BIRMINGHAM - 6

[nigel osborne]

Gayfriendly,

Al Bakar himself said that to expand there network they needed the 787..they have 60 on order 5 delivered and grounded.

The only other way they can find room for BHX would be to use one of the new 77Ws which of course is far to big, or cut one of thier other flights.

I don't have a crystal ball into the latter but Im not aware of any European services being chopped.

I will make no further comment on this topic its getting silly.


Nigel

[geoffco]

Re: QR
Just be patient, I think.
The size of the new airport at Doha will mean QR will look to expand dramatically in order to make full use of the new facilities. The Dubai economy is struggling whereas Qatar is still pumping gas; given time, QR will go head to head with EK on nearly all routes I think - including Brum.

[OltonPete]

February pax up 0.6%

Source: CAA

Pax 534462 up 0.6% rolling year 8914068 up 3.9%

One less day also to be considered.

Individual routes in general looked good although even adjusting for the one less day both EK and PK were down.

Pick of the bunch a 11% increase in CDG with one less day and no extra flights but some 321's. Some routes were down like Zurich And Geneva but in fact load factors were fantastic due less capacity.

ATM's 5394 down 5.8% wow quite a decrease.

Ryanair

High season additions Arricife July and August and a 10th Alicante a week.

A Saturday Malaga and Friday Faro has been known for months.

Pete

[BHX5DME]

BHX Route Anaylsis - Feb 2013

DUBLIN 42,380 up 1.76
DUBAI 38,723 down -8.92
AMSTERDAM 34,125 down -3.23
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE) 28,717 up 9.51
EDINBURGH 21,278 down -5.00
BELFAST CITY 19,999 down 14.00
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA) 19,198 down -20.70
FRANKFURT MAIN 19,019 up 4.87
GLASGOW 15,816 up 5.00
MUNICH 14,749 up 18.74
GENEVA 14,337 down -16.47
ALICANTE 13,380 down -22.63
DUSSELDORF 12,907 up 1.41
ARRECIFE 12,561 down -5.31
MALAGA 11,633 down -13.84
BELFAST INT 11,141 n/a
SHARM EL SHEIKH (OPHIRA) 10,263 up 41.79
ZURICH 9,654 down -14.03
FUERTEVENTURA 8,307 up 10.20
BRUSSELS 8,233 down -6.61
ISLAMABAD 6,691 down -15.94
NEW YORK (NEWARK) 6,100 0.00
CORK 6,096 up 3.92
ABERDEEN 6,027 down -3.00
FARO 6,019 up 10.95
COPENHAGEN 5,973 down -3.69
BARCELONA 5,861 up 1336.52
ISTANBUL 5,854 up 38.07
HANOVER 4,981 down -5.48
GRENOBLE 4,911 up 54.63
LAS PALMAS 4,739 down -31.80
BRIDGETOWN 4,095 up 0.37
ASHKHABAD 4,082 down -3.70
BYDGOSZCZ 4,042 up 13.13
ROME (FIUMICINO) 3,998 n/a
INNSBRUCK 3,866 up 21.57
RZESZOW 3,694 up 46.18
BERLIN (TEGEL) 3,523 n/a
DERRY 3,510 down -16.00
CHAMBERY 3,468 down -6.65
SALZBURG 3,265 down -0.15
FUNCHAL 3,073 up 94.86
BERGAMO 3,066 n/a
TURIN 3,025 down -27.58
KRAKOW 2,911 n/a
ISLE OF MAN 2,732 down -13.00
BRATISLAVA 2,643 down -29.09
KATOWICE 2,585 up 22.63
MALTA 2,549 up 1.63
HAMBURG 2,530 up 107.04
PALMA DE MALLORCA 2,522 n/a
VENICE 2,499 n/a
LARNACA 2,207 down -24.78
STOCKHOLM (ARLANDA) 2,183 n/a
JERSEY 2,179 0.00
ENFIDHA 2,170 up 86.91
SHANNON 2,107 down -6.36
CANCUN 2,033 up 15.97
GUERNSEY 2,028 up 14.00
INVERNESS 1,936 down -2.00
MILAN (MALPENSA) 1,823 up 29.66
ILHA DO SAL C.VERDE 1,746 up 8.11
SOFIA 1,733 up 8.93
BOA VISTA (RABIL) 1,722 up 36.45
HURGHADA 1,625 down -10.22
BANJUL 1,613 down -10.24
STUTTGART 1,460 down -46.17
IRELAND WEST(KNOCK) 1,437 down -55.68
TOULOUSE (BLAGNAC) 1,085 down -56.18
PADERBORN 1,082 down -4.25
KITTILA 792 n/a
NEWCASTLE 714 down -36.00
CALGARY 346 n/a
GOTEBORG 276 down -68.95
WATERFORD 273 n/a
BERLIN (SCHONEFELD) 243 n/a
SANTA CRUZ DE LA PALMA 243 n/a
LYON 236 -92.61
KIRUNA 210 n/a
KUUSAMO 114 n/a
TREVISO 97 n/a
DENSE 77 n/a
LE CASTELLET 31 n/a

[chuzwuza]

ezy bhx

Just had an interesting chat with a chap who works for a handling agent at bhx who says he has been told that ezy are proposing to base up to ten airframes here in the not too distant future. Anybody else heard anything similar? Sounds a little optimistic to me but you never know in this game.

[j636]

Since Belfast started there has being many rumours about a base. One that I heard just after Belfast started was that there would be 4 or 6 based from end of this month for the summer.

10 aircraft based there seems like madness, 6 at most if it was to happen. Would BHX operation have any impact on LTN?

[LAX_LHR]

If easyjet were to open a base at BHX, it is likely to be 3 based aircraft at most.

3 seems to be the benchmark for trying/testing operations to see what works. SEN opened with 3, NCL remains at 3, EMA was closed at 3 and other airports have opened with 3, but cannot remember which ones.

To open with 10, and more so 10 this year is just spotters fantasy.

[chuzwuza]

I tend to agree with the last post. 3 (at best) sounds a little more like it. We all know how much us blokes can exagerate

[chaps2011]

Where are they going to get the airframes from?

Chaps

[OltonPete]

Feb International Route analysis

Sources: -

Passenger figures: CAA
Average pax per flight: movements from a BHX Blog, libhomeradar and own notes
Load Factor: estimated from airline website configs and planespotters.net etc
Schedule International routes have been separated and as you can see some high load-factors for February. A couple have been removed as the mix between schedule and IT in the provisional figures are wrong such as SSH and CMF - I believe.

All you can say is what a difference a month makes as these seem good as stand-alone figures but compared to January 2013 they are amazing and not bad against Feb 2012 - Green shoots or shoot?

Fares in general were high on the sun routes but FR cities were lower.

One domestic of interest was Belfast at 116 pax or 74% load factor - fares were originally cheap but not too different to other UK routes.

Additions and corrections welcome

BRUSSELS 8,233 (8816)---39 pax---45%
LARNACA 2,207 (2934)---158 pax---76%
COPENHAGEN 5,973 (6202)---69 pax---64%
GRENOBLE 3396 (1624)----142 pax---78%
PARIS (CDG) 28,717 (26224)---93 pax---75%
BERLIN (TEGEL) 3,523 (nil)---93 pax---67%
DUSSELDORF 12,907 (12728)---50 pax---58%
FRANKFURT MAIN 19,019 (18136)---98 pax---70%
HAMBURG 2,530 (1222)---55 pax---64%
HANOVER 3058 (3018)---55 pax---70%
MUNICH 14,749 (12421)---84 pax---65%
STUTTGART 1,460 (2712)---32 pax----44%
CORK 6,096 (5866)---54 pax---76%
DUBLIN 42,380 (41646)---130 pax-72%
IRELAND WEST(KNOCK) 1437 (3242)---28 pax-55%
SHANNON 2,107 (2250)---41 pax---85%
WATERFORD 273 (nil)-68 pax---88%??? (I only have two flights operating)
BERGAMO 3,066 (nil)---128 pax---68%
MILAN (MXP) 1,823 (1406)---41 pax---47%
ROME (FIUMICINO) 3,998 (nil)---133 pax-75%
VENICE 2,499 (nil)---104 pax---60%
MALTA 2,549 (2508)---159 pax-84%
AMSTERDAM 34,125 (35263)---92 pax---83%
FARO 5702 (5425)---178 pax---88%
FUNCHAL 1549 (nil)---129 pax---74%
ALICANTE 11064 (14932)---184 pax---91%
BARCELONA 5,861 (o)---163 pax---86%
Girona Nil (2340)
MALAGA 10444 (12009)---187 pax---92%
PALMA DE MALLORCA 2,522 (nil)---158 pax 83%
ARRECIFE 5394 (6627)---200 pax---84%
FUERTEVENTURA 2871 (3479)---179 pax---89%
LAS PALMAS 2790 (4200)---174 pax---87%
TENERIFE 12015 (12690)---194 pax--93%
STOCKHOLM (ARN) 2183 (nil)---78 pax-65%
GENEVA 9990 (13047)----143---90% (one flight cancelled?)
ZURICH 9,654 (11229)---79 pax---72%
ISTANBUL 5,854 (4240)---105 pax---68%
PRAGUE nil (3408)
Kaunas nil (2546)
BYDGOSZCZ 4,042 (3573)---168 pax-89%
GDANSK Nil (2403)
KATOWICE 2,585 (2108)---162 pax---85%
KRAKOW 2533 (nil)----158 pax---84%
RZESZOW 3,694 (2597)---154 pax---81%
BRATISLAVA 2,643 (3727)---165 pax---87%
ASHKHABAD 4,082 (4239)----128 pax---74%
DUBAI 38,723 (42515)---345 pax---81%
IS LAMABAD 6,691 (7960) ---239 pax---67%
NEW YORK (NEWARK) 6,100 (6095)---133 pax---78%

Pete

[OltonPete]

easyjet

I would say the rumours originally were before Christmas after the BFS started and the Madrid base closing but it all went quiet in the New Year.

Surely this year they have missed the optimum time of a January announcement for a May or June start and as chaps2011 stated where would the aircraft come from?

I know easyjet are not shy at removing them from other bases and of course they do have a few more units due this year but I am not sure how many are already allocated (MAN/EDI) and how many more are to leave.

I have to agree with LAX_LHR that anything above three seems unlikely.

I think easy are the missing-link at BHX in terms of short-haul flights but personally a few more non-based in the short-term would be a start.

Geneva averaged 90% and fares seemed to be reasonable to high other than Feb half-term when they were expensive within a few weeks after release.

BFS is getting the numbers although still way below the easyjet network wide load factor but 74% in February is not bad although admit fares were soft until a week before departure (sometimes less on Tues & Wednesday flights).

Pete

Obviously not too late for July/August but time is ticking

[hammerb32]

10 routes maybe but 10 frames seems very wishfull thinking, agree with Peteas well thst it seems a little late to be announcing a new base this year.

[FRatSTN]

It may impact LTN which is why I think they have yet to open a BHX base. Expanding at one place at the expense of another seems to be the trend with EasyJet. SEN growth has drastically reduced STN flights (13 a/c in 2011, only 8 in 2013) and MAN expansion has left LPL with 2 less aircraft this year.

I don't know the exact figures but isn't BHX quite a high cost airport hence why there isn't already an EZY base and FR seem to have stagnated with 4 aircraft with the bulk of its growth at EMA.

With pratically every other major carrier in the UK (FR, BE, LS, ZB, TOM and TCX) all having bases in EMA, EZY have well and truely lost any chance of re-opening a base there.

The fact that BE and ZB both have a very large operation in BHX as well as TOM and TCX where BHX is one of their main bases along with the FR basing 4 a/c, is there enough demand for EZY in open a base in BHX?

I'm not ruling it out, just speculating. It would be great news. It would save going to LTN to get any decent range of EZY flights for us in the Midlands, but the Midlands is still quite well served without them.

[Guest 112233]

Just a note of thanks

OP, BHX Analysis - thanks, as always interesting reading.

Your work always beats the hype/Spin brigade.

[OltonPete]

Feb International Route analysis

CATIII-NDB

Cheers.

One correction from a pm and much appreciated but I was suspicious of the high load factor and that is Waterford. Three were scheduled but I only picked up two from libhomeradar but the missing one was the re-starts service on 22/2 which did operate I believe, making it 46 per flight and 58% load factor but not too bad after its little holiday.

Good to seek EK back over 80% also with 110 out of 112 movements on 428/442 seat aircraft.

FRatSTN - I think charges could still be an issue at BHX for FR going by how well the existing flights are doing.

The load factors in February on most routes are well above the network wide figure of 77% (except LDY & BGY) although I do concede some city routes were heavily discounted but at times only one or two of the based aircraft were flying with between 10 and 12 parked up.

The main moans I have heard this winter is the lack choice from BHX and the flights available have been expensive with countless tales of lost pax to Luton, East Mids and Stansted.


Pete

[rn750]

The main moans I have heard this winter is the lack choice from BHX and the flights available have been expensive with countless tales of lost pax to Luton, East Mids and Stansted.

But we keep being told by various sources there is no demand from BHX.. The demand is obviously there.. just not being serviced by the airlines..



It is so frustrating.


Adie

[chinapattern]

I’d hope that if EZY did ever set up a base at BHX then they’d go for some un-served routes rather than just the typical bucket and space flights.

[GayFriendly]

The demand is there but it seems airlines are happy for us in the West Midlands to travel to other airports from where it is cheaper for them to operate from. I for one in the past two years have flown from LTN, EMA, LPL and MAN primarily because there was no direct flight to where I was going from BHX and having researched connecting flight prices from BHX, it was considerably cheaper to do so. Although connecting options to European cities are readily available from BHX with LH, LX, AF etc they are often quite expensive. I'm flying to ZAG next week, cheapest connecting flight from BHX was around the £270 mark, BA from LHR direct was around £100. I'm not saying there should be a BHX-ZAG flight but that it easy for me to get to LHR and cheap to fly from there for this journey, even factoring in the cost of getting to LHR. Total journey time via LHR is little different to the flight connections I was offered by LH from BHX. Am sure there are thousands of other similar examples to more obvious destinations like MAD, LIS etc that other UK airports happily manage to maintain services to.

I have always said that BHX's central location and pretty good transport links are both a blessing and a curse.

[chinapattern]

bucket and space flights

Obviously that was meant to read bucket and spade! Thought I'd better make that clear before planeaddict gets carried away and starts posting about Virgin Gallactic flying from BHX!

Am sure there are thousands of other similar examples to more obvious destinations like MAD, LIS etc that other UK airports happily manage to maintain services to.

Same thing happened to me; much cheaper and quicker to fly MAN-PSA direct with Jet2 than going from BHX via CDG or MUC.

[groundhogbhx]

EK

OP

EK don't have any 442 seaters, haven't had for some time!