BIRMINGHAM - 6

[OltonPete]

September Route Anlaysis

Credit: CAA for Monthly Passenger Figures
Average pax per flight: Libhomeradar, a BHX Blo* and my own records
Load Factor: Estimated based on airline websites and various seat-maps

Getting to be an onerous task with schedule and IT pax mixed together, late aircraft substitutions etc. Therefore any flybe route is often based on what should have operated but many 175 flights were replaced by Q400's during the last three months.

Route.................2015.......2014.....Avg Pax.......Load Factor
BRUSSELS..........15401.......12787.......78................ 70%
TORONTO............2075.........1946.....208................ 86%
DUBROVNIK..........5244........ 4603......?.. ....IT pax included
SPLIT......................0.........3118
LARNACA.............7880........ 8021.....188.................91%
PAPHOS..............4629.........2984.....165............... ..85%
COPENHAGEN......10543........ 9988.....101.................75%
HURGHADA................0........ 1371
SHARM................6128........ 4075.....175.................82%
BORDEAUX............2394........2396......70................ .80%
LYON...................4351........3839......73............. ....84%
NICE...................4667........ 5718......146................82%
PARIS (CDG).......33726.......25108......103................83%
PERPIGNAN...........1252.............0......157............. ..83%
TOULOUSE...............0......... 3360
BERLIN (TXL)........4298.............0........72...............81%
COLOGNE..................0........3097
DUSSELDORF.......19707......19310........57...............65 %
FRANKFURT.........29294......29536.......127...............7 8% - 5 cancellations
HAMBURG.............2770........2677........53.............. .64%
HANOVER.............3215........ 5883........54...............69% 50% fewer flights
MUNICH..............17242......15877.......105.............. .79%
STUTTGART..........7182........6628........69............... 78%
GIBRALTAR...........4011........ 3542.......154...............89%
ATHENS...............1933........1590.......138............. ..82% ended 23/09
HERAKLION...........3123........3372.......174.............. .88%
PREVEZA..............1512............0........189........... ....88%
BUDAPEST............1488............0........149............ ...83% commenced 16/9
KEFLAVIK.............1947.........305........137............ ...72%
AMRITSAR............5584............0
DELHI..................4972.......6327........176........... ....69%
CORK..................6655.......5942..........59........... ....83%
DUBLIN..............65060......58170........136............. ..83%
KNOCK.....................0........2614
SHANNON............3016........3976.........58.............. ..87%
WATERFORD..........761........1887.........22............... .45%
FLORENCE................0........3646
MILAN (MXP)......10479........8656.........76................86%
ROME (FCO).........7663.......9951........153................88%
TRIESTE...................0.......2235
VENICE................6373.......5541........152............ ...82%
KAUNAS...............2969.......2593........165............. ..87%
MALTA................3236.......5702...........?............ .IT PAX included
AMSTERDAM....... 51616.....48605.........111..............87%
ISLAMABAD..........4692.......6228.........335.............. 85%
BYDGOSZCZ.........3175.......4605...........?............... .not all pax returned?
GDANSK...............3118.......3074.........173............ ..92%
KATOWICE...........2833.......3252.........177.............. 94%
KRAKOW..............3216.......2844.........179............. .95%
WARSAW.............1541............0.........154............ ..86% commenced 15/9
FARO................21819......20569.........182............ ..90%
OPORTO..................0........2475
FUNCHAL............2913........3439.........182............. .85%
BRATISLAVA....... 4573........3155.........176..............93%
ALICANTE.........27181.......32473.........172............. 86%
ALMERIA.................0........4559
BARCELONA......23885.......13286.........166..............90 %
IBIZA................7692.......12560.........151........... ...77%
MADRID.............4246.............0.........163........... ...86%
MAHON.............5904.........5627.........174............. .85%
MALAGA...........32919.......25576.........191............. 95%
MURCIA.............6128.........6436.........180............ . 95%
PALMA.............20519.......25097.........189............. 89%
ARRECIFE.........14574.......13991........... ?.......IT Pax included
Fuerteventura...10045........8001............?.......IT Pax included
LAS PALMAS......8770.........7620............?...... IT Pax included
Tenerife (TFS)..20501.......19886............?...... IT Pax included
GOTEBORG.............0.........1356
ZURICH.............8065........9435............79........... .. 80%
BODRUM............3904........4550..........150............. 74%
DALAMAN..........8980........9896..........150.............. 80%
ISTANBUL........13115.......11066..........131............. 85%
ASHKHABAD .......3016........4905............89.............47% has improved
DUBAI.............58808.......46033..........327............ . 80%
NEW YOR JFK.....6966.............0..........116............. 66%
NEWARK............8374........9033..........155............. 92%

Domestic
ABERDEEN.........10828......11864........... 60.............77%
BELFAST CITY...21248......23596............60.............75%
BELFAST (BFS)..15993......13052...........140............ 90%
DERRY....................0........4132
EDINBURGH.......24157......25787.............65............8 3%
GLASGOW.........20152......20862.............57............7 2%
GUERNSEY ....... .1490.......1902...........JER & GCI figures suspect
INVERNESS.........4102.......4239.............68............ .88%
ISLE OF MAN.......3574.......3652.............53.............67%
JERSEY..............3344........6331............???
NEWCASTLE..........777........783...............9........... ..30%
NEWQUAY...........3070.......3253.............51............ .66%

Pete

[nwoody2001]

Thanks for this OltonPete, some great looking loads there, and great to see our newer routes improving!!!


We have the October figures due out tomorrow so will be interesting to see how the routes above establish!

[VickersVicount]

Ooft why is JFK so low?

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by VickersVicount

Ooft why is JFK so low?

Especially since the EWR figure is so high. I would guess that it's down to the fact that AA have been on the route for six months, and UA are well established in the market.

I hope that AA stick with it, but it would only take a hike in fuel costs to make them take a hard look JFK-BHX.

What I think is striking, is that as much as people bang on about how important transatlantic routes are, at least regionally, routes to the east are very much more sustainable and therefore it is absolutely right that BHX (and other airports) put so much effort into attracting Asian services.

[LandingConfig]

Originally Posted by VickersVicount

Ooft why is JFK so low?

EDI's figure is similar. Anyone know what MAN's has been like?

[MANFOD]

EDI's figure is similar. Anyone know what MAN's has been like?

MAN's figures for JFK include DL and TCX as well as AA. I originally calculated an overall LF of 92% which was based on 209 seats for AA in the revamped B767 J class version. However, some flights were the older config. so I think 90% overall is a reasonable figure for the combined 3 airlines.

Looking at seat plans I would suggest DL had a slightly higher LF than AA with their 171 seats B757 - both flights were invariably busy - but I've no idea about TCX loads with their 3 x weekly service and 322 seats on each.

[nwoody2001]

I suppose in a very simplistic sense, its a case of AA coming into the party after years of UA having the monopoly on the market. Consequently, if they want in, they will have to commit!


Whilst UA has a 92% LF and AA has a 66% LF, in simplistic terms, what that does tell us id that 15,340 pax travelled between BHX-NYC, a massive increase on last year. Also if the load balanced out, that would give each airline a LF of just short of 80% which again is pretty healthy.


In very simplistic terms, this shows that there is a market to sustain both routes, but if AA wants to increase their market share, they have to either a) tempt loyal UA pax over to AA or b) increase the number of pax coming to BHX in the first place... I hope the latter wins out!!

[nigel osborne]

NWOODY

Wonder if our AA loads stay this poor whether they will go seasonal.

I note the fares at the time of the 66% were low too so little room for manoeuvre.

However one crumb of comfort, the UA loads are now up to where they were before AA started. Lets hope therefore AA can start to build and significantly improve in the next few months.

Nigel

[ssflyer]

EK loads

A difficult question perhaps but can anyone identify the loads by flight.
Difficult-made worse by aircraft substitutions?
SSF

[ATNotts]

Originally Posted by nigel osborne

NWOODY

Wonder if our AA loads stay this poor whether they will go seasonal.

I note the fares at the time of the 66% were low too so little room for manoeuvre.

However one crumb of comfort, the UA loads are now up to where they were before AA started. Lets hope therefore AA can start to build and significantly improve in the next few months.

Nigel

Going seasonal would kill the route. I suspect that, as I mentioned earlier, so long as fuel costs are not an issue, AA will give the route time to develop, but I fear for it's future were there to be a price shock. Of course, what we don't know, is whether AA's pricing strategy is to get decent revenue on the seats they sell, rather than working like busy fools and slashing fares.

[nwoody2001]

I agree ATNotts


Going seasonal would only go to shun the business travelers which are needed to make the service work. Business travelers need consistency and frequency if they are to shift their allegiance from one airline to another. if AA were to only operate on a seasonal basis, then why would business or regular travelers switch between the two? you would stick with the airline that operates all year round and collect the airmiles... not go from one to the other unless there is a major difference in product and service (which we know there isn't)


if AA want to complete with UA, then they need to bed in a compete on the long-haul (no pun intended)... so we just have to see if AA have the stamina... I hope they do!

[Skipness One Foxtrot]

They've successfully grown the market as we can see, the first winter season in a UK regional transatlantic route would likely be a loss maker, surely that has been factored in?
Oddly enough American's presence also reminds people that United offer a direct routing as well, so oddly enough it can be a win for the airport if both carriers can find a mature niche. UA have not managed to grow the market beyond that one daily whereas at EDI they're up rto three daily in summer so good to see someone else trying to crack it.
Of course we're not far from having to replace those B757s and that's an issue for all UK regionals that can't support a year round B788. Where's there's a will there's a way though

[cheesebag]

Just wondered what the actual cost per mile difference is between flying a 788 across to the likes of BHX rather than the aging 752's ?

[nigel osborne]

Cheesebag,

Unfortunately the 787s have twice as many business class seats to fill than the 757s ,so doubt they would use those into BHX.

Nigel

[hammerb32]

Not sure Nigel, it's very difficult to get a business class seat with United in the summer, even out of season they appear to have good demand. Not sure how AA is getting on, sure I remember someone saying AA have a good cargo contract from BHX which would allow it some consistency in revenue whilst it beds in.

[OltonPete]

Emirates

ssflyer

I have seen some splits and without doubt EK37/8 is the most consistent throughout the year. If there are low loads as you might expect EK41/2 is the one but EK39/40 is the rumoured A388 in the future yet in May and June it would have difficulty filling an A321 let alone an A388.

I can't wait to see the October figures for EK as they were supposed to have been light at times but I assume the batteries ran out of the CAA calculator or they forgot to upload the new version of PDF or their Excel subscription ran out - it is not very often they are two days adrift of the estimated dates but perhaps a sign of things to come.

Skipness One Foxtrot

United loads at first dived but have recovered incredibly well and the BHX - USA market does seem to have been stimulated by competition but whether this has been done at the expense of fares I can't be sure. American were priced low in May and then went to what I would describe as normal until they dipped in October.

United seemed to have reduced their fares but not by nearly as much but I suppose as they have been in the market for years this was always going to be the case.

I thought the AA would have carried more when the fares were lower but they have tried to vary them a quite bit recently and worryingly I picked up a cheap fare for late June 2016, which I know for fact they won't make a cent on (and I mean that literally) but the days either side (Wednesday and Friday) were extortionate and I assume it is just their yield management at work.

Like others have said, I just hope they have patience.



Pete

[ssflyer]

OP
"October figures for EK as they were supposed to have been light at times"
We will see but half term was in late October and they were over booked on many flights with pax being offered cash/upgrades to move to later flights.
SS

[GHI]

BHX - NYC

I've flown on both of these flights in the last 6 months, each one going out economy and coming back business.

The United flight has a lot of legroom in economy with an on demand screen in the seat back and quite a nice business seat. The business cabin was full and there were a handful of empty seats in economy.

AA are flying quite old planes on this route cabin interior wise, it's a long time since I've flown transatlantic without a seat back screen, these had a few screens in the middle of the cabin showing a programme of films. In business I think the seat was the one before the current one AA are replacing. The interior also looked and felt old.

Regardless of this > 50% of the extra capacity between NYC and BHX has been filled in six months.

One of the other results of this is it appears the United flights have reduced in price since AA introduced this competition. I remember a couple of years ago rejecting this United flight and going to Heathrow as an economy ticket was nearly £300 more plus I'd have had to stay an xtra day because of the flight times.

I think there is quite a lot of unserviced demand for flights to North America from BHX and like for like or even paying a bit more I'd always choose BHX over going from Heathrow, but there is a lot of choice a couple of hours drive down the M40 when you are getting old equipment/poor connections/no direct flights.

[nwoody2001]

CAA numbers are finally out, not looked into it yet but great figures........

October 2015
921,150 (+5.0%)

Rolling Year
10,074,224 (+5.1%)

If we retain that 5.1% Year on Year growth, that would put BHX on 10.2m PAX for 2016... a nice number....

[getonittt]

If we retain that 5.1% Year on Year growth, that would put BHX on 10.2m PAX for 2016

I would be hoping for more than that for 2016 considering the large amount of new services and increases on existing ones.