Ryanair - 9

[racedo]

Not everything is rosy, though....

Ryanair shares tumble on profits warning - Telegraph

Comment was they at bottom end of range rather than missing the forecast and market appears to reacted badly. Think its overdone.

[heidelberg]

SeaBF I think you've got in one.
Thank goodness Ryanair arrived on the scene to shake the high cost legacy airlines out of their over priced slumbers.
However I now believe the flying public are becoming more discerning and do want a little TLC and are prepared to pay a little extra for it.
I am one of those.

[pee]

Originally Posted by LGS6753

Not everything is rosy, though....

"In recent weeks we have noticed a perceptible dip in forward fares and yields into September, October and November "

Organizing a couple of group trips I've been forced to keep an eye on price trends over some weeks (and tolerate the captcha annoyance, never mind). Hence, I was able to notice some unfortunate efforts to rise the price level. To my mind, some three months in advance the fares on many routes used to be simply too high, many pax could have decided to buy elsewhere. Thereafter, maybe two month before the flight day, fares do drop significantly... too late for many old customers who got used to act "the sooner the better". Making the impact on yields?

On the other hand, flights from some small airports, where the locals cannot afford to pay more marketing support, are performing brilliantly with almost 100% LF and without any need to lower fares. Look at Lappeenranta, for example: full loads, high fares, yet the routes development stalled. Time to re-think some principles?

[berkshire boy]

Comment was they at bottom end of range rather than missing the forecast and market appears to reacted badly. Think its overdone.

The comment was that there was no guarantee that the outturn may not finish at or slightly below the lower end of the range - thus missing their forecast.

"However, the company warned that "if fares and yields continue to weaken over the coming winter there can be no guarantee that the full year outturn may not finish at or slightly below the lower end of this range".

[davidjohnson6]

SealinkBF - as long as Ryanair flies routes without competition or is substantially cheaper than airlines providing a bit of TLC, all without compromising reliability and punctuality, there will be an ongoing consumer demand for FR's product.

This is partly Lufthansa's rationale around Germanwings - if the difference after including things like luggage between a better airline's lowest fare and Ryanair is small, then people will often spend a *bit* more cash for quality.

[Sober Lark]

Investors are used to share price fluctuations so don't read into it too much.

SealinkBF, I don't believe they have reached their limit of bargain hunting passengers in Europe.

Remember their count of 81.5 million passengers is not 81.5 million different people. If you make a round trip you are counted as 2 passengers.

Those that want a little extra TLC will purchase the likes of lounge access, preferred boarding, reserved seating etc etc and they will still find them an attractive proposition.

[befree]

A small change in Load factor makes a big change in profits. I am sure that the C4 programme will take 0.5% off those who are happy to fly with MOL. The worst case for MOL is that he takes C4 to court and C4 manage to show in court that Ryanair cuts corners on safety.

[TSR2]

Remember their count of 81.5 million passengers is not 81.5 million different people. If you make a round trip you are counted as 2 passengers

.

And not forgetting the number of people that post on here taking considerably more than 1 return flight per year. I recall a while back that someone actually stated/boasted they took close to one hundred flights per year.

[RAT 5]

I suspect the CH 4 court case will have more viewers than "who shot JR...Dallas?"

[lexoncd]

Many many moons ago I worked for airtours who in the early years had a very simple pricing strategy £69 for a week self catering with each additional week £10. £13.84 airport taxes and you saved £5 because dan air only served coffee and biscuits. Fuel surcharges funnily enough were often 9.98% just below the 10% that allowed you to cancel..

Times changed. Abta got involved and airport taxes had to be included. Fuel surcharges had to be explained and op absorb the first 2%. Air Europe came along with hot meals on every flight and slowly airtours changed the quality of the product and grew knowing the cheap n cheerful and quite honestly couldn't give two hoots about the punters days were over.. The text is history but I sense the ryanair model has matured as much as it can. When you're charging so much for luggage it's cheaper to freight it your pushing the limits of pricing before people don't cut down the simply cut you out.

Notice easyjet adopting more of a legacy style and higher yields and growth. I see a great future for ryanair if/when they make the inevitable changes and retain a fare differential over competitors whilst abolishing some of the hoops and issues consumers are possibly become tired of.

[danielsirrom]

We use Ryanair regularly to fly into Knock for visiting family. We take on roll on bags and buy no extras. I always find, if you ask in a friendly manner, a member of ground staff will tip you the wink wrt the gate number before it's displayed on the boards enabling us to effectively priority board (after the 3 or 4 priority boarders!) They have never let us down, we're always on time and I find the staff friendly and professional.

Now when it comes to our family holidays we do not even consider Ryanair, this Summer we paid a higher fare and flew at a less sociable time with Thomson to Malaga.

It's weird I guess, but I just will not trust "that man" with our precious summer holiday.

[racedo]

I suspect the CH 4 court case will have more viewers than "who shot JR...Dallas?"

I very much doubt it will see the inside of a court room.................Counsel will advise on viability of a case and Insurance companies who would end up funding Liability insurance will act accordingly.

[racedo]

and Ryanair hit the lowest August load factor. Back in 2002 they where 95% full in August, in 2012 it is down to 88%. By January the loadfactors could be in the high 60%s

The hyper-lowcost model has had its day. Easyjet have fuller planes and are starting to allocate seats.

A small change in Load factor makes a big change in profits. I am sure that the C4 programme will take 0.5% off those who are happy to fly with MOL. The worst case for MOL is that he takes C4 to court and C4 manage to show in court that Ryanair cuts corners on safety.

You know Befree we miss you because when a negative story on earnings appear you only seem to want to post.......

Forecast of 1 year ago above to put it into context.

The claim of 1/2 % off load factor because of C4 is laughable as how many people actually saw C4 programme ?

Being a UK centric person you seem to assume the Miguel and Maria in Porto flying to Dole in France
1.) know who C4 is
2.) Care
3.) speak english to have understood it
4.) would have even have watched the program
rather than being more interested in the return flight in October for €150 to see family.

[RAT 5]

I very much doubt it will see the inside of a court room.................Counsel will advise on viability of a case and Insurance companies who would end up funding Liability insurance will act accordingly.

MOL has made a great show about this and sacked a longterm captain. He has said things that have tied his colours to the mast. If he backs down and does not fight his case it will say volumes for the unheard truth. Can he take that risk? Equally, can he take the risk to allow exposure in depth? Interesting decision times for the board. It is not a solo flight by MOL, but he has started the engine and asked for taxi. Will his other ATC colleagues allow takeoff?

[racedo]

MOL has made a great show about this and sacked a longterm captain. He has said things that have tied his colours to the mast. If he backs down and does not fight his case it will say volumes for the unheard truth. Can he take that risk? Equally, can he take the risk to allow exposure in depth? Interesting decision times for the board. It is not a solo flight by MOL, but he has started the engine and asked for taxi. Will his other ATC colleagues allow takeoff?

I'm talking about Dispatches lawsuit.

I am not commenting on dismissal case.

[ReallyAnnoyed]

Befree slates Ryanair at every opportunity, but you are not any more credible, racedo, as you seem to be the PR department of Ryanair.

[racedo]

Face

Any reason for the snide personal attack ?

[Bengt]

Not surprised..

pee:

To my mind, some three months in advance the fares on many routes used to be simply too high, many pax could have decided to buy elsewhere. Thereafter, maybe two month before the flight day, fares do drop significantly... too late for many old customers who got used to act "the sooner the better". Making the impact on yields?

I also believe FR has priced itself too high relying on the belief that people will book anyway as Ryanair is the cheapest.
Travelling regularly from Sweden to Barcelona FR has been the best value for money for me the last three years. This year however it changed as ticket prices were raised from €200 return to €350..
So I booked Vueling for the first time and will travel with them three returns this year...
Later FR lowered the prices so if I booked a July trip in June I would get the "usual" €200.
The pricing policy had obviously changed. Earlier years (at least on the NYO-BCN and NYO-GRO route) you would see a low price when tickets were released. The price would increase slowly and then 3-8 weeks in advance a the usual SALE would be on. In the summer there usually was no sale for the Meditteranean destinations except maybe for the Wednesday very late flight...
Long rant, but I think this policy change has cost FR a lot of revenue...

[Capetonian]

Since MoL's PR representative, Racedo, appears to be active on this thread, and chose to throw a comment at me the other day for referring to MoL in the following terms, I'll bite.

He is a slimebag of note, and I despise the way he does business,

Racedo's question to me was :

Why call someone that when you don't know him ?

Saying I despise the way someone does business is not a personal attack. It's my view of his ethics, or in this case, lack of ethics. I also, but of course Racedo chose not quote this part, have often said that I admire MoL for running one of the world's most succesful and profitable airlines with (up to now) an enviable safety record.

I called him a slimebag of note. That is derogatory, but accurately describes someone who has the skill to deflect all the negative comments made about him and all the flack that heads his way and to sit in press conferences calm, composed, and unphased.. For that too, I admire him.

Why call somethat when I don't know him? First of all, Racedo, how do you I don't know him? Assumption on your part. OK, I don't, although I have met him at an industry conference or two, and as it happens if I met him socially, I would probably like him, he's probably a very witty and pleasant person with whom one could have an intelligent conversation and a laugh. But I still depsise him for his business practices.

I didn't know the late Pol Pot, or Adolf Hitler/Schickelgruber, or Frederick West, or Nicolae and Elena Ceaucescu, or turning to those still (regrettably) alive, Robert Mugabe, but I think it is fair to say, without fear of contradiction, that they are rather unpleasant mass murderers.

MoL has deliberately created his own image, and even if 80 million people a year choose to travel on his airline because it seems cheap or goes where no-one else does, it's largely a negative image.

[befree]

We are very close to the end of Ryanair growth phase. In August FR passenger growth was 1%. Over the rolling year Growth was only 2%. Looking at Easyjet they are still growing, charging higher fares and not having loads of bad press.

Ryanair are not going to vanish but they are now needing to get use to be fully grown.