SOUTHEND 5
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Well spotted fatmed, also on Thursdays too. These flights free up the SEN based A319 to operate more frequencies on other routes, equating to a 10% increase in capacity.
Last edited by tws123; 17th Jan 2017 at 13:16.
I doubt that the A320 would be payload restricted on SEN-PMI other than at very high surface temperatures. There's a world of difference in not being able to operate to the likes of TFS at 1,600nm distance in the summer months and being to operate to PMI at a distance of 725nm.
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fatmed, with those changes to my original calculation, that brings the weekly total up from 34,268 seats to 34,400 seats (+132). So in total 3,000 EZY seats. In addition there is an extra 500 seats provided by Thomson/Volotea B717 (125Y config.) flights with 2 return flights per week (Tue & Sat), so overall there is 3,500 weekly seats between SEN and PMI.
Last edited by tws123; 18th Jan 2017 at 00:12.
fatmed, with those changes to my original calculation, that bring the weekly total up from 34,268 seats to 34,400 seats (+132). So in total 3,000 EZY seats. In addition there is an extra 500 seats provided by Thomson/Volotea B717 (125Y config.) flights with 2 return flights per week (Tue & Sat), so overall there is 3,500 weekly seats between SEN and PMI.
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SEN-MAN
used to commute from STANSTED/MANCHESTER 2 x week with AIR BERLIN flights were always full nice early depart time great for the businessman so if they get the go ahead could be a winner(if the timings are right)
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I think if this goes ahead selling the connectivity element will be crucial to its success. Probably a bit too early to say where the aircraft will be based and hence which market it is aimed at? On the plus side BA dominate that market so some competition would be welcomed, especially since they charge minimum £51 one way.
Last edited by tws123; 18th Jan 2017 at 20:54.
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SEN-MAN should work quite well with EK/VS codeshares etc
I assume SEN-NQY wouldn't be allowed by BE in this franchise relationship as it would take away punters from NQY-STN ?
cs
I assume SEN-NQY wouldn't be allowed by BE in this franchise relationship as it would take away punters from NQY-STN ?
cs
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I can't see it myself. If true they have made an "application" (I assume this is for slots since you don't need any kind of route licence) then SEN may just be stated to mask the true origin.
If they are indeed looking at SEN-MAN to bring long-haul connectivity, wouldn't DUB be a much better and safer proposition?
If they are indeed looking at SEN-MAN to bring long-haul connectivity, wouldn't DUB be a much better and safer proposition?
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Someone would have to do some calculations to confirm this, but is there actually 16 weekly slots spare at the moment with the two based E195s? Would this require a third airframe?
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Just can't see this working as a long haul connection route and it is a fantasy to consider it could. It will take time to build up passenger numbers but with Crossrail opening next year Heathrow will be a more versatile option for most with trains running every few minutes rather than hanging around for a flight connection at Manchester.
Remember Shenfield to Heathrow will be only a 75 minute journey, which will be quicker than checking in at Southend and waiting for the departure and that is before you add the flight times which will show as an hour. Also can't see a Southend air route competing on fares with a cross London rail route so forget the long haul option.
There might be a demand for a Manchester service for people wanting to go to the North of England on business but I would think there would be more of a demand for an Edinburgh domestic service for no other reason than it is a lot further away.
Remember Shenfield to Heathrow will be only a 75 minute journey, which will be quicker than checking in at Southend and waiting for the departure and that is before you add the flight times which will show as an hour. Also can't see a Southend air route competing on fares with a cross London rail route so forget the long haul option.
There might be a demand for a Manchester service for people wanting to go to the North of England on business but I would think there would be more of a demand for an Edinburgh domestic service for no other reason than it is a lot further away.
tws123
No there are not 16 weekly slots, nor anywhere near that number, unallocated for two SEN-based E195s. I can see the merit of offering worldwide destinations through MAN via codeshares but that's a lot of capacity to sell whether it be for onward connections or serving a North of England market.
No there are not 16 weekly slots, nor anywhere near that number, unallocated for two SEN-based E195s. I can see the merit of offering worldwide destinations through MAN via codeshares but that's a lot of capacity to sell whether it be for onward connections or serving a North of England market.
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Just can't see this working as a long haul connection route and it is a fantasy to consider it could. It will take time to build up passenger numbers but with Crossrail opening next year Heathrow will be a more versatile option for most with trains running every few minutes rather than hanging around for a flight connection at Manchester.
Remember Shenfield to Heathrow will be only a 75 minute journey, which will be quicker than checking in at Southend and waiting for the departure and that is before you add the flight times which will show as an hour. Also can't see a Southend air route competing on fares with a cross London rail route so forget the long haul option.
There might be a demand for a Manchester service for people wanting to go to the North of England on business but I would think there would be more of a demand for an Edinburgh domestic service for no other reason than it is a lot further away.
Remember Shenfield to Heathrow will be only a 75 minute journey, which will be quicker than checking in at Southend and waiting for the departure and that is before you add the flight times which will show as an hour. Also can't see a Southend air route competing on fares with a cross London rail route so forget the long haul option.
There might be a demand for a Manchester service for people wanting to go to the North of England on business but I would think there would be more of a demand for an Edinburgh domestic service for no other reason than it is a lot further away.
You rightly say it will take 75 minutes to travel to LHR, but it will only take 28 minutes to SEN. We know the earliest you can arrive at SEN is 0647, you will probably be able to get to LHR around half an hour before that.
You will not be able to travel directly from Shenfield to LHR until December 2019.
I think I've mentioned before that it's much easier to travel from South Essex to destinations served by the East Coast mainline from Kings X than it is to cities on the West Coast mainline from Euston (If anyone doubts this try it with a case in the morning peak). Crossrail will not serve either station. So there are reasons why a regular route to the North West from SEN might appeal to some.
Now, having waffled on about the case for SEN-MAN, I have to say there has been precious little evidence in the recent history of London Southend of commuter routes working. And without meaning to be rude, how many people want a short break in Manchester! Having said that, I would love to be wrong. A successful domestic route could open up many possibilities
If Easyjet had some ATRs rather than A319s, do people think the Edinburgh route would have survived ?
I don't believe that a MAN-SEN route will have any worthwhile connection flow - if it works it will have to be on a purely point-to-point basis. I'm trying to decide whether MAN or EDI has the greater potential from SEN
I don't believe that a MAN-SEN route will have any worthwhile connection flow - if it works it will have to be on a purely point-to-point basis. I'm trying to decide whether MAN or EDI has the greater potential from SEN
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I doubt EDI would of survived if EZY had ATRs, with less seats the cost per seat would of been significantly higher and with 8 flights a day from STN with Ryanair and easyJet with seats often being less than £10 there would be no demand from SEN.
Also the Air Berlin loads to MAN from STN were not great, I just don't think the route is viable. SEN is difficult to get to for anyone who doesn't live in the catchment area. By the time you get to SEN, pay for parking/or train, the flight time then getting from MAN airport to the city. The cost and time would not make sense.
BA from MAN only works because of the connections at LHR, same as Leeds Bradford. LGW was discontinued don't forget.
Also the Air Berlin loads to MAN from STN were not great, I just don't think the route is viable. SEN is difficult to get to for anyone who doesn't live in the catchment area. By the time you get to SEN, pay for parking/or train, the flight time then getting from MAN airport to the city. The cost and time would not make sense.
BA from MAN only works because of the connections at LHR, same as Leeds Bradford. LGW was discontinued don't forget.
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The EDI route initially had excellent loads on Fridays and Sundays, virtually full. Mondays and Thursdays were OK. Tuesdays and Wednesdays were dire. It was operated in the middle of the day though so wasn't particularly useful for business. There wasn't a Saturday service until later on, by which time the midweek flights had been dropped. The schedule change echoed the BFS timings, and encountered the same problems. The early outbound flight on Mondays and Saturdays had dire loads but the inbounds did OK. On Thursdays, Fridays and Sundays it was the reverse as the flight operated in the evening. The outbound flights were quite full and the inbound which arrived into SEN late not being so popular.
What we don't know is how the route would have performed if originating in EDI with a proper morning and evening schedule removing the issue of first/last trains. Perhaps if EZY ever abandon the STN-EDI route it might be something they could consider.
In principle I think there would be enough local demand for Stobart to operate say a Mon/Thu/Fri/Sun schedule to capture the weekend market. Without knowing the terms of the Flybe deal I'm not sure if that would be permitted beating in mind BE operate LCY-EDI.
What we don't know is how the route would have performed if originating in EDI with a proper morning and evening schedule removing the issue of first/last trains. Perhaps if EZY ever abandon the STN-EDI route it might be something they could consider.
In principle I think there would be enough local demand for Stobart to operate say a Mon/Thu/Fri/Sun schedule to capture the weekend market. Without knowing the terms of the Flybe deal I'm not sure if that would be permitted beating in mind BE operate LCY-EDI.