Which UK Airports will survive the decade ?
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Which UK Airports will survive the decade ?
The closure of Blackpool is hardly a surprise, but it begs an interesting question. The imminent sale of LHR's subsid airports ABZ, GLA and SOU magnifies that question.
Some months ago, a senior Director of an international organisation deep into the ownership of airports internationally (and in the UK) told me their deep analysis indicated that the UK could sustain only 8 pax airports. He reckoned consolidation and closures over the next decade were inevitable.
Even when pressed, he wouldn't tell me which eight they assessed as survivors.
Thoughts on his list ?
Some months ago, a senior Director of an international organisation deep into the ownership of airports internationally (and in the UK) told me their deep analysis indicated that the UK could sustain only 8 pax airports. He reckoned consolidation and closures over the next decade were inevitable.
Even when pressed, he wouldn't tell me which eight they assessed as survivors.
Thoughts on his list ?
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So that's means then, Southampton, Bournmouth, Leeds, Stansted, Luton, Southend, Exeter, Norwich, Inverness, Belfast city, Dundee, Bristol, Cardiff will close, what a load of tosh, god some people the chatter rubbish
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I think that 8 is a pretty good guess if you say 8 airports that are able to make money on the flight (and retail) activities alone... There will be more airports but they will be loss making ventures or make money or real estate etc and/or propped up by the local authorities. 
Worth noting that as the smallest airports close, the airports nearby will tend to find their position improves. Firstly passenger flow will largely migrate from a closed airport to other nearby airports. Secondly the surviving airports will see less competition from other rival airports locally in setting landing fees when talking to airlines - this should increase profitability for airports.
If Durham Tees Valley were to close for example, I imagine Newcastle would see an extra 100k pax per year and might be less willing to offer discount deals on airport fees
If Durham Tees Valley were to close for example, I imagine Newcastle would see an extra 100k pax per year and might be less willing to offer discount deals on airport fees
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I think the ones which will go will be Teeside, Doncaster, Dundee, Humberside, Norwich, Bournemouth. They may not close in total due to Oil field requirement's for example but as a passenger airport I would think borrowed time I am afraid.
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Mr Mac
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Mr Mac
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IMHO: to survive a decade, you'll need to have at least 1+m pax/year and a willing low cost airline that isn't being subsidised to turn up, or a local feeder market of essential routes, like IoM, CI, H&I. Keeping open a large airport for <1m is just too expensive now, unless you have strong non-pax revenues.
Otherwise if your airport is small and within 2hr drive of LGW, BHX, EMA, MAN, SOU, STN, NCL, GLA, EDI, INV, time to talk to your bankers...
Consolidation is inevitable: cheaper fares with bigger planes on popular routes squeezes most else out.
8 sounds a bit light, but 16 with commercial jet traffic in a decade? Probably not.
Otherwise if your airport is small and within 2hr drive of LGW, BHX, EMA, MAN, SOU, STN, NCL, GLA, EDI, INV, time to talk to your bankers...
Consolidation is inevitable: cheaper fares with bigger planes on popular routes squeezes most else out.
8 sounds a bit light, but 16 with commercial jet traffic in a decade? Probably not.
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Have to disagree about Norwich which is usually mentioned (not that im biased
) but i doubt it's going anywhere, gentle increasing in pax numbers after years of decline, thriving matainance hangers, , aircraft recycling, about to build a 5 bay state of the art aircraft painting facility, based private/corporate jet company with own recently built hangar/centre, plus gas flights and even bigger is an aviation business park for the future
Now that is how a small airport diversifies to stay alive!
Others small airports need to do the same if they are to survive in the future, as I agree if your airport is within 2 hours of a larger airport and solely relies on pax as its main income, the future looks bleak unless they act now!
) but i doubt it's going anywhere, gentle increasing in pax numbers after years of decline, thriving matainance hangers, , aircraft recycling, about to build a 5 bay state of the art aircraft painting facility, based private/corporate jet company with own recently built hangar/centre, plus gas flights and even bigger is an aviation business park for the futureNow that is how a small airport diversifies to stay alive!
Others small airports need to do the same if they are to survive in the future, as I agree if your airport is within 2 hours of a larger airport and solely relies on pax as its main income, the future looks bleak unless they act now!
8 airports in the whole of the UK? No chance.
Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, Manchester, Birmingham, London City, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, inverness, Liverpool, Bristol, East Mids, Newcastle, Southampton, Belfast Aldergrove.
There's 17 off the top of my head that are going nowhere. And I've probably missed a few...
Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, Manchester, Birmingham, London City, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, inverness, Liverpool, Bristol, East Mids, Newcastle, Southampton, Belfast Aldergrove.
There's 17 off the top of my head that are going nowhere. And I've probably missed a few...
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A CAA economic cost/benefit study in the 1970's concluded that the only economically viable scenario for airport provision for people living in the South-West region of England (much bigger than you might think, it pretty much includes Dorset, Wiltshire and Gloucestershire as well as Avon, Somerset, Devon & Cornwall) would be to close ALL existing airports in the region so that traffic would be directed to Heathrow and/or Birmingham.
As a statement of economic fact this conclusion was quite correct. The net cost per passenger journey between home and aircraft was minimised in this arrangement, by substituting longer road/rail journeys for local airports.
It never happened, of course, as owners became more entrepreneurial and drove traffic to their airports; Bristol started it, followed by Exeter when BAA took over (although EXT growth ceased for some years after they were kicked out by the Council worthies).
By concentrating aircraft at very few airports the average costs per ATM are reduced by large amounts, of course.
But as access costs grow, with air pollution becoming a much more significant factor than it used to be both for airports and for access routes to them, and an exponential and unforeseen growth in the number of surface journeys for all reasons in the UK the whole equation looks very different. This is especially true in the South-East; perhaps the most important reason for NOT having a 3rd LHR runway is that the air pollution increase from surface traffic as well as aircraft would be added to an already excessive - and illegal - amount.
People who predict the demise of small airports perhaps forget that, as they also perhaps miss the way that hub-based routes are giving way to regional point-to-point routes using small relatively economic aircraft such as the A320 family, and fast, efficient turboprops.
The most likely reason for demise of a UK regional airport in the next 10 years is probably going to be its own bad management and lack of air transport marketing and development skills. There are several where that outcome is grimly predictable. For some owners the urge to realise industrial or housing land values, rather than run an airport at little or no profit, might prove overwhelming.
As a statement of economic fact this conclusion was quite correct. The net cost per passenger journey between home and aircraft was minimised in this arrangement, by substituting longer road/rail journeys for local airports.
It never happened, of course, as owners became more entrepreneurial and drove traffic to their airports; Bristol started it, followed by Exeter when BAA took over (although EXT growth ceased for some years after they were kicked out by the Council worthies).
By concentrating aircraft at very few airports the average costs per ATM are reduced by large amounts, of course.
But as access costs grow, with air pollution becoming a much more significant factor than it used to be both for airports and for access routes to them, and an exponential and unforeseen growth in the number of surface journeys for all reasons in the UK the whole equation looks very different. This is especially true in the South-East; perhaps the most important reason for NOT having a 3rd LHR runway is that the air pollution increase from surface traffic as well as aircraft would be added to an already excessive - and illegal - amount.
People who predict the demise of small airports perhaps forget that, as they also perhaps miss the way that hub-based routes are giving way to regional point-to-point routes using small relatively economic aircraft such as the A320 family, and fast, efficient turboprops.
The most likely reason for demise of a UK regional airport in the next 10 years is probably going to be its own bad management and lack of air transport marketing and development skills. There are several where that outcome is grimly predictable. For some owners the urge to realise industrial or housing land values, rather than run an airport at little or no profit, might prove overwhelming.
Last edited by Capot; 8th Oct 2014 at 16:12.
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Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton, Manchester, Birmingham, London City, Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Bristol, Newcastle, Belfast Aldergrove.
The rest are just too small TBH
The rest are just too small TBH
I wouldn't be surprised to see London City go. Nothing to do with profitability, purely due to how much the land must be worth, and how many office blocks you could get on it.
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The immediate future might see 'duplicate' airports confined to history.
GLA could possibly fall into disuse if surface transport links to EDI are allowed to mature rather than the seemingly current infrastructure spoiling tactics
restricting central Scotland/North East England access. Inverness seems doomed given Aberdeen's logical importance. Dundee is a taxpayer nightmare. Newcastle? Another High Street leisure base whose big boy scheduled services can be accessed by direct rail access to EDI.
GLA could possibly fall into disuse if surface transport links to EDI are allowed to mature rather than the seemingly current infrastructure spoiling tactics
restricting central Scotland/North East England access. Inverness seems doomed given Aberdeen's logical importance. Dundee is a taxpayer nightmare. Newcastle? Another High Street leisure base whose big boy scheduled services can be accessed by direct rail access to EDI.
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GLA could possibly fall into disuse if surface transport links to EDI are allowed to mature
What is it about GLA that irks you so much, just out of interest? Airports/airlines are usually very interesting to follow, but at the end of the day they're just airports. Why do you feel the need to spout your bile over every forum and webpage you can find? Strange thing to be so emotionally insecure about.
Christ knows how you coped in the not to distant past when EDI was in Glasgow's shadow.
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Heathrow Harry,
EGNX will still be there, it's bigger than EGLC, EGGD and EGAA.
So to will EGNS, after all, if you want to leave 'Fraggle Rock', it's either that or a ship.
EGLL is one of the challenges. It used to have 3 terminals and 12 runways. Now it's got 5 shopping malls and 4 runways.
"Houston, we have a problem".
EGNX will still be there, it's bigger than EGLC, EGGD and EGAA.
So to will EGNS, after all, if you want to leave 'Fraggle Rock', it's either that or a ship.
EGLL is one of the challenges. It used to have 3 terminals and 12 runways. Now it's got 5 shopping malls and 4 runways.
"Houston, we have a problem".