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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 13:10
  #1121 (permalink)  
 
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I've heard WW do Q&As with investors for years and seen him give talks. He always seems very well briefed and has never been caught out by a question. I don't believe for a moment he wasn't aware of this.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 13:13
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If BA won't provide the domestic connectivity who will ?
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 14:16
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I am surprised that interested parties should believe this nonsense in regard to the provision of new domestic flights. Destinations served will be those that provide maximum profits, new entrants to LHR and routes in general supported by larger capacity aircraft.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 14:28
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Quote from DaveReidUK:
"But it's been bl**ding obvious to everyone else since the late 1940s that any additional runway(s) at Heathrow would be north of the A4."

Agreed, Dave, but IIRC the late 20th-century ( ... ) proposal was for a medium-length runway which would not have needed to extend across the M25? In which case, it seemed to me that its western threshold would have been between Waterside and the M4.

Now that - for so we are told - the runway is to cross over the M25, it will need to avoid the enormous area of the M4/M25 interchange. This in turn means, presumably, that it will have to be situated further south. That, and an associated parallel-taxiway on its south side, would appear to encroach on Waterside.

Not that this project - or any other - is likely to be given the go-ahead any time soon...
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 16:05
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WW also said he wasn't interested in these "artificial" routes when referring to the domestic market also citing the massive losses run up by Virgin.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 18:15
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Which he has the full figures for, having bought the airline that flew said routes.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 19:24
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Little Red only duplicated BA's existing routes anyway. I'd have thought that the reason for their "massive losses" could well be to do with: 1) They were immediately setting themselves up in competition with a big, well known carrier; and 2) Nothing like the same comprehensive route network at the London end to connect into. Neither of these would be an issue with any new domestics BA (or a codeshare partner) might try.
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Old 23rd Nov 2016, 23:46
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It's behind the Times' paywall.

But it basically contains the same as the above-linked Guardian article, quoting WW's speech to the AOA where he calls Heathrow "fat, dumb and happy" and says there is zero chance of BA adding any new domestic routes from an expanded Heathrow.

That may, of course, just turn out to be more bluster (see above) from WW, who appears to have been studying the MO'L Manual of PR.
BA won't be adding any routes (domestic or otherwise) that are not "thick" enough for at least the A319, it does not have any smaller aircraft. That much is obvious.



Quote:
where he calls Heathrow "fat, dumb and happy" and says there is zero chance of BA adding any new domestic routes from an expanded Heathrow.
He cites LHR-NQY ( awaits cornishsimon to rebut the CEO of IAG )
Quote:
But Walsh stated that his airlines would not operate routes to airports such as Newquay in Cornwall, “even if [Heathrow chief executive] John Holland-Kaye got down and begged me”.
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2...ll-raze-his-hq
No rebuttal necessary, thinner routes would be operated by carriers with suitably sized aircraft. LHR-NQY looks like a potential BE route.

If BA won't provide the domestic connectivity who will ?
U2 on the thicker routes (like BA, it also doesn't have small enough aircraft for the thinner routes); BE, BD regional, T3, LM, etc., on the thinner routes? Who knows?
Would also expect widespread code-sharing for longhaul connectivity.


Little Red only duplicated BA's existing routes anyway. I'd have thought that the reason for their "massive losses" could well be to do with: 1) They were immediately setting themselves up in competition with a big, well known carrier; and 2) Nothing like the same comprehensive route network at the London end to connect into. Neither of these would be an issue with any new domestics BA (or a codeshare partner) might try.
True, but VS set itself up for failure by calling itself "Little Red", completely pointless, meaningless nonsense!

Last edited by Fairdealfrank; 24th Nov 2016 at 00:09.
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Old 24th Nov 2016, 11:55
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Given Heathrows cost base, just how does anyone intend to make a J31 into Heathrow profitable?

With the exception of Liverpool, does any city with any sort of catchment have the passenger mix to make Heathrow profitable? IOM, JER perhaps.

Shetlands, Dundee, Carlisle, Derry.... not a (profitable) hope. The days of Sheds flying from Heathrow to Birmingham aren't coming back.
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Old 24th Nov 2016, 12:39
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Would it not be feasible for BA to run the thinner routes domestically on the Embraers?
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Old 24th Nov 2016, 12:43
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Would it not be feasible for BA to run the thinner routes domestically on the Embraers?
There's currently Pilot scope clauses that prevent that happening from LHR.
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Old 24th Nov 2016, 13:12
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It's down to balance. Without the domestic and short haul feed, would all their long haul remain viable? I'm sure I've read things from them in the past about the proportion of domestic passengers that go on to connect into another of their flights.


True, sending an A319 to Newquay may not stack up, but a codeshare on a Q400 may make sense for both parties concerned.
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Old 24th Nov 2016, 13:35
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Originally Posted by Copenhagen
Given Heathrows cost base, just how does anyone intend to make a J31 into Heathrow profitable?

With the exception of Liverpool, does any city with any sort of catchment have the passenger mix to make Heathrow profitable? IOM, JER perhaps.

Shetlands, Dundee, Carlisle, Derry.... not a (profitable) hope. The days of Sheds flying from Heathrow to Birmingham aren't coming back.
Jersey could certainly justify a LHR route, either as an addition to LGW for BAW or as a replacement for it (with EZY remaining at LGW). As a sole BAW London destination Jersey to Heathrow could sustain 6 daily A319s; but I would expect the LGW frequency to reduce commensurately if the airline was to offer just 2/3 daily services to LHR. However, EZY have stated that they would be prepared to operate LHR to Jersey, so maybe we'll get a mix of LHR & LGW services from both airlines when the 3rd. R/W opens. In this event, expect up to 10 daily London-Jersey flights split between LHR & LGW. But, don't hold your breath !
The same goes for Guernsey (although BAW & EZY don't operate there). I could envisage up to 4 flights a day to LHR , with an appropriate reduction in LGW services. Although, I don't think BAW or EZY would have much interest in Guernsey without a R/W extension.
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Old 24th Nov 2016, 21:01
  #1134 (permalink)  
 
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BA won't be adding any routes (domestic or otherwise) that are not "thick" enough for at least the A319, it does not have any smaller aircraft. That much is obvious.
BA runs the domestic London City to Isle of Man with a chartered Saab 2000 in full BA livery. All is possible where it is desired.


Given Heathrows cost base, just how does anyone intend to make a J31 into Heathrow profitable?
Heathrow's charging is a regulated pricing, and the government can set this, provided it is not found unreasonable, as they wish, so the political desire for a proportion of the new runway capacity to be used for regional services can be met in this manner. It has not been hitherto possible because the EU rules that there can't be any pricing or rules for domestic-only operations, any such rules had to be for Europe-wide services. This obviously no longer applies.

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Old 24th Nov 2016, 22:46
  #1135 (permalink)  
 
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I suspect that Heathrow's new-found enthusiasm for expanding regional connectivity would evaporate pretty quickly if the regulators insisted that slots that could otherwise be used for longhaul widebodies were instead reserved for regionals with their Dash 8s and ERJs.
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 07:25
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By the time Rwy3 is built I suspect half these aircraft types will have been retired !! So discussion a bit academic lol
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 08:32
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You appear to have missed the point.

Feel free to substitute whichever 50-80 seat regional aircraft you predict will be in service by then.
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 12:09
  #1138 (permalink)  
 
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Quote:
Would it not be feasible for BA to run the thinner routes domestically on the Embraers?
There's currently Pilot scope clauses that prevent that happening from LHR.
But not from a regional 'base' perhaps? A base with a couple of under used runways and massive Chinese investment?
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 12:42
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Reminds me of the old joke - when you ask an Irishman how to get somewhere (Heathrow to Isle of Man?), he'll say "If I were you, I wouldn't start from here".
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Old 25th Nov 2016, 20:51
  #1140 (permalink)  
 
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I suspect that Heathrow's new-found enthusiasm for expanding regional connectivity would evaporate pretty quickly if the regulators insisted that slots that could otherwise be used for longhaul widebodies were instead reserved for regionals with their Dash 8s and ERJs.
With a third rwy, using slots for "this" OR "that" will no longer be an issue, sufficient slots will be available for "this" AND "that", this is the point. Both will be needed, longhaul routes need shorthaul feed.

Also, there will be no foreign interference from Brussels, the government will be free to decide whether (or not) some slots for thin domestic routes would be ringfenced, which routes would have have PSO status, levels of caps on airport charges, etc.etc..
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