MANCHESTER 1

[SWBKCB]

This is akin to Sainsbury's, Tesco and ASDA sharing the same marketing boss.

It might be if Sainsbury's, Tesco and ASDA were divisions of a single organisation - last time I looked, they weren't!

I admire your faith in the "Northern Powerhouse" - we'll see.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

It might be if Sainsbury's, Tesco and ASDA were divisions of a single organisation - last time I looked, they weren't!

Hmmm ... I think you slightly missed the point there! MAN, STN and EMA are (should be) pitching for much of the same cargo business. These are three of the top four UK airports for flown cargo (LHR is the other one). And they're all marketed to the industry by the same executive!

I admire your faith in the "Northern Powerhouse" - we'll see.

No, faith doesn't come into it. But the NP is the first positive initiative aimed at developing this region for quite some time. If we back the idea with commitment and enthusiasm it may just succeed. But if we dismiss it with cynicism we will remain ignored in favour of further dominance by the SE.

[chaps1954]

The cargo market hit a very large problem from 2008 in the recession
Cathay Cargo our largest cargo operator hit very bad times as did many
cargo operators, just look how many operators don`t exist now or have
cut back dramatically

SWBKCB
I think you may well be way of track

Ian

[Bagso]

Happy New Year Skip.

Glad you are back and thanks for providing the opportunity to respond.

Excellent analysis as ever by Lord Shed, my observations re DUB, EDI and BHX were less about the meteoric growth of Manchester but the accelerated increases albeit in certain niche areas at these other airports on the MAN periphery.

Within the UK Manchester can no longer be regarded as the "automatic" airport of choice outside London, for long haul expansion, MAG need to be very aware of that.As Shed suggests the excellent route development team have done a great job but they do need to keep the momentum going in the face of a pretty fierce onslaught by competitor opportunities!

It is a concern that these airports "appear " to have attained some pretty astonishing expansion in a third of the time it has taken Manchester to build up its network, that said this probably has more to do with now savvy passengers avoiding Heathrow and hubs in Europe and taking advantage of competitive fairs and excellent levels of customer service, above and beyond what complacent legacy carriers offer.

Back to Manchester, as well as new routes, retention is equally important and whoever is crunching pax numbers on established routes needs to make sure that those routes where load factors are a concern, are given some robust marketing via MAG themselves.

If Shed is correct economies of scale "appear" to suggest a singular cargo exec based at STN to say that is a worry is an understatement!

I sincerely hope the same is not true of the marketing director although it might well explain some well documented gaping holes in current output.

"Twittering" inane rubbish from Saffron Walden neither informs nor expands passenger knowledge about what Manchester has to offer in terms of its route network.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Within MAG, Manchester is the "go too" Airport of choice re long haul !

What we want to see in 2016 is more expansion at MAN, lets not have any internal tactical blunders where MAG start offering dilution of choice and alternatives which are at odds with what the markets wants !

Cargo may have no choice but passengers do....

[SWBKCB]

The analogy only works if STN and EMA are regarded as competitors - surely MAG see them as complementary and are competing with the likes of LHR, LGW, AMS outside the group.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

The analogy only works if STN and EMA are regarded as competitors - surely MAG see them as complementary

OK, so you replied without reading my original remarks on this topic. Take a look at post #3978 (previous page) second-to-last paragraph. Saves me typing it again.

[MAN777]

I think MAG group has bigger troubles on the horizon

Iran relations with Saudi have hit rock bottom causing unease on world markets and oil price rises again.

Also China economic woes continue as trading was halted as losses hit 7% yesterday

Many Chinese have stopped travelling, factories are closing and investment being cut back.

All of these issues could put the brakes back on again for MAG just as it was looking rosy

[Mr Mac]

MAN 777
I think one of the concern to the MD3 may well be the geopolitics, and concerns over the routing from the Gulf to northern Europe ie over Iran. Oil price rises will if anything strengthen the Gulf economies, but if they do not rise too much it will not have a retrograde effect on western economies.
With regards the Chinese Economy it is slumping currently but they do have many investments outside of Mainland China which still require visits as well as a large student population, so I do not know if this will off set the concern you listed. I would say that I question if there is enough demand to support the additional Chinese flight over and above the existing CX flight but we will have to see.


Regards
Mr Mac

[MAN777]

What about Chinese investments in MAG developments is that safe ??

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Happy New Year Skip.
Glad you are back and thanks for providing the opportunity to respond.

Thanks! Keep fighting your corner as ever Bagso !

Are we conflating cargo as main deck and lower deck together? Main deck cargo remains a VERY challeging environment, so much so that Air France are getting out and even Singapore see no point in replacing their B744Fs as the B77Ws can take up the slack. With Cathay operating B77Ws on HKG-MAN I don't think the freighters will be back soon.

Also one thing is sure in aviation, it comes in bubbles, feast or famine, one year everyone is off to Madrid or Prague, next year no one is even offering the destination.
MAN and STN are two remarkably different business models, STN remains overwhelmingly Ryanair with some lashings of others and some proper freight with FedEx, Cargolux, Qatar, Asiana and anyone else who won't pony up for an off peak LHR slot. Any long haul carrier offering STN will have to bring something amazing to the table to succeed, only Emirates is, in my view, a medium term possibility.

As for China, one never knows for better or worse, but their stock market is crashing as we type. That's the thing about bubbles, they go pop and leave you covered in goo.

China share trading halted after 7% plunge - BBC News

[Suzeman]

In my opinion, his dismissal (and that of others) was in no way justified by his professional track record at MAN

The loss of his expertise and contacts (and that of his colleagues) was a blow which set Manchester Airport back. I'm sure some of his successors were fine executives too, but that vacancy should never have arisen.

Shed

I think you are on a very sticky wicket with statements like that. Who knows why any of these nine lost their jobs except management at the time - and no I wasn't one of them. It's not our job to speculate either as to the performance of any of them - unless you were personally involved as the manager of one of them ?

I'll just say that for the six year period after this, the passenger throughput increased from 19.3 million to 22.4 million and the flown freight throughput increased by around 60%, so I'm not sure how this

was a blow which set Manchester Airport back

Add in the difficult times after the Twin Towers disaster and ever increasing security costs, and the early naughties were a difficult time for airports and airlines, so to achieve such growth wasn't bad by any means. That's not to say that everything was hunky dory though.

You must look at this in the context of 2001 when the Airport was fully regulated by CAA Economic Regulation Group. Their review every 5 years meant that they and the airlines were able to forensically go over all the airport's budgets and balance sheets and query things in loads of detail. There was therefore considerable pressure on the airport from both the regulator and the customer airlines to reduce its relatively high costs and something had to be done. There was shareholder pressure too. Re-organising staff structures is one way that costs were reduced, slashing budgets was another. Capital projects were subject to intense scrutiny on all sides.

Costs were reduced and fees to airlines capped or reduced and you can argue that this stimulated additional business, including embracing low cost airlines at prices they were prepared to pay. I would suggest that this formed the base for the airline profile you have today at MAN.

Declines in throughput only started to occur around the time of the financial crisis and it has taken a decade for the passenger figures to recover. Not so flown cargo throughput, because as I posted earlier the supply chain model has changed since then and as Skipness notes, the all freighter environment is now very challenging.

The Northern Powerhouse requires access to markets and Manchester will be a major part of that. I will re-iterate again that

What is important for the region is that the North's shippers have enough options to get their goods to market in a timely and cost effective manner. For some a consolidation at MAN and a lorry transit to other airports will produce a cheaper rate and they are prepared to put up with whatever the time penalty is.
However, it is certainly of concern if the current marketing set up is dissuading airlines who see MAN as a viable option for an all freight service.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

I think you are on a very sticky wicket with statements like that. Who knows why any of these nine lost their jobs

One of them (not GG) told me exactly why they had lost their jobs. He was understandably livid. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on this one, Suzeman. Good people were dismissed without just cause that day ... from across the operation. And not all the replacements were a resounding success either.

I have followed MAN's development over many years now. This episode qualifies as one of the most shameful events in the entire history of the airport.

the all freighter environment is now very challenging.

Agreed, but we can cite other airports which have not endured the scale of collapse seen at MAN. Economic realities apply to them too. And when a new B747-8F operator (initially B747-400F) publicly expresses a desire to operate from MAN, one must deduce that they have identified a market opportunity here. Let's hope they receive all due encouragement and support rather than a solicitation to become a "me too" cargo operator at STN? I wonder where they will end up?

I don't ask MAG to perform miracles re flown-cargo from MAN, but I do ask them to make an effort.

[Suzeman]

And now for something completely different -Norwegian

From the latest copy of Flight International, the budget carrier’s chief executive, Bjørn Kjos, outlined plans to use the 737 Max from services from Europe to airports” such as White Plains and Stewart International".

He goes on that the Max could start flights to the USA from Manchester and Brum as a widebody is too big for such services. Kjos also says Manchester is a “very interesting area, especially if you think about India”.

[Mr Mac]

MAN 777
All investments have to be reviewed periodically going on performance which can be good or bad (just ask anyone dealing with UK banks over the last 8 years ) but the Chinese famously play a long game (Mao when asked about the influence of Napoleon on European Politics famously said in the 1960,s that it was too early to say !) on investment's unlike some I could mention. However your point is valid, but if you look at the portfolio of Chinese investment overseas then you would appreciate that it would be difficult for them to cut and run, and so far I have not heard of them yet doing so. I do believe the "bubble " as you say will have to deflate some what but as long as we in the west keep asking for cheaper products then they will keep churning them out, even if they have an internal slow down. We created the Chinese economy largely by our demand for cheaper products initially and I have yet to see any large change in western purchasing to change this.


Cheers
Mr Mac

[Betablockeruk]

Poacher to Gamekeeper

Manchester Airport Group recruits public affairs specialist Graeme Elliott from Heathrow | Gorkana

MAG recruits public affairs specialist Graeme Elliott from Heathrow!

He'll need some serious electric shock treatment to get rid of that London brainwashing!

[Bagso]

Only 5th Jan and time to dig out my copy of the Halluluah chorus. .....

If Heathrow is a national asset at 75m pax so indeed is Manchester given its catchment at 25m !

Hopefully recognition at last that MAG needs to be batting at a much higher profile in the media especially reference Manchester.

Given Heathrow has been joined at the hip to various media organisations and political commentators this is an astute move and excellent news !

......as long as it's not driven by an STN motive !

[viscount702]

He'll need some serious electric shock treatment to get rid of that London brainwashing

!

Why

When is the penny going to drop. STN is the most important airport to MAG not MAN I am sad to say.

MAG is a business pure and simple and MAG sees STN as the airport with most potential for its business and to make money and it will have priority for investment (which it is getting all the time anyway).

STN is close to London has London in its name and is a far superior airport both airside and landside and far easier to expand than MAN and has a large catchment area

The 1Bn TP for MAN is along drawn out affair not yet started and I suspect will be scaled back or "paused" at the first hint of a downturn.

I wish it were otherwise but when MAG bought STN very cheaply as it turned out MAN was always going to be the runner up.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

STN is close to London has London in its name and is a far superior airport both airside and landside and far easier to expand than MAN and has a large catchment area

Of course STN is considered a key-asset by MAG as you suggest. But STN has its limitations. As Ryanair's largest base, STN is not an attractive environment for any rival short-haul carrier to consider in direct competition with them. Ryanair have the wherewithall and ruthlessness to crush challengers. This limits short-haul expansion principally to carriers on niche routes not served by RYR, some dedicated holiday flights (TCX, TOM etc) and some competition by EasyJet to the main Mediterranean resorts. There is other limited short-haul presence, but it is unlikely to develop into much more than that.

STN is very strong on cargo and executive jet traffic, areas which coincidentally do not interest Ryanair.

STN has a very poor record of attracting and retaining scheduled long-haul. LHR will always dominate in the SE market and LGW is top choice for overspill. STN will likely win a service from one of the MEB3, and no doubt some leisure-orientated scheduled expansion from TCX and TOM-type operations. But progress much beyond that seems a long way off. Maybe they could lobby niche long-haul players such as Norwegian and National Airlines.

Meanwhile, MAN has a much broader base of business from no-frills through European legacy carriers to both business and leisure long-haul. MAN should offer an average of 34 long-haul departures per day based on projections for S16 ... not quite the lost-cause you describe. STN has its attractions, but MAN is a long way from being chucked in the bin by MAG!

The 1Bn TP for MAN is along drawn out affair not yet started and I suspect will be scaled back or "paused" at the first hint of a downturn.

The TP is actually a very impressive and complex undertaking. Given MAN's need to remain operational throughout the construction period, the TP will be completed in phases over 10 years. That is pretty good considering full operations continuing at the airport throughout. No major construction project of this size - even in a sterile environment - appears in days. As you say, the MAN TP probably would be paused in the event of a major recession. That is actually one of the advantages of the modular approach. Flexibility is a good thing in a highly-volatile business such as commercial aviation. And if recession does strike, don't expect STN to be immune from defensive measures to protect revenue either.

[bayer328]

Stansted

I am not a poster, on this site as such but having had the misfortune to have used Stansted a few times in recent years i have to say i see very little scope for this airport to expand and pull in legacy carriers, especially since Gatwick, cant hold on to them for too long.

[LAX_LHR]

STN is close to London has London in its name and is a far superior airport both airside and landside

You obviously haven't been to STN recently?

I have had the mispleasure of traveling through STN twice since August 2015, and I would go as far to say I'd rather use T3 at MAN, and I'm not a fan of T3 either. I just hope that as STN has just been remodelled by MAG, it isn't a sign of what the expansion of T2 will look.

In terms of new routes, get ready for a period of announcements from about 2 weeks from now. We should be having 2-3 routes confirmed that we know of, and at least 3 new routes that have not been discussed on here to my knowledge.

We may not have had the headline grabbing news that other airports drawing in multiple new airlines have enjoyed, but, compared to a few airports, our growth will outstrip them by a large degree.

I know we are 5 days in already, but, Bring on 2016!