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Old 3rd Apr 2014, 20:51
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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Is it right to assume that every LR pax transferring onto longhaul, would have been lost to BA, in the event of no LR operation?
No, they could go via a mainland European hub instead.
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Old 4th Apr 2014, 00:24
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INV is neither huge nor lucrative and no one operates multi leg domestic segments with jets nowadays. VS could have continued allowing BA to carry their long haul feed but that would expose their passengers to T5 and the competition's offering.
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Old 4th Apr 2014, 09:36
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With the departure of Flybe from the Inverness - London route (...and by extension British Airways too, as a code share operated on the route), there is now now a huge opportunity for a carrier to pick up lucrative Inverness originating long haul traffic.
Little Red could use one of their MAN based aircraft to start the day at INV, and fly INV-LHR (via MAN) to capitalise on this gap in the market that has opened up. The extra traffic could also support the MAN-LHR part of the rotation.
There are plenty of well heeled locals in the north of Scotland, and even more Americans that want to visit, that now have to travel from ABZ/GLA or EDI. A feeder from here onto VS trans-atlantic services ex LHR should do very well!
Sorry, with a population density of less than 5 people per hectare, the Inverness route is never going to be "Lucrative".
Now if SRB wants to run a feeder service to take his mates out to the Caribbean, he may choose to do that! But he ain't gonna make money!

See the link for a population map.
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Old 9th Apr 2014, 14:29
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I don't think that's a safe assumption to make!
I can't think it would be any different for the local traffic. It would therefore then depend on the pro-ration of the long-haul traffic but even with the most optimistic allocation the route would be a long way from making money at 30-40pc load factor!
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Old 9th Apr 2014, 20:29
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Virgin decided to chop one of their 13 Little Red slots. One of the LHR-MAN slots has now been shipped to Delta. Used to be VS3047 daily LHR-MAN.

Perhaps indicative of what they intend to do with all the slots at the end of the 2 year agreement
Can't use the remedy slots for anywhere except Moscow Cairo or Riyadh or Nice besides the Scottish routes under the current terms for three years and after that an alternative EU destination.

It is however certain Virgin will try to have these terms amended towards the end of the period.

Manchester slots are not covered by the remedy slot regulations however use of all existing VS slots is necessary to comply with the terms of remedy slot allocations.
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Old 10th Apr 2014, 19:59
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Willie Walsh takes aim at Virgin Little Red - Business Traveller
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Old 11th Apr 2014, 07:58
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Re-arranging the words of a certain Lady of Leisure, "He would say that, wouldn't he"?
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Old 11th Apr 2014, 08:47
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Originally Posted by rutankrd
Manchester slots are not covered by the remedy slot regulations however use of all existing VS slots is necessary to comply with the terms of remedy slot allocations.
I don't follow. Did you mean all other VS slots? We're talking about a slot pair, right?
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Old 11th Apr 2014, 08:54
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rutankrd is referring purely to the slots acquired from BA which have restrictions of use on them as already detailed.

Walsh will have access to CAA shared data statistics so will know exactly what the actual load factors are on Little Reds services. It wouldn't take a genius to work out what sort of money they were losing, especially knowing the cost of operation and that Aer Lingus are operating on a cost-plus basis and making money out of it.
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Old 11th Apr 2014, 09:28
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I think that Rutankard's point is that VS had to prove that it was already using all of its existing slots before it could be awarded the remedy slots. Otherwise there would be no logic in awarding the remedy slots.
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Old 11th Apr 2014, 09:48
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rutankrd is referring purely to the slots acquired from BA which have restrictions of use on them as already detailed.
Priory to Northern Summer 2013 VS had a number of its slots at LHR leased out to other carriers and had no domestic services of their own.

To satisfy the terms of the tendering process for the remedy slots it required that they set up a domestic operation and that those leased slots return and be used by the business -hence the Manchester services were set up and publicly launched before hand.

The presumption is whilst they have use of the remedy slots provided by BA they can not simultaneously lease out their own slots for profit.

However they have apparently be able to permanently dispose of a slot pair via sale to Delta -a clear partner legally within the letter however less so in the spirit of the contract !

The regulators might however have something say if VS dispose of further slots similarly and certainly so if they terminate the Manchester service completely during the three year period.

Nothing in this business is ever easy or transparent !
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Old 30th Apr 2014, 06:36
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Has anyone else noticed a step up in loads on the EDI - LHR route? I've been flying with them frequently since launch and in the last month most of the flights (I always take the first one down, last one back) have been full, or almost full. Is it because of the start of the Delta JV? I notice they now offer a bus to terminal 4 as well as terminal 3 now.
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Old 30th Apr 2014, 16:41
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Last few flights on the ABZ-LHR run have come a long way since my first with 20 pax although they're still not brilliant.

First flight down (3026) had maybe 90 pax each time although I did note very few connecting pax the second time. Last flights up have been not bad with them being totally full the first time on a Sunday and about 120 the second time on the Monday. (3025)
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