BMI REGIONAL-2

[EK77WNCL]

Thanks crewmeal, I tried my best.

SWBKCB, GrahamK, Dude~. Sorry about that, I messed up I was thinking £200 per passenger, so the calculations are probably a bit messed up after that, so then you'd have to add £200 per extra pax carried, but then with the new info you have given me regarding shortcuts etc, it's probably still 15-20 ish passengers to break even, no?

Dude~, as I said, I was sceptical about the figures I had, the website didn't seem the most professional but it had some numbers, so I used them.

[planenut321]

The Roskam method is usually a good way to calculate the COC and DOCs for a flight. Slightly out of date, but if you use good judgement for figures you normally get a realistic answer. Sure I have an excel spreadsheet somewhere...

[Dude~]

EK77WNCL, no need to apologise, I like data and you were on the right lines, just trying to offer some accurate figures to help. PM me if you want more data or info! At a guess I'd like to think you're in the right ballpark with your 15-20 break even load.

planenut321, what's this Roskam Method? I've never heard of it and google doesn't help.

[planenut321]

Jan Roskam was an American Aerospace Engineer. The Roskam method can be seen in the 8th book in his series on airplane design: Airplane Cost Estimation: Design, Development, Manufacturing and Operating. It is a very good and lengthy series if you ever want to do preliminary aircraft design (did it for various University projects) albeit, as I said earlier, it being slightly out dated. His method considers various things from crew costs, fuel charges, aircraft cost, engine cost, TAT cost, en-route costs etc. The result is the total cost for a particular sector, which can then be translated into cost per seat per mile, or whatever unit you fancy. If anyone wants more detail you can send me a PM.

Back to bmi regional (or however it is stylised)....

[EK77WNCL]

Thanks a lot guys, I hope I am right too and I wish BM lots of luck, NCL being my local and all. Here's hoping for a new base.

[FLYAIR10]

ROSKAM method

Hi EK77WNCL,
Nice exercise. Below link gives some more info on Operating cost calculation,including Roskam method.

http://epats.eu/Files/Deliverables/E...nal%20V2.5.pdf

I'm not in te Airline industry myself,but it seems to be clarifying literature.
Grtz

[HH6702]

NCL

Good luck to them they will need it!


I think that the route is a year too late. When flybe used to do the route for SN before pulling out to edb they should have taken over it then. Monthly loading were around 4,500!!

They now need to build that up from ZERO and the cost of setting up etc!
They are talking of more routes from NCL too..

I think the management need to think long term!
They seem to have taken over an airline open all these new routes from bhx,brs,edb and then a year on they aren't working and the pull the routes

I think this airline needs to reduce in size and routes and make a profit then build on it.

Take a look at eastern no new routes for years but they have the right aircraft and routes to make a profit. They don't take risks in today's world!!

[EI-BUD]

The way things are going at bmi regional are to say the least very sad. The airline has it stacked against them on many levels.

• High costs associated with regional jets. The average fares needed to make the flying programme are prohibitive.
• To sustain these costs they need some high volume routes with steady income flows to keep cash flow in the right state
• Possibly the biggest challenge in my view is the lack of brand recognition, how do they communicate with their audience? They need a very effective marketing department. This is huge challenge for all smaller airlines, and airlines like EZY, FR etc who are experiencing success get much better value from marketing spend. Again my second point, some high frequency routes might make sense in terms of marketing and value for marketing spend. Next to impossible to market a low frequency route from EU to UK.
• The level of staffing mentioned earlier sounds huge in relation to the size of the flying programme.

The airline needs to develop a strategy, and from my perspective, it must be working as a feeder airline under another carriers branding, e.g. Aer Lingus Regional/ Aer Arann, a franchise arrangement or doing wet lease arrangements. Otherwise, I am not confident of the future.

A lot relates to the future position of Flybe, a weakening BE may create opportunities, but time may not be on their side.

EI-BUD

[SWBKCB]

NCL-BRU

Don't forget that BRU had been dropped previously by SN and then re-instated. I know a number of people who having tried the alternatives and can't wait to get the route back (although I'm not advocating "treat 'em mean, keep 'em keen" as an airline route development strategy).

Also re marketing, I would imagine that they are aiming at very specific market sectors where the cost of time is high or the alternatives aren't attractive rather than the general public, so probably don't need the level of market awareness of the EZY/RYR.

[EK77WNCL]

Relating specifically to NCL, I think that there are some routes that BM operate which would slot in quite nicely at NCL, and with the correct amount of advertising definitely have potential, although I think that some would need codeshares to have any hope of working. But something was mentioned earlier saying that codeshares often don't work because the larger airline gets the biggest percentage cut of the money, rather than BM being paid for each booking, or is that specifically related to an alliance context? I think that re-joining Star would kill off Bmi for good. Thank God there is no talk of it.

But some of the routes I think have potential from Newcastle are:

-Oslo, a route I think NCL has been missing for quite a while, of course Ryanair have failed twice but you cant really say they actually flew to Oslo, apart from the fact the airports had "Oslo" written on them. Would probably need SK/WF codeshare.

-Milan, although I think they would stand in better stead to operate from Linate for business passengers, but I understand it is quite expensive.

-Norwich, I don't know personally but it was mentioned on the Newcastle thread that it is ranked number 1 on some list saying that there is demand for a service from NCL. MAN is 2nd but I think that's too much of a risk for BM, what do you think?

If they build up the "critical mass" they need, and set up a proper crew base and everything I think that Esbjerg, Kristiansand and Lyons could maybe work. NCL-Scandinavia always used to be a big market I am led to believe. Bergen would be nice but BM don't fly there.

The above is being extremely optimistic by the way. I'd like to see them work, but have my doubts. Quite a lot of them.

[Skipness One Echo]

Newcastle does not have enough business travellers on expenses to niche destinations to support this sort of operation. It's a business model from ye olden times that only Eastern clings to. Without STAR Alliance membership any standalone flight into a STAR hub will struggle, they can't even keep GLA-CPH running, a monopoly route SAS flew for decades before gifting to Midland when they retired the DC9s.

[LN-KGL]

EK77WNCL:
Oslo, a route I think NCL has been missing for quite a while, of course Ryanair have failed twice but you cant really say they actually flew to Oslo, apart from the fact the airports had "Oslo" written on them. Would probably need SK/WF codeshare.

Well, a connection between Oslo's main airport has been missing since Oslo, Fornebu closed down in October 1998. Braathens SAFE was the last operator in 1998. After OSL opened the NCL flight was moved to SVG and it was flown by Norwegian Air Shuttle with their Fokker 50s. This was before Norwegian Air Shuttle started 737 operation and Braathens was merged with SAS. Before Braathens SAFE it was Dan-Air that flew between Oslo (FBU) and NCL. This started in 1985 with routing MAN-NCL-FBU and was flown with their BAC One-Elevens. Dan-Air also flew NCL-SVG-BGO with BAe 146 at that time.

These days it's only four weekly flights between Norway and Newcastle (Wideroe from SVG) and around 2,000 passengers per month. I can't say anything other than BMI regional will not find a treasure chest here.

[SWBKCB]

Didn't one of the BA regional operators do NCL to Oslo with the EMB-145?

[Jamesair]

Braathens operated it daily a few years ago.

[LN-KGL]

It's a bit more than a few years ago Jamesair. All direct flights between NCL and OSL was closed down sometime in 2001 according to CAA (after 9/11?). I don't know which airline flew this route at that time. In 1998 there were 91,785 passengers between Newcastle and Norway and in 2012 the same number was 33,191 - in other words 36% of what it was 14 years earlier.

Scheduled direct flights from the following Norwegian airports to Newcastle:
1998: BGO, OSL and SVG
1998-2001: OSL and SVG
2001-2005: SVG
2005-2007: BGO, SVG and TRF (Ryanair)
2007-2010: BGO and SVG
2010-2011: BGO, RYG (Ryanair) and SVG
2011-present: SVG

Braathens ceased to exist with SAS taking them over in 2002, but the aircraft stayed on under the Braathens logo until the full merger with SAS took effect on 1 March 2005 (all Norwegian SAS operation was then renamed to SAS Braathens in spring 2004 and that included also the Braathens aircraft).

[EK77WNCL]

And why are there less passengers now??? Because the routes aren't there. As far as I know, 60,000 people haven't stopped going to Norway. Well, maybe they have, but that may only be because there is no way to get there, and they don't want to go to Stavanger.

Do you know if passenger numbers went up in 2005-2007, 2007-2010 and 2010-2011 when more flights were available? Or if you have the data for all the years to analyse the trends that would be great. Or if you could direct me where to find the info myself

Thank you

[Skipness One Echo]

And why are there less passengers now??? Because the routes aren't there

I know you're only fifteen but if it were that simple any old numpty could run an airline. There are less passengers because the route was withdrawn and no one felt it worthwhile to pick up. If you think there's a gap in the market that no one else has seen and it's really that simple then you need to form an airline. Consider, Scotland is also losing it's GLA/EDI-CPH service, a route SAS flew for decades before handing over to Midland. bmi Regional are closing it, as the market just won't support it anymore. Travel patterns change, Birmingham used to have an extensive European network supported by BA, that's all gone now and not all routes were taken up by others.

[davidjohnson6]

you need to form an airline

EK777 - don't take Skipness *too* literally.

[EK77WNCL]

Nah, pilot'll do for me thanks :P as the famous saying goes:

"How do you become a millionaire"
"Start off a trillionaire and start up an airline"
- Sir Richard Branson

But yeah I see what you mean about market trends, but if SAS increased their presence could there not be hope, this critical mass thingy? Or Norwegian Air Shuttle even? Thinking along the lines of CPH, OSL, ARN and maybe HEL in the case of NAX. No? Maybe? Hopefully...

Edit: Might as well squeeze in another quote while I'm at it

"Build it and they will come"
- Dubai

[Skipness One Echo]

"Build it and they will come"
- Dubai

Or closer to home and way more relevant :
Sheffield
Doncaster-Sheffield
Newquay
Durham Tees-Valley etc
Unless you have a market willing to pay a commercial return, they don't come, they really don't.

EK777 - don't take Skipness *too* literally.

Good advice, I'm not really a SID, if I was then you'd need to take me literally, however the Skipness 1E departure was abolished decades ago!