Another 2 billion could be down the Airbus drain
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Would be intersting, if not revealing, to know what value these specialists predict for the other surviving 4-engined dinosaur, and what premium insurances ask for to insure their value. After all BA cancelled some orders and QF is quietly looking to get rid of some.
A340 history
To be fair on the 340, it was designed in the late eighties when 90/120 min ETOPS was in force, and the twins did not yet rule. AB well realized the superior economics of the twin, but also was aware of the need for a long range aircraft on routes beyond the maximum range of twins (at that time) and on some routes where even 180 min ETOPS requires a long diversion. Rather smartly they designed an airframe that could be fitted with 2 or 4 engines, the first became the 330, the latter the 340, then leaned back to see how the 2 vs. 4 battle ends. Twins clearly won, and now the 330 is their principal cash cow - they can easily afford some losses on late delivery 340s, as the two programmes are really one, and with development costs I presume long since recovered, they are making very comfortable margins on currently sold airframes. Parts and assembly are typically ~50% of the cost of a new aircraft, the rest is allocated R&D.
Originally Posted by TURIN
Is there a market for a non-stop, premium service?
The problem with ULH non-stops from an airline perspective is that it usually also competes with the one-stop service offered by the same airline. If you strip the premium traffic (or a large part of it) from the one-stop services (as naturally premium traffic will prefer the non stop service, all things being equal), the one-stop service will cease to make money. If on the other hand the non-stop service is sold at a significant premium, demand will drop considerably. In reality the non-stop service only offers a 1.5-2h advantage, which in comparison to the total trip time is not very much, and needs to be weighed against the required premium. There are very few ULH city-pair markets where there is sufficient demand for such a non-stop service. If SQ could not make SIN-EWR work (I have no insight into the route exonomics, but I'm sure it was axed for the above reasons), what would ?
The 340-600 is supposedly 8-10% cheaper on a cost/ASK basis, the other variants I presume would be more expensive due to the lower number of seats. However there are several factors that can fudge these figures, like actual seat config, stage length, actual airport charges, etc. Eg. if a 744 is fully owned and already fully depreciated, then it may make sense to absorb the higher direct operating cost in exchange for zero ownership cost rather than replacing it with something that may be marginally more economical to operate, but will require cash out to own. Aircraft replacement decisions are seldom as easy and straight forward as what is presented in the glossy A or B sales brochures.
Would be intersting, if not revealing, to know what value these specialists predict for the other surviving 4-engined dinosaur, and what premium insurances ask for to insure their value. After all BA cancelled some orders and QF is quietly looking to get rid of some.
Of course, you are probably alluding to the A380. BA have not cancelled any orders, but they have deferred deliveries. QF is a basket case, and is presently looking at shedding 5000 jobs. If they can't make the A380 work across the Pacific, I'd suggest that speaks more of QF's ability to run a business than the aircraft.
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Sorry, forgot the Binosaurus, to me it was basically never alive.
The Aerosaurus is and if QF can't make it profitable it's probably due to the lack of subsidy from the European taxpayer .....
But you did not answer my question though.
The Aerosaurus is and if QF can't make it profitable it's probably due to the lack of subsidy from the European taxpayer .....
But you did not answer my question though.
You may think the A380 is done and dusted, real airlines may have other plans though. I've no idea what the insurance premiums or resale guarantees are like, and unless someone's got an inside line to the CFO of an airline, and is willing to spill the beans*, I am unlikely ever to.
*Also known as signing your own termination
That QF aren't profitable is hardly the fault of, what, 8? aircraft. QF is a mismanaged relic of the past, thinking it still has god-given right to lay claim not only to the domestic Australian market, but also to at least 50% of the kangaroo route. Their current episode with Jetstar Hong Kong is an excellent case in point - what well managed airline would setup a division clearly ruled out of Sydney, thinking they could fool the Chinese into thinking it was under HK control, and then set about ordering loads of aircraft?
Alan Joyce is one of the biggest failures in the modern airline world, and would have been so regardless of which aircraft he did, or didn't, order.
*Also known as signing your own termination
That QF aren't profitable is hardly the fault of, what, 8? aircraft. QF is a mismanaged relic of the past, thinking it still has god-given right to lay claim not only to the domestic Australian market, but also to at least 50% of the kangaroo route. Their current episode with Jetstar Hong Kong is an excellent case in point - what well managed airline would setup a division clearly ruled out of Sydney, thinking they could fool the Chinese into thinking it was under HK control, and then set about ordering loads of aircraft?
Alan Joyce is one of the biggest failures in the modern airline world, and would have been so regardless of which aircraft he did, or didn't, order.
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There is a near immediate customer for around 40 twin aisle aircraft: Ryanair plans long-haul services - Telegraph
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The A340 had already one problem from the beginning, they couldn't be conversed to a F unlike the 744. With the poor freighter market the 744 also lost it's value and many are in the desert or scrapped already. But with them, also the MD11's are stored/scrapped everywhere. F or not.
The 600 has a huge capacity for cargo, up to 30T plus 310 pax (depending on config), the trouble is the cargo market is fickle and soft at present. When oil was under $50 a barrel it was a good all round aircraft.
But with ETOPs at 180 and due to increase, 2 engines will always be king, even if the fuel price comes down (which is forecast).
But with ETOPs at 180 and due to increase, 2 engines will always be king, even if the fuel price comes down (which is forecast).
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Out of curiosity - are there actually any routes left that require a quad? IOW, no ETOPS twin possible? The only ones I can think of would perhaps be South Africa - Oz and Oz/NZ - Argentina.
According to Boeing, the 777-200LR can fly between any city pair in the world.
With 330 minute ETOPs, I understand there are a few south polar routes where the routing of a twin might not be optimal, the capability is there.
With 330 minute ETOPs, I understand there are a few south polar routes where the routing of a twin might not be optimal, the capability is there.
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Let me ask a layman like question.
What happens to the old retired airframes? I see a lot of reference made to them being placed in a desert somewhere. Would it not make more sense to cut them up, and melt the raw materials? Is it a cost thing?
If all the workds 747's were to be scrapped, would that not take up a lot of space?
Thanks
What happens to the old retired airframes? I see a lot of reference made to them being placed in a desert somewhere. Would it not make more sense to cut them up, and melt the raw materials? Is it a cost thing?
If all the workds 747's were to be scrapped, would that not take up a lot of space?
Thanks
What happens to the old retired airframes? I see a lot of reference made to them being placed in a desert somewhere. Would it not make more sense to cut them up, and melt the raw materials? Is it a cost thing?
There are several dozen companies around the world who specialise in dismantling aircraft that have reached the end of their lives.
Here's an example: Aircraft salvage, recovery and disposal services - Air Salvage International
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Does anyone understand the economics of why LH favored/favors four holers?
Their A340s outnumber their A333 almost 3:1. In the first half of the 2000s, they kept adding A343s (including ex-Sabena aircraft), in the second half, they added plenty of new A346s (not to mention the B744, B748I and A380).
I understand the A346 taking up a size/range niche between the A333 and the B744 and not wanting to go B777 in order not to add another type.
But why did they keep adding A343 for a long time which have no size advantage over the A333 and probably had no range / ETOPS advantage at the time either? Many routes were and are being served by A343s that can be easily served by A333s, and type commonality would not have been a consideration.
Their A340s outnumber their A333 almost 3:1. In the first half of the 2000s, they kept adding A343s (including ex-Sabena aircraft), in the second half, they added plenty of new A346s (not to mention the B744, B748I and A380).
I understand the A346 taking up a size/range niche between the A333 and the B744 and not wanting to go B777 in order not to add another type.
But why did they keep adding A343 for a long time which have no size advantage over the A333 and probably had no range / ETOPS advantage at the time either? Many routes were and are being served by A343s that can be easily served by A333s, and type commonality would not have been a consideration.
BRE
There are two reasons why LH preferred the A340 to the A330. The first, and biggest, is that the A330 Airbus will sell you today is far removed from the aircraft available around the year 2000. Considerable performance improvements, paired with ever increasing MTOW figures, has enabled the A330 of today to perform routes the A330 of 2000 vintage couldn't. Secondly, the senior air heads at Lufty has had a historic dislike of crossing oceans with anything less than 3 engines. That was one of the reasons they nixed the 777 and went for the A340 instead. But even the wrinkly old LH skippers eventually found that further resistance would be futile, and now LH have joined the group that are crossing oceans on 2 donks.
There are two reasons why LH preferred the A340 to the A330. The first, and biggest, is that the A330 Airbus will sell you today is far removed from the aircraft available around the year 2000. Considerable performance improvements, paired with ever increasing MTOW figures, has enabled the A330 of today to perform routes the A330 of 2000 vintage couldn't. Secondly, the senior air heads at Lufty has had a historic dislike of crossing oceans with anything less than 3 engines. That was one of the reasons they nixed the 777 and went for the A340 instead. But even the wrinkly old LH skippers eventually found that further resistance would be futile, and now LH have joined the group that are crossing oceans on 2 donks.