BELFAST AIRPORT INTERNATIONAL
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A320.b744,
Another great update on a very noteworthy topic!
All of the points you make some sense and you touch on what are the most tried and tested routes and those that would be high on the list of potential markets!
However, a couple of things about NI market. It tends to be seasonal to the extreme and while very attractive in June July and August the other months are less attractive. Most people want to travel across the peak July holidays, the 'July Fortnight'. This poses a problem in terms of capacity. Virgin serving during that peak time is testament to this seasonal factor at work.
Prague is a great destination and has also been served briefly by bmibaby...
Toronto - Air Canada Rouge is a step too far, this is a Westjet 737 market for sure and my sense would be that this the most attractive destination on the list, it has to be a low cost airline and a realistic size of aircraft.
Describing routes as 'viable' - take a BCN, it needs to be flown at peak times potentially at the cost of serving a strong route where the potential returns are better. Outside of attractive timings, the need to deliver low fares, on top of all the taxes etc. etc. the airline may on such flights only be getting a few £/€ per seat, couple that with low loads, and lets remember airlines have targets for load factor, in a low cost world it is usually north of 90%!!!
Airlines do have systems that allow them to get a view of where passengers are going, i.e. how many passengers boarded aircraft in Belfast City with BA / KL and were going to Vancouver etc. but NI's challenge is its proximity to Dublin and the volume of passengers who choose to fly from there. As a result of this, it is about finding an airline who is willing to take a risk on Belfast.....
EI-BUD
Another great update on a very noteworthy topic!
All of the points you make some sense and you touch on what are the most tried and tested routes and those that would be high on the list of potential markets!
However, a couple of things about NI market. It tends to be seasonal to the extreme and while very attractive in June July and August the other months are less attractive. Most people want to travel across the peak July holidays, the 'July Fortnight'. This poses a problem in terms of capacity. Virgin serving during that peak time is testament to this seasonal factor at work.
Prague is a great destination and has also been served briefly by bmibaby...
Toronto - Air Canada Rouge is a step too far, this is a Westjet 737 market for sure and my sense would be that this the most attractive destination on the list, it has to be a low cost airline and a realistic size of aircraft.
Describing routes as 'viable' - take a BCN, it needs to be flown at peak times potentially at the cost of serving a strong route where the potential returns are better. Outside of attractive timings, the need to deliver low fares, on top of all the taxes etc. etc. the airline may on such flights only be getting a few £/€ per seat, couple that with low loads, and lets remember airlines have targets for load factor, in a low cost world it is usually north of 90%!!!
Airlines do have systems that allow them to get a view of where passengers are going, i.e. how many passengers boarded aircraft in Belfast City with BA / KL and were going to Vancouver etc. but NI's challenge is its proximity to Dublin and the volume of passengers who choose to fly from there. As a result of this, it is about finding an airline who is willing to take a risk on Belfast.....
EI-BUD
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Prague is a busted flush. The traveling masses have been there now and in NI they don't class it as second visit material. Easy's Rome service was doomed as the 737 wasn't versatile enough to lift the load off CIA's limiting runway. The big surprise was EI's inability to do any better.
I'd agree on the Westjet front. I think that's the best we could hope for. I would likely be seasonal though.
I'd agree on the Westjet front. I think that's the best we could hope for. I would likely be seasonal though.
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Well given that Prague has flights to 14 UK destinations, I would hope that Ryanair would see the potential in starting Belfast flights. Thousands of NI tourists visit the city even without a direct service - I hear the NI accent quite often when I'm in the city centre, and even more so when there's a stag night on the loose!
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Why is everyone so sure Ryanair will continue to grow? They could easily pull most or all of the routes in a year! LGW may be somewhat safe all the others are going to be chopped and changed over the next few years imo if they return at all.
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I don't think that Ryanair will grow at an alarming rate, and they'll never serve 40-50 destinations like O'Leary suggested, but I don't think that it is unreasonable to say that Ryanair could serve 20 destinations from BFS. Undoubtedly, as is the norm with FR, some of the routes currently served will be axed - hopefully not BGY, SXF or WMI - but they will be replaced by new routes.
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There was a genuine reason for Ryanair to leave BHD, and quite frankly I'm surprised that FR has remained in LDY for so long. Clearly DUB is the most lucrative airport on the island, given the huge catchment area, but FR still operate 17 destinations from ORK and 15 from SNN. And even DUB has seen routes cut - even their mega hub STN has seen dozens of routes axed; that's just the way FR operate.
Only time will tell if they expand from BFS, but simple economics states that expanding services will reduce costs, and if they were to cancel all European flights from BFS, the LGW route would ultimately be cancelled as well.
Only time will tell if they expand from BFS, but simple economics states that expanding services will reduce costs, and if they were to cancel all European flights from BFS, the LGW route would ultimately be cancelled as well.
Ryanair play airports off each other, they have Cork, Kerry, Shannon and Knock by the proverbials and had Derry until recently, switching this and that between the lot depending on where the lowest charges are etc. I would argue this has restricted the number of routes actually on offer in these airports. Ryanair will run 9.99 fares all day long when they have a direct competitor on the route. As soon as said competitor backs down, the route invariably disappears altogether.
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The LGW route could well be a slot holder. If I'm not wrong after a certain amount of time elapses they can use the slots for any route?
Of course I'm only suggesting an alternative outcome here.
Of course I'm only suggesting an alternative outcome here.
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Oh I do, but good heavens some of the ****e being said here.
I'm not being negative, I'm being realistic. This Ryanair third aircraft that MOL promised hasn't arrived, surprise, I said it wouldn't months ago. Don't believe the promises of MOL, I should be flying from Shannon-Copenhagen tomorrow week as opposed to Dublin-Copenhagen. Mol reinvented publicity.
Delta makes no sense. It doesn't. Think realistically, with the way suggestions are coming on here it won't be long before BA are rumoured to be starting JFK!
I'm not being negative, I'm being realistic. This Ryanair third aircraft that MOL promised hasn't arrived, surprise, I said it wouldn't months ago. Don't believe the promises of MOL, I should be flying from Shannon-Copenhagen tomorrow week as opposed to Dublin-Copenhagen. Mol reinvented publicity.
Delta makes no sense. It doesn't. Think realistically, with the way suggestions are coming on here it won't be long before BA are rumoured to be starting JFK!
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Delta are starting flights to Glasgow, a mere 40 miles away from Edinburgh where they also fly to JFK. Clearly the vast majority of people what fit in Glasgow's sphere of influence also fit into Edinburgh's, but they've still decided to fly to both airports. Hence, I find it reasonable to assume that Delta would not ignore Belfast just because Dublin is relatively close by.
Yes United cancelled the route, but other airlines have cancelled routes before and they've been reinstated - sometimes even by the same airline - so I can't see why you find it absurd that Delta would commence flights to BFS. Norwegian seems to be the most likely option, given that BFS is unable to hold onto anything other than low cost operators, but for all we know American, Delta, heck even Aer Lingus or Virgin Atlantic could be the other two airlines that have sparked an interest in starting BFS-NYC flights. Only time will tell who recommences NYC flights, but there's no use in saying that Delta or any other airline will never start flying to Belfast.
I'm sure most people thought that Virgin Atlantic operating the B744 out of Belfast was an impossible dream, but here we have VA adding a second weekly frequency to their MCO route.
And with regards to Ryanair; just because Shannon has a hard time holding onto European connections doesn't mean that Belfast will suffer the same fate. Shannon is a failing airport that would inevitably close down if American tourists stopped coming. There are fewer people who live close to Shannon than Belfast, and there's a severe lack of industry in the west of Ireland to successfully maintain business links. There's simply not enough demand in the west of Ireland to maintain a comprehensive network of European destinations. That's the reason why Ryanair has pulled out of so many routes from SNN. Belfast doesn't suffer from this setback - NI already handles 8 million passengers per year across the two Belfast airports, with demand for more routes on the rise.
A realist would see that there is potential for further Ryanair routes, as well as new routes from easyJet and other airlines. Holding a grudge just because Ryanair don't fly to the destination that you want to from your local airport isn't helping anyone.
Yes United cancelled the route, but other airlines have cancelled routes before and they've been reinstated - sometimes even by the same airline - so I can't see why you find it absurd that Delta would commence flights to BFS. Norwegian seems to be the most likely option, given that BFS is unable to hold onto anything other than low cost operators, but for all we know American, Delta, heck even Aer Lingus or Virgin Atlantic could be the other two airlines that have sparked an interest in starting BFS-NYC flights. Only time will tell who recommences NYC flights, but there's no use in saying that Delta or any other airline will never start flying to Belfast.
I'm sure most people thought that Virgin Atlantic operating the B744 out of Belfast was an impossible dream, but here we have VA adding a second weekly frequency to their MCO route.
And with regards to Ryanair; just because Shannon has a hard time holding onto European connections doesn't mean that Belfast will suffer the same fate. Shannon is a failing airport that would inevitably close down if American tourists stopped coming. There are fewer people who live close to Shannon than Belfast, and there's a severe lack of industry in the west of Ireland to successfully maintain business links. There's simply not enough demand in the west of Ireland to maintain a comprehensive network of European destinations. That's the reason why Ryanair has pulled out of so many routes from SNN. Belfast doesn't suffer from this setback - NI already handles 8 million passengers per year across the two Belfast airports, with demand for more routes on the rise.
A realist would see that there is potential for further Ryanair routes, as well as new routes from easyJet and other airlines. Holding a grudge just because Ryanair don't fly to the destination that you want to from your local airport isn't helping anyone.
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Delta are starting flights to Glasgow, a mere 40 miles away from Edinburgh where they also fly to JFK. Clearly the vast majority of people what fit in Glasgow's sphere of influence also fit into Edinburgh's, but they've still decided to fly to both airports. Hence, I find it reasonable to assume that Delta would not ignore Belfast just because Dublin is relatively close by.
Yes United cancelled the route, but other airlines have cancelled routes before and they've been reinstated - sometimes even by the same airline - so I can't see why you find it absurd that Delta would commence flights to BFS. Norwegian seems to be the most likely option, given that BFS is unable to hold onto anything other than low cost operators, but for all we know American, Delta, heck even Aer Lingus or Virgin Atlantic could be the other two airlines that have sparked an interest in starting BFS-NYC flights. Only time will tell who recommences NYC flights, but there's no use in saying that Delta or any other airline will never start flying to Belfast.
I'm sure most people thought that Virgin Atlantic operating the B744 out of Belfast was an impossible dream, but here we have VA adding a second weekly frequency to their MCO route.
And with regards to Ryanair; just because Shannon has a hard time holding onto European connections doesn't mean that Belfast will suffer the same fate. Shannon is a failing airport that would inevitably close down if American tourists stopped coming. There are fewer people who live close to Shannon than Belfast, and there's a severe lack of industry in the west of Ireland to successfully maintain business links. There's simply not enough demand in the west of Ireland to maintain a comprehensive network of European destinations. That's the reason why Ryanair has pulled out of so many routes from SNN. Belfast doesn't suffer from this setback - NI already handles 8 million passengers per year across the two Belfast airports, with demand for more routes on the rise.
I'd like to see you back up the assertion that Shannon is a failing airport, and as for you remark about the Americans, well that's just plain stupid. Belfast city would close down if the English stopped coming to Belfast. Completely absurd comment.
Also worth digging to find Ryanair haven't actually pulled many routes this time. They've maintained alot of what they've had.
A realist would see that there is potential for further Ryanair routes, as well as new routes from easyJet and other airlines. Holding a grudge just because Ryanair don't fly to the destination that you want to from your local airport isn't helping anyone.
My point on Ryanair was not keeping to their promises, I did not compare markets because Belfast is completely different to anywhere else. Ryanair said they'd bring a 3rd aircraft, they haven't, that's to be expected. It's naive to expect them to do exactly as they say given the history of Ryanair.
Belfast and NI is a very different market to the republic. Discretionary income is much lower, and industry is fairly negligible too. There is a reason that Westminster pumps billions into the NI economy every year. The percentage of private jobs is much lower. Dublin, and even the Mid West (because you so loved to dig at it a second ago) has much more international investment than NI does, there are many reasons for this, and we are not just stealing it as lovely Arlene has suggested. The economy in NI is still mending, and it is getting much better, but, especially with the current political situations (brexit) let's not get ahead of ourselves.
Ryanair is a great airline, but they won't fly your little fantasy routes to satisfy you. I said there wouldn't be a 3rd Aircraft for next summer and it looks like I'm right. Be realistic. Ryanair are currently testing the waters in Belfast. If they like what they see, they may well add more. Word of Warning is that this more may be very much be hitting current established routes as well as one or two others. If Ryanair find the market marginal, you don't know what will happen.
I'd like say what I'm surprised hasn't arrived yet, and that's West Jet. Was sure they'd announce something for this summer. Again this could be related to the economic uncertainty.
This economic uncertainty will hinder Belfast's hopes of a Transatlantic service. It is a marginal market that isn't being helped by the mass expansion of a hub down the road. Belfast still does have potential for growth, don't get me wrong, but this will certainly not be as pronounced as it has been.
I am surprised EWR was dropped so easily. I don't see it coming back quickly though. I hope I'm wrong but I'm likely not.
Take on board these points, and don't just go off with petty remarks. You know what my points were and twisting words does nothing to help this. It just makes the discussion futile.
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IMO Belfast dons't fit the profile for a DL destination, fair play if they do secure them but I don't see it. They have had a very strong year in IE during 2015 & 16 which prehaps might help.
November/December stats are good however as already pointed out yield is non existent at the minute. I think you should reserve judgment for 18-24 months.
With respect there is little difference to Belfast and WOI in terms of industry, there has been low demand for a European network ex Belfast for the last decade or two as well.
Wouldn't bank on easyjet, bet capacity will stay flat.
And with regards to Ryanair; just because Shannon has a hard time holding onto European connections doesn't mean that Belfast will suffer the same fate.
and there's a severe lack of industry in the west of Ireland to successfully maintain business links. There's simply not enough demand in the west of Ireland to maintain a comprehensive network of European destinations.
A realist would see that there is potential for further Ryanair routes, as well as new routes from easyJet and other airlines. Holding a grudge just because Ryanair don't fly to the destination that you want to from your local airport isn't helping anyone.
Last edited by Jamie2k9; 18th Jan 2017 at 01:20.
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Ryanair is a great airline, but they won't fly your little fantasy routes to satisfy you. I said there wouldn't be a 3rd Aircraft for next summer and it looks like I'm right. Be realistic. Ryanair are currently testing the waters in Belfast. If they like what they see, they may well add more. Word of Warning is that this more may be very much be hitting current established routes as well as one or two others. If Ryanair find the market marginal, you don't know what will happen.