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Monarch - 3

Old 11th Aug 2017, 20:10
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I see trouble ahead, and not just for Monarch. I sense there will be little growth, at best, over the next year or two.
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Old 11th Aug 2017, 21:02
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Originally Posted by 01475
Those aren't really awful numbers in a sense (though they do make you wonder if they really should be changing to 737s at this particular point in time), but they do point to a potential problem in the future.

In the future they need to find something for 11ish extra aircraft to do at a time when it looks a bit like they could be better making sure they have stuff to keep the 34ish they have busy. They need to make sure they avoid any more unnecessary bad publicity before they try to embark on that expansion!!!

Most worrying though is that this is the airline when fuel prices are low. When the increased full prices screw turns, airlines like this, ...
Those results are awful. Monarch are barely treading water at the minute and committed to an expensive fleet renewal.

The competition have moved to a different level and MON still struggling to shake off the shackles of the past.

I hope whoever made this Boeing call got their sums right.
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Old 11th Aug 2017, 21:34
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Does seem rather bizzare given the current situation they are in .

Surely replacing what is still a fairly modern fleet would be a nice to have rather than a essential
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Old 11th Aug 2017, 22:38
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Totally agree the 737 order makes no sense in the current situation, and if the airline can't cancel the order, they should urgently consider delaying the arrival of the new type until a plan to reverse the airlines current situation...

I can't believe the current Airbuses are that uneconomical.

Jet2 can't be helping the situation either, opening a large new base in Birmingham and growing ops at Leeds/Bradford and Manchester. Then there is the new London base at Stansted, which much be eating some what into their routes from Luton and Gatwick. Especially when both airlines are trying to chase the same sort of customers and both like to sell their own packages too.

Monarch seems to be very heavily reliant on the UK traveller to fill their planes unlike other LCC's, which operate Europe-wide. The dire Euro-rates is doing no favours, but the other airlines can absorb this, with all the Europeans coming to the UK to take advantage, as prices are cheaper for them.

Also what are with the odd-ball routes like Tel-Aviv, Stockholm and Zagreb they are flying?! These are total opposites to the beach holiday markets they operate. Tel Aviv from Luton, must be a blood bath route, easyJet, EL-AL and Wizzair are all operating the route too!

I wonder how much of the £165 million cash injection from last year, remains in the bank?

Quote from TTG:
The group has employed a group of consultants to “help with this assessment”.
Could that be the Greybull big wigs visiting, and having stern words?!
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 05:46
  #4185 (permalink)  
 
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I actually think there is value in Monarch and that's not lost on Greybull. The engineering arm is apparently in a good place, for the airline their LGW slots and the MAX deliveries have to be of interest to Norwegian in particular but there are others that will also want a bigger slice of the LGW pie. The LTN slots may also have some nominal value. I'd love to see them Monarch stick around and grow though.
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 05:50
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What about the quote:

plus a further £198 million provision for “onerous aircraft leasing contracts”.
One of the reasons for getting rid of the Airbuses?
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 06:24
  #4187 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1
I actually think there is value in Monarch and that's not lost on Greybull. The engineering arm is apparently in a good place, for the airline their LGW slots and the MAX deliveries have to be of interest to Norwegian in particular but there are others that will also want a bigger slice of the LGW pie. The LTN slots may also have some nominal value. I'd love to see them Monarch stick around and grow though.
May well be of interest to Norwegian but they have enough of their own problems at the minute.
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 06:48
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From what I understand, they have looked lagerlout...
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 09:12
  #4189 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AirportPlanner1
I actually think there is value in Monarch and that's not lost on Greybull. The engineering arm is apparently in a good place, for the airline their LGW slots and the MAX deliveries have to be of interest to Norwegian in particular but there are others that will also want a bigger slice of the LGW pie. The LTN slots may also have some nominal value. I'd love to see them Monarch stick around and grow though.
I think i'm right in saying monarch engineering look after Norwegian aircraft at various airports...
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 09:17
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I suspect the accounting adjustment for the Airbuses wouldn't have been needed if they weren't getting rid of them before the end of the contracts.
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 09:34
  #4191 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by lagerlout
May well be of interest to Norwegian but they have enough of their own problems at the minute.
What are these DY/D8 problems you talk of...?
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 09:40
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I believe the MAX deal was tied into some direly needed funds - which came via Boeing. So Monarch are wedded to the marriage with the MAX. They say to marry once for money...

Of course operationally the Airbus fleet isn't old, is pretty fuel and maintenance efficient. What we don't know is what the lease terms are like - I suspect there is a whiff of the type of thing that dragged bmi down once it was separated from its original owner. The group had various associated leasing companies from which aircraft were leased to the operating airline at rates which were not necessarily representative of the market. This seems a sensible (if not terribly ethical) way to move profits around and works as long as the group remains intact. Once separated off the money becomes "real" and the obvious problems start.
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 09:40
  #4193 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by gilesdavies
Also what are with the odd-ball routes like Tel-Aviv, Stockholm and Zagreb they are flying?! These are total opposites to the beach holiday markets they operate.
Ever considered the fact that operating only to the beach holiday market was what got them into trouble in the first place? Perhaps diversifying a bit and moving into city break territory is just what the doctor ordered.

Just look at their operation at BHX; they've picked up a bunch of cities that were unserved - Lisbon, Porto, Stockholm, Valencia which seem to be working well. Together with the likes of Barcelona, Madrid, Nice, Naples, Rome, Venice and the usual Alicante, Malaga etc you've got a network that is increasingly mirroring what EasyJet have been doing at other airports across the UK.

Zagreb is apparently going to be offered from BHX next year.
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 10:27
  #4194 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by VickersVicount
What are these DY/D8 problems you talk of...?
Fairly well documented. Delivery of leased aircraft they can't fly but costing them lots of money sat around. Massive expansion of long haul flying, cancellations due lack of crew. Could say growing pains I guess?
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 11:07
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More like bad planning.
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 19:53
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01475

I can assure you they are not returning any of the Airbuses early.
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 20:07
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I hope people won't mind my asking but putting it directly, why do Brits need Monarch and what is its target market ? I know this is a major strategy question but the answer escapes me.
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 20:10
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David - I would ask the same question... The slightly obscure city routes are confusing, compared to their more established sun routes (albeit being challenged on - Spain/Portugal).

Last edited by toledoashley; 12th Aug 2017 at 20:24.
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Old 12th Aug 2017, 23:22
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Choice and competition is the only thing they offer. There appears no real USP with Monarch, they offer the same routes from the same airports. There also seems to be a hangover from the charter days which places the airline in the locations it currently operates from, and again offering the same routes.
Brits just need/want options, reality is we don't 'need' anything more than is currently available at the larger airports all within two hours of most of the UK population.
If an airline can offer a little more convienience and competitive cost then the seats are there for the taking.
If Monarch had chosen DSA over LBA a few years ago the story might be different...at least in the Yorkshire region. Flybe have since taken the popular routes. Would this have been enough to change Monarch's fortunes? Maybe not, people will pay a small premium for convienience but a significant difference in price would see people travelling an hour North or South for the cheaper fares - they've probably secured the market rate bookings at LBA.
Me personally, not used Monarch for 6 years, they are always more expensive than FR/LS and at the end of the day it's just a ride from A-B.
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Old 13th Aug 2017, 09:27
  #4200 (permalink)  
 
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Monarch

G-FORZ

In general you might be right but not the case at BHX, Monarch offer 17 destinations as a schedule operation not offered by any other airline (soon to be 15) and 8 of those are not served in any form at all although all but three of the 8 can be reached from the Midlands via EMA.

However they do a good job for BHX with EasyJet not interested, Ryanair very cautious and Flybe don't have the right equipment for some of these routes or the right cost-base by the look of it.

I used them recently to Preveza (Parga) which was a destination I wanted to visit for years but I was not prepared to travel north or south for the family holiday although I have used Gatwick this year (BGI) and will be using Heathrow soon (Avios) but in this case it was Monarch that provided the service I wanted. Coincidentally Flybe now also have a charter a few minutes after the ZB flight but for a specialised IT operator with eye-watering prices.

I do understand your point about from Manchester and Gatwick but for BHX they do fill a gap in the market where others have failed or are not interested.

The product was excellent, flights, crew (all but one newbie on the way out), extra leg-room although I chose standard seats on the way out which were fabric and the leg-room was non-existent and that was a negative.

Even got an airbridge at BHX which was attached in seconds (yes thumbs up Swissport) on a busy Sunday afternoon and as I was in row 5, I was off in minutes and bags were only 30-35 minutes.

It is difficult to compare with other airlines as I have either used Thomson (short-haul holidays) or long-haul scheduled recently but miles better than my last experience with Ryanair although to be fair that was a long time ago before allocated seating so hardly an up to date comparison.

BHX seems to be unlucky with two of their local airlines experiencing difficulties with aircraft on expensive leases (ZB Airbus & Flybe Embraer).


NB. Booked with Monarch Holidays but my Credit Card shows Cosmos

Last edited by OltonPete; 13th Aug 2017 at 09:40.
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