MANCHESTER 1
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Ametyst1 -
Just some thoughts concerning your proposals for joining a long-haul flight connection at LHR on the basis of routing LPL-DUB-LHR-XYZ.
Most travellers undertaking a long-haul journey will require at least one item of luggage checked into the hold. Whilst you can indeed fly LPL-DUB on a base fare of £19.99 each way, you will of course need to pay additionally for baggage. One checked item costs £18 for 20kg or £25 for 25kg per flight.
BA845 is scheduled to leave DUB at 10:15, implying boarding around 10:00 at the latest. Given that you will require two seperate tickets for your journey (presumably LPL-DUB and DUB-LHR-XYZ to secure the cost savings) your flights at DUB are not linked for connecting / baggage purposes. Thus you would need to go to baggage reclaim for your luggage and exit through arrivals. Then you would need to check-in your luggage again for DUB-LHR-XYZ (you must be right on the time limit for this?). After this, you proceed through to departures via DUB security which on every occasion on my recent trips has itself been a slower process than the equivalent at MAN T3. Then you head to gate, some of which are afew minutes walk away at DUB. If, as a result of this process, you miss your rather tight connection to LHR the entire risk is borne by yourself. These are not linked bookings, so you lose your money and must re-book an on-the-day fare at your own expense (usually very costly).
If this ruse has consistently worked for you then you're one very fortunate chap. I don't think I would invite this level of stress during the course of my own travels. Whilst your evident dislike of all things MAN may make this journey option appealing to you, I suggest that you are in a small minority indeed. For travel between LPL and LHR alone with hand-luggage only I could see this connection working. But in post 4255 you claim to do this for long-haul travel. Out of interest, how often has this particular itinerary actually worked out for you?
Just some thoughts concerning your proposals for joining a long-haul flight connection at LHR on the basis of routing LPL-DUB-LHR-XYZ.
Most travellers undertaking a long-haul journey will require at least one item of luggage checked into the hold. Whilst you can indeed fly LPL-DUB on a base fare of £19.99 each way, you will of course need to pay additionally for baggage. One checked item costs £18 for 20kg or £25 for 25kg per flight.
fly on EI193 arriving Dublin at 09:10 (but always early normally 08:50), transfer onto BA845 arriving Heathrow at 11:45.
If this ruse has consistently worked for you then you're one very fortunate chap. I don't think I would invite this level of stress during the course of my own travels. Whilst your evident dislike of all things MAN may make this journey option appealing to you, I suggest that you are in a small minority indeed. For travel between LPL and LHR alone with hand-luggage only I could see this connection working. But in post 4255 you claim to do this for long-haul travel. Out of interest, how often has this particular itinerary actually worked out for you?
Another question do you book flights or does your company travel
providor? Even if you could book the flights right through not allowing for
fares it would probably show as an underconnection and the airlines
would not guarantee your baggage or even yourself. and if you are
so money concious can you change your flights if you miss or do you have to rebook.
Having worked in travel for a good number of years and had
knowingly sold an under-connection where a pax could have lost a lot of money
would have promted a visit to the managers office with no tea no biscuits
Ian
providor? Even if you could book the flights right through not allowing for
fares it would probably show as an underconnection and the airlines
would not guarantee your baggage or even yourself. and if you are
so money concious can you change your flights if you miss or do you have to rebook.
Having worked in travel for a good number of years and had
knowingly sold an under-connection where a pax could have lost a lot of money
would have promted a visit to the managers office with no tea no biscuits
Ian
Last edited by chaps1954; 20th Feb 2016 at 14:09.
Another question do you book flights or does your company travel
providor? Even if you could book the flights right through not allowing for
fares it would probably show as an underconnection an the airlines
would not guarantee your baggage or even yourself. and if you are so money concious can you change your flights if you miss or do you have to rebook. Having worked in travel for a good number of years and had
knowingly sold an under-connection where a pax could have lost a lot of money would have promted a visit to the managers office with no tea no biscuits
Ian
providor? Even if you could book the flights right through not allowing for
fares it would probably show as an underconnection an the airlines
would not guarantee your baggage or even yourself. and if you are so money concious can you change your flights if you miss or do you have to rebook. Having worked in travel for a good number of years and had
knowingly sold an under-connection where a pax could have lost a lot of money would have promted a visit to the managers office with no tea no biscuits
Ian
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T3 Capacity Crunch (Near Term)
They surely couldn't expand T3 whilst the TP work on T2 is being undertaken.
No doubt you are aware that during the run-ins to both Summer 2014 and Summer 2015 there were strong rumours that Ryanair would base a larger number of aircraft at MAN than eventually proved to be the case. My impression is that the desire to expand is genuine from Ryanair's point of view, but they will only do so if their flights can be accommodated on T3 terminal stands. Remote parking and bussing simply doesn't cut it for them. In Summer 2015, there was great confidence expressed from some quarters that Ryanair would base 9 or 10 aircraft at MAN ... the eventual number was 8 (same as August 2014). And the T3 stands were fully subscribed each night.
Ryanair has recently stated that they anticipate 33% growth at MAN 'next year' (did they mean 2016 or 2017 by this?)*, and as you know, another site has again discussed an increase to 10 x based B738's. Aircraft visiting from other RYR bases can only do so much. FlyBe (incl Loganair) is growing too, whilst Oneworld (BAW, AAL, FIN, SUS, IBS) and Air France/KLM also operate from T3. Also Vueling and Adria.
Given the above, can MAG afford to leave T3 essentially unchanged until beyond 2020? Not if they want to harness the growth offered by Ryanair and FlyBe. Something has to give, and soon.
What are the options for a quick fix? Relocating Oneworld and Air France/KLM to T2 would be ideal, but those carriers appear very happy to remain in T3. Can they be persuaded to move? In the longer term (with US PDC established in T2) probably yes. But something needs to happen well before then.
Another option is early removal of the airside demarcation between T1 and T3 allowing much greater flexibility of terminal stand allocation. This will happen eventually anyway, as the plan is for the entire terminals complex to be linked throughout airside. Early linkage of T1 and T3 could be MAG's best bet at this stage.
Obviously, the third option would be to construct / enable additional terminal stands at T3, dusting off old plans which allow for this. But - as you say - MAG would be understandably reluctant to do this in parallel with the TP over at T2.
But, if MAG wishes to retain the tailwind offered by MAN's most rapidly-growing based carrier (Ryanair), doing nothing till 2020 or later is simply not an option. Ryanair and FlyBe growth will stagnate at MAN if T3's capacity limitations physically curtail their ability to expand. The crunch already looms. A solution is required within months, not years. It will be interesting to observe how MAN intends to address the challenge ahead.
*EDIT: Having read another source, I now believe the RYR growth projection relates to the 2016/7 financial year.
Last edited by Shed-on-a-Pole; 21st Feb 2016 at 11:47. Reason: RYR growth timeframe revisited.
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T3
Is there any modelling of the impact of a potential Brexit? I haven't seen anything bandied around on PPRUNE and yet the airlines and airports must surely have undertaken some analysis covering a best to worse case scenario. Any CAPEX - including T3 expansion - must have identified Brexit as a risk.
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On BREXIT ...
As Britain is not a signatory to the Schengen Agreement there should be no requirement for physical changes to the immigration infrastructure at UK airports. We have passport checks and customs in place and correctly channeled already.
I would not expect BREXIT to result in any significant change in levels of demand for air travel. For one thing, Britain is likely to remain inside the Single European Market. I don't sense any measurable public objection to this ... the 'Common Market' (as opposed to Federal Europe governed from Brussels and financed by the Euro) is what we signed up for originally. And, despite pre-ballot rhetoric, the Single Market suits both sides very well. Euroland exports far more to us than we do to them. They would be foolish to jeopardise tariff-free access to 'Treasure Island' (as we are known). One positive is that Britain would be free to rebuild trade relations with partners outside the EU, including former Commonwealth countries. This would be good news for air travel demand.
I do not consider BREXIT a threat to MAN's operation at any level.
As Britain is not a signatory to the Schengen Agreement there should be no requirement for physical changes to the immigration infrastructure at UK airports. We have passport checks and customs in place and correctly channeled already.
I would not expect BREXIT to result in any significant change in levels of demand for air travel. For one thing, Britain is likely to remain inside the Single European Market. I don't sense any measurable public objection to this ... the 'Common Market' (as opposed to Federal Europe governed from Brussels and financed by the Euro) is what we signed up for originally. And, despite pre-ballot rhetoric, the Single Market suits both sides very well. Euroland exports far more to us than we do to them. They would be foolish to jeopardise tariff-free access to 'Treasure Island' (as we are known). One positive is that Britain would be free to rebuild trade relations with partners outside the EU, including former Commonwealth countries. This would be good news for air travel demand.
I do not consider BREXIT a threat to MAN's operation at any level.
Not much to argue with there, apart from the EU will not want to encourage the remaining members to get ideas, so won't make it too easy. One final point before we get punted off to JetBlast -
By whom?
'Treasure Island' (as we are known).
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By whom?
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BREXIT
Shed, I am well aware of the UKs non Schengen status, but I would be astonished if UKIP et al are happy to retain the status quo when it comes to access to the UK for east Europeans in particular. To the uninformed man in the street, immigration appears to be the big issue. That will impact on airlines and airports to differing degrees, depending on their business mix. To simply assume that nothing will happen when we are potentially looking at one of the biggest changes in our lifetime would be foolhardy and yet I see no column inches here.
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Depart from my home at 07:00 to Liverpool Airport, through security and fly on EI193 arriving Dublin at 09:10 (but always early normally 08:50), transfer onto BA845 arriving Heathrow at 11:45.
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access to the UK for east Europeans in particular.
If MAN were to lose all its current customers to Eastern Europe overnight, the hit would be far smaller than that resulting from the issues affecting Egypt and Tunisia as we speak. Bookings to Turkey are way down also. But none of these market-specific hits have negated the need for infrastructure renewal and expansion of facilities at MAN. Changes in traffic flows to Eastern Europe alone certainly won't determine that need either. DSA and LPL are exposed to the Eastern European market sector to a far greater extent than MAN.
EDIT: Just seen that the EU in/out referendum will be held on June 23rd. So any planning tweaks required as a consequence of the outcome can be taken into account afew weeks from now anyway, well before detailed work on the TP becomes apparent.
Last edited by Shed-on-a-Pole; 20th Feb 2016 at 17:19.
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A disappointing piece from a local MP who could be and should be talking about MAN for the benefit of his constituents.
Graham Brady: 'Never mind Brexit, we need more runways' - Telegraph
Graham Brady: 'Never mind Brexit, we need more runways' - Telegraph
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Shed-on-a-Pole
No need to worry, the UK will not be leaving the EU.
That's very extreme travel plans. We know APD is not totally responsible for BA pricing strategy on UK domestic originating services.
Are we still talking about this chestnut, MAN has capacity in runway terms for another 20+ million passengers, another runway at LHR will not change this sooner people realize this the better. MAN are not capitalizing on LHR now and will not in the future, all current growth is largely Europe with a few long haul services in the mix.
No need to worry, the UK will not be leaving the EU.
Ametyst1 -
A disappointing piece from a local MP who could be and should be talking about MAN for the benefit of his constituents.
Graham Brady: 'Never mind Brexit, we need more runways' - Telegraph
Graham Brady: 'Never mind Brexit, we need more runways' - Telegraph
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Shed-on-a-Pole
No need to worry, the UK will not be leaving the EU.
No need to worry, the UK will not be leaving the EU.
On Graham Brady ... in reading his views, note the line: "Graham Brady is chairman of the 1922 committee". That is all we need to know. He will voice the national party line, not the narrow air travel interests of folks in Altrincham and Sale West.
Last edited by Shed-on-a-Pole; 20th Feb 2016 at 19:30.
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Shed, with respect the whole point of the 22 committee is that it doesn't merely 'voice the party line' (indeed it didn't even permit frontbenchers to attend until 2010); it represents the views of backbenchers (often the best local campaigners). A third runway at LHR is about as popular as a cup of cold sick amongst a significant number of Tory MPs, and if he was merely interested in politicking then he probably wouldn't voice a locally unpopular view in public.
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Hi Shed,
I usually use hand luggage only for my trips. I am used to it and I pack well, haha! When I do have luggage to check-in then, of course, I would use other options.
I check-in on-line and I am already in possession of my BA boarding pass when I arrive in Dublin. I have never, so far, remotely have a problem and I have done the trip 5 times and 2 more times when I have connected to an Aer Lingus flight to Gatwick but that leaves Dublin 35 minutes later at 10:50.
On my return trips to Heathrow I normally get the train from Euston to Liverpool.
Yes, I take the risk if I miss the connection as I would if a train was late etc.
Chaps 1954
Hello, I book the flights myself and I am aware of MCT's at airports.
However, I will have to have a re-think after 4th May When EI Regional takeover although by that time the 10:15 Heathrow flight no longer operates but there is a later BA flight at 11:40.
Looking forward to the ATR though, lol
I usually use hand luggage only for my trips. I am used to it and I pack well, haha! When I do have luggage to check-in then, of course, I would use other options.
I check-in on-line and I am already in possession of my BA boarding pass when I arrive in Dublin. I have never, so far, remotely have a problem and I have done the trip 5 times and 2 more times when I have connected to an Aer Lingus flight to Gatwick but that leaves Dublin 35 minutes later at 10:50.
On my return trips to Heathrow I normally get the train from Euston to Liverpool.
Yes, I take the risk if I miss the connection as I would if a train was late etc.
Chaps 1954
Hello, I book the flights myself and I am aware of MCT's at airports.
However, I will have to have a re-think after 4th May When EI Regional takeover although by that time the 10:15 Heathrow flight no longer operates but there is a later BA flight at 11:40.
Looking forward to the ATR though, lol
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Aero Mad - Thankyou for your comments. However, if we take to discussion of our differing views on political sub-issues we will surely send this thread into meltdown! Best move on. ;-)
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Code:
MAN are not capitalising on LHR now and will not in the future, all current growth is largely Europe with a few long haul services in the mix.
China and India are vast and as the middle classes and traders expand they will demand to travel more quickly and largely within their repective regions.
Parts of both countries are completely inaccessible by any other method of travel.
And as for Hi-Speed rail its planned in China within the lowland Han dominated areas cepting the very political Lhasa Line !
IMO growth in Long haul will slow or be driven by leisure /discretionary travel demands.
Manchester is well placed to leverage this market (within region)
Further the migration flows especially within the EU (The Mail/Telegraph - Hate line) this will also slow pretty soon imo.
Further afield the refugee crisis from the fires of the middle east is another thing and what is currently happening frightens the hell out of me - We are on the cusp of WW3 !
IMO growth in Long haul will slow or be driven by leisure /discretionary travel demands.
Spain holiday prices soar as Britons avoid Turkey following terrorist attacks | News & Advice | Travel | The Independent
We're also seeing more sabre rattling in the Middle East with Saudis building up their forces along with the Russians. Middle East carriers have invested heavily in the UK market over the last decade, lets hope that bubble doesn't burst as well.
