BIRMINGHAM - 5

[nigel osborne]

ATNOTTS.

Hi Andrew,

Re BIMAN Im afraid you are way out with your figures re number of Bengalis and others from the Indian Sub Continent in Birmingham and Manchester;

From the latest England and Wales population census 2011, just published this month.in order;Bengalis first;

1.London 168,000
2. Birmingham 25,500
3.Bradford 12,000
4. Oldham 10,300
5. Luton 8,000

Manchester just mentioned as having clusters.



Pakistani origin in England latest figures I can find; Top 3.

1.London 224,000
2.Birmingham 140,000
3.Bradford 80,000.

Coventry Manchester and Leeds then mentioned as having lower but still sizeable populations.

From the whole Indian subcontinent West Midlands had 3.5% from this area, North West 1.5% Yorkshire and Humberside 1.5%

So Birmingham and West Midlands has much higher numbers than Manchester and NW and still in the lead just if you add Yorkshire etc.

After all that doubt doesn't mean we will get more flights !

Nigel

[Planeaddict]

I presume there is sort of a market for YYZ as it seems Air India didn't have any issues making the BHX-YYZ leg work. Air Transat operate an A330 on a few occasions so those flights must be getting filled (though I don't see why they wouldn't do it year round, maybe Air Canada could provide that).

If an indian carrier was to return, which one would you hope it'd be? I'm not holding my breath for Air India, especially considering what has happened recently with them having to go back to square one. Jet Airways is a possiblity, and possibly Kingfisher.

Emirates brought in a second daily flight around 2 years after they brought one in at Manchester. They brought in a third daily flight at Manchester just last May, so if they follow the same pattern, we could be looking at it soon. If that was the case, I think they'd start with the A330. If we are looking at the current yields and pax numbers (and whatever else is needed to be looked at), does it warrant another flight?

I hope that when they announce any new routes for the summer timetable, we may be hearing about the Qatar service, as well as any service to ORD.

[crewmeal]

Planeaddict dream on! Try looking at the wider picture. If there were the loads and yields then airlines would operate from Brum. Just because EK operate a 3rd daily service out of MAN doesn't mean Brum will follow. The figures barely support a 2nd service at the moment, so it's unlikely that they will start a 3rd.

YYZ seems to work during the summer. There is insufficient traffic to operate a schedule during the winter when you have LHR 100 miles south and MAN 90 miles north.

Regarding Asian carriers we're lucky to support a 3/4 x weekly service to ISB. If there is evidence of growth in the Pakistani market then I'm sure PK or other carriers will take up the slack. Regarding India there are many comments in this thread without me adding to it.

Other North American carriers I'm sure will operate when there is evidence of sufficient numbers to operate to Brum. Airlines are always looking for growth regardless of route. But they have to make money and in this economic climate few will take the gamble.

Regarding QR wait until the wheels touch the runway. (I don't mean a diversion.)

[OltonPete]

Novedmber route analysis

As usual the monthly figures from the CAA, the average pax and load factor per my estimates from a BHX blog, libhomeradar and planespotters.net. Schedule services only 2011 in brackets.

Any help from across the Irish Sea re Knock & Waterford would be appreciated, as I am sure some Knock flights might not have operated and I couldn't find any Waterford flights on a Wednesday - did they operate or was it three a week?

DUBLIN 46,236 (45160)---------135 pax----75% on less rotations

DUBAI 38,568 (39280)-----------324 pax---78% - EK38 on 30th probably in Dec figures as tech
AMSTERDAM 37,963 (38143)----90 pax---80% impressive considering Q400's rather than 733's
PARIS (CDG) 29,550 (29015) ----90 pax---75%
TENERIFE 13463 (16027)-------192 pax----93% - less flight not - enough seats
FRANKFURT 21,494 (19932)-----90 pax-----65%
ALICANTE 12619 (17204) --------180 pax-----89% (BMI Baby capacity not replaced & less ZB)
DUSSELDORF 15,967 (15013)-----47 pax-----55%
ARRECIFE 7203 (6980)-----------180 pax-----89% (less capacity more pax)
MUNICH 14,923 (12459)----------73 pax------55% (not sure if this route needs 2 airlines)
MALAGA 11653 (11516)-----------177 pax------87% (more pax way less capacity)
BRUSSELS 9,228 (10393)---------53 pax-------47%
ZURICH 8,309 (11060)------------69 pax-------70% (33.333% cut in rotations)
FUERTEVENTURA 3837 (3047) 174 pax-----87%
FARO 7171 (7530) -----------------179 pax------89%
COPENHAGEN 7,180 (7663)------76 pax------76%
ISLAMABAD 6,879 (7538)--------265 pax-----73%
NEW YORK (EWR) 6,841 (6287)-143 pax----84%
CORK 6,404 (6494)------------------53 pax----74%
ISTANBUL 6,268 (4487)----------105 pax----68%
HANOVER 3582 (4215)------------ 60 pax-----71% (frequency reduction but a few 195's)
ASHKHABAD 5,251 (5021)-------154 pax-----81%
LAS PALMAS 3182 (4984)--------177 pax-----89%
BERLIN (TEGEL) 5,084 (nil)------88 pax-----64%
ROME (FCO) 4,180 (nil)-----------130 pax-----75%
BARCELONA 4,088 (nil)----------146 pax-----77%
BYDGOSZCZ 4,017 (4113)-------155 pax-----82%
STOCKHOLM (ARN) 3,896 (nil)-75 pax------55% approx
LARNACA 2959 (3644)----------185 pax------86%
VENICE 3,547 (nil)---------------118 pax------60% - quite a few A321's - poor planning (68% A320)
PALMA 3098 (nil)----------------141 pax-------75%
FUNCHAL 2018 (nil)-------------112 pax-------64%
RZESZOW 3,169 (2501)---------144 pax------.76% (possibly 151 pax 80% if one flight diverted)
MALTA 3,096 (2615)------------172 pax-------92%
SHANNON 3,005 (2952)---------50 pax-------70%
BRATISLAVA 2,964 (4007)----165 pax-------87% (reduced 3 to 2 a week)
HAMBURG 2,896 (1608)---------60 pax-------70%
BUDAPEST 2,593 (nil)----------162 pax -------86% (Must be real cheap fares?)
MILAN (MXP) 2,554 (1713)-----46 pax-------50%
KATOWICE 2,527 (2363)-------158 pax-------84%
STUTTGART 2,511 (3204)------31 pax-------39%
KRAKOW 2,272 (nil)-------------162 pax-------86%
KNOCK 2,224 (3451)-------------37 pax--------51% (733 to ATR72)
BERGAMO 2,002 (nil) -----------91 pax--------48% (seems very low)
WATERFORD 1,260 (658)------ 52 pax--------67% (Arann stopped in Nov 11 -)
MURCIA 1,062 (nil) -------------133 pax-------70% (ended 6/11)
GIRONA 722 (2518)--------------120 pax-------64& (ended 5/11 and replaced with BCN)
GDANSK 629 (2607)-------------157 pax-------83% (ended 6/11)
REUS 432 (nil)---------------------108 pax........57%
TRIESTE 563 (nil)----------------140 pax-------75% (ended 4/11)
KAUNAS 354 (2438)-------------177 pax-------94% (ended 4/11)
Prague Nil
Lyon Nil
Gothenburg nil

Pete

[Fairdealfrank]

Quote: "I presume there is sort of a market for YYZ as it seems Air India didn't have any issues making the BHX-YYZ leg work. Air Transat operate an A330 on a few occasions so those flights must be getting filled (though I don't see why they wouldn't do it year round, maybe Air Canada could provide that)."

AI are not on the route now, so there must have been some issues!

Quote: "If an indian carrier was to return, which one would you hope it'd be? I'm not holding my breath for Air India, especially considering what has happened recently with them having to go back to square one. Jet Airways is a possiblity, and possibly Kingfisher."

AFAIK, IT have suspended all overseas flights and now just doing domestic. They appear to be in deep trouble. AI are also in trouble and won't be returning anytime soon. As for 9W, think it's very doubtful they'll be on the route.

[mart901]

I'm scratching my head with the EIR Dub flights. They seem to have been priced at somewhat excessive rates, over and above the original EI flights. It looks rather like they have been earmarked for something else and will mysteriously go off sale and BHD will appear is my guess?? And possibly also see NOC operated off the same a/c. BHX certainly is an important base for EI/EIR with 4 routes, a based a/c would be a boon. EI have, many moons ago based a 146 overnight at BHX to facilitate a very early departure.

[Jamie2k9]

All airlines have above normal prices for extra flights when they are added. They will drop.

Aer Lingus update flight prices largely on Friday and Mondays only and they have dropped since they went on sale on Thursday.

Remenber that Aer Lingus planned 3 daily A320 and 1 daily ATR72 from last June but moved to NOC when WW closed the route.

[Skipness One Echo]

though I don't see why they wouldn't do it year round, maybe Air Canada could provide that

It's quite intensely seasonal, Canadians fly *South* in the winter, not East. When Air Canada were on BHX-YYZ before I am not even sure if it was year round.

so if they follow the same pattern, we could be looking at it soon.

Emirates had to introduce a third service as QR and EY were breathing down their throats and they were keen to maintain market share. The growth at MAN may in some way be at the expense of BHX where the same growth has not been seen.

** I just saw someone quoted my "breathing down their throat" blonde moment so I can't edit it. I really did mean necks....

[mart901]

Yes but remember Jamie EIR were expected to launch NOC long before they did. Placing the ATR on the DUB surprised a lot of people, then suddenly it was switched to NOC, like a planned move. BHD has been rumoured for quite some time, just watch this space is all I will say!

[mart901]

Also noticed BRS-DUB has extra flights, randomly with a rotation that doesn't correlate to anything on their schedule, also priced way above other flights.

[StoneyBridge Radar]

Emirates had to introduce a third service as QR and EY were breathing down their throats and they were keen to maintain market share. The growth at MAN may in some way be at the expense of BHX where the same growth has not been seen.

The evening MAN rotation being upgraded to A388 next September will also be of no help to BHX's loads.

I wonder what effect, if any, it will have on QR coming to Brum...

Rgds

[Navpi]

Must confess I just cant see BHX competing for all the bravado coming from management. Airlines are polarising on MAN and LHR.

Manchester is an hour to North and Luton /Heathrow an hour to South.

If you lived in say Wolverhampton or Stafford and had a flight check in at sat 9am would you really sit on the M6 for an hour +...much easier to head North !

Rumours suggest EK they are putting another A380 in on the evening flight that will suck even more traffic away.......as ETIHAD and QTR respond !

I am more inclined to think EK would put the second BHX into MAN. Two flights with lowish yields then switch to one flight that becomes a high earner !

[Planeaddict]

OK, maybe an Indian carrier isn't going to operate at BHX any time soon.

But one thing that must be on the cards is an indoor viewing area surely?

Just pointing out, when PIA first started at BHX with 747's, when they were operating flights to Karachi/Lahore, the flights usually came back full. Of course, PIA don't operate 747's into the UK anymore. Didn't they fly to Peshawar for a while in 2004? How did that work out?

What has Continental done well to keep hold of it's BHX-EWR service for 15 years?

[Jamie2k9]

Yes but remember Jamie EIR were expected to launch NOC long before they did. Placing the ATR on the DUB surprised a lot of people, then suddenly it was switched to NOC, like a planned move. BHD has been rumoured for quite some time, just watch this space is all I will say!

I suspect that NOC would of preferred Flybe to launch BHX before EIR and when BE wouldn't they came to EIR.

If you look at the schedule you will see why the extra flight times were selected.

Also noticed BRS-DUB has extra flights, randomly with a rotation that doesn't correlate to anything on their schedule, also priced way above other flights.

BRS-DUB was 3 daily last summer but released as 2 this summer and the 4 afternoon flights were added on Thursday (busiest days on the route). Until June the afternoon flights offer connections to afternoon T/A flights before a time change in July.

If we use you logic about the prices then the two recent MON routes launched won't operate and will be moved as the prices are way above the norm.

[NJTCF]

Rumour EGBB.

Here is an interesting Airline. And i have heard it mentioned twice in the last couple of weeks. Air Algerie

[Planeaddict]

Here is an interesting Airline. And i have heard it mentioned twice in the last couple of weeks. Air Algerie

Are you suggesting they could serve BHX?

I've had a look at their list of destinations, it's worth pointing out that they no longer serve MAN and LGW, and only serve LHR with 737s/A330s/767s.

Would it benefit BHX? No onward connections to India however, but there are connections to the likes of Beijing. Also worth noting that the airline doesn't fly to the USA - there comes in the idea of transiting through BHX and people from the Midlands could use the service aswell.

In the unlikely chance that they would go ahead with BHX if they were considering it, they could actually use the A330 depending on how confident they are with it's success. Air India could have easily used an A310 from Delhi but chose to use the 777 as they were sure there was demand.

[rutankrd]

Air Algérie is a carrier that doesn't do connections and Algeria is not very tourist friendly either.

The main source of revenue is related to oil and gas based in the Desert town of Hassi Messaoud -
From Gatwick this had a direct flight by Air Algérie for a time however the oil contracts are now covered by regular charters.

The very brief Manchester service some winters ago [2002-2003] accounted for something like 4 to 6 rotations maximum and non carried more the a few tens of passengers plus a ton or so of cargo.
The flight was expected to win some oil contracts however these never materialised and flight folded. A spate of terrorist incidents in Algeria around that time didn't help ether.

Given the UK petrochemical industries are clustered just west of Manchester I can't for the life of me understand why they would look at Birmingham !

[Planeaddict]

A bit of debate going on on YouTube about BHX being able to handle the A380. Someone has mentioned that the A388 has very good take off performance and could take off with a full load from BHX safely as it would not require full tanks of fuel to reach DXB, and that it performs very well on runways significantly shorter than BHX's.

Reading some old topics on Airliners.net, Turkmenistan were to start YYZ from BHX but this didn't go ahead. Uzbekistan operated a service to JFK for a period of time; for a while in 2001 and then was resumed in 2003, then terminated altogether.

Would Delta work at all at BHX? Of course I think it'd be down to the 'start-up package' and the aircraft used - I think if they flew from JFK, more people would use it, more so than Edinburgh.

[chaps2011]

Very much doubt Delta will do BHX and EDI is a much better market for them
being a capital city, tourist from US and Oil just up coast

Chaps

[CabinCrewe]

Yes and when both JFK and ATL didnt work at EDI, id be surprised if they worked at BHX. Cant see them even looking at BHX currently anyway.