BIRMINGHAM - 5

[INKJET]

Whilst the likes of bmibaby & Ryanair don't do double daily they do provide access to some on the wish list, but many require an overnight stop or two in some cases, which means a trip down to LHR will be quicker

[OltonPete]

July pax up 1.2%

Yes up at 938739

Rolling year down 0.2% 8649992

ATM's 8096 -2.7%

On the route debate, I think a third EK or QR in 2012 was nailed on until
the Manchester expansion happened although Dubai was up 4% in July
at 46390. So maybe things are not quite so bad as I first thought.

Qatar - I think forget it in the short-term.

I think some of the city routes mentioned are fine by loco although in an
ideal world it would be nice to see full-service airlines or flybe double daily
but it looks like things are going to carry on moving slowly.

India is the obvious source for long-haul but reading some of the politics that goes on it is nothing short of breath-taking.

Pete

[OltonPete]

July route analysis (schedule flights)

Monthly figures Source: CAA

Average pax and load factor: My record, libhomeradar & BHX Blog

Some very impressive load factors and although it is easy to dismiss this as "so they should be" some of the business routes are part of the increases.

Yes there are a couple of worries such as Newark but fares are sky high in July usually and Islamabad is normally higher but the 772 has replaced the 77W compared to last year.

Milan seats have been sold to travel agents I believe on certain days and hence the large increase. Munich with its extra capacity is very good and this is based on 86 seats for the CRJ9 and 116 seats for the 195 and this is max capacity. Frankfurt load factor in reality was higher as I have based it on 168 seats for the A320 but I believe the middle seat is not sold in business.

Paris was down but only by a small amount despite the massive reduction in capacity.

Six ryanair routes 95% plus with the highest 97%.

I have left in a couple on non-scheduled Thomson long-haul figures.

DUBLIN 48,215/137 pax/75%
DUBAI 46,390/374 pax/86%
AMSTERDAM 43,202/104 pax/78%
PALMA DE MALLORCA 22943/169 pax/93%
MALAGA 32862/163 pax/87%
DALAMAN 6202/182 pax/85%
ALICANTE 25763/159 pax/86%
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE) 27,966/88 pax/82%
FRANKFURT MAIN 27,948/94 pax/60%*
FARO 21137/168 pax/87%
IBIZA 10901/173 pax/85%
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA) 15441/174 pax/85%
LARNACA 5898/200/95%
MUNICH 14,963/91 pax/84%
DUSSELDORF 14,755/52 pax/60%
ARRECIFE 9139/176 pax/87%
ZURICH 14,349/77 pax/77%
MAHON 6867/191 pax/89%
PAPHOS 3018/178 pax/83%
BODRUM (MILAS) 3131/174 pax/81%
MURCIA SAN JAVIER 10,353/148 pax/88%
FUERTEVENTURA 6264/176 pax/86%
LAS PALMAS 6262/174 pax/86%
REUS 4163/149 pax/79%
ISLAMABAD 8,922/249 pax/75%
NEW YORK (NEWARK) 8,851/142 pax/82%
BRUSSELS 8,592/48 pax/60%
HANOVER 5716/55 pax/70%
CORK 7,259/59 pax/81%
NICE 6,859/111 pax/74%
GERONA 4575/176 pax/93%
MILAN (MALPENSA) 5,652/91 pax/77%
ISTANBUL 5,552/121 pax/76%
ASHKHABAD 5,479/152 pax/81%
COPENHAGEN 5,126/83 pax/79%
BRATISLAVA 4,664/179 pax/95%
BYDGOSZCZ 4,647 /19 pax/95%
MONTPELLIER 4,645/129 pax/68%
MALTA 2950/164 pax/87%
IRELAND WEST AIRPORT KNOCK 4,257/112 pax/75%
STUTTGART 3,376/41 pax/53%
SHANNON 3,368/54 pax/74%
RZESZOW 3,289/183 pax/97%
GDANSK 3,258/181 pax/96%
KATOWICE 3,239/180 pax/95%
HAMBURG 3,179/51 pax/66%
KAUNAS 3,163/176 pax/93%
ALMERIA 3,051/191/89%
LYON 2,975/32 pax/65%
TRIESTE (RONCHI DEI LEGIONARI) 2,876/160 pax/85%
DUBROVNIK 990/99 pax/84%
TORONTO 2,664/333 pax/97%
MONTEGO BAY 2,483 -1.5 /276 pax/97%
NAPLES 2,255 -28.7
SANFORD 2,229 -0.4/278/98%
CANCUN 2,158 +8.3/269/95%
BERGERAC 1,966/52 pax/66%
BORDEAUX 1,553/49 pax/62%
BREST 1,460/61 pax/78%
WATERFORD 1,361/38 pax/79%
TOULOUSE (BLAGNAC) 1,277/49 pax/63%
AVIGNON 785/49 pax/63%
GOTEBORG 312/22 pax/53%

Pete

[getonittt]

On the route debate, I think a third EK or QR in 2012 was nailed on until
the Manchester expansion

Maybe not a third EK , but the EK39/40 being upgraded to A380 , this will still happen as and when more dumbo's enter service.

On a possitive note it's nice to see that the work on Eurojets hangar has started

[OltonPete]

Malta

Ryanair are to operate Malta from BHX this winter.

Days and times: -

Thursday dep BHX 13.20 arrive back BHX 20.30

Sunday dep BHX 16.15 arrive back 23.25

Neither flights fit the three based schedule although Sunday would only
require LDY to arrive 5 minutes earlier for a 25 min turnaround.

Thursday is a bit more difficult but one option is Dublin evening going later as a BHX based aircraft or changing to Dublin based. Otherwise there would need to be wholesale re-timings required on the other flights.

I make that 61 flights a week compared to 60 last year in November or 62 in December 2010 when Malta started.

So not bad I suppose.



Pete

[Monty Gordo]

Can someone explain

Travelled back FAO - BKX on August 18 with RYR and the plane appeared to be fully booked, at least it felt like it! Yet rows 3 and 4 were still not available to passengers.

What is the reasoning for this? Is it something to do with weight distribution? Can someone explain?

[HeliCraig]

Long and short of it is that it is indeed to do with weight & balance. By leaving rows 3 & 4 empty it allows Ryanair to use a simplified loading sheet.

[Monty Gordo]

Weight and balance

Thanks Helicraig for the explanation.

Therefore, does that mean that RYR's flights do not have every seat filled?

[ericlday]

BKX is Brookings, South Dakota. Not sure but don't think its one of Ryanairs destinations !!!!!

[FR-]

Rule 1 (Mandatory)

Passenger load of 177 or less = Block off row 3 and 4.

Rule 2 (Applicable only for aircraft balance purposes, when advised by
Captain or dispatcher)

With 129 or fewer passengers carried, front seat rows 3 through 8 and

aft 4

seat rows must be blocked off by lowering the tray tables. The tray

tables must be re-stowed before take off.

[TartinTon]

"BKX is Brookings, South Dakota. Not sure but don't think its one of Ryanairs destinations !!!!!"

I think that's DUB (West)

[Monty Gordo]

Trays down!

FR-

Excellent explanation, thanks a lot.

[FQTLSteve]

Iberia Flights

I noted the comments regarding slot requests by Iberia/Air Nostrum. It has been confirmed that they will start daily MAD-MAN service 31 October and twice weekly from Glasgow. Just don't undertsand what has happened to all the exBA pax....daily to MAD, BCN and FCO? Very depressing for BHX.

On a slightly more positive note flew LX BHX-ZRH-HAJ 13 Sep, Early morning flight from BHX to ZRH was full, got upgraded into business (M&M FTL status) as was return evening service on 16 Sep.

[OltonPete]

Thomson/Monarch

As reported on the Monarch thread possible new Avro/Monarch routes.

Chania is bookable on a Tuesday with the Mahon moving to Wednesday.

Monarch are also being used by Thomson on the Wednesday ZB FUE so
a big loss there but the TOM aircraft does a second Rhodes I think.

However Marrakech has disappeared from the booking engine on a Thursday and another Ibiza popped up for Thomson. I suppose RAK was a surprise considering what has happened.

Pete

[FR-]

Whats going on in BHX today? Getting mixed messages on facebook.

'All flights suspended from bhx airport cause of a security breach, gonna be a long day!!'

'Security alert at BHX really messed up my day now!!'

fr-

[OltonPete]

Delays

FR-

Not sure, very few delays this afternoon.

Monarch Tenerife is delayed outbound, same aircraft that diverted
to Gatwick in the earlier hours of Friday morning on BHX-ZTE but
whether that has anything to do with today's problems, I don't know.

There are shorts delays on EI Shannon and LH Munich but little else.

Pete

[jabird]

Helsinki, Warsaw, Kiev and Tel Aviv are other routes I'd like to think could come online

To be honest, I remember JF announcing the big Q400 order, and then adding in the E195s, and each time I remember thinking 'small, low cost aircraft -they must be able to open up loads of thin routes which other airlines wouldn't touch.'

What have we got?

Surely, on paper at least, ATH, TRN, BSL, ARN, OSL, HEL, WAW, MAD, BER must all look like good candidates for a daily rotation using the E195?

So are BE just being too conservative, or are mgmt happy to let these all leak to MAN & LHR, safe in the 'knowledge' that the big fancy new runway extension is going to bring in so many more users to BHX?

[OltonPete]

Preveza, Chania & Kefalonia

All now bookable on one site for 2012 with Monarch flight numbers.

PVK & EFL are on a Sunday requiring a 5th aircraft or a reduction in
the ZB schedules on that day.

I realise it is early days and things change but a hopeful sign.

jabird

Most of the destinations listed are proven markets in terms of pax but
unfortunately have not worked out yield wise. I suppose flybe would have
looked at who last operated these routes such as ARN, OSL, HEL, TXL (Duo) and it would not fill me with confidence. Although that was a long time ago and things have changed.

However baby managed volumes on MAD, Norwegian on Warsaw and Ryanair on NYO (for a while) so I am sure some will reappear in time.

You would think some of the routes would be ideal for the 175 (assuming
they turn up) but you do get the impression flybe are looking elsewhere at the moment.

Pete

[jabird]

Pete,

Obviously it is all about yields, not loads, but when you only have half as many seats to fill, it is easier to target the passengers who are likely to bring good yields. Also, I don't think NYO or VST are the same thing as ARN, they are two of the most distant Ryanairports in the game!

[jabird]

Should also add that Sterling did EMA - CPH, OSL & ARN back around 2008 iirc. I did a CPH-EMA sector, I think around 2/3rd full, and I paid about £50 a couple of weeks before travel. No idea how corresponding frequencies / loads / yields would have been on OSL & ARN, but I would expect stronger demand at BHX, and an E175 would be easier to reach B.E.P. than a 735, or one of Norwegian's 738s.

I wonder if the new BER will create an opportunity for the right carrier to (re) launch a BHX service - think that needs its own thread.