MANCHESTER 1

[nigel osborne]

MANFOD,


Yes I thought it might be slightly more smaller A330s for Qatar.

Sure they will recover as the year progresses unless the extra seats from the 2nd EK daily A380 has an effect on Qatar ?

Nigel

[kieb92]

Fantastic regards Vueling that they are even considering MAN as an option for a base as only a couple of months back we thought that we had lost them to BHX regarding BCN. Would be much cheaper alternative to keep IAG links from Manchester. They have made Rome work amongst others so will be interesting to see if anything develops.

[eggc]

Comments found online regarding Vueling :-

" It's not confirmed but, there is a lot going on behind the scenes at IAG regarding Manchester. I'm genuinely not allowed to say any more, but, there are exciting times ahead."

"Vueling is instead of BA per se. IAG are using vueling as the low cost answer to operations. The amount of work IAG are putting into MAN is staggering behind the scenes."

All very interesting...

[MANFOD]

Comments found online regarding Vueling :-

It certainly could very interesting. Can you or LAX clarify one thing? Is MAN the hub in this concept or a spoke?

If the former, then flights would presumably originate at other airports rather than MAN being the base. This would have the advantage of not clogging up the airfield more overnight and utilising the runway, stands and terminals at less busy times. But if the idea being mooted is indeed MAN as a hub, that raises a lot more questions and speculation.

Ah well, it keeps the pot bubbling nicely.

[LAX_LHR]

Re vueling:


MAN would be the base/hub, especially if routes like Timisoara come off, as its currently unserved by Vueling. This is just one airport to come forward as talking to Vueling re: flights to Manchester. Who knows who else they spoke to.


Random fact of the day. Vueling was formed in 1995, and was origianlly concieved that its first route would be Valencia-Manchester. We all know that plan eventually changed....


In terms of other confirmed news, another Turkish operator to add to the roster, Tailwind to Ercan.


TWI197 ECN 0700 MAN 1135
TWI198 MAN 1235 ECN 2050


Wed, B737-800


So, plenty of TC-registered planes this summer, with Pegasus, Turkish, Corendon, Onur Air, Tailwind and Freebird all confirmed.

[1mach]

Vueling

Flown twice with Vueling, SVQ to BCN and SVQ to LHR. Equipment on both flights had not been cleaned, the cabins were full of the previous flight's waste. The cabin crew were unconcerned. Hope that they have improve.

[GEB74]

Shed / DomyDom, Re: Vienna.
So, you think Jet2's twice and at a peak thrice weekly service to Vienna is preferable to having the National flag carrier of Austria link into it's long haul network with a frequency of at least double that?
The LS service to Vienna is half assed. I can accept half assed (twice or thrice weekly Ryanair style) service to lower tier capitals like Bratislava with no onward long haul connections, but don't you think we should be aiming a little higher for somewhere like Austria?

[Mr A Tis]

To be fair, Austrian have had MAN-VIE pencilled back in, on and off for years but never acted. Therefore it is a credit to Jet2 to see the numbers of pax from MAN going to VIE and putting a service on. I am sure this act alone has prompted Austrian to come off the fence - even now, nothing is official.
I remember the Austrian MD80s being full & then the twice daily CRJ Lauda Airs being full- they chose to abandon the route.
There is a leisure market ideal for Jet 2 & a Star Alliance consolidation of interline routes from MAN. Most of the interline destinations from VIE are already covered by LH via FRA & MUC, so any increase in connections via VIE maybe at a cost of reductions on the high cost Lufthansa routes. Lufthansa's ethos is to reduce short haul flying right through Europe in favour of third party Star Alliance carriers.
I'd be careful what you wish for.

[North West]

The LS service to Vienna is half assed. I can accept half assed (twice or thrice weekly Ryanair style) service to lower tier capitals like Bratislava with no onward long haul connections, but don't you think we should be aiming a little higher for somewhere like Austria?

I suppose it depends who you mean by 'we' in this context. Which particular stakeholder group are you talking on behalf of ?

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

GEB74 - Your comment comes across very negatively. Neither myself nor DomyDom have spoken out against Austrian Airlines - why would we? Many routes have competition, and if MAN-VIE can attract a second carrier then I wish both success on the route. Who knows, there could be three operators if Iraqi Airways get rights on their MAN-VIE sectors.

But I must give full credit to Jet2 for making a success of the VIE route in the absence of any other carrier willing to take the initiative. No doubt they have settled upon a frequency which provides an acceptable level of profitability for them. Perhaps they should ditch that good business sense, go "full-assed" daily and lose lots of money instead to keep you happy?

It is always disappointing to see a poster express a wish to see an airline fail in its endeavours. That is your stance (against Jet2), not ours (against Austrian). Don't be surprised to find little support for your view on a forum provided for aviation professionals. No doubt including afew who have worked hard to establish Jet2 as the fantastic asset to MAN which it has become.

[GEB74]

North West - Ironically, I mean the 'North West of England' when using the phrase 'we'.

Shed - I wouldn't suggest Jet 2 go 'full assed'. Clearly they would lose a fortune. Few business customers. Zero recognition at other end of route and no long haul feed......
I've nowt against LS. Will be re-sampling the delights of 'Antique Airways' to NCE this summer.

As a general point, with a growing economy and growing passenger numbers at MAN along with a capacity constrained national hub airport, maybe it's time to 'want' a bit better than what we have on some routes. Just being thankful we have some semblance of a service on a route now, compared to none 5 years ago is understandable but Shed, thats a negative attitude to me......
If one airline hurts another whilst delivering expansion to MAN, tough.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

It is not a matter of 'being thankful' for having a 'semblance of service' on a route. I simply don't wish to see the incumbent driven off the route when a 'preferred-by-some' carrier enters the market later on. It is rather a desire for sustainable expansion on all the routes across MAN's portfolio, rather than facing any repeat of the scenarios seen on routes to Berlin and Madrid over recent years. Boom and bust expansion does not benefit MAN in the long term.

In the case of the MAN-VIE route specifically, I can see Jet2 and Austrian co-existing successfully as (like you say) Jet2 attracts a certain niche leisure market. I hope they are able to continue to prosper in this regard if/when competition emerges on the route.

On your general point regarding the growing economy I have to sound a note of caution. I know ... nobody wants to think about this, and we're all being fed 'feelgood' vibes as election season approaches. But the UK's growth is particularly driven by debt rather than wealth creation, so we can't be complacent going forward. The currency markets are quite volatile at this point and low oil prices, whilst offering a short-term windfall for the airline industry, don't bode well for the health of the global economy. Bellweather hard commodities such as copper are ploughing multi-year lows. The Baltic Dry Index is especially low. I know that I'll quickly attract the "glass half full" digs at this point, but we mustn't let the recent (very welcome) rash of new route announcements loosen our grasp on economic reality. January / February is always peak season for new route press releases. The pace will subside.

Whilst Summer 2015 is set to deliver plenty of positives, MAN's setbacks are more substantial than many suppose because they're concentrated amongst so few names. The Monarch cutbacks are significant - MAN's worst hit for quite some time. Between Virgin Little Red and BA we're losing 4-5 A320's per day on LHR, and some smaller miscellaneous routes have quietly faded away as well. The Ryanair expansion which I was hoping would offset much of this deficit now appears to be stalled with 7 based looking like the S15 fleet (same as last year). Whilst there is the odd new RYR service, their plateauing at MAN would be a major concern particularly if driven by T3 capacity constraints. Our anticipated terminal upgrades will take a long time (years?) to deliver. So when will Ryanair be in a position to resume ambitious expansion at MAN?

I'm also hearing that another very long-established MAN carrier is set to exit after many years, final confirmation awaited. The net result is that if you compare actual Summer 2014 and Summer 2015 capacity ex-MAN the net difference is much less than all the good news stories here have led folks to believe. Route losses never attract the same publicity as PR-accompanied launches. This coming Summer will hopefully see MAN passenger stats remain steady in the 'plus column' but it won't be 'soaraway growth'. SUSTAINABILITY across the portfolio of routes ex-MAN is paramount in this climate. Nurture the gains and be prepared for the next storm to hit. A gung-ho attitude of picking and choosing which carriers we want to see succeed on a route would be seriously counterproductive.

[LAX_LHR]

Shed,


Great post, but, I do have to disagree with some you have said.


For example 'the increase of summer 15 versus 14 isn't as great as lead to believe'.


Lets look at this.


We are loosing 3 based Monarch, and as you say, about 5 A320 flights to Heathrow per day. Nobody has tried to hide that. We have also lost about 6 A320 flights per week in the form of 1 less TAP per week, 2 less SAS and 1 less Aegean' Lastly, we loose about 3 months worth of Egyptair based on the S15 schedule season and their re-start (all based on S4 to S15).


But, and here is the but, what have we gained? Im not going to do the whole list again, its a bit too repetitive for my liking, but, all things considered, how that can be considered anything but significant expansion is just a fallicy?


I mean, yes, less Ryanair expansion that anticipated os a downer, but, its not a loss, is it? We still have a month of 8 based aircraft from them, we still have new routes to Chania, Stuttgart, Eindhoven and Shannon.


All in all, yes, there are some losses, and there will be, its the nature of the business, but, I must say, Im genuinely surprised that people seem to be trying to find the single thorn in a bed of roses.


Glass half empty dig? Consider it to be one if you so wish, however, when we have seen so many increases for S15, why some cannot be satisfied with that is rather odd, just what will it take for those to say 'S15 looks to be in a good place'. I mean, it could be much, much worse.........

[GEB74]

Good and fair commentary Shed.
Couple of things.
Can I suggest you look at the HARPEX index instead of Baltic Dry? It represents the movement of a much wider variety of goods by container, not bulk. It shows a rather different picture which through my own business activities I can agree with!
The UK economy is rather good at boom and bust cycles. The debt based growth we are seeing now will surely lead to another cycle. Regrettably this will mean the same for airlines operations - boom now with ANOTHER bust phase later. Sad, but probably inevitable.

[MANFOD]

I'm also hearing that another very long-established MAN carrier is set to exit after many years, final confirmation awaited.

Shed, I tend to share your sentiments expressed as always very well indeed, but then I do tend to be in the 'glass half empty' camp at times. However, the above sentence in particular did worry me as the airline that jumped to mind was SQ. I hope you may be able to say it is not them, although whoever it is, if confirmed, is not good news.

[Ian Brooks]

Thought they had just announced upgrading our flight

Ian

[Skipness One Echo]

Singapore on the way out was the first thing I thought of too. Munich has grown enough to stand on it's own without the add on to MAN and SQ have a competitive disadvantage with the stop in Germany. Medium term would be a dedicated B77W and they can't seem to fill that against the ME3.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

MANFOD ... Not SQ. However, the info I've come across doesn't yet appear to be in the public domain. It is not my place to put it there.

LAX_LHR ... I would love to be as positive as you. Believe me, I love to see MAN do well and add new carriers and routes, every bit as much as you do. But the future isn't determined by our whim and desire for positive outcomes. It is the numbers which do the talking and they don't care what you or I think. The numbers are the same regardless of whether or you interpret them positively and I interpret them negatively. Right now, the capacity increase projected for S15 versus S14 doesn't look so robust. We may have been lulled into expecting otherwise because most of the setbacks are spread across a small subset of carriers, whilst new capacity is spread across many operators. If Monarch had dropped three and Ryanair had added three most of the rest would be jam. But that didn't happen. And don't forget, Ryanair dropped a couple of routes too. The gains v losses margin is tighter than we may have anticipated.

GEB74 - Thanks for your comments. I'll check out the HARPEX data. I'm quite amenable to taking account of more positive indicators! :-)

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

All - I have just done a trial booking for mid-Summer on the subject airline. They remain on sale, so let's hope it stays that way. Just to confirm, we're definitely not talking about SQ.

[MANFOD]

And don't forget, Ryanair dropped a couple of routes too

Yes, Bremen has quietly been dropped for the summer but we do have 6 x weekly Stuttgart starting whereas Bremen was 3 x weekly.

Regarding Monarch Shed, I'm hoping that seat capacity might not be as badly affected as the loss of 3 based a/c would suggest if the remaining 8 based a/c are doing proportionally more shorter sectors, e.g 6 sectors a day rather than 4. However, the loss of A330s is a lot of seats.

I'm surprised in a way that BA are reducing the number of LHR flights at the same time as Little Red are pulling out. I wonder if that suggests they are not so concerned about the amount of potential transfer business from MAN they are losing to other carriers flying to their hubs, or whether it reflects more on a reduction in domestic passengers due to greater use of the train.

The Vueling rumour following on from the announcement of a BCN service should be worth keeping an eye on.

The ACL report in due course showing seat capacity at the beginning of S15 vs S14 will make interesting reading, and frankly I just don't know what to expect in terms of the level of growth based on what we know. Will it be fairly modest or more substantial, and what increase would be acceptable, especially when measured against growth at competitive airports?

ps Glad to hear it's not SQ