MANCHESTER - 9

[andy mach 1]

I know its going slightly off topic:

But according the the draft figures for 2012(latest I found) from the DFT the busiest UK port is Immingham/Grimsby with 60.1 million tonnes. Comparable data from the CAA for 2012 show Heathrow as 1.46 million tonnes. The DFT only shows the top 10 ports with Felixtowe as 7th 26.3 million tonnes and Dover 9th with 22.9 million tonnes.

So I think the figures are incomparable as they completely different types of ports. Do we class Drax power station as a port? Handled/burned approx 7.6 million tonnes in 2012

[BasilBush]

Heathrow's selective use of statistics is based on a ranking by value of cargo handled. From memory Heathrow has been top on that basis for decades. It would have been helpful if that was made clear in the article!

Obviously only high value (or time sensitive) cargo goes by air.

[airhumberside]

This also means that one Hainan starts MAN, that's it, we won't be able to deal with Air China or the likes on Beijing.

Air China (and I think only Air China) have received exemptions from that policy in the past

EDIT - link covering the subject http://centreforaviation.com/analysi...tations-156522

[sarah19981]

Hainan

So with all this tension with hainan when do we realisticly think there will be a announcement made as it's starting in May?
I do feel quite confussed!

[EI-BUD]

Reading comments here about a new service ex man and STN by Hainan, suggest that if STN doesn't work the man route could be jeopardised in some way. It's important to remember that the airline will operate on a commercial basis, Ie if STN doesn't work, MAG won't want to lose the route ex MAN etc etc. the airline will be in a strong position opposite mag.

It seems perfectly logical that mag would want to develop STN and if an incentive including MAN can be the vehicle then why not.

Lack of connectivity at stn with non low cost carriers makes it challenging for long haul carriers. Equally looking at BA's recent foray into london chengdu shows how difficult it is to develop and sustain new long haul routes, and that from a key hub. BA cite other challenges such as visas etc as factors. So it's not straight forward by any means.

[Bagso]

Manchester-China Forum appoints executive director - Manchester Evening News

Setting up this group was specifically about Manchester NOT Stansted.

See paragraph by Charlie Cornish.

What on earth do MAGs partners think ?

As I mentioned earlier there was no mention of Stansted !

This group was instrumental in getting negotiations underway to have the UK China bilateral amended in the first place ! Pressure was put on Government and to his credit the Chancellor did at least also get involved to assist.

A positive outcome came about weeks ago, we have now lost 2 months of potential advance bookings and now there is a suggestion it's because STN has some how been shoe horned into the negotiations !

ANO if true how on earth do they end up with a daily service ?

[Logohu]

Taking the optimistic view, one would hope that the appointment of such an experienced and (presumably) expensive executive is another indication of an impending direct service from MAN to China.

Otherwise it's a bit like employing a manager for a grocery shop that has no groceries to sell.

[Curious Pax]

Seems to me like rational thinking has gone out of the window at the first mention of the dreaded "S" word!

Based on what LAX has said, MAN and Hainan were at the handshake stage for MAN flights, suggesting that both sides believe that a profitable service is viable. Someone has then heard Hainan were looking at LGW in addition to MAN. 'Hold on' they said, 'if you send those flights to STN instead of LGW we can improve the deal we have already agreed even further'. 'That interests us' said Hainan, 'we'll have some negotiating to do to sort out permissions for the STN end, so we'll hold off announcing the MAN flights until we know if STN is going ahead. Bigger headlines if we can announce 2 destinations at the same time. It's 7 months before we plan to launch MAN, so hanging on for a few weeks isn't going to make significant difference'.

If the announcement hasn't happened by the end of the year (which would still give 5 months ahead of the start date) then I might start to get concerned, but 7 months? Get real!

Further down the line if the profitability of either route isn't working out as well as they hoped, then I'm sure Hainan would use the fact that increasing airport charges if they dropped one of STN or MAN would place the other one in jeopardy as a negotiating point.

To my mind the biggest potential fly in the ointment is if Air China decide they want the MAN-PEK route for themselves, and Chinese politics dictates that their wishes supercede Hainan's wishes.

[MANFOD]

Curious Pax, your scenario is a very reasonable one. What does occur to me is what happens if Hainan decide on LGW after all? Would they be prepared to keep to the original MAN deal (without STN), or press MAG to accept the terms they could have had with MAN plus STN? I suppose it could depend on how the 'double' package was structured and whether the same charges applied to both airports or whether the 'discount' favoured STN more strongly.

[commit aviation]

Is it possible the STN route isn't passengers at all but cargo?? I know the director for cargo is out that way drumming up business at the present time. Perhaps someone is putting 2 & 2 together & coming up with 5 (....& quite possibly that someone is me!!!) ;-)

[Bagso]

I have no issue with Heathrow attempting to market their services in the NWest, its no different to MAG advertising on the London Underground, I do however see it as something of a failure of communication on MAGs part that this organisation seemingly sees Heathrow as the natural entry/exit point for the UK.

Billboards in Yorkshire and Midlands, great but if you are unable to garner automatic support in what is after all your core market, well to me this does suggest something is amiss re communication !

New routes to BRIC destinations are fine, BUT are well down the track in terms of priority for NWest Business ! The President of said Chamber(Pots) would have been well advised to use this opportunity to canvass for new routes to India and dare I say it China for his members from Manchester than speculative routes to Brazil, Nigeria etc in 15 years time !



FairDealFrank

Always enjoy your posts and you are clearly as passionate a supporter of Heathrow as I am with regard Manchester !

There is a constant theme of connectivity to the regions which LHR also champion in there adverts.

Given that Virgin have just axed various "trunk" routes to Heathow where does that leave the domestic connectivity debate ?

Do we assume that this connectivity has to be introduced by BA ?

Are they going to invest in a short haul fleet on what to me appears to be a punt ?

They seem lukewarm with regards to RW3 anyway as their market share generally will reduce considerably, what we have we hold might be the mantra, so who exactly picks up that mantle, FlyBe or a new entrant ?

And what of these "unserved regions"

Liverpool - KLM connected a "Global hub" 3 times day recently , the service last barely 18 months.

Teeside - Do you go head to head with KLM ? Given that the cost base does not support charters, it does beg the question as to the long term viability of even this route, so would LHR be dooable ?

Humberside - Again do you go head to head with KLM ?

Your thoughts ?

[Skipness One Echo]

Domestic connectivity could be ring fenced with x% of new slots allocated to new unserved destinations. Remember how well INV-LHR did for Dan Air even though it was a stand alone? So INV, JER, GCI, IOM could all support a LHR link but at the cost of some LGW/STN connections. It would allow connectivity to the world without the troop around the M25. It can be done, there just needs a pricing policy to support it as part of the agreement to expand LHR.

I doubt LPL, BHX or NQY could make the case but it depends how supportive any government wants to be outside the craziness of the London bubble.

Keeping those markets out of LHR serves MAN in a small way as they can be connected one stop via MAN in a way they cannot be over London.

[North West]

Given that Virgin have just axed various "trunk" routes to Heathow where does that leave the domestic connectivity debate ?

That unless you have the appropriate level of scale to feed and de-feed the hub, it doesn't work. Little Red were attracting point to point passengers at relatively low yield and competing in part with their own point to point service on the railway

Do we assume that this connectivity has to be introduced by BA ?

They have the scale, so naturally. Or an affiliate they could partner with to offer code-share agreements. Similar to Stobart / Aer Lingus or bmi regional / Lufthansa

Are they going to invest in a short haul fleet on what to me appears to be a punt ?

They have a short-haul fleet. There are lots of short-haul routes in and out of LHR. If there were greater access into LHR then the opportunities to consider partnerships with airlines with smaller a/c become more viable both for the UK domestic market and access from smaller mainland Europe markets.

[rutankrd]

Quote:
Given that Virgin have just axed various "trunk" routes to Heathow where does that leave the domestic connectivity debate ?
That unless you have the appropriate level of scale to feed and de-feed the hub, it doesn't work. Little Red were attracting point to point passengers at relatively low yield and competing in part with their own point to point service on the railway

Oft quoted and just plain wrong the Virgin franchises have nothing in common let alone the fact that the rail franchise is largely in the hands of Stagecoach whilst the airline Delta.

You think a UK based bus company and the worlds biggest airline oh part time oil refining company talk really ?

Do we assume that this connectivity has to be introduced by BA ?
They have the scale, so naturally. Or an affiliate they could partner with to offer code-share agreements. Similar to Stobart / Are Lingus or bmi regional / Lufthansa

I think the Irish gentleman at the top table of IAG rather thinks poorly of franchising- He closed down those on home turf some years ago.

Quote:
Are they going to invest in a short haul fleet on what to me appears to be a punt ?
They have a short-haul fleet. There are lots of short-haul routes in and out of LHR. If there were greater access into LHR then the opportunities to consider partnerships with airlines with smaller a/c become more viable both for the UK domestic market and access from smaller mainland Europe markets.

Fundamentally this is probably the real sticking point for many of the neo-liberal economists in the right of the Tory party - Specifically such investment might be seen as a subsidy toward BA/IAG and not true market lead competition.

Many of those neo-libs pretty much control the party and the Tory's couldn't give toss about loss of transfer passengers so long as they can get to/from New York twice an hour !

[kjsharg]

CX

Hi all,

Hows Cathay looking for the loads as it starts soon?

They still looking at increasing frequency?

[kieb92]

According to Jethros, Jet2 to lease an A330-300 from Air Asia X and to be MAN based for Summer 2015

[nigel osborne]

FRASTN.

Re your "It's not that there's not enough demand for long-haul from STN believe me!"

Absolutely !

The problem and its a major one, is that STN has been unable to get business travellers to travel to STN in large numbers for the long haul full fare airlines.

Just ask American Airlines for one, who tried it twice !


Not sure how you change that unless the UK Govt forces those airlines out of LHR into STN.


Nigel

[nigel osborne]

Folks,

Whats the plans for the Jet 2 A333, will it replace MON to Florida and do Med flights for Cosmos ??


Nigel

[Fairdealfrank]

I have no issue with Heathrow attempting to market their services in the NWest, its no different to MAG advertising on the London Underground, I do however see it as something of a failure of communication on MAGs part that this organisation seemingly sees Heathrow as the natural entry/exit point for the UK.

It is the natural entry/exit point for the UK to/from countries that can only support one route to the UK, if there are more, then other UK airports come into the equation, usually starting with Ringway.

FairDealFrank

Always enjoy your posts and you are clearly as passionate a supporter of Heathrow as I am with regard Manchester !

Thank you Bagso, but in fairness, am a supporter of all UK airports, including Ringway. Want to see the aviation industry prosper and really don't see it as either/or. Also believe that Heathrow expansion is critical for the UK, good for all UK airports, and it doesn't harm Gatwick.

There is a constant theme of connectivity to the regions which LHR also champion in there adverts.

Given that Virgin have just axed various "trunk" routes to Heathow where does that leave the domestic connectivity debate ?

Clearly this is needed, it is ludicrous that only 7 UK airports are linked to Heathrow.

As for VS, think it's a pity that it hasn't worked, but it wasn't widely advertised or promoted. My impression is that VS's heart wasn't really in it (VS did not take up the full allocation of slots) and it was a case of going through the motions to deny something to BA: another 9 slot pairs.

Do we assume that this connectivity has to be introduced by BA ?

Are they going to invest in a short haul fleet on what to me appears to be a punt ?

Would have said not, apart from INV or JER perhaps. BA doesn't have small enough planes for the thin routes. Think it would be a job for smaller carriers, BD reg, BE, or T3 perhaps, with some sort of through-ticketing/code-sharing arrangements with BA, VS, and/or other carriers.

They seem lukewarm with regards to RW3 anyway as their market share generally will reduce considerably, what we have we hold might be the mantra, so who exactly picks up that mantle, FlyBe or a new entrant ?

No, BA are not lukewarm to another rwy, it need more slots. BA also need its flights to be able to arrive/depart on time, and not to waste fuel and time queing to take off and stacking to land.

If/when(?) another rwy opens the airport goes from operating at 99% capactity to 67% at a stroke. This means free slots for all, incuding BA and VS, and for as many other carriers that want them.

Would expect to see a U2 presence (taking on BA) and the likes of BD reg, BE, or T3 on the thinner routes.

And what of these "unserved regions"

Liverpool - KLM connected a "Global hub" 3 times day recently , the service last barely 18 months.

Teeside - Do you go head to head with KLM ? Given that the cost base does not support charters, it does beg the question as to the long term viability of even this route, so would LHR be dooable ?

Humberside - Again do you go head to head with KLM ?

Heathrow Airport Ltd. appear to believe so.

MPs from up and down the country want their areas connected, and these votes would be necessary to get any legislation through. BA, VS and others need the feed for their long haul flights.

From Heathrow Airport Ltd. publication “Connecting Regions”:

“A third runway will allow more flights to destinations such as Exeter, Liverpool, Newquay, Jersey, Inverness, Isle of Man and Humberside will give regional passengers more choice over routes and fares.”

Page 14 of the Heathrow Airport Ltd. publication “Taking Britain Further” shows a map of existing and possible future domestic connections. The latter includes CWL, EXT, HUY, INV, JER, LPL, NQY.

The first list includes IOM, the map CWL, the other airports are on both the list and the map.

Have to admit, wasn't expecting HUY to be on the list, nor CWL on the map, and surprised not to see GCI, MME and NWI.

One thing Heathrow could offer pax at small regional airports over and above connections to the world is a link to London (important in our centralised country) and to the many businesses located in the Thames Valley. Being able to offer all of these would make thin routes viable.

Your thoughts ?

Hope you like them!

[Fairdealfrank]

Domestic connectivity could be ring fenced with x% of new slots allocated to new unserved destinations. Remember how well INV-LHR did for Dan Air even though it was a stand alone? So INV, JER, GCI, IOM could all support a LHR link but at the cost of some LGW/STN connections. It would allow connectivity to the world without the troop around the M25. It can be done, there just needs a pricing policy to support it as part of the agreement to expand LHR.

Yes, LGW and STN would lose some links.

I doubt LPL, BHX or NQY could make the case but it depends how supportive any government wants to be outside the craziness of the London bubble.

BHX-LHR was a BD route back in the day, probably not coming back. As for the other two, Heathrow Airport Ltd. appear to believe so. If there is a PSO for NQY at that time, imagine that would shift to LHR, ditto DND.

That unless you have the appropriate level of scale to feed and de-feed the hub, it doesn't work. Little Red were attracting point to point passengers at relatively low yield and competing in part with their own point to point service on the railway

VS failed to do what BD had done: a deal with the star Alliance for connections.

I think the Irish gentleman at the top table of IAG rather thinks poorly of franchising- He closed down those on home turf some years ago.

Things change, collaboration doesn't have to be franchising.

Fundamentally this is probably the real sticking point for many of the neo-liberal economists in the right of the Tory party - Specifically such investment might be seen as a subsidy toward BA/IAG and not true market lead competition.

More likely to be interfering EU busy-bodies poking their unwanted noses in.

Regretably we're unlikely to have left the EU if and when a third LHR rwy opens.

Both are unlikely in most of our lifetimes.