MANCHESTER - 9

[spannersatcx]

Don't worry I'm in the loop

You know CX is a very astute airline and will feed tit bits to test the water and see what the reactions are, like 'things being in the system' then suddenly not being there!

[LAX_LHR]

So if you are in the loop then whats your opinion of the CEO's comments?

Its nothing personal but for obvious reasons i hope this is the one and only time you can be proven wrong. I know that sounds harsh but CX is long overdue at MAN and there just seems to be far too much info from completely seperate sources to just be your standard run of the mill rumour?

[Bagso]

"If we do not add more capacity in the South East we will lose traffic to AMS, CDG etc".

Davies Commission

All these airlines opening up services to MAN are clearly deluding themselves ........

re Gil Thompson I appreciate the younger viewers probably deride the Old Gits who frequent this column but via history, comparisons have to be made, back in the 80s 90s, we had somebody shouting our corner, manipulating the media ,and kicking at the door of London Centricism and the Department of Transport, today that is matched by .....................................silence.

Manchester Airport is a vehicle to make money, it executes that very well, but what has been lost is a tool of Mancunian pride !

MAG was self congratulatory re STN but hang on, should they not save a Guinness or two for the real work horse !

Occasionally this pride rears its head with HS2, as MPs join the gravy train to pronounce what a magnificent project this is, they all clamber over their shoulders to see what everybody else is saying/doing !

BUT Manchester Airport is the here and NOW, not some fantasy project that will cost £Trillions !

There "appears" to be a momentum led by the airlines to look NORTH, with Davies due to report next year can somebody please grasp the nettle or Davies by the throat and suggest that if he looked at the evidence there are "also" options outside the M25 !

"up here chaps ...wave everybody, yes that's us North of Watford"

[MANFOD]

Spanners, when you say "test the water and see what the reactions are", are you suggesting MAN may be being used as a pawn to get those cherished extra slots at LHR? I hope that is not the case but nothing would surprise me nowadays in aviation.

[Skipness One Echo]

All these airlines opening up services to MAN are clearly deluding themselves ........

Soap box again?
Alliance mechanics mean exactly that, LHR (BA) competes with EK (DXB), EY (AUH), AMS(KL), CDG(AF) and FRA(LH) as gateways to the world, large intercontinental hubs with fortress legacies as members of one alliance or government backed arm of the state.

Look at Cathay, Heathrow is a gold mine for them ( in their top 3 I believe?), feeding MAN-LHR-HKG keeps that profit margin high, although I argue we're well beyond where MAN deserves it's own metal. There's a national interest in expanding our one and only hub airport, it baffles me how people are so blind to what the businesses they depend on are asking for. You must understand that however much Emirates supports MAN, they run five A380s through LHR and would like more! Let's not rob Peter to pay Paul please?

[Fairdealfrank]

On the flight details that appeared temporarily in GDS, I would have thought CX 294 would be the outbound flight from MAN and CX 295 the inbound. Aren't the odd numbers the arrivals into LHR or is it not consistent in Europe?

It's a matter for the carrier AFAIK, the difference is usually dependent on whether travel is to the carrier's hub airport or from it.

"If we do not add more capacity in the South East we will lose traffic to AMS, CDG etc".

Already happening, with KL leading the field feeding its Schiphol hub from more than twice as many UK airports as BA is feeding its Heathrow hub.

There "appears" to be a momentum led by the airlines to look NORTH, with Davies due to report next year can somebody please grasp the nettle or Davies by the throat and suggest that if he looked at the evidence there are "also" options outside the M25 !

No matter how it's dressed up, the Davies Commission is effectively tasked to deal with the capacity crunch at Heathrow.

It is not the role of the Commission to make the business case for long haul flights to/from Ringway. That's for the Manchester business communities, local governments, and others to do. If there is a case to make, and there almost certainly is, this means flights to Ringway for its own sake, not as a Heathrow substitute.

As for Davies, the only realistic option "outside the M25" is to have Heathrow extended enough to fit in 2 more parallel rwys.

"up here chaps ...wave everybody, yes that's us North of Watford"

Think that should be "North of Watford GAP", the M1 services that is the traditional changeover from South to Midlands, not Watford, Herts.

That would be silly considering that three of the many "London" airports are north of Watford: Luton, Oxford and Stansted.

[philbky]

North of Watford or North of Watford Gap?

The original expression was North of Watford. Sometime in the 1970s this became transformed into North of Watford Gap, as the southern commuter belt expanded northwards. The change is as irritating to some of us old codgers as the oft quoted, by so called educated media types, Robin Reliant!

[Mr A Tis]

CX v the rest

I travel business class MAN-HKG & usually pay about £2,000 give or take the odd hundred, using either Swiss, Lufthansa, Qatar or Emirates. (With EK in terms of service & facilities being the best & LH best in terms of speed of journey).
However if CX were to return to MAN the time saving would be great, but the cheapest J class fares would be about £3,400.
I'm not sure how many canny Northerners would pay a 70% premium to go non stop.
It may be more cost effective in economy & of course the 777 would have great cargo capacity to help make it pay.

[North West]

Manchester has, in the nearly sixty years I've been following its fortunes, suffered from many problems, not least the blocking of routes by the national airlines from the 1950s through the late 1980s, government disinterest in anything north of Watford and nimbyism in the immediate area from people opposed to development who deliberately moved close to an established airport, use it regularly, but complain about noise and pollution.

The last thing it needs on top is a laissez faire approach to marketing and the development of services.

Except of course traffic is growing and deals have been struck with airlines like Ryanair, Easy, Jet2 to name but a few with frameworks to support further growth (subject of course to the prevailing economic circumstances). That's hardly 'laissez faire'.

I think too many of here are slightly obsessed with "direct long-haul" services as if this is the be all and end all of the airport. Personally I don't think it ever has been and I can't see any scenario, even in the medium term, where it would be.

All of the demographic analysis on MAN and data on why people are travelling through the airport makes it very clear that it is a bigger version of UK regional airports like BHX and very different indeed to LHR. So the scale of MAN, because it effectively serves a larger number of urban centres, gives it an advantage - i.e. more MEB3 services than BHX or GLA for example. This scale will allow it to open up some niche opportunities like Saudi or HK for example and the airport team have a good idea what these opportunities are. They are realists too and chasing lost causes that will only ever deliver low volume and revenue even if they came off is not what you'd expect them to do.

[LAX_LHR]

I think too many of here are slightly obsessed with "direct long-haul" services as if this is the be all and end all of the airport. Personally I don't think it ever has been and I can't see any scenario, even in the medium term, where it would be.

I think 'obsession' is a little harsh. Most talk on these boards regarding long haul comes on the back of rumours, or, the odd one or 2 routes that we think *could* be served, such as Beijing.

The latest talk on here regarding has been about Cathay Pacific who are rumoured from several very good sources to be launching MAN flights, which rightly allows us to get excited as its got the potential to be a good route and finally gets a scheduled link to China into the regions.

Ive certainly seen little talk that it is the 'be all and end all', but, when we are in the rather blessed position whereby nearly all the major capitals and cities of Europe are served from MAN that are realistically going to be served, then why not set aspirations for long haul (personally the only realistic links missing are Bucharest, St. Petersburg, Stuttgart, Lyon (summer), Marseille and Oporto, with routes underserved being Madrid and Vienna).

At least its realistic long haul, and not Brazil, Peru and Timbuktoo we expect

[philbky]

The deals with the LoCos are a belated reactive acceptance of the facts of life. Manchester did not want the likes of Ryanair etc. and only became a LoCo airport after a volte face when it was not only losing market share to Liverpool, Leeds and even Blackpool, but due to economic factors and 9/11 was losing long haul as well.

There is no obsession with long haul direct services. Any business that is going to survive and expand must constantly be on the lookout for new opportunities to serve its market. In terms of its catchment area and the businesses it serves, long haul services must be the growth area for Manchester and aggressive marketing both ways, to the airlines who can provide the services and the businesses which will provide the passengers and freight should be the most important area of marketing. It should also be aggressive in its defence of its existing business. The links that have been lost over the last decade and a half would, in terms of both business and prestige, have been a series of major set backs to most businesses.

Unfortunately MAG seems to have lost its focus with regard to Manchester, becoming more interested in everything from Stansted to building a business park and everything in between. From a shareholder's and accountants's point of view this makes great sense. From the point of view of the potential passenger, it makes much less.

In effect the LoCo phenomenon and the complete change of heart, under duress, has been a life saver for Manchester as, if the LoCos went tomorrow, what would be left?

The seemingly constant focus on China and Hong Kong makes a great deal of sense but seems to dominate to the exclusion of other markets and has not yet provide one bookable seat.

The days when Manchester Airport was an entity to serve Manchester and its hinterland first and foremost are long gone. I'm not convinced that today's mega operation offers any advance in route development terms on what pertained under Gordon Sweetapple who had a very limited marketing budget and massive constraints imposed by government.

[pwalhx]

The constant focus on China appears not to have hindered new routes to Charlotte, Toronto and Jeddah, which if my geography serves me right are not in China

[rutankrd]

Dusseldorf and Lufthansa Group

Noticed this evening the Dusseldorf flight is operated by Lufthansa Cityline Canadair 700 rather than usual Eurowings 900.

Is this regular or a one off ?

Ask because it's a capacity cut compounded by reduced frequency !

And thought those 700s were planned to leave the group soon

[easyflyer83]

I think what North West means is that some (not all) on boards like this obsess over long haul legacy and sometimes overlook or underestimate the benefit the loco's are bringing to MAN. Sure, there's not as much glamour in the ALC's and your PMI's (though the loco's do operate many city's too) but they are MAN's bread and butter and they do account for a large proportion of the airports passengers.

That said, MAN has always done extremely well in attracting long haul routes and long may that continue. We mustn't forget however that whilst having US To Charlotte is great and will add to MAN's success, the impact is modest compared to a based aircraft from one of the loco's. The way some contributors talk, you wouldn't think that.

[Skipness One Echo]

Also over time the long haul program settles down, Delta has gone back to only Atlanta and American is unlikely to serve JFK/ORD/PHL/CLT in 2015 I suspect.

[eggc]

Led to believe SV are seeing excellent loads, with an upgrade to a 773 this morning, other future flights fully booked, and more 773's planned. Not surprising to hear rumours of a daily service from next year.

[philbky]

You need to explain the logic of your suspicions Skipness.

[LAX_LHR]

American is unlikely to serve JFK/ORD/PHL/CLT in 2015 I suspect

On the contrary.

PHL will stay A332 due to cargo alone.

JFK will stay as good connection bank down the eastern seaboard with good O&D to New York (AA210/211 had average load factor of 92% in summer with a fair few days booked out).

CLT will stay due to good connections to the mid west states, and strongly hinted it will rotate with MIA in the winter/CLT in the summer.

ORD will stay as it has some O&D as well as strong connections to the west coast. Again a good performer, with the fact it has run continuously for over 25 years and one of just 4 winter ORD-Europe routes a testament to this.

[Skipness One Echo]

You know this for a fact or is this your opinion? Not much point in merging if there's no synergies! Come on guys, when you're not fighting the other guy for his premium fliers and market share you move the aircraft to maximise yield which means American will be asking "Do we need all four hubs serving or is there duplication?" Also given the B757s are going with no replacement, anything which won't fill a B763 gets what exactly?

Given MAN-CLT has zero track record and you're not on the board of American, let's not be counting chickens yet. Aircraft will be used to maximum effect to compliment each other, not compete as the current set up does. Something is likely to give, Delta right sized, Continental / United swapped a EWR for a IAD (yet went three daily at EDI), no one knows what the post merger American will do at MAN, but on past experience, expect some consolidation.

Forgive me if I mention the emporer's lack of clothes.

[LAX_LHR]

You know this for a fact or is this your opinion?

CLT as you say is unproven yet, but, lets give it a chance before we write it off. .

Ive seen the figures for JFK/ORD and they are very positive. I have not seen PHL but what I do know is that cargo is a very big money earner on this route, hence why it sees the A330 versus a B757 or 2.

Not much point in merging if there's no synergies! Come on guys, when you're not fighting the other guy for his premium fliers and market share you move the aircraft to maximise yield which means American will be asking "Do we need all four hubs serving or is there duplication?"

You mention this, but then:

Continental / United swapped a EWR for a IAD

How do you know the new AA is not 'spreading its bets' in the same way. UA did this to free up slots at 1 airport. If the passenger demand and yield is there, why clog up 1 hub with 4 flights, instead of running to various hubs, where they could be the right number of crews, aircraft etc.
JFK/PHL are the only 2 hubs where there is a realistic chance over overlapping, with ORD/CLT being in their own areas. JFK is notorious for its delays, so the PHL flights are the perfect way of relieving pressure.

Yes, time could go on and 4 hubs is too much, but how about we let AA decide what is too much, hey?

Judging by past comments, MAN has surprised you before, particularly regarding the middle easterns, and wondering if its getting all too much. Yet, just this year Etihad is again almost doubling capacity, Saudia seems to be filling out its flights (even having to put on a B77W and still not enough seats) and the Emirates flights going out quite full in all 3 classes.
What is to say MAN will not surprise you again?