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Monarch - 3

Old 12th Oct 2016, 11:53
  #3861 (permalink)  
 
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Giles, I hear what you're saying although the CAA must be sufficiently satisfied.

Greybull putting 160 million is possibly just a headline, i.e. has that money moved today?

It being a private company, we won't find out until later, but I wouldn't lend them money until it came to flying time.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 12:00
  #3862 (permalink)  
 
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This has to be good news for MON and all who work for 'her'. I wish them well of course.
However, 165M is not a huge sum given the rise in fuel price (hedging - dunno) and, possibly of more relevance given that most of the revenue is surely paid in , the fall in the v the USD (fuel, lease costs, spares etc) and the € (charges in Europe). Winter losses are coming to us all and I also fear for forward bookings.
My fingers are firmly crossed for this 'proper' airline.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 12:04
  #3863 (permalink)  
 
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I suspect ATNotts there was more than one on here relishing the thought of the airline going under and the consequent hardship for many people .

Great to see their hopes confounded , Good luck to monarch.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 12:12
  #3864 (permalink)  
 
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I am certain this 165 million in addition to the deal with Boeing will create more than enough "cash reserves" to ride out the winter and next season and beyond until a sale is agreed (if it hasn't been agreed already!).
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 12:35
  #3865 (permalink)  
 
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Their modus operandii is to buy poorly businesses, return them to health, and then sell them on at a profit (
There is no compelling reason for anyone to buy Monarch. Right there, is why Greybull are in two minds.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 12:39
  #3866 (permalink)  
 
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Skipness

Don't conflate your opinion with fact! Everyone can have an opinion but an informed opinion based on knowledge is what really counts!
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 12:57
  #3867 (permalink)  
 
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How is Monarch a superior product to anything else that's offered in the UK leisure market?

In fact come 11/01/17 you'll not know the fitter ends between BA/Ryanair/Jet2/easyJet/Monarch. The only difference being the paint jobs and the uniform.

I don't think any airline is at all remarkable in the UK leisure market.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 13:02
  #3868 (permalink)  
 
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Skipness

Don't conflate your opinion with fact! Everyone can have an opinion but an informed opinion based on knowledge is what really counts!
OK fair point.
What reason is there to buy MON balanced against watching it fail and picking up the pieces? The latter is a heart breaker but that's BMI Baby all over again. The brand is aligned with the others having gone "downmarket", there is no USP and the loyalty base isn't that loyal nowadays,
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 15:00
  #3869 (permalink)  
 
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I was expecting today's announcement to include the Chinese or even Boeing standing behind/alongside Monarch.

Airlines are like a bank, as the customer is lending (depositing) money to the airline in return for a flight in the future.

We know what happens to banks when confidence has gone.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 17:20
  #3870 (permalink)  
 
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"Great news ,HH and one or two others must be devastated ......"

Not so - read my posts for heavens sake.

My take is that this gives them a bit longer than the 6 months other's are guessing at - their previous burn rate on cash would suggest they should be OK for at least a year - maybe longer especially if they make some changes - especially on the lease/purchase front

And a year in the current BREXIT world is a lifetime TBH
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 20:47
  #3871 (permalink)  
 
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Nothing like the suspense of the news that Greybull who own Monarch are investing 165m of their own money in a company that they own?
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 21:08
  #3872 (permalink)  
 
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Not much information on whats happening to jobs ? Manchester hanger and was it 300 jobs recently gone i believe............
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 22:18
  #3873 (permalink)  
 
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Monarch: what was all that about? | The Independent
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 22:28
  #3874 (permalink)  
 
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Airlines are like a bank, as the customer is lending (depositing) money to the airline in return for a flight in the future.
If you believe this you don't know much about the way credit card companies operate.

My take is that this gives them a bit longer than the 6 months other's are guessing at - their previous burn rate on cash would suggest they should be OK for at least a year - maybe longer especially if they make some changes - especially on the lease/purchase front
This sort of comment makes no sense at all. You and others have absolutely no idea of "previous burn rate" as you only have (carefully crafted) press reports of what has been put in and absolutely no idea of what has been taken out - this company has been profitable (which nobody seems to be disputing) for the past two years and was profitable for 95% of its previous existence before late 2014 and since the late sixties under its previous owners. Previous cash injections (reported) and lots of dividends and loans repaid (not reported) makes for a pretty distorted picture to the outside world.

Everyone seems to think Greybull are shrewd, ruthless investors, so what are they doing investing (again) in a basket case then? Could it be that they have already seen a return on their initial investments in years 1 and 2?

The reality is that the cost base is the same or better than other locos since 2014 even without the benefits of the re-fleeting deal with Boeing, which will not bear fruit fully for a number of years. Yes, "Brexit" presents challenges with the weaker pound, but this applies to other UK carriers too who compete on similar routes with similar $ and Euro costs.

And as for "slashing fares" (Independent article cited above), I very much doubt that the various fares algorithms will change as it seems bookings are holding up well and better than this time last year and will always be mainly influenced by those of competitors and other market conditions.

Last edited by Rushed Approach; 12th Oct 2016 at 22:48.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 22:28
  #3875 (permalink)  
 
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I would agree with the parting shot Spottiludrop , There is certainly a lot of good will in the travel game towards them ...Best of luck guys

PS By all a accounts bookings are doing really well which is great news for them
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 22:58
  #3876 (permalink)  
 
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Something's fishy here IMHO. Why on earth did they wait until the very last minute damaging their own brand? I think there was a takeover offer (Chinese or other) which was withdrawn eventually hence the "investment" of Greybull to keep the show going on.
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Old 12th Oct 2016, 23:42
  #3877 (permalink)  
 
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Seems monarch are more interested in the whole buying loads of new planes instead of sticking with what they have and concentrating in sorting out the business....
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Old 13th Oct 2016, 06:34
  #3878 (permalink)  
 
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Me thinks that many spotters on here will be disappointed that they won't be seeing United 747's into other UK airports anytime soon.

Well done MON and good luck for the future!
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Old 13th Oct 2016, 06:40
  #3879 (permalink)  
 
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Half understand the protections of CC, paypall, and indeed ATOL, but if you've got the choice to book with an EZY vs Monarch, why would you bother with Monarch unless it's a lot cheaper?

Greybull know Monarch inside out, so the only reason I can think of that they didn't do this 3 weeks ago was because they were far from convinced.
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Old 13th Oct 2016, 06:49
  #3880 (permalink)  
 
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The only reason why things will be selling well will be due to deep discounting.

Monarch still have to survive the winter. Their costs have increased due to them all in the and it's been said that last year the profit made was only due to the fall in the price of fuel. Now if the price of oil actually goes up it could be a double whammy and it could still end in tears.

If anything it gives the good hard working people there a bit of time to look elsewhere for a job. TCX and EZY are recruiting as are BA and VS just closed. If I was there I wouldn't be seeing this as a my future being secured.

Last edited by HeartyMeatballs; 13th Oct 2016 at 07:41.
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