Ryanair - 9
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"Brussels Airport Company et Ryanair n'ont jamais été en contact à ce sujet et cette décision de la compagnie low-cost n'a fait l'objet d'aucune négociation avec l'aéroport", souligne mardi Brussels Airport dans un communiqué.
Moreover, BRU as a business (and euro-bureaucrat) airport, could have been targeted by FR as such. Instead, we see destinations like Alicante, Ibiza, Malaga...
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@pee
The route selection quite clearly was driven by Vueling's choice of routes. 1:1 copy of their BRU network pretty much.
SLOT COORDINATION BELGIUM
If someone can enlighten me, how Ryanair can get the necessary slots at BRU, when the airport so far completely unaware, that would be handy. Is slot coordination in Belgium secretive so an airport wouldn't know? I cannot imagine that Ryanair would first announce routes and frequency, and then try to get the slots retrospectively for it...?!
The route selection quite clearly was driven by Vueling's choice of routes. 1:1 copy of their BRU network pretty much.
SLOT COORDINATION BELGIUM
If someone can enlighten me, how Ryanair can get the necessary slots at BRU, when the airport so far completely unaware, that would be handy. Is slot coordination in Belgium secretive so an airport wouldn't know? I cannot imagine that Ryanair would first announce routes and frequency, and then try to get the slots retrospectively for it...?!
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All done via https://www.online-coordination.com/default.aspx
Looks like plenty of runway slots available, no data about terminal availability though.
Looks like plenty of runway slots available, no data about terminal availability though.
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(about the Alitalia offer)
The Italian press has no doubts:
Do I have to translate?
Next question:
No idea, but quite a few, I guess. Inevitably, some changes and cancellations TBA (implicating: new angry customers).
I would have very great difficulty in believing this was a sincere offer at normal co-operation between 2 airlines.
Ryanair, l’ultima provocazione di O’Leary su Alitalia
Next question:
While this hasty enlargement is easy to perform right now, in the beginning of winter, how many cuts in the already announced 2014 summer timetable must be made to accommodate all these new routes?
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I seem to recall that when Malev ceased flying, Ryanair announced a large number of new routes at Budapest, applying for access to the airport runway at almost the same time as the routes were being announced.
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Ryanair's new bases: Something doesn't add up
This attempt to obliterate Vueling's expansion from Rome and Brussels before it has even started is interesting. Does Ryanair really see Vueling as a serious threat that must be countered? The recent announcements suggest so. If Vueling had not recently been taken over by IAG would we be seeing the same reaction?
The other interesting question (which others asked at the time of the DUB / STN announcements) is where the aircraft are going to come from. The plans are for:
6 aircraft at Rome FCO
4 at Brussels BRU
2 at Catania
2 at Palermo
1 at Lamezia
2(?) new aircraft for the additional 700,000 passengers at Dublin
1 new aircraft for the extra Shannon flights
4 or 5(?) extra aircraft for the additional 1.3 million passengers at Stansted
This means that an additional 22-23 aircraft will be required for next summer.
Ryanair's new deliveries don't start until October 2014 and there are no others on order before them (at least not that have been announced). According to the latest investor presentation, the fleet size at the end of FY14 (March 14) will be 300, down from 303 for summer 2013. The projections are for growth to 308 by March 2015.
So either Ryanair need to get their hands on 20 additional aircraft very quickly, or existing bases are going to start losing aircraft, routes or frequencies. By my reckoning, 7 to 8% of all flights would need to be 'churned' to provide the level of capacity required for the new routes. If this is the case, we can expect widespread cuts to existing services. I wonder which airport contracts are up for renewal over the next few months?
The other interesting question (which others asked at the time of the DUB / STN announcements) is where the aircraft are going to come from. The plans are for:
6 aircraft at Rome FCO
4 at Brussels BRU
2 at Catania
2 at Palermo
1 at Lamezia
2(?) new aircraft for the additional 700,000 passengers at Dublin
1 new aircraft for the extra Shannon flights
4 or 5(?) extra aircraft for the additional 1.3 million passengers at Stansted
This means that an additional 22-23 aircraft will be required for next summer.
Ryanair's new deliveries don't start until October 2014 and there are no others on order before them (at least not that have been announced). According to the latest investor presentation, the fleet size at the end of FY14 (March 14) will be 300, down from 303 for summer 2013. The projections are for growth to 308 by March 2015.
So either Ryanair need to get their hands on 20 additional aircraft very quickly, or existing bases are going to start losing aircraft, routes or frequencies. By my reckoning, 7 to 8% of all flights would need to be 'churned' to provide the level of capacity required for the new routes. If this is the case, we can expect widespread cuts to existing services. I wonder which airport contracts are up for renewal over the next few months?
Ryanair's new deliveries don't start until October 2014 and there are no others on order before them (at least not that have been announced). According to the latest investor presentation, the fleet size at the end of FY14 (March 14) will be 300, down from 303 for summer 2013. The projections are for growth to 308 by March 2015.
So either Ryanair need to get their hands on 20 additional aircraft very quickly, or existing bases are going to start losing aircraft, routes or frequencies. By my reckoning, 7 to 8% of all flights would need to be 'churned' to provide the level of capacity required for the new routes. If this is the case, we can expect widespread cuts to existing services. I wonder which airport contracts are up for renewal over the next few months?
So either Ryanair need to get their hands on 20 additional aircraft very quickly, or existing bases are going to start losing aircraft, routes or frequencies. By my reckoning, 7 to 8% of all flights would need to be 'churned' to provide the level of capacity required for the new routes. If this is the case, we can expect widespread cuts to existing services. I wonder which airport contracts are up for renewal over the next few months?
Also Avolon Lease co has worked with FR previously and they have 14 on order, no idea of delivery time or whether allocated to customers.
Also possibly Boeing may be of assistance to one of its biggest customers.
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I hope the ever optimistic mr racedo is right but I have a sneaking suspicion that Anna_list has got it prettying spot on. Any base at an airport up for a new contract this winter is staring down the barrel of this announcement. I refer you to the goings on at BRS last winter as a precedent. Far more likely over capacity, under performance or rising costs have been identified and those aircraft redeployed. But those cuts won't get the big announcement.
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If Vueling had not recently been taken over by IAG would we be seeing the same
reaction?
reaction?
A war between Ryanair and Vueling could well be in easyJet's interest, as at this time easyJet management are watching with caution what the competing low costs airlines are planning. easyJet have been especially interested in what Vueling have been up to re Rome, and Norwegian in LGW and FR at STN. FR chasing Vueling out of town in respective markets would mean that easyJet have ultimately got FR to compete with rather than Vueling, which is a much closer match to them in terms of service etc
I hope the ever optimistic mr racedo is right but I have a sneaking suspicion that Anna_list has got it prettying spot on. Any base at an airport up for a new contract this winter is staring down the barrel of this announcement. I refer you to the goings on at BRS last winter as a precedent. Far more likely over capacity, under performance or rising costs have been identified and those aircraft redeployed. But those cuts won't get the big announcement.
But doubt that this has happened without a plan.
A war between Ryanair and Vueling could well be in easyJet's interest, as at this time easyJet management are watching with caution what the competing low costs airlines are planning. easyJet have been especially interested in what Vueling have been up to re Rome, and Norwegian in LGW and FR at STN. FR chasing Vueling out of town in respective markets would mean that easyJet have ultimately got FR to compete with rather than Vueling, which is a much closer match to them in terms of service etc
Oil prices have dropped because of Iran issue so that could have a sizeable impact in coming months.
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Regarding the fleet: I have noticed that some routes from regional airport e.g. BRE that I would usually use are yet to become bookable for summer 2014... I'd hope that's not where the planes come from.
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^^
I bet they are. E.g. TMP - PMI used to be bookable for several weeks, but a few days ago the route just disappeared. And indeed, there still exist some glitches in the system. Like BGY - TMP - BGY bookable one-way only. How many weeks will it take to amass half of the FR fleet in Tampere 
?
I'd hope that's not where the planes come from.
?
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Churn or grow in summer 2014?
Hi all,
Racedo, I agree that I would expect Ryanair to have a plan, although it might be a rather hastily assembled one. It's quite likely that the details of the plan (crews, slots, aircraft etc.) will be sorted out shortly. However, MO'L talked in the last couple of investor calls about the likelihood of the need for churn in order to 'finance' new routes. In addition, Ryanair has never before been in this position of needing to find an additional 20+ aircraft for the next season. If they do source more aircraft it will change the short term fleet and revenue projections, so I would expect a stock exchange announcement.
Churning routes (replacing the worst performers with new ones) is a good thing for an airline's financial performance. Easyjet's recent investor presentations have drawn attention to the fact that they have benefitted from it, and Ryanair have traditionally culled around 10% of their routes. But I can't help thinking that replacing poor performers by chasing Vueling around Europe's major airports may not be the best long term strategy.
On the other hand, churn isn't such a great thing for customers that happen to be booked on a route that gets reduced or cut. If Ryanair go down this path then anyone booking a flight at the moment could expect a 7-8% chance of their flight being 'churned'. (I'm being slightly unfair, since routes aren't churned at random: the worst performers are chosen, but customers are unlikely to book on this basis).
A number of summer routes that have been on sale in previous years from the end of March onwards are only on sale from June onwards this year (e.g. Dublin - Tallinn, Girona - Brindisi, Prestwick - Pisa, Palma - Krakow etc). This is new, but I can't see how it helps the problem over the peak summer period.
I'll be interested to see how the plan turns out. MO'L works in mysterious ways...
Hi EI-BUD,
Good point. I thought it strange that Norwegian's Gatwick and Spanish expansion didn't trigger a reaction from Ryanair, but that Vueling's Rome and Brussels plans were immediately attacked.
Racedo, I agree that I would expect Ryanair to have a plan, although it might be a rather hastily assembled one. It's quite likely that the details of the plan (crews, slots, aircraft etc.) will be sorted out shortly. However, MO'L talked in the last couple of investor calls about the likelihood of the need for churn in order to 'finance' new routes. In addition, Ryanair has never before been in this position of needing to find an additional 20+ aircraft for the next season. If they do source more aircraft it will change the short term fleet and revenue projections, so I would expect a stock exchange announcement.
Churning routes (replacing the worst performers with new ones) is a good thing for an airline's financial performance. Easyjet's recent investor presentations have drawn attention to the fact that they have benefitted from it, and Ryanair have traditionally culled around 10% of their routes. But I can't help thinking that replacing poor performers by chasing Vueling around Europe's major airports may not be the best long term strategy.
On the other hand, churn isn't such a great thing for customers that happen to be booked on a route that gets reduced or cut. If Ryanair go down this path then anyone booking a flight at the moment could expect a 7-8% chance of their flight being 'churned'. (I'm being slightly unfair, since routes aren't churned at random: the worst performers are chosen, but customers are unlikely to book on this basis).
A number of summer routes that have been on sale in previous years from the end of March onwards are only on sale from June onwards this year (e.g. Dublin - Tallinn, Girona - Brindisi, Prestwick - Pisa, Palma - Krakow etc). This is new, but I can't see how it helps the problem over the peak summer period.
I'll be interested to see how the plan turns out. MO'L works in mysterious ways...
Hi EI-BUD,
Good point. I thought it strange that Norwegian's Gatwick and Spanish expansion didn't trigger a reaction from Ryanair, but that Vueling's Rome and Brussels plans were immediately attacked.
Last edited by anna_list; 28th Nov 2013 at 10:47.