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Old 6th Apr 2014, 22:05
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What figures are you seeing? Loads I assume.
No view of costs, revenue or yield, p2p or connecting? We both know there are people well above our pay grade who will crunch those numbers and decide if moving a B763 into the market vacated by B757s is a smarter move than adding capacity into one of the other hubs. It's not about "clogging up space", it's about making most efficient use of your assets.
There are some tough decisions to be made out of who wins and who loses across American at DFW, JFK, MIA, ORD and US at PHL,CLT and PHX and we won't know for a while yet.

With the B772 losing First class it may be an opportunity to upgauge ORD and drop one route from CLT/PHL, and that's not really a bad thing all in. That way American is hubbing through a maximum of three gateways rather than spreading itself over four. The p2p on Charlotte won't be anywhere near a Chicago or New York.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 03:20
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As LAX-LHR says, MAN has surprised Skipness in the past. His gloomy prognostications regarding Manchester's services have something of the dead hand of the type of accountant/banker who looks not at cost benefit analysis but at the bottom line alone. That attitude has killed many a promising business, including a number of airlines, when instant profit hasn't materialised.

Sound business is built on choice, service, building a customer base, generating loyalty and consistency at a competitive price rather than launching a product in a new market expecting instant take up, and large returns from minimal costs.

An interesting thought. EU deregulation and the removal of the constant BA and its forebears' objection to overseas airlines operating direct from MAN was accompanied by the rise of the implant travel agent, an easy target for airlines to flood with discounts to fill business class seats on often not the most convenient route, to the joy of company accountants and the annoyance of the passenger who has to toe the company line, even if this means getting up hours earlier than necessary, making inconvenient changes, often with changes of terminal, and getting home often a full day later than a direct service would allow.

I speak from experience and also know from having lived half my life in, and a large percentage of my business life promoting, the area that there is a great deal of business traffic potential for many routes if the airlines did not heavily discount business fares over London from provincial airports to help fill the cabins London is reputed to fill on its own.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 05:47
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What figures are you seeing? Loads I assume.
No view of costs, revenue or yield, p2p or connecting
Yes, yes, yes and yes. I work for BA, which has a JV with AA and therefore a lot of information sharing as the profits and costs are shared. As I said, due to that I have seen the figures for JFK/ORD but not PHL and obviously not CLT.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 07:16
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That attitude has killed many a promising business, including a number of airlines, when instant profit hasn't materialised.
Dead hand? Instant profit? Most airlines fail in the first six months due to a lack of "instant profit". The bottom line pays the bills as one bad season can kill most airlines, Chapter 11 mega carriers excepted. I am not being gloomy, go back and read what I said. There's a sensible opportunity to consolidate without impacting much on customer choice and still cut costs and increase revenue. Apologies for not singing from the fan boy hymn sheet but a four daily 2015 might happen but for 2016 it's not sensible in this market.

One spoke to four hubs on three aircraft types with two of them served by a fleet being fast track retired? Surely a B772 to PHL/ORD each would make more sense? What was AA planning for JFK once the B757s go?

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Old 7th Apr 2014, 07:24
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Philby I hope your not suggesting Heathrow is being propped up by provincial airports as total UK demand is funneled into the South East, my God you will give Skip a heart attack.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 12:18
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Only to the same extent that he consistently denies the possibility that there is a chance for direct and consistent long haul from provincial airports. In other words, yes.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 12:53
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No I don't, that's garbage. Try and find a link where I actually say that.
MAN does really well, BHX stalled where it is, GLA likewise, EDI powers ahead as the city becomes more independent minded and NCL is unlikely. BFS is constrained by DUB and BHX/LGW likewise with LHR and BRs lost out entirely as the same aeroplane made more money flying that little bit further up the M4.
Please don't misrepresent what I am saying, I am a firm supporter of MAN adding to it's long haul tally. My comments ref Cathay back a page or two should confirm that, I can also see Air China (or similar) in the next year or so.

What I can't see is American serving four hubs from MAN when they can make more money operating 2/3 with larger equipment. Indeed the new B77Ws are displacing B772s to make this a reality soon as they are having First removed and could replace the B763 to ORD. Newer product, larger aircraft and potentially more throughput on a B772 / A333 / B763 on ORD/PHL/JFK as the new American cross fleets with former US.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 13:21
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Even as a MAN fan, I have to say I think Skip makes a fair point about the 4 AA hubs and equipment type.

While I can see come consolidation on those destinations, hopefully with some larger a/c, I do wonder if alternative hubs which provide different / wider connecting opportunities might be a possibility. I suppose Miami with connections to S America and the Caribbean, plus potential cruise business, is the obvious candidate.

At a meeting I attended last year, I was quite surprised to learn from a senior executive of MAG that MAN's most underserved destination, despite existing services, was New York, presumably due in part to a higher proportion of O & D traffic. This was taking into account passengers within our catchment area who bypassed MAN to fly from LHR or via other airports, as well as pax flying from MAN but not on our non-stop flights. If AA pulled off JFK (but kept PHL), a single B757 by UAL would surely be inadequate, although they might be tempted to go 2 x daily again (at the expense of IAD? - I hope not) like EDI or introduce a larger a/c. Their J class, albeit with only 16 seats, seems to do well and when I've checked I've not found any significant discounting of fares.

The other destinations which have been tried before are Dallas and Boston. The latter is more O & D although MAN, while not a hub, does I understand get a modest number of transfer pax for US flights including some from mainland Europe. However, Dublin may prove a more attractive transfer option for pax heading for Boston from airports without a direct service.

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Old 7th Apr 2014, 15:18
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B772 / A333 / B763 on ORD/PHL/JFK as the new American cross fleets with
former US
I agree that these 3 destinations will continue, and I do agree that CLT is the unknown link, but, I had heard plans that AA were to run a B757 to CLT in the summer, and a B763 to MIA in the winter.

The point I was trying to labour earlier was that the main hubs of JFK/ORD/PHL were strong hubs that would continue, and words internally are that CLT will continue at least next summer. Nobody knows what will happen summer 2016. In a 50/50 chance scenario there could be expansion just as well as there could be contraction.

If I am considered to be a fanboy for my views then so be it.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 15:39
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MANFOD
To quote you:
'I suppose Miami with connections to S America and the Caribbean, plus potential cruise business, is the obvious candidate.'

AA/Miami is often assumed to be the best way to connect to the Caribbean and South America, but it isn't.

Delta's growing network out of Atlanta to this region places it streets ahead right now by all the measures that matter to me:

AA vs Delta = Delta just have a much better TATL product. Service seems to matter. AA frankly offers a pretty naff, indifferent product and service.

Miami Airport vs Atlanta Airport = Atlanta is a very well run, pleasant and efficient airport / Miami Airport at times feels like the gateway to hell.

The overall transfer experience = Delta/Atlanta wins hands down. On many transfers you get to check your bag thru to final destination unlike Miami. Border and security at ATL are both well staffed, courteous and efficient - all the things they aren't at Miami.

Given we already have Delta to Atlanta (Business Class of 36 and pretty rammed when I'm on it) we're pretty well served I would say.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 15:47
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It is a fair point Skip BUT would any of us have given SAUDIA a prayer six months back ?

Even the most passionate dare say deluded supporters of MAN (me included), would have thought no chance !

I'm sure you would, at the time, have justifiably quoted the squeeze from the MEBs, lack of connectivity, lack of branding et al, I would have agreed , BUT lo and behold there is already talk of expanded frequency to 4 a week, poss daily according to LAX and larger aircraft are already being used !

...and what if LHR does not get its RWs where then ?

Is it not better to focus on a secondary UK airport no matter how flaky you consider its credentials ?

Countries want to do business with London and indeed the UK plc !

I don't necessarily buy into this idea that everybody will migrate to Amsterdam, Paris etc if airlines cannot get into LHR, some will, but surely others will look at other opportunities, we are trading nation and countries will look for opportunities, if that mean flying 200 miles North to access a market ...they will !

Manchester connects 18 UK domestic points LHR now only12, it is equidistant to Leeds, Sheffield, Bradford and indeed Liverpool by car, if you want to bring wealth to the North is there not therefore an argument that MAN is as vital as LHR for UK trade or does that not count ?

What's the point in serving LHR "The Hub" if that hub does not then connect the rest of the UK and you cannot get to the City where you are doing business ?
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 16:07
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poss daily according to LAX
It was actually another poster who stated daily Saudia, Ive only pointed out the 4th weekly (Saturday) flight that has appeared in the MAN timetable.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 18:35
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Wink

Good argument bagso, point taken but MAN is measurably not as vital to the UK economy as LHR, that's a metric that should be clear. MAN should be the powerhouse of the greater region, pulling in as it always has traffic from Scotland and surrounding regions.
However that potential is massively limited without the critical mass of a based hub carrier, like LH has at MUC. For reasons covered ad nauseaum, that's....unlikely! So it's about criticality of scale, and realistically, that's unachievable as things stand. MAN is a critical spoke on many hubs but what UKPLC needs is an onshore hub as part of the national transport strategy. * pauses for laughter all round to stop

And yeah, Saudia, interesting one, fair play!

And again, I do not consider MAN to have flaky credentials, it's the airlines that are not considering it for the role you propose, not me.
Are Virgin expanding into MAN-JFK/EWR? BA rebuilding a hub? No, as sadly, nowadays, they can't beat the competition. Though I suspect BA could run a B788 on MAN-JFK if they actually did have a non LHR biased JV with AA.

MAN doesn't connect all those domestic destinations, it's customer airlines do, and until you get a seamless connection/brand/alliance experience, you cannot maximise out that potential. However that sounds like BA Connect and that didn't work too well. However it will be tried again I am sure and good luck to who ever cracks it.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 18:53
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At a meeting I attended last year, I was quite surprised to learn from a senior executive of MAG that MAN's most underserved destination, despite existing services, was New York, presumably due in part to a higher proportion of O & D traffic. This was taking into account passengers within our catchment area who bypassed MAN to fly from LHR or via other airports, as well as pax flying from MAN but not on our non-stop flights. If AA pulled off JFK (but kept PHL), a single B757 by UAL would surely be inadequate, although they might be tempted to go 2 x daily again (at the expense of IAD? - I hope not) like EDI or introduce a larger a/c. Their J class, albeit with only 16 seats, seems to do well and when I've checked I've not found any significant discounting of fares.
There is a major league market distortion of the UK-NYC market up to 28 flights a day from the South East corner and many with rather large wide bodies 744 and 77W . This is to appease a certain market dynamic however it means a massive over capacity in the back of the bus.
This excess in steerage is dumped via the myriad of internet resellers at stupid fares.

I have to say through I agree with Skips assessment of the AA/US merger something gotta give in the North East Seaboard and would be surprised to see Charlotte return in future years.
Given the current drive to develop the international status of Fortress DFW I kinda think a return here with short cruise/winter season Miami would make more sense -however what do I know.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 19:08
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MAN doesn't connect all those domestic destinations, it's customer airlines do, and until you get a seamless connection/brand/alliance experience, you cannot maximise out that potential. However that sounds like BA Connect and that didn't work too well. However it will be tried again I am sure and good luck to who ever cracks it
Flybe is trying this again, and has done so for about 18 months.

It has the seamless domestic operation (I assume its seamless as flybe have said 20% of its MAN passengers are connecting and I have not heard of any horror stories).

It also connects onto Etihad and Air France flights and no doubt some others too.

Yes, its not LHR or BA level of hubbing, but Rome wasn't built in a day.
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Old 7th Apr 2014, 20:49
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...and what if LHR does not get its RWs where then ?
AMS, CDG, FRA.


Is it not better to focus on a secondary UK airport no matter how flaky you consider its credentials ?

Countries want to do business with London and indeed the UK plc !
Indeed it is, but it doesn't always work that way. Is there enough premium business and cargo to support direct long haul flights? If not, carriers will funnel pax thru their hubs.

I don't necessarily buy into this idea that everybody will migrate to Amsterdam, Paris etc if airlines cannot get into LHR, some will, but surely others will look at other opportunities, we are trading nation and countries will look for opportunities, if that mean flying 200 miles North to access a market ...they will !
You should, because that is what happens, as the LGW boys will tell you.

Under normal circumstances, no one would fly to MAN if their final destination is in the South. They will travel via their chosen carrier's hub and then take a connecting flight to their final UK destination. Why do you think that 20+ UK airports are connected to AMS?

If we didn't have this stupid unresolved capacity crunch at LHR, it would also be connected to 20+ UK airports.

Manchester connects 18 UK domestic points LHR now only12, it is equidistant to Leeds, Sheffield, Bradford and indeed Liverpool by car, if you want to bring wealth to the North is there not therefore an argument that MAN is as vital as LHR for UK trade or does that not count ?
No, it's worse than that: LHR is connected to just 7 UK airports: ABZ, BHD, EDI, GLA, LBA, MAN and NCL.

Yes, of course there is an argument, and would love to see it happen, but you cannot force or direct carriers to go MAN. The conditions for them to be able to make money on the route have to be there. Is it?

What's the point in serving LHR "The Hub" if that hub does not then connect the rest of the UK and you cannot get to the City where you are doing business ?
Because LHR generates more premium business then the rest of the UK airports put together. This premium business requires frequency which LHR provides. In fact the overall number of destinations at LHR is reduced to provide that level of frequency.

With the exception of some thinner routes, LHR also provides a wealth of connections that other UK airports cannot (except on non-trunk UK domestic routes where it's needed).
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Old 8th Apr 2014, 04:12
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OK so perhaps I was a bit harsh on Skip but, going back to his point re the now American flights from the eastern seaboard destinations, I'd be interested to know how the potential market has changed in the case of each city pair just because one airline has taken over another.

Both company's sales/marketing/operations departments will have made their assessments of the potential for each route and in all but the case of CLT will have factual information.

Given the distances between the US cities involved and the markets they serve and, though US travellers are used to connecting flights, most travellers in those markets would prefer direct flights, if only to save time, hassle and potential delays.

What may happen, if the airline bean counters wish it so, is that the direct flights will be priced out by fare manipulation making a flight from to MAN, with a change of flight over any other of the gateways significantly cheaper than the direct flight. Fellow bean counters, who care little about travel hassles, many of whom have never seen a map since their last geography class in school and even then weren't paying attention, would then immediately issue edicts to their company staff to take the cheaper route.

This might well happen with fare manipulation over JFK where the BA/AA frequency is such that there is constant pressure to fill seats and success between MAN and any eastern seaboard gateway works to the detriment of the Heathrow service, and we all know BA has no interest in MAN.
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Old 8th Apr 2014, 04:46
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Fair deal frank, you are right, London does provide airlines with the bulk of premium fare passengers but let's analyse why.

1. Historically the BOAC/BEA/BA monopoly as government run airlines badly skewed the way people travelled by only offering a few direct long haul and a slightly greater number of medium haul services from provincial airports whilst, by means of pool arrangements and bitterly opposing development of routes by other airlines, they stymied route development which would have occurred naturally. Thus it became accepted that, with few exceptions, one HAD to fly over London. Nowadays people are looking to their local airports or Amsterdam, Paris, Frankfurt and even Dubai to avoid London.

2. There is has been a very definite skew to marketing the UK by various agencies over the decades to bring people in by London then, in the case of tourists, send them round the milk run (London, Oxford, Stratford, Edinburgh, York and back to London). In the years I sat on various boards and agencies trying to bat for Manchester I, along with the likes of Birmingham, Glasgow etc., was banging my head against a brick wall. Visits in the 1980s to BTA offices abroad found literature on other areas of the UK away from the milk run gathering dust, unopened, in storerooms and reporting the facts back to BTA HQ was pointless. Again this has changed but the air links to cater for the change in tourism have not kept up and people are funnelled through London regardless.

3. There is still an attitude in airlines that people who travel on business are, in the main, based in the Home Counties. Again, the figures belie this. The problem is that implant and other travel agencies are pressured by big discounts to fly people from the provinces over London because seats on services that have been influenced to serve London by decades of the implementation of items one and two have to be filled.

The creaking infrastructure of airports in the South East and the poor service in terms of direct flights from the rest of the UK is regularly put down to potentially poor premium passenger loads from provincial airports. Not every provincial airport on a small island could offer the sort of loads any given route would need but a more balanced air transport policy over the years, with two or three provincial airports being allowed a bigger share of the cake, would not have the UK in the situation it is now in where, once again, London HAS to have more runways whilst there is capacity and potential elsewhere if only nearly seventy years of London centric thinking could be turned around,
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Old 8th Apr 2014, 07:48
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Still quoted by some is the myth that MAN can't support Premium pax. I can only speak from my experience in using Business class on EK, QR,DL, LX & LH. When I have been on them,they have always been full. Frequently the J class fares ex MAN have been higher than LHR. Sure I can't quote actual yield but all those carriers are commited to Manchester for a reason.
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Old 8th Apr 2014, 09:53
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Still quoted by some is the myth that MAN can't support Premium pax. I can only speak from my experience in using Business class on EK, QR,DL, LX & LH. When I have been on them,they have always been full. Frequently the J class fares ex MAN have been higher than LHR. Sure I can't quote actual yield but all those carriers are committed to Manchester for a reason.
As I and other have said Manchester major problem preventing it crossing the rubicon lies in not having benefit of a resident network/legacy carrier.

The question remains Why it that ?

Where is the Northern entrepreneur able to identify that demand and convert it into a viable long term business ?

One things for sure a few having moved south have found all that is shiny isn't necessarily gold !

There are remarkable few airports anywhere that handle 20+ million pa without a single major resident player - That is a conundrum in itself.
The only other EU airport comparable might well be Palma !

And sure Manchester has known abilities to create premium demand and drive cargo as well.

Hey much of the valuable cargo demand is outbound unlike London and that being real economic benefit to UK PLC !

Still we continue to see railway line economics rule and a magnitude more service between LON-NYC than many a local bus service !
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