MANCHESTER 1

[LAX_LHR]

DL/VS and AA could be the cases of seeing higher premium demand.

DL are using their B767-300 with the larger J cabin on the JFK run next summer, VS A330 has a larger upper class than the DL B767 it replaced (DL J class obviously), and, AA made a point of using the B767 with the new business on the JFK route.

[BDLBOS]

Ah yes, MAN did so well when BA was based. Best at lost luggage, best at flying the smallest planes known to MAN and Best for transatlantic plane breakdowns.

First Class. Market changed a long time ago, someone needs to keep up. Three class is now Biz/Econ+/Econ.

LHR R3 - MAN can stand on it's own two feet. LHR needs a 3rd Runway.

Lady from Liverpool Uni. Doing a great Job pushing her Uni. Most students via LHR, then train or shuttle via MAN I guess. Growth in China, guess who gets direct China links next year? Liv promotion Uni guys on tours in Asia have shown MAN as nearest Intl airport. Bagso, you need to send her flowers not put her down.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Let's just brush under the carpet the fact that 4 carriers do currently offer a first class cabin from Manchester.........

Currently I see Emirates and Singapore, Qatar only offer F while the A346 remains but they're going two class as we speak. Do the three class QR A330s use MAN?

Who am I missing?

[Una Due Tfc]

Originally Posted by chaps1954

We have got to watch what effects IS have on growth as these terrorist
attacks in Tnunisia, Egypt, France and to a lesser extent Mali will put some of travelling

Ian

Many of those who would otherwise have gone to those places will holiday in the Canaries or Caribbean instead.

As an aside, now that MON have sold their heavies, I expect they are more vulnerable than TOM or TCX to what is going on in North Africa? The other 2 can just offer more Cancun, Barbados etc to compensate.

[MANFOD]

Who am I missing?

Don't Etihad offer First on the A346, although I appreciate it's only temporary.
Perhaps LAX can confirm or not.

[Betablockeruk]

Business was almost full on EY 777 MAN-AUH-MAN earlier this month. Only counted 1 or 2 empty seats.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

Don't Etihad offer First on the A346, although I appreciate it's only temporary.

Ah was getting my EY and QR A346 mixed up, apologies.
OK so it's Emirates, Singapore and for a period Etihad. Who's the missing one?

[LAX_LHR]

Saudia also currently offer first class according to their website. Admittedly this will end in February with the arrival of the B787's.

[Shed-on-a-Pole]

LHR needs a 3rd Runway.

Operationally there is a convincing case for this. However, the real issue is the quoted cost of making it happen. The word 'exorbitant' doesn't do it justice. And the support works likely to be taxpayer funded amount to between Ł6Bn and Ł20Bn dependent on source. Extraordinarily large numbers. And all headed for the SE yet again. Hence the robust opposition.

Most students via LHR, then train or shuttle via MAN I guess. Growth in China,

The long-term Chinese student who lodges with my brother's family is routinely booked with Lufthansa PEK-MUC-MAN. Travel arrangements are made by a large agency which handles all the logistics for Chinese students attending courses in the UK. This Lufthansa routing is pretty standard for that agency. They don't generally route their NW England students via LHR.

Bagso, you need to send her flowers not put her down.

Aha ... so Bagso has been outed as a vet! Go on Bagso, put her down. Sometimes it is the kindest thing to do!

Many of those who would otherwise have gone to those places will holiday in the Canaries or Caribbean instead.

Ideally so, but the large tour operators can struggle to contract accommodation stock of the required standard in popular destinations at short notice. The good hotels are spoken for, the poor ones will undermine the operators' reputation for quality. They can opt to leave some capacity unreplaced rather than risk widespread customer complaints. Another concern is that Egyptian resorts were actually very cheap destinations on the ground. The Caribbean is generally more aspirational and US Dollar denominated for tourism purposes, so comes with much higher prices. Many former Egypt beach devotees will be priced out of these alternatives. Let's hope the big companies can square the circle.

[Bagso]

Very interesting re The FT and BA comment re Manchester.

It's precisely the subject I addressed on the Heathrow thread and dare I say it reinforced by this piece in the media.

The clamour for runway 3 is I believe based on connectivity using the current model with BA and its connections to the regions.

A number of posters on the LHR thread have suggested,somewhat flippantly in my view, this could quite easily be replaced by EZY, Flybe or BMIR should BA be squeezed out or retract to long haul. Maybe it could but I'm not sure that is what the current supporters of Heathrow 3 have signed up for.

Absolutely nothing wrong with those 3 airlines btw but could the seamless model in situ now be replaced easily ?

Maybe it could, but is that what Glasgow Chamber of Commerce really want ?

It shows how much weight BA still carry on in the media!
They simply have to be part of the process re runway 3

[PPRuNeUser0176]

Re the Delta,their website shows 221 outbound and 421 inbound. Also the departure time from MAN seems to keep changing from 1250 to 1100 to 1115.

Can you check if possible to see whats what.

many thanks.

Latest update has 10.45 arrival, 13.45 departure, flight numbers still odd.

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

The clamour for runway 3 is I believe based on connectivity using the current model with BA connections to the regions.

Genuine question, given IAG don't want LHR opened up to competition anymore than BA wanted VS or BR at LHR at all, and also given Willie Walsh publically saying he doesn't see it happening and even if it does he thinks the price is too high, (Shed is at one with the man) and also any new regional connections would at most be < 20 rotations max, how does that drive a business case for a whole new runway? It's a political argument not a business case, I think. The money to pay for any new tarmac won't be made in a cut throat domestic market.

When BA flew out of MAN long haul, they offered F on the TriStar, then the B763 and in later years as Club ate into the F market, dropped F in favour of a dedicated two class B763 offering CY only. Perhaps leave LHR to the LHR thread maybe? I have given up as there's nothing new to say.

The Delta JFK flights are odd as all outbound transatlantics are supposed to be in the DL400* range as they're all out of T4, the return flights were not so numbered. It makes no sense to me but the idea was to help pax get the terminal right.

[Ringwayman]

Puttiing the EDI/GLA growth in perspective...
6 million more passengers in the last 5 years. I've a slight dispute with those figures...

The figures for those airports in 2010 and the 12 month rolling total to Sept 2015

GLA: 6.52 million => 8.51 million. UP 1.99 million (30.5% growth)
EDI: 8.59 million => 10.88 million. UP 2.29 million (26.66% growth)
MAN: 17.66 million => 22.85 million. UP 5.19 million (29.39% growth)


So combined "Central Scotland" was 2.55 million passengers behind MAN in 2010. Now they are 3.46 million behind.

[Fairdealfrank]

Article in today's Financial times interesting read...sorry can't post the link.
5% growth for man, however lagging behind both GLA and EDI with 13.7 and 9.1 % growth. Still the future is looking good at Manchester. Would be nice to see some of the routes talked about starting, filling some missing holes in the Man network.

Both GLA and EDI are starting from much lower pax numbers, so MAN remains the UK's third busy airport, and needs to keep up the good work.

LHR R3 - MAN can stand on it's own two feet. LHR needs a 3rd Runway.

Indeed it does, and a fourth as well, but it looks like pigs will fly first.

Lady from Liverpool Uni. Doing a great Job pushing her Uni. Most students via LHR, then train or shuttle via MAN I guess. Growth in China, guess who gets direct China links next year? Liv promotion Uni guys on tours in Asia have shown MAN as nearest Intl airport. Bagso, you need to send her flowers not put her down.

Very true, and with Ringway going from strength to strength, it looks very mean-spirited of those who have been Speke-bashing of late!

The clamour for runway 3 is I believe based on connectivity using the current model with BA and its connections to the regions.

No, it's about addressing the problems of an airport operating at 100+% capacity as well.

Connectivity to the regions; the need for more destinations (especially longhaul) and links to the new emerging markets; finding room for the unnamed thirty or so carriers that allegedly wish to operate to/from Heathrow; allowing carriers in the waiting room at Gatwick to move accross; the elimination of chronic congestion and delays; the ending of the secondary slot market; addressing issues of supply and demand; providing for the wishes of pax and carriers who always prefer Heathrow; providing more opportunities for connecting pax by enabling thin routes to be viable (both domestic and longhaul); these are all part of the mix.

A number of posters on the LHR thread have suggested,somewhat flippantly in my view, this could quite easily be replaced by EZY, Flybe or BMIR should BA be squeezed out or retract to long haul. Maybe it could but I'm not sure that is what the current supporters of Heathrow 3 have signed up for.

As one of the posters, let me clarify the above mis-information, this is what was actually written (note the use of the words "could" and "maybe" in the text):

"Why do you assume that BA will be the only carrier on domestic if there are 3 rwys? There could be several, not just BA, VY and U2 (which has stated an intention to base 30 aircraft at LHR). Of course if thinner routes are started, carriers with smaller aircraft than A319s will be needed, maybe BD reg, BE, T3, who can say?"

"Why do you also assume that there would be only one carrier (BA) on domestic routes?"

"U2 doesn't do interlining so it does not matter. Any carrier on a feed arrangement with one or more long haul carriers may be co-sited. There may even be more UK carriers based at LHR, shock horror."

"Expansion is so far into the future or never, so one can use imaginative thinking. Try it."

All this is speculation obviously, but the balance of probability could favour this scenario.

There seems to be two conflicting views that with three rwys at Heathrow, (1) BA would be the only carrier on BA domestic, and (2) BA won't do any domestic.

We know this is wrong as U2 has clearly stated (in evidence to Davis) that with 3 rwys at LHR, it will base 30 aircraft there and operate several shorthaul routes including domestic.

So at least two carriers on some domestic routes could be possible. The glass is half full.

Genuine question, given IAG don't want LHR opened up to competition anymore than BA wanted VS or BR at LHR at all, and also given Willie Walsh publically saying he doesn't see it happening and even if it does he thinks the price is too high, (Shed is at one with the man) and also any new regional connections would at most be < 20 rotations max, how does that drive a business case for a whole new runway? It's a political argument not a business case, I think. The money to pay for any new tarmac won't be made in a cut throat domestic market.

Clearly it is a double-edged sword for BA.

Potential greater competition is a negative, obviously.

However, the end of the problems and considerable expense of chronic congestion and the endless disruption, plus the advantage of being able to expand without having to spend millions on slots (or on carriers in order to obtain slots), are all positives.

Even with expansion, BA still has many advantages as a long standing incumbent at Heathrow and can have a healthy proportion of the new slots.

Also don't forget that new longhaul routes will need feeders, some will not be viable without it.

[Jamie2k9]

Scotland/MAN

The simple fact here is Scotland are way ahead of MAN in terms of growth rate and they should be considering shap capacity increases from FR moving to GLA, Westjet, FR/EZY big growth at EDI as well as a string of new airlines.

Everybody can make excuses and dress it up how they like by saying they are starting from a lower figure, the fact remains that all airports are starting from prior year figures and the growth rate in % terms will still come out the same.

I browse here now and again and there was nothing significant in capacity terms announced at MAN, you got a few big names in but the reality is capacity wise it isn't much when you look at the bigger picture using FR adding around 1 million if not more seats at GLA. BTW I dont need a big list of what changes happened this year.

They are growing steadily however call a spade a spade here if it was the other way round I don't think you would see such excuses been posted on GLA/EDI and here would be full of congratulations (nothing wrong with that).

As pointed out by a few there has been some big capacity increases added by based carriers in 2016 as well as a few big names arriving. Its those announcements which should deliver a much higher % increase in figures.

On a final note since RY3 approval I have never come accross such media scrutiny and moaning about articles, nobody cares as most people who read take it with a pinch of salt. Very few credible journalists around today.

Some are just a tab over sensitive about PR related to MAN when there isn't anything bad to get worked up about and when there is bad PR its usually warranted such as diversions/handling...

[Fairdealfrank]

On a final note since RY3 approval I have never come accross such media scrutiny and moaning about articles, nobody cares as most people who read take it with a pinch of salt. Very few credible journalists around today.

Hasn't been approved, the days of dither, indecision, delay and procrastination are far from over!

[7griffinjack]

Interesting to note that Thomas Cook are launching flights from Gatwick to Cape Town next winter. Hopefully this can be launched from Manchester too in the not too distant future. Goes to show that new routes are being launched by Thomas Cook from airports other than Manchester after the recent growth here.

[anothertyke]

Seems like WW took a more nuanced line re R3 at the conference yesterday. Ludicrously expensive ; challenged costs of T6, how many chandeliers can you get in a terminal; Commission got sums wrong.

But also some interesting stuff--- possibility of a different revenue stream by tolling the approach roads. Nothing against people paying for the benefits they receive.

That doesn't sound like 'over my dead body'.

[Betablockeruk]

The 2 class A380 on its way for tonight's EK19 arrival.

615 seats.....

[BDLBOS]

Jamie, don't forget that EDI and GLA are also full service airports, so will see growth from things like Diversions, which MAN does not. I am sure they are also Airports with Car Parks attached, and not Car Parks with Airports attached .

Years ago I picked up some Mags from the TAS shop. There was a guy called Peter Hampson. He seemed to be the guy who sorted most things out and I remember reading a comment by him that said "MAN turn nothing away." Where is this guy now? He seems like a good person to sort the diversion and car park issues.