more growth will come from the ME3 plus high density versions which will be necessary for several China services in 4-8 years time.
So I think it will be better than a lemon but no A320 either and its definitely my aircraft of choice on long haul since it is very quiet and very comfortable and doesn't force you to breathe air with 5% humidity
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Limited slot availability has been shown to be a false argument. A380 is so big and heavy that it REDUCES the number of available slots at an airport because of the spacing it requires on landing and takeoff. You can land two A350s and 777s in the time space required of an A380. Further, the double decks make A380 turn around times terrible. You can unload and then reload two A350s and 777s in the time it takes to turn around an A380. And the A380 also increases congestion INside most airports.
I am not sure of takeoff separation, but think gate times are not as bad as you say. Have you ever been PAX onboard? Loading at SIN was impressive and the terminal was well run, same experience in SYD. I think LHR needs the A380 to be able to maximise landing slots in coming years as they are pretty maxed out.
A380 works very well for the major long haul players, and as a post above 90% capacity on Emirates must be a money spinner for the bean counters!
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You can unload and then reload two A350s and 777s in the time it takes to turn around an A380.
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Pax love it!
I have spent many thousands of hours in the air but for only a very small percentage of those hours have I had to actually pay. On those occasions I have usually had to shuffle down inside some sort of elongated shipping container, otherwise known as a jetty, and it is not until I actually got on to the aircraft that I could identify it. I got on that flight because it happened to be going where I wanted to go, not because it was an A or a B (for want of a better expression).
To say that the customers love this or that particular type of aircraft is all very well, but when it comes to the crunch (hopefully not!), the passenger gets, not his choice, but what is on offer.
To say that the customers love this or that particular type of aircraft is all very well, but when it comes to the crunch (hopefully not!), the passenger gets, not his choice, but what is on offer.
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A380 a ho-hum bus
Having ridden them a few times - all BA, and always in biz - so no comparison to other flavors - unless you want some sort of bragging rights for doing something your neighbor hasn't done, in BA hands at least it's just another bus. They've done nothing to improve their 'eclectic' biz class seating arrangement. The upper forward lavs are huge, apparently due to Emirates' using them as FC showers, if that's a consolation prize.
Airbus is faced with a difficult question. The A380 has (so far) failed to sell at rate that will even begin to make it a profitable aircraft for the manufacturer. In fact, in addition to the ~15 - 20 billion Euro that it cost to put it into production, Airbus has pretty much admitted that it's been costing more to build each aircraft than the actual sales price (BTW this isn't exactly uncommon for early production aircraft, but not so much 7 years after EIS 
).
The A380 is supposed to turn the corner in 2015 and become cash flow positive, but that'll make only a small dent in the 15-20 billion Euro development costs (plus interest). Bottom line is that unless Airbus can sell hundreds more A380s, it'll never get within shouting distance of break-even. Worse, to really make any money the production rate needs to stay no lower than the current ~3/month, preferably higher. If the production rate drops much below the current rate the overhead for maintaining the line becomes killer and cash flow again goes negative.
We have the biggest customer saying they'll order a bunch more, but only if Airbus invests more billions in a new engine (and perhaps a stretch, which would mean even more billions). At least so far, no operator besides Emirates has expressed serious interest in an upgraded A380.
Airbus is now a publicly traded company - less answerable to governments and more answerable to the shareholders. Throwing away billions on a dead end program is not a realistic option (at least not intentionally). So Airbus needs to decide if dumping additional billions into the A380 is the answer to making the program a long term success, or good money after tens of billions of bad. Not a decision I'd want to have to make
In short, AB needs to decide if they believe all their PR about the A380 being a future success
). The A380 is supposed to turn the corner in 2015 and become cash flow positive, but that'll make only a small dent in the 15-20 billion Euro development costs (plus interest). Bottom line is that unless Airbus can sell hundreds more A380s, it'll never get within shouting distance of break-even. Worse, to really make any money the production rate needs to stay no lower than the current ~3/month, preferably higher. If the production rate drops much below the current rate the overhead for maintaining the line becomes killer and cash flow again goes negative.
We have the biggest customer saying they'll order a bunch more, but only if Airbus invests more billions in a new engine (and perhaps a stretch, which would mean even more billions). At least so far, no operator besides Emirates has expressed serious interest in an upgraded A380.
Airbus is now a publicly traded company - less answerable to governments and more answerable to the shareholders. Throwing away billions on a dead end program is not a realistic option (at least not intentionally). So Airbus needs to decide if dumping additional billions into the A380 is the answer to making the program a long term success, or good money after tens of billions of bad. Not a decision I'd want to have to make
In short, AB needs to decide if they believe all their PR about the A380 being a future success
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There were criticisms back in the early days of the A3XX process that Airbus was being too conservative and needed to make the leap to blended-wing-body designs.
They declined, and instead decided to refine the tube-and-wings configuration offering a few % advantage over smaller competitors, rather than being bold and aiming for > 20% by moving out of the comfort zone.
Naturally, rival tube-and-wings are iterating refinements and closing the gap.
Lufthansa say the litres-per-passenger-kilometer advantage of the A380 vs 747-8 is 3%. That's a clean-sheet versus reheat of a 1960s design.
The A380 is impressive in scale, but has no other tricks up its sleeves. It's nearly dead.
They declined, and instead decided to refine the tube-and-wings configuration offering a few % advantage over smaller competitors, rather than being bold and aiming for > 20% by moving out of the comfort zone.
Naturally, rival tube-and-wings are iterating refinements and closing the gap.
Lufthansa say the litres-per-passenger-kilometer advantage of the A380 vs 747-8 is 3%. That's a clean-sheet versus reheat of a 1960s design.
The A380 is impressive in scale, but has no other tricks up its sleeves. It's nearly dead.
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history shows that aircraft capacity is ALWAYS a winner - look at the growth is the 737, 707, 747, 767, 777 for example
The ability to move larger numbers of passengers with the same aircrew and number of airframes is always one airlines crave
As the 747 fades the A 380is the only game in town to put a lot of bums on seats - remember it can shift 700++ in current versions
God knows how many Ryanair could get on board.............
The ability to move larger numbers of passengers with the same aircrew and number of airframes is always one airlines crave
As the 747 fades the A 380is the only game in town to put a lot of bums on seats - remember it can shift 700++ in current versions
God knows how many Ryanair could get on board.............
It strikes me that the A380 has a devoted fan base who simply refuse to acknowledge what's going on out in the real world.
Not only have sales been disappointing, they've pretty much dried up. No orders for a over a year, no new customers for over 3 years, and the most recent order is from a lease company who haven't found any customers for it. There have even been cancellations. That should tell it's own story. That and the fact that sales of the 787 panicked Airbus into developing the A350.
To say that the A380 has an unassailable position due to capacity restrictions at major airports is, IMO, only correct for what might be termed mega-hubs, and I think that's a limited market. The 777, 787 and A350 have been game changers in airline economics and have made 'thinner' routes viable without following the hub and spoke model.
As to it's popularity, I don't doubt that the A380 is popular with passengers. I've certainly enjoyed flying on it. But to suggest that passengers will almost demand to fly on it in preference to other aircraft types is rather misplaced. And airlines aren't particularly interested in what's popular with passengers, only in what's most economically efficient.
Does the A380 have a future? Probably, but not a glorious one. Even if it eventually breaks even, I can't see it being a money spinner for Airbus. I think they just called the market wrong on this one.
