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It's 250,000 extra seats, after deducting a very sizeable decrease from Monarch.
From memory, Easyjet are growing in a similar vein to Ryanair. Jet2 is flat, contrary to Shed's assumption.
I'm told the report will be available on the ACL website, so worth having a look
NW.
From memory, Easyjet are growing in a similar vein to Ryanair. Jet2 is flat, contrary to Shed's assumption.
I'm told the report will be available on the ACL website, so worth having a look
NW.
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The ACL report definitely worth a look, although I'm afraid it's disappointing reading in some ways.
ATMs Start of s15 vs start s14 -1%
ATMs Start of s15 vs end s14 -0.4%
ATM Seats Start of s15 vs start s14 +0.4%
ATM Seats Start of s15 vs end s14 +1.3%
Given the increases/cancellations listed by airline later in the report, it is perhaps surprising that the net increase in seats is so low. However, one of the graphs of movements by week suggests that May is quieter than last year i.e some flights start later in the season than s2014. In this context also, Vueling & Iberia Express only begin their new services part way through the summer, Ryanair's 8th based a/c is only in August and Easyjets 9th from June. Virgin's extra capacity to MCO & LAS is only peak season. It could mean therefore that the season gets off to a sluggish start but improves later.
ATMs Start of s15 vs start s14 -1%
ATMs Start of s15 vs end s14 -0.4%
ATM Seats Start of s15 vs start s14 +0.4%
ATM Seats Start of s15 vs end s14 +1.3%
Given the increases/cancellations listed by airline later in the report, it is perhaps surprising that the net increase in seats is so low. However, one of the graphs of movements by week suggests that May is quieter than last year i.e some flights start later in the season than s2014. In this context also, Vueling & Iberia Express only begin their new services part way through the summer, Ryanair's 8th based a/c is only in August and Easyjets 9th from June. Virgin's extra capacity to MCO & LAS is only peak season. It could mean therefore that the season gets off to a sluggish start but improves later.
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Load factors should improve this season. Monarch were struggling to fill planes so axed services. So even if the seat count was flat logic dictates improved totals as Ryanair EasyJet etc will operate fuller flights than Monarch achieved. On top of this there is an actual increase (2.5% I've heard somewhere?) in seats offered. This gives a much higher potential increase than merely considering seats available this year vs last.
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Seats and ATMs Summer 2015.
ACL Start of Summer 2015 report shows seats just 1.3% above the outturn for Summer 2014, and ATMs slightly down. This would suggest a modest traffic growth picture in 2015. The strange thing is that over the Winter 14/15 we have seen passenger growth of 5-10%, and ATMs 2-4%. This is an established trend and so it is hard to explain why it should suddenly hit the buffers as the clocks change. I know the report covers a 7 month period but still seems strange to me. Let's see what happens!
Last edited by roverman; 27th Mar 2015 at 19:58. Reason: spelling
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Shed,
Im a bit confused as to why Atlanta is being put in the 'lost' category. The fact is, Virgin is a direct swap for Delta, so, is nothing more than a glorified equipment swap. Delta is not lost, as they begin a daily JFK in May.
As for the ACL report, some interesting points:
-Hainan is down as a Sept 2nd start, a completely different date to anything rumoured.
-Austrian is down to begin a daily F100 to Vienna from 1st Sept. In at 1050 out at 1205, this is the first time in years they have appeared on the ACL and not handed slots back. Maybe finally a return on the cards, as they are rumoured.
-Mistral air to run a weekly FCO charter Jun-Aug.
Im a bit confused as to why Atlanta is being put in the 'lost' category. The fact is, Virgin is a direct swap for Delta, so, is nothing more than a glorified equipment swap. Delta is not lost, as they begin a daily JFK in May.
As for the ACL report, some interesting points:
-Hainan is down as a Sept 2nd start, a completely different date to anything rumoured.
-Austrian is down to begin a daily F100 to Vienna from 1st Sept. In at 1050 out at 1205, this is the first time in years they have appeared on the ACL and not handed slots back. Maybe finally a return on the cards, as they are rumoured.
-Mistral air to run a weekly FCO charter Jun-Aug.
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For those who are interested the full ACL report is at http://www.acl-uk.org/UserFiles/File...n%20Report.pdf
Seats up by just 0.4% on last summer's start of season report, or 1.3% up on the end of season report. As Shed says, a bit muted. And I agree that Ryanair's flatness is especially disappointing. I don't know the reason for that, but I also hope that infrastructure constraints aren't a factor.
Seats up by just 0.4% on last summer's start of season report, or 1.3% up on the end of season report. As Shed says, a bit muted. And I agree that Ryanair's flatness is especially disappointing. I don't know the reason for that, but I also hope that infrastructure constraints aren't a factor.
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LAX_LHR ... Re-read the line in my post which covers DELTA AIRLINES and the MAN-ATL route. It does not differ in content from what you say so nothing to be confused about here?
North West ... I agree completely that 'seats' are a preferable data source for forecasting than 'movements'. However, I don't have all the aircraft configs available or the time to produce such an in-depth analysis if I had, particularly on LHR with the ever-changing mix of A319/A320/A321 equipment. Hence the method I used which appears to have made the point sufficiently. Also, thankyou for the correction re Jet2. I had hypothesised that the B738 + B752 combo replacing the proposed A333 routes and the absorption of the former Blackpool programme would have put us in positive territory. Disappointing if that is not the case.
North West ... I agree completely that 'seats' are a preferable data source for forecasting than 'movements'. However, I don't have all the aircraft configs available or the time to produce such an in-depth analysis if I had, particularly on LHR with the ever-changing mix of A319/A320/A321 equipment. Hence the method I used which appears to have made the point sufficiently. Also, thankyou for the correction re Jet2. I had hypothesised that the B738 + B752 combo replacing the proposed A333 routes and the absorption of the former Blackpool programme would have put us in positive territory. Disappointing if that is not the case.
Last edited by Shed-on-a-Pole; 27th Mar 2015 at 20:50.
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Shed,
It was more to do with the fact you are lumping the news into the 'loss' section, with all the other lost routes. Hence the confusion as to why that news had 'bad' company.
It was more to do with the fact you are lumping the news into the 'loss' section, with all the other lost routes. Hence the confusion as to why that news had 'bad' company.
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LAX_LHR ... Delta's withdrawal from MAN-ATL has to be included in the list for completeness. The caveat relating to the introduction of Virgin Atlantic in their place is clearly reported and accounted for. There are no grounds for confusion in this instance.
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So even if the seat count was flat logic dictates improved totals as Ryanair EasyJet etc will operate fuller flights than Monarch achieved.
LAX,yes I noticed the dates given for Hainan and Austrian and then forgot to mention.
Given we lose, for example, Little Red and bmir immediately, and presumably the loss of a daily BA shuttle also, I wouldn't be too surprised if April results are not too clever, although the timing of Easter sometimes has an impact. Apart from LFs, the timing of when the routes that are being dropped started last summer, as compared to the timing of new services or increased frequencies this summer, may well determine how smooth or volatile the percentage changes in pax numbers are from month to month.
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MAN is absolutely rammed in the morning until the first wave of RYR. EZY etc depart. Until some sort of terminal expansion takes place then the only growth from EZY and RYR can surely come from non based units.
I'm with LAX_LHR Shed though on DL, you do clearly say about VS taking over, but when the list is highlight reductions it doesn't even really need mentioning.
MON is the biggest blow, but if they did not sort their game out there may not have been any MON...I know which I'd prefer !
BA are not reducing because their shuttles are full. Pax are just getting to places via the many other options available from MAN these days.
BMI ABZ pax will not just disappear, they will probably just use FlyBe.
CLT would have been nice to keep, but there is talk of a return, maybe next year.
It's a million miles from gloom at MAN at the minute...so much so they better get a move on with providing extra capacity to deal with it at peak times or future growth will be stunted.
I'm with LAX_LHR Shed though on DL, you do clearly say about VS taking over, but when the list is highlight reductions it doesn't even really need mentioning.
MON is the biggest blow, but if they did not sort their game out there may not have been any MON...I know which I'd prefer !
BA are not reducing because their shuttles are full. Pax are just getting to places via the many other options available from MAN these days.
BMI ABZ pax will not just disappear, they will probably just use FlyBe.
CLT would have been nice to keep, but there is talk of a return, maybe next year.
It's a million miles from gloom at MAN at the minute...so much so they better get a move on with providing extra capacity to deal with it at peak times or future growth will be stunted.
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BA are not reducing because their shuttles are full. Pax are just getting to places via the many other options available from MAN these days.
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Over 200 on each ? On a 321 ? I thought they had 188 seats !
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Would love to see more flights from HAM into MAN (and back).
"Every" time (that's 3-4 times a year) for me the tube is filled with pax to the max.
How would that Terminal expansion looking like? I hope they invest some pennies into a new website, too. The "maps" there are more confusing then helping.
"Every" time (that's 3-4 times a year) for me the tube is filled with pax to the max.
How would that Terminal expansion looking like? I hope they invest some pennies into a new website, too. The "maps" there are more confusing then helping.
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Thanks for that link to the ACL Report, BasilBush. It seems that my original list omitted the withdrawal of one of the daily Swiss flights to Zurich and cutbacks to ABZ and SOU by FlyBe. So a new total of over 22 departures (44 movements) per day required to be offset by new services. Interestingly, ACL has elected to use the same format as myself in displaying the change to the MAN-ATL operation: Delta is shown as "cancelled" whilst Virgin Atlantic is listed as a new service.
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Pretty sure Swiss was only 2 daily last summer as well so no loss of frequency there.
On the flip side, Egyptair is bookable through to March 2016 on their website. I recollect that there were normally some issues that meant that each season's ops only became bookable close to the start of that season. Bilateral issue resolved?
On the flip side, Egyptair is bookable through to March 2016 on their website. I recollect that there were normally some issues that meant that each season's ops only became bookable close to the start of that season. Bilateral issue resolved?
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Pretty sure Swiss was only 2 daily last summer as well so no loss of frequency there.
Interesting that in the peak week, MAN's total seats are up 3% rather than the 1.3% over the full season. This again suggests that MAN might be flat in the shoulder (non-peak) months such as May.
Page 5 of the report which shows the gains and losses in seats by airline over the full summer season and for the peak week (not checked which week that is but probably late July) is quite illuminating. Apart from Ryanair being plus 170,000 seats, easyJet are up 120,000 thanks to the extra based a/c. Also encouraging is the extra capacity from TCX (120,000 seats net of a reduction by Condor) and 123,000 by TOM.
On the downside, the loss of 495,000 seats on MON just emphasises what an impact that's made on the overall capacity at MAN. The other large negative is Virgin Atlantic which, despite the addition of ATL and extra capacity to the US in peak season, has a net loss of 89,000 seats due to the pulling out of Little Red.
Jet2, despite 2 extra based a/c are down very slightly overall but up over 4% in the peak week.
Incidentally, that 'full' airport at LHR still manages to show a 0.9% increase in ATMs compared to the start of summer'14 with a 3.7% increase in seats. Average seats per passenger ATM is 214 compared to 173 at MAN and 186 at LGW.