MANCHESTER 1
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STATS & Flybe
July stats out and Hainan figures seem really good (as our most eastbound), I am no expert with Manchester frequencies but it seems around 88% load factor.
However some of the US services are so bad I can't believe they are actually right for July. I know AA ORD was cancelled many times so that one needs adjusting and BREXIT of course. However most travel plans would have been made well before the vote and the trend downwards was there in previous months for some routes. The figures for PHL, ATL and EWR assume all flights operated which might not have been the case with east coast summer storms.
PHL -14% 9866, average 159 (below a 757) around 62% load factor in July?
Chicago 8854 -19% but that was directly due to cancellations
Newark 7906 (down 2%), average 128 or 75%
Washington 7414 (-12%)
Even Atlanta which was up 5% only 12623, average 204 - 77%
JFK was up 35% but I still make it below 80%
Miami, LAX & Boston were well above 80% (if twice weekly) and I didn't check Orlando.
Both BHX's NYC flights were poor but Glasgow and Belfast Newark were up and of course Newcastle but we know how that ended.
The other question is relating to Norwegian and are they serious around a long-haul base, if so I assume on the MAX or is it a short-haul 738 base? Long-haul would be an interesting choice if on the MAX as in reality it would be restricted to NYC, PHL, IAD, BOS in the US and at present it is not exactly short of capacity.
Flybe
Rotterdam one minute double daily until 11/11 then the next week 4 a week - what happened, was this planned? BHX is still planned double daily all winter but don't get me wrong I can't see that staying either at that crazy frequency all winter but such a dramatic change.
Pete
However some of the US services are so bad I can't believe they are actually right for July. I know AA ORD was cancelled many times so that one needs adjusting and BREXIT of course. However most travel plans would have been made well before the vote and the trend downwards was there in previous months for some routes. The figures for PHL, ATL and EWR assume all flights operated which might not have been the case with east coast summer storms.
PHL -14% 9866, average 159 (below a 757) around 62% load factor in July?
Chicago 8854 -19% but that was directly due to cancellations
Newark 7906 (down 2%), average 128 or 75%
Washington 7414 (-12%)
Even Atlanta which was up 5% only 12623, average 204 - 77%
JFK was up 35% but I still make it below 80%
Miami, LAX & Boston were well above 80% (if twice weekly) and I didn't check Orlando.
Both BHX's NYC flights were poor but Glasgow and Belfast Newark were up and of course Newcastle but we know how that ended.
The other question is relating to Norwegian and are they serious around a long-haul base, if so I assume on the MAX or is it a short-haul 738 base? Long-haul would be an interesting choice if on the MAX as in reality it would be restricted to NYC, PHL, IAD, BOS in the US and at present it is not exactly short of capacity.
Flybe
Rotterdam one minute double daily until 11/11 then the next week 4 a week - what happened, was this planned? BHX is still planned double daily all winter but don't get me wrong I can't see that staying either at that crazy frequency all winter but such a dramatic change.
Pete
Join Date: Jan 2013
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The traditional USA routes are probably in 'shock mode' while the new direct options bed in, as routes like LAX/BOS/MIA will be taking away connecting pax from the likes of NYC etc.
USA destination number 13 started today with Houston departing an hour late, and number 14 starts next summer with SFO. strong rumours next week will see destination 15 be announced, so, the east coast hubs will probably be in a state of flux for a while yet.
USA destination number 13 started today with Houston departing an hour late, and number 14 starts next summer with SFO. strong rumours next week will see destination 15 be announced, so, the east coast hubs will probably be in a state of flux for a while yet.
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AA and UA can't compete effectively with MT and VS. They don't have the right product or fare structure. AA also suffer with Oneworld passengers being actively routed via DUB and bypassing their joint venture with BA. DL slightly ahead of the other US carriers with its ownership (partial) of VS. What can UA do? Their Codeshare with SQ might help a little going forward. Otherwise their options appear to be to withdraw or engage in a price war. DL have hinted at this elsewhere in regards to Norwegian. I suspect New York may remain strong enough for UA and AA depending how heavily MT, DL/VS and DY choose to go on the attack. At one point MT filed for double daily JFK, but then retracted. AA might be able to go the way of DL and get BA to operate, but not really sure of any merit there. Most likely is that these two giants will choose to deploy their assets elsewhere. I think MAN suits the smaller competitor airline over the behemoths. As soon as UA took over CO there was decline. Similarly, AA with US.
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The product offered by the American carriers is just shocking, and it really does need adjusting to what the customers demand.
It is nice to see Delta taking the lead and planning on altering its product to fit the current market.
I hope that will keep passengers using the major carriers across the Atlantic, and I am sure VA will follow and react to the low cost competition from wow air and Norwegian.
I have not seen anything official with regards to Norwegian flying from Manchester across the Atlantic.
I am very sceptical about flying narrow bodies across the Atlantic, they do not have the performance to reach the higher levels to cross the Atlantic straight out of the UK, or the performance to keep the pace with the 777, 787 and A330's crossing the Atlantic.
Therefore they will be kept low, in the weather flying slower then every other carrier.
It is nice to see Delta taking the lead and planning on altering its product to fit the current market.
I hope that will keep passengers using the major carriers across the Atlantic, and I am sure VA will follow and react to the low cost competition from wow air and Norwegian.
I have not seen anything official with regards to Norwegian flying from Manchester across the Atlantic.
I am very sceptical about flying narrow bodies across the Atlantic, they do not have the performance to reach the higher levels to cross the Atlantic straight out of the UK, or the performance to keep the pace with the 777, 787 and A330's crossing the Atlantic.
Therefore they will be kept low, in the weather flying slower then every other carrier.
Don`t forget the Norwegian would be the MAX version which a whole new ball game
with a 10-15% improvement in operating costs and range over previous B737
They are in a position to change the way we look at TA flights from UK/Ireland
and western parts of northern europe as they will be able to pick up quite a bit of the B757 routes
Ian
with a 10-15% improvement in operating costs and range over previous B737
They are in a position to change the way we look at TA flights from UK/Ireland
and western parts of northern europe as they will be able to pick up quite a bit of the B757 routes
Ian
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The 777/787 are crossing the Atlantic at .84 to .86 unfortunately these speeds are as far as I aware unachivable in the Max and Neo, these types of aircraft crossing the Atlantic are still very much in the minority.
Your going across the Atlantic during peak hours, you will be held lower as you won't be able to get the higher levels occupied by the faster jets!
Also taking off from say Manchester going to JFK the aircraft will be pretty heavy, the aircraft simply won't have the performance to climb up to the higher levels straight away, therefore crossing the Atlantic lower, say FL300-340, therefore burning more fuel.
Yes everything looks good on paper but in reality it's a different ball game...
Your going across the Atlantic during peak hours, you will be held lower as you won't be able to get the higher levels occupied by the faster jets!
Also taking off from say Manchester going to JFK the aircraft will be pretty heavy, the aircraft simply won't have the performance to climb up to the higher levels straight away, therefore crossing the Atlantic lower, say FL300-340, therefore burning more fuel.
Yes everything looks good on paper but in reality it's a different ball game...
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I have not seen anything official with regards to Norwegian flying from Manchester across the Atlantic.
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However some of the US services are so bad I can't believe they are actually right for July.
Not scientific I know, but seat plans suggested some loads were poor during the first 3 weeks of July but picked up when the school holidays started. From memory, August looked quite a lot better.
If there is destination 15 announced next week (see LAX LHR post 6404 above), it will be interesting to see what it is.
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Well, to be fair the US carriers had this coming.
Sub standard products, shoddy on time performance (in the case of American Airlines) and eye watering prices for some flights.
The folk of Manchester now have a choice, especially on west coast flights, one stop with poor service and high prices, or direct for as little as £349 return, no brainer really.
Destination 15 is another good one.
Sub standard products, shoddy on time performance (in the case of American Airlines) and eye watering prices for some flights.
The folk of Manchester now have a choice, especially on west coast flights, one stop with poor service and high prices, or direct for as little as £349 return, no brainer really.
Destination 15 is another good one.
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AA also suffer with Oneworld passengers being actively routed via DUB and bypassing their joint venture with BA.
May well be a case of who's blinks first, I don't think VS will help things on JFK especially for AA.
Join Date: Dec 2007
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Regarding the US routes l have lived in Florida for the past 30 years and travel home to Manchester every six weeks, and have never paid such low fares as are being offered at the moment - example next week for Orlando/London return Manchester/Orlando it was just $518.00 including tax, and for Christmas I have booked 23rd Dec back 8Jan MCO/MAN/MCO for just $538 incl tax. the lowest I can remember paying for years!
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Thomas Cook
Mauritius confirmed on RoutesOnline, starts November 15 next year. The term they use is "bi-weekly" which I assume means fortnightly?
MT3512 MAN2230 – 1405+1MRU 332
MT3513 MRU1605 – 0035+1MAN 332
MT3512 MAN2230 – 1405+1MRU 332
MT3513 MRU1605 – 0035+1MAN 332
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July CAA stats
After the ratherdismal figures posted by Olton Pete for the US carriers, here a are a few more upbeat numbers.
Firstly, Hainan; I agree the figure of 88%. Excellent.
CX: although a slight fall of 1% in pax, the LF was 95.2%
SV: Seat guru doesn't give a capacity for the B789 but I've estimated a LF of 81%
EK with 82,056 pax averaged 441 per flight which with certain assumptions is a LF of 88%
EY was up 2% with an average load of 357 (not sure of the a/c mix)
QR was up 30% with an average load of 252 but that's assuming the 3rd flight operated every Mon. and Sat. and that 2 flights operated all Fridays (only 1 flight on some recent Fridays).
After the ratherdismal figures posted by Olton Pete for the US carriers, here a are a few more upbeat numbers.
Firstly, Hainan; I agree the figure of 88%. Excellent.
CX: although a slight fall of 1% in pax, the LF was 95.2%
SV: Seat guru doesn't give a capacity for the B789 but I've estimated a LF of 81%
EK with 82,056 pax averaged 441 per flight which with certain assumptions is a LF of 88%
EY was up 2% with an average load of 357 (not sure of the a/c mix)
QR was up 30% with an average load of 252 but that's assuming the 3rd flight operated every Mon. and Sat. and that 2 flights operated all Fridays (only 1 flight on some recent Fridays).
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Saudia's website shows 298 on their 789s (24 business, 274 cattle)
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October traffic / rolling figures / ain't no stopping SQ
When the polls close at midnight I predict an impressive set of figures (pax and ATMs) for MAN this October. Both sets of figures have been in double-digits for most of the month, and this last weekend saw over 20% year on year growth for Friday alone. I can't think of any unusual seasonal factors this year, or misaligned school holidays, so I think we are just seeing a continuing strong trend. Despite my caution last month I do think that the rolling 25M pax p.a. may well be reached when October's figures are published, or if not, very close.
With the ACL Winter 16/17 schedule showing more double-digit capacity hikes, I currently see no sign of the Brexecutioner's axe being wielded in MAN's direction.
On another note - it is great to see both SQ51 ad SQ52 in the air on Flight Radar 24, routing to/from MAN with no European stop any more.
With the ACL Winter 16/17 schedule showing more double-digit capacity hikes, I currently see no sign of the Brexecutioner's axe being wielded in MAN's direction.
On another note - it is great to see both SQ51 ad SQ52 in the air on Flight Radar 24, routing to/from MAN with no European stop any more.
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The trend does seem to be continuing upwards.
Back to some of the concerns on some US routes, as said, a LOT has been added in the past 18 months with more to come, so, it was obvious the passenger figures would be in a slight state of flux while it settles in.
What's worth remembering, we now have one of the largest USA programmes MAN has ever seen, and more destinations/flights than a lot of European 'big hitters', and said big hitters can fill their flights with transfer passengers (such as Dublin) while the majority of MAN passengers are O&D with only a small amount of feed, predominantly from flybe.
Then we need to consider the fact that the majority of MAN pax are outbound, and in quite uncertain times with the £/$ rates, it's a big ask.
So, to fill up all those flights is going to be a tough call, it's going to need a bit of patience, but, as long as all the carriers can weather the turbulence, it should come out the other side in relatively good health.
I do expect a casualty or 2 along the way, notably PIA switching JFK to Leipzig (but that doesn't affect MAN in a big way anyway), and unfortunately I don't think the UA flight to Washington will return after next summer (barring a miracle), but, we should have a new USA destination announced soon, and of course Norwegian have yet to play their hand (they have said NYC is a route but we await any further news).
The next year or 2 is going to be interesting, and if we can keep the majority of what we have in tact until we get pre-clearance, then we should be ok.
Back to some of the concerns on some US routes, as said, a LOT has been added in the past 18 months with more to come, so, it was obvious the passenger figures would be in a slight state of flux while it settles in.
What's worth remembering, we now have one of the largest USA programmes MAN has ever seen, and more destinations/flights than a lot of European 'big hitters', and said big hitters can fill their flights with transfer passengers (such as Dublin) while the majority of MAN passengers are O&D with only a small amount of feed, predominantly from flybe.
Then we need to consider the fact that the majority of MAN pax are outbound, and in quite uncertain times with the £/$ rates, it's a big ask.
So, to fill up all those flights is going to be a tough call, it's going to need a bit of patience, but, as long as all the carriers can weather the turbulence, it should come out the other side in relatively good health.
I do expect a casualty or 2 along the way, notably PIA switching JFK to Leipzig (but that doesn't affect MAN in a big way anyway), and unfortunately I don't think the UA flight to Washington will return after next summer (barring a miracle), but, we should have a new USA destination announced soon, and of course Norwegian have yet to play their hand (they have said NYC is a route but we await any further news).
The next year or 2 is going to be interesting, and if we can keep the majority of what we have in tact until we get pre-clearance, then we should be ok.