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Old 1st Jan 2016, 16:59
  #161 (permalink)  
 
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I can think of lots of individual routes that might be suitable for VLM, but I'm struggling to pull them together into a coherent profitable strategy which involves VLM having a small number of bases instead of aircraft and staff spread thinly in lots of different places.

Am I perhaps being a little too closed minded in my opinion on VLM ?
I don't think you are. A lack of strategy is the main factor causing them trouble right now and making them lose money. From what I know, they are quite literally running out of money and need to make their new base at FDH a clear success to recover from the situation they're in. So don't expect them to open up any new routes until FDH has proven itself.
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 19:08
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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Well, let's see:

LGG base: gone after a few weeks in 2015
WAT base: down to just 10 weekly flights
ANR base: BHX and GVA gone in a few weeks

The whole network now is more less dependent on routes from HAM and FDH.
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 19:17
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WAT is actually 12 weekly down from 16 weekly meeting demand between Dec-Feb.

Currently an E-145 is operatibg out of WAT for a few days for whatever reason but I expect things would be a lot worse without WAT.
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 19:20
  #164 (permalink)  
 
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WAT is doing well for VLM
WAT didn't have a LTN flight operate during Winter since 2012 so a decrease in the frequency is probably a means for them to gauge the demand during Winter. WAT fares are also the most expensive on the network so WAT could be helping VLM a lot
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 19:51
  #165 (permalink)  
 
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Well, in Jan/Feb it is a single daily flight WATLTN Mon-Sat and a second flight on mondays. That is seven in my book plus three to BHX.

I wish VLM luck, but they have just sold a bunch of their Fokker 50s and leased them back, which must tell us something given the price of 25 year old turboprops.
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 20:54
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Didn't look in detail but fair enough.

If you do the Maths with an aveage of 50% loads during summer (we know it was up to 80) and an average of 700 passenger (based on 50%) per week with fares averging 100-150 return VLM pulled in up to 100,000 per week. Possibly closer to 150,000 peak season.

Easily to see lot of money to be made.
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 20:57
  #167 (permalink)  
 
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VLM themselves have pointed to the FDH operations as an opportunity to hire local/German crews which should reduce their personnel cost. Which is really important as the whole reorganisation they've been implementing in Antwerp has more or less come to a standstill on that issue.

Services have been outsourced, a Dutch daughter company has been liquidated and planes have been sold but the flying crew is still refusing to take a - up to 17 percent - pay cut. Talks have been going nowhere, so I can understand how VLM is happy to point out that any extra staff being needed for FDH will in fact lower the cost per employee.

What I don't understand is why the opening of the WAT base wasn't an opportunity to do the same. Did VLM not consider it, weren't they somehow allowed to or did they in fact hire Irish crew but without that operation making a sufficient impact? Could anyone shed some light on that?
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 21:03
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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WAT based cabin crew started in October.
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 22:04
  #169 (permalink)  
 
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No they did not.
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 22:24
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No they did not.
They hired or at least advertised for Irish crew in August with training to commence in September. Did they not hire in the end?

Hopefully they will survive their current troubles.
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 22:27
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They did indeed advertise for local CC but the LCY based crew have mainly been operating the routes until relatively recently.
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 22:31
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They did indeed advertise for local CC but the LCY based crew have mainly been operating the routes until relatively recently.
So have they or are they going to hire them anytime soon?
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 22:36
  #173 (permalink)  
 
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LCY crew still operate at WAT as far as I know
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Old 1st Jan 2016, 22:42
  #174 (permalink)  
 
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EI, no they never did recruit locally in the end and to my knowledge it is a mixture now of LCY and Antwerp crew that run the routes. As to future local recruitment, I don't know I'm afraid.
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Old 2nd Jan 2016, 22:32
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks for all the replies. It does sound like they haven't really been very thorough or indeed organised in their hiring strategy so far. Which means the pressure is even greater on the FDH operations to be successful, both in terms of revenue as well as costs.
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Old 3rd Jan 2016, 18:34
  #176 (permalink)  
 
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Launching ANR-BHX was probably not only a way to rotate aircraft between ANR and WAT, but also to shuffle crew.
Any news on the aircraft lease to Cityjet in the future?
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Old 4th Jan 2016, 08:07
  #177 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by EI-EIDW
Didn't look in detail but fair enough.

If you do the Maths with an aveage of 50% loads during summer (we know it was up to 80) and an average of 700 passenger (based on 50%) per week with fares averging 100-150 return VLM pulled in up to 100,000 per week. Possibly closer to 150,000 peak season.

Easily to see lot of money to be made.
Generating revenue is not the same as "making money".

Virtually any airline can manage to be profitable in the peak season, but even Ryanair has historically lost money in the off season. The challenge is to have a cost base which will keep the losses to manageable levels. For a relatively small carrier, that's a big challenge.
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Old 4th Jan 2016, 08:24
  #178 (permalink)  
 
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Any news on the aircraft lease to Cityjet in the future?
That deal (for both the Antwerp as well as the Rotterdam route) is set to continue for now.

I can't speak for Rotterdam but at least in Antwerp it seems to me CityJet hasn't got many other options. Their own RJ85's are really too big for the market and while the route is doing quite well, I can't see CityJet bringing in another partner just to serve ANR and RTM/

So I'm guessing the wetlease will continue until either VLM disappears or CityJet decides to stop the Antwerp and/or Rotterdam routes.
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Old 14th Jan 2016, 18:10
  #179 (permalink)  
 
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New CEO for VLM and further management change:
Lara News Show
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Old 15th Jan 2016, 10:18
  #180 (permalink)  
 
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Surreal VLM flight

I flew SOU-ANR four months ago.F50 with leather seats at 32" pitch. Total 7 pax.Belgian chocs with snack. The a/c departed SOU at 1530 but arrived at SOU at 1130am I asked the Steward what the a/c did between between 1130 and 1530.He replied that the a/c remained at SOU until STD 1530. Meanwhile, the Crew jumped on the train-one stop- to go shopping in Southampton!! Chocolate Truffles all round!
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