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Old 25th Dec 2012, 18:04
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There's been a bit of talk that more flights are actually needed for Toronto and Orlando. Could Air Transat expand to a 2-3x weekly operation?

I think Air Algerie could work like the likes of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan Airways worked - Uzbekistan even operated to JFK for a period of time from 2001-2003. I don't know if it could do the same but I guess they'll have to operate to just BHX first.

BHX didn't seem too confident with the US Airways operation before it commenced - reducing it to five weekly says it all. Unless they treat it like they are treating United, I feel they may struggle to hold on to any future USA routes.
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Old 25th Dec 2012, 21:53
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Plane Addict,

This summers Air Transat A330 was 98% full, so its very dissapointing that Air Transat are cutting it back to an A310 next summer for whatever reason.

The A330 planned for BHX is now going to Manchester as an extra and we get the A310 from Manchester. It takes MAN-YYZ from 6 flts a week this summer to 8 next !

NAVPI; Yes its a very big development at MAN.

However in aviation terms construction at BHX and around outstrips Manchester at present. New runway extension and 4 lane highway being constructed now ..the site is huge.

The new Monarch hangar construction starts next month and will be larger than the one at Manchester, capable of taking 2 B747-400s, or 2 77Ws at the same time. Will also be a dedicated B787 facility the only one in the UK.

SeperatelyA huge new casino,cinema complex hotel and office blocks are also being constructed at the NEC

Nigel
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Old 25th Dec 2012, 22:01
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Planeaddict - where are you suggesting Air Algerie operate? If you are suggesting they fly BHX to India via Algiers then why fly due south then fly east. Pretty pointless. If you are suggesting they fly to the States again why fly north then fly west? Pretty pointless.

if you are suggesting flying to Algiers then read what the foreign office say:
Algeria travel advice
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 03:09
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EK

Like I said, those that don't know the FULL story just speculate. I don't speculate on the figures
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 09:00
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Nigel O wrote

"The moneis made up front, and only BHX and NCL have a mostly cattle class sched now in the UK.Everyone else has lie flat beds and first class suites where the real monies made"

I really doubt that NCL would provide a significant number of first class passengers on a daily basis - even connecting. To me it looks like a a small business class, enhanced economy and economy is the way to go there

Birmingham may be different but with two flights a day you're asking for a lot of first class passenegers
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 09:00
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There is no 3rd EK planned at present BHX fact. It is widely known a 3rd would dilute revenue and seat capacity. Earliest would be late 2013 and then same as MAN an early am dep to meet the Indian and Pakistan better connections. even the EK staff have confirmed......
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 10:34
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Weren't EK planning a third daily flight years ago? I'm pretty confident it'll happen next year however.

I still think the landing charges are why airlines are refusing to fly here. For example, they are charging an A320 to land for twice as much as MAN. It doesn't affect the airport, it affects business links.
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 10:51
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EK is normally pretty much focused on generating greater yield before adding frequency (just have to look at the development of MAN to see why). I honestly believe that they will do what the did with MAN- it will be A380 and 77W before having a 3rd flight; the only problem in my scenario is that I'm led to believe that no A380s have been delivered in the config they plan to use.... i.e. no 1st class, just business and economy. That means possibly adding 150 seats each way so delaying a 3rd flight even further.
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 11:26
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Crewmeal,

I sort of agree with you re Air Algerie, however suppose you could say many people take Emirares travelling SSE to then connect from Dubai ,then fly WSW to South Africa ?

Having said that the Algerian population is not large in the Midlands and would be surprised if they came to BHX..but you never know.

Nigel
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 12:03
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TAP

I notice that their MAN service is going up again to x10 weekly with the A321 being used on at least one of the flights. Wonder if this boost has been helped by the loss of bmibaby here? Realistically I think their the only major European airline we could see starting BHX in the short-term.
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 12:05
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EK is normally pretty much focused on generating greater yield before adding frequency (just have to look at the development of MAN to see why).
What does this even mean?

They are still in significant growth mode are they are looking to build as large a scale hub as possible, which means frequency and scale into and out of large markets. In particular, it means adding frequency and scale into markets where other look-a-like competitors are also trying to get a stranglehold. Their UK presence is directly influenced by what Qatar & Ethiad offer and also the connecting options offered by BA, LH, AFB. In this regard the competitve market ex-MAN is very different to BHX market.
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 13:00
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Nigel -
I sort of agree with you re Air Algerie, however suppose you could say many people take Emirares travelling SSE to then connect from Dubai ,then fly WSW to South Africa ?
Yes you have a good point in which case Algiers is exactly on track for South Africa. But I haven't ever see SA mentioned on any BHX forums. It's been about the States, the Far East and Australia.

If I was flying to SA from BHX I would look at a European connection first, not DXB.
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 13:07
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I doubt South Africa can presently be served directly by BHX anyway, but even if it was would people use it?

Last edited by Planeaddict; 26th Dec 2012 at 13:08.
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 15:33
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North West,

I think you have to add to your hypothisis "keeping up with the Jones" Emirates expanded at MAN which was followed by Qatar and then Etihad.

Thjy flooded the market expanding at virtually the same time, with way too many seats leading to Qatar having to cut frequencies.

I think especially Etihad as they are blinded by their links to Manchester City and seemingly having a bottomless pit of money. I am quite sure if Emirates added another rotation Etihad would do the same just to keep up !

Nigel
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 15:39
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Crewmeal you may not be quite correct.

We were looking at Visiting SA next year and the Travel Agent said the cheapest way was to fly BHX-DXB then on to SA from there.

My neighbour and family did it last July and a friend and his are doing it next May.

So seems it might be a pretty popular way to get their from Birmingham after what Travel Bag told us and my small snap shot of others I mention.

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Old 26th Dec 2012, 20:40
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My final words on EK.

Load factors - When the flight isn't full the booked business load factor (paid for seats before the upgrades for airmiles start) will normally exceed economy. When 'old' 3 class a/c come in (12/42/310) it is not unusual for the booked business figure to exceed 42, 54 happens often enough to be not classed as out of the ordinary and is sometimes the reason for the 3 class to be scheduled.

Under the floor are up to 44 ULD positions, it is normal for all positions to be used and having nil fit on the outbound load plan is unusual. Several times a year the inbound cargo figure exceeds 27,000kg, the maximum outbound figure has exceeded 29,000kg with a full passenger load! Normal loads exceed 10,000kg.

As I stated before, BHX is normally amongst the top 4 yielding routes in the EK system. The flight numbers and timings for the 3rd service are known, the flights will start when it fits in with the plan. There are other priorities for the new a/c coming on line which are more urgent than BHX. The only people who know where we are on the list work in DXB, they will tell us when they are ready but we are on the list!
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Old 26th Dec 2012, 21:40
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The flight numbers and timings for the 3rd service are known,
EK041/2 by any chance
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Old 27th Dec 2012, 06:54
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The flight numbers for a 4th and 5th Manchester service are known, so they are on the list doesn't mean they will start soon.
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Old 27th Dec 2012, 11:02
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EK041/2 by any chance
Presumably. I'd expect it to get underway next year, can't see them put it off any longer.

On which of the two flights are the yields worse? Have any of the two flights ever been full?

Whatever happened to that campaign two years ago to bring back flights to India? Doesn't seem BHX are aiming much for it.

Last edited by Planeaddict; 27th Dec 2012 at 11:07.
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Old 27th Dec 2012, 16:45
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Planeaddict.

BHX are trying to get Air India back, sent a delegation to India in the summer.To be fair they did sign a new contract with Air India, but it was then blocked by the Indian Govt and they sacked those responsible who signed it.

If Qatar do start this year out of BHX doubt EK will go for a 3rd Flight soon..However if it becomes clear to them that Qatars recent words saying they are to start from BHX do not soon bring about a start date then EK may look at a 3rd service.

Unfortunately BHX loads were reduced by 10% when Etihad, Qatar and Emirates expanded out of MAN again last year.If it happens again not good news for BHX !

Nigel
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