Potential impact of Scottish independence on flights from Scotland

[Dairyground]

and by retaining Stirling, they know the UK will bail them out to keep Stirling going,

I didn't think the fat 'Eck and his teuchtars were planninhg to move the border that far north to get a majority, although there is a case for going back a thousand years or so and including Edinburgh and all points south in England. (Auld Reekie gets its formal name from the time when it was the capital of King Edwin of Northumbria).

Or perhaps Aluminium shuffler meant sterling, the currency.

[Dairyground]

There will also be a re-alignment of the off-shore border so Scotland may find it hasn't got as much oil as it thinks.

And if Scotland became independent from the rest of the UK, Shetland might think to go back to its Norwegian roots, taking a large chunk of the oil with it.

[LNIDA]

The need for air travel between Scotland and the rest of the UK will remain, possibly increase, also an abolition of APD by the new country would add to this particularly for airlines such as Flybe, Ryanair would likely benefit because APD is a larger proportion of their ticket prices.

Any new country will want to show to the world its new found independent status, so no doubt inter governmental flights would increase across Europe.

idea's of setting up a sovereign wealth fund such as here in Norway is very optimistic, all the papers i have read suggest Scotland will need every last cent in revenue, i guess it won't be pence any more? and then some to cover their proposed tax cuts and spending plans.

The question of borders is interesting, certainly flights between the rest of the UK and Scotland will no longer be domestic flights, in fact Scotland will only have a handful of these, mainly to the Islands & Highlands, are there any flights between the central belt and Aberdeen?

Land borders will also be interesting especially if they hike the price of booze to boost tax revenue and cut chronic alcoholism in the west central belt and this results in booze buying trips south of the new border.

Aviation wise Newcastle could see some flight demand going over the border, but i think its unlikely someone would drive for 3- 4 hours from Manchester to save €15 on a flight?

I think the vote will be very close and it must be interesting to be in at the birth or re birth of a new nation, good luck either way.

[Heathrow Harry]

Scotland would be pretty much in the same position as Singapore - almost all flights would be international

Interesting point about changes in sin taxes - I've heard a few optimistic folk are scouting locations near Carlisle and Berwick for large booze-filled retail outlets on the English side

Anyone who has ever driven in or out of Utah will know what I mean

[Porrohman]

LNIDA: There are currently no scheduled flights between Aberdeen and the Central Belt or between Inverness and the Central Belt. There used to be flights on these routes but they couldn't compete with surface transportation after rail services and roads were improved and APD steadily increased.

There are still flights between the central belt and Wick, Kirkwall, Sumburgh, Stornoway and many smaller islands. The services to the smaller islands currently operate from Glasgow and from Oban.

There are also inter-island services in Orkney and Shetland, in the Hebrides and between Fair Isle and Shetland.

[Trossie]

Not much for a Scottish CAA to regulate then? If the cost of running an 'independent' CAA has to be borne by so little business it could very easily strangle the finances of that business.

And only Loganair and BMIR (now going back to 'Midland' it appears from the call-sign changes, what 'Midland'???!) as 'significant' airlines there as all the 'big boys' have their headquarters safely south of the border.

All very small-minded. Why not have a big-minded attitude to air transport involvement and scrap all this stupid 'independence' farce?

[Porrohman]

It'll be interesting to see what impact tax changes will have on the aviation sector if Scotland votes for independence. The APD reduction has been discussed. The other tax change that might have an impact on aviation is corporation tax. This is what the white paper says on the subject;

We plan to set out a timescale for reducing corporation tax by up to three percentage points below the prevailing UK rate. The intention of pre-announcing the cut is to stimulate economic activity in advance of it taking place and to retain and attract new investment. This will be one way to secure a competitive advantage and help to reverse the loss of corporate headquarters which has been a feature of the Scottish economy over the last 30 years.

Any company that carries out operations in Scotland will potentially benefit from this tax cut but to some extent it will be offset by the additional costs to publish accounts in Scotland. The extent to which this tax cut might impact on the aviation sector is therefore difficult to tell. I don't expect that a small tax cut will be enough to make a significant difference to where UK companies base themselves unless that amount is enough to offset the significant costs that would likely be involved in such relocation. Companies would need to have very large profits before this tax difference is likely to affect where they are headquartered.

There is however a more predictable effect upon companies. Every company that carries out significant business activities in a country needs to register a company in that country, publish accounts in that country and pay taxes in that country.

With Scottish registered offices becoming necessary for many UK companies (e.g. Shell, BP, Diageo, BT, Vodafone etc), that might have a small positive effect on the amount of corporate air travel. Companies such as Standard Life that are currently based in Scotland but carry out operations in the whole of the UK will need to set up registered companies in the former UK and this may also have a small positive effect on corporate travel by air.

Whether or not there might be some advantage for, say, British Airways, EasyJet, Virgin or Flybe to register some aircraft in Scotland I couldn't say for sure but it’s perhaps worth comparing Ryanair and EasyJet. Ryanair registers all of its aircraft in Ireland and EasyJet registers its aircraft in the UK and Switzerland AFAIK. Since Ireland has lower corporate tax rates than the UK you might expect that EasyJet would have reregistered most of its UK fleet in Ireland but it doesn't. I therefore suspect that there would be no specific moves to register commercial aircraft in an independent Scotland rather than in the UK but I will bow to the better judgement of anyone more expert than me in international corporate tax / aircraft registration matters.

I presume that British Airways still owns the Caledonian Airways name. I briefly wondered whether they might resurrect it for marketing reasons. I suspect not, because their fleet utilisation does not allocate aircraft exclusively to Scottish routes and any positive effects from such rebranding on Scottish routes would likely cause brand dilution / confusion when such aircraft operate routes to destinations other than Scotland.

So, in summary, I suspect that the reduction in APD would have the most significant impact on commercial aviation in an independent Scotland. Other effects will likely be quite minor.

[mad_jock]

Porrohman you seem to be under the miss apprehension that if something is put in a white paper it actually happens.

[Porrohman]

Mad_jock: No misapprehension on my part. The white paper is a manifesto. Each measure can only be enacted when approved by parliament. That process can only start after a yes vote. The negotiations following any yes vote would be carried out under the terms of the Edinburgh Agreement. It would be nice to be able to offer more certainty to the electorate than the current manifesto but the UK government refuses to pre negotiate. So we are where we are and people will need to decide which side they trust more as each side develops their case. This is how democracy works. May the best side win.

[Trossie]

Porrohman you seem to be under the miss apprehension [sic] that if something is put in a white paper it actually happens.

... should be amended to ...

Porrohman you seem to be under misapprehension. FULL STOP

That misapprehension must be a requirement to be in the SNP's 'Goebels department'! (Oops, sorry, 'information bureau'!!)

The APD pronouncements have been the only bit of common sense from that lot, but simply because that would be common sense everywhere in the UK. The 'zero' or pretty close to 'zero' levels in the Netherlands, Belgium and Ireland have hardly switched large volumes of air traffic in those directions so I can't see it having any really significant impact. And how will such a pro-airline concept really fit in in the long term with the Scot Nats' avowed 'greenie' image (vide the vandalism of their beautiful countryside with those atrocious wastes of space and money called 'wind farms'!) when airlines are so vilified by the 'greenies'? Once the initial excitement is over, watch them resort to 'type' and try to tax airlines out of existence! (After all, 'jocks' going to the med on holiday will be taking cash out of the local economy and that sort of thing will need to be 'socially engineered' out!)

[Flying.Penguin]

As has already been suggested, the White Paper is not worth the paper it in printed it. It is full of assertions and presumptions, it has failed to answer many of the questions the Scottish people have been asking and it has failed to respond to many concerns than major businesses operating in Scotland have raised.

The SNP seem to be under the impression that in the unlikely event of a yes vote they will be able to pick and choose what parts of Britain they keep, such as the currency. The fact the SNP want University Education to remain free in Scotland far all with the exception of English students proves Alex Salmond’s hate-driven agenda.

Alex Salmond referring to everyone who disagrees with him as a “scaremonger” and a “bully” is a global embarrassing reflection on Scotland. The world just needs to look over to Ukraine/Russia to see what political bullying is yet Alex Salmond seems to imply Scotland is in the same boat. Laughable.

Remember it was this man who released the Lockerby bomber, does Scotland really want to be led into independence by this loose-cannon?! With the latest opinion poll’s showing 54% say no, I just hope all the no voters go out and vote on the day.

[Porrohman]

It seems we are agreed that, in relation to aviation, there might be some benefit from the APD reduction and that the rest of the issues make little or no difference to aviation.

Can we also agree that the rest of the issues are for a different forum? Having said three times now that I'm going to stick to aviation matters, I'm not going to get drawn back into a slagging match about non-aviation matters.

[mad_jock]

Do you have more than one forum you have to monitor and produce spin?

How do they choose who gets to do which online forum ?

Well actually quite a bit might change as slots into major hubs at peak times will be pulled onto more profitable routes. So people will end up having to bus it round the m25 to get to lhr or lgw. And they will struggle doing a one day trip in either direction.

The lhr shuttles will be the first to go those slots are worth millions.

[edi_local]

Originally Posted by Flying.Penguin

Remember it was this man who released the Lockerby bomber, does Scotland really want to be led into independence by this loose-cannon?! With the latest opinion poll’s showing 54% say no, I just hope all the no voters go out and vote on the day.

Personally, yes. I would rather have a Government which is willing, able and proven to have the balls to stand up to and go against the wishes of the White House rather than one which blindly nods in agreement with whoever is running the show over the Pond. Whether or not you agree with the Lockerbie decision, it has to be said that the Scottish Government made the decision based on their own judgement and didn't let the emotional or political will of any other country come in to consideration. That alone is admirable and refreshing in UK politics.

I cant see there being any reduction in LON-EDI flights at all. Unless BA/VS want to just willingly let huge numbers of passengers choose to go through the likes of FRA, EWR, PHL, ORD, DOH, IST, DUB, AMS, CDG instead of LHR, which we all know won't happen. If anything with APD being dropped or scrapped (which it obviously would as the Scottish Government will want to attract people and competed against the rUK) we will see more people choosing to go through London.

[Facelookbovvered]

Scotland will never have the range or frequency of destination that LHR has, of course if Scotland did abolish APD post a yes vote or following more devolved powers after a no vote, then you could fly pretty much anywhere in the world from Scotland without paying APD routing through London Heathrow, transit passengers from other countries do not pay APD.

So i would expect the volume on the LHR shuttles to increase for both BA & VS, but i don't really see many new destinations ex Scotland direct.

Will Scotland keep +44 for international telephone calls or need a new country code? a £ or 2 in reprinting

[Trossie]

Personally, yes. I would rather have a Government which is willing, able and proven to have the balls to stand up to and go against the wishes of the White House rather than one which blindly nods in agreement with whoever is running the show over the Pond. Whether or not you agree with the Lockerbie decision, it has to be said that the Scottish Government made the decision based on their own judgement and didn't let the emotional or political will of any other country come in to consideration. That alone is admirable and refreshing in UK politics.

Releasing that mass-murderer (who, it should carefully be noted, was tried, convicted and sentenced in a Scottish court) was the the most vile thing that the 'Scottish government' (that sits in what Billy Connolly has called "that wee parliamentie thingie") has done. ('edi local', if the age on your profile is correct then you wouldn't yet have been able to read the news when all those people were murdered.) If "... stand up to and go against the wishes of the White House..." is justification in your eyes for supporting a major aviation terrorist, then you really, really need to wake up and get to understand the folly of your distorted views of the world. UK politics does not have a good record for dealing with aviation terrorists (going right back to Leila Khaled, now that is way before your time, isn't it 'edi local'?) right up to this appalling act of stupidity and misjudgement (or is it collusion?) by the 'Scottish government'.

It appears from several of the posts that the big winners out of APD changes north of the border will be BA and VS who will be able to cash in a bit more from their connections through LHR and LGW, both of course non-Scottish based businesses. With the way that so many businesses are starting to make their opinions heard, it wouldn't surprise me at all to find that the likes of Loganair and BMIR are making contingency plans for a transfer of HQ south of the border. Of course, that other regional airline with a large presence in Scotland, Eastern Airways, has always had their HQ south of the border so they can clearly show the advantages. That would leave the mighty Scotland with a bit of GA and that's about it in the fixed wing world. 'Loose-wing' wise, Bristows are south of the border (Redhill) as are Bond (Gloucester) so there could also be not a lot left. No matter, they can transfer all those skills wasted on aviation to building more 'wind-farm' follies to litter their once beautiful countryside.

[Fairdealfrank]

LNIDA: There are currently no scheduled flights between Aberdeen and the Central Belt or between Inverness and the Central Belt. There used to be flights on these routes but they couldn't compete with surface transportation after rail services and roads were improved and APD steadily increased.

Am surprised by this. Although improved, it's still not a quick journey from Edinburgh and Glasgow to Aberdeen and/or Inverness by road or rail. When were these ended?

So i would expect the volume on the LHR shuttles to increase for both BA & VS, but i don't really see many new destinations ex Scotland direct.

Indeed, there won't be. If we look at Norway, the country that "wee Eck" likes to compare to a Scotland that has separated from the UK, most lonhaul pax to/from Norway have to transit through hubs such as LHR, CPH, AMS and/or FRA (depending on the carrier). It is the same for all small European countries (except the Netherlands if that is considered to be a "small" country).

Will Scotland keep +44 for international telephone calls or need a new country code? a £ or 2 in reprinting

Certainly would make sense, Canada, the USA, and most of the west Indies share a "country" code (+1), but don't hold your breath.

It appears from several of the posts that the big winners out of APD changes north of the border will be BA and VS who will be able to cash in a bit more from their connections through LHR and LGW, both of course non-Scottish based businesses.

It would be marginal. These routes would remain for simple commercial reasons.




Judging by some of the posts on this thread, the impression given is that Scotland is becoming seriously divided and polarised over the issue of separation or better together. Irrespective of the outcome on 18 September, this is will be damaging dangerous for the future, or, to put it in politician-speak "going forward".

[LNIDA]

What will Scotland's airforce look like in the event of a YES vote, how many transport aircraft, fighters, rotary ?

Having watched the first minter on TV a couple of days ago he reminds me of someone who can taste victory but smell the fear of failure, i think it will be close.

[Fairdealfrank]

What will Scotland's airforce look like in the event of a YES vote, how many transport aircraft, fighters, rotary ?

..... and the nukes? some sort of Ukraine-style arrangement?

[GustyOrange]

I really don't see what all of the fuss is about.

The polls clearly indicate that most of us in Northern Britain will do the sensible thing and remain part of the Union that has served all of us so well over the centuries.

G