Aer Lingus - 6
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Why aren't they up in arms? Perhaps because there is as yet no formal bid or transaction for the competition regulator (CMA or DG COMP) to evaluate? Once IAG makes a formal bid and there is something for the regulator to look at, you can expect it to get involved.
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The whole debate rages on about the finer details of the promises that IAG is expected to make. Yes we need a commitment that IAG would not scrap flights from Ireland to the UK, and that guarantee looks good for 7 years. But there are 2 issues here:
1. BA could simply axe their own 8 times daily DUB LHR route and put the slots elsewhere, and EI could step up the route to 321's as opposed to 320 (and the rare 319s on the route these days). So in effect, capacity could be reduced...
2. Qatar Airways are in the background with a large interest in IAG, while the most likely would be prevented from taking over a majority of the group, changes in dynamic and ownership, may put any agreements made now between Ireland and IAG is doubt... not as if the Irish government could regain its shareholding.
All in all DUB LHR is a very attractive route of significant scale. So it will be in place, we can be very sure about that. But it is Cork and Shannon that needs the assurances the most....
EI-BUD
1. BA could simply axe their own 8 times daily DUB LHR route and put the slots elsewhere, and EI could step up the route to 321's as opposed to 320 (and the rare 319s on the route these days). So in effect, capacity could be reduced...
2. Qatar Airways are in the background with a large interest in IAG, while the most likely would be prevented from taking over a majority of the group, changes in dynamic and ownership, may put any agreements made now between Ireland and IAG is doubt... not as if the Irish government could regain its shareholding.
All in all DUB LHR is a very attractive route of significant scale. So it will be in place, we can be very sure about that. But it is Cork and Shannon that needs the assurances the most....
EI-BUD
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7 year LHR guarantee (years 6/7 dependent on 2014 airport charges not being exceeded)
Articles of Association to include LHR legalities
Head office and brand to stay in Ireland
Minister of Finance to keep 1 Share with powers
Jobs
635+ new jobs (150 by end of 2016) by 2020
No compulsory redundancies
Rights etc protected
Dublin
At 4 N American Destinations, 8 additional aircraft (2 routes next year) and 2.5 million additional passengers by 2020.
Cork
Cork-Paris/Amsterdam kept.
Shannon
Enhanced BA service (LCY-SNN-JFK)
KLM will remain part of AMS.
Articles of Association to include LHR legalities
Head office and brand to stay in Ireland
Minister of Finance to keep 1 Share with powers
Jobs
635+ new jobs (150 by end of 2016) by 2020
No compulsory redundancies
Rights etc protected
Dublin
At 4 N American Destinations, 8 additional aircraft (2 routes next year) and 2.5 million additional passengers by 2020.
Cork
Cork-Paris/Amsterdam kept.
Shannon
Enhanced BA service (LCY-SNN-JFK)
KLM will remain part of AMS.
Last edited by EI-A330-300; 26th May 2015 at 19:52.
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This in my view can only be a positive development. Despite commentators on RTE explaining how the company has been profitable etc. the fact is that Ryanair is growing its point to point traffic, and the Aer Lingus needs to be part of something bigger.
Should we expect to see KLM launch Dublin Amsterdam quite quickly to complement its new Belfast City Amsterdam route to secure its long standing connecting traffic business at AMS
What is involved with IAG gaining majority shareholding? Is it a foregone conclusion that Ryanair will sell? I think I read today as part of their results that they await a formal offer ....
Should we expect to see KLM launch Dublin Amsterdam quite quickly to complement its new Belfast City Amsterdam route to secure its long standing connecting traffic business at AMS
What is involved with IAG gaining majority shareholding? Is it a foregone conclusion that Ryanair will sell? I think I read today as part of their results that they await a formal offer ....
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What is involved with IAG gaining majority shareholding? Is it a foregone conclusion that Ryanair will sell? I think I read today as part of their results that they await a formal offer ....
Should we expect to see KLM launch Dublin Amsterdam quite quickly to complement its new Belfast City Amsterdam route to secure its long standing connecting traffic business at AMS
IMHO, It's still all about the slots. I can not see any strategic value to IAG in the acquisition of EI other than the LHR slots (either in IAG getting them or preventing a competitor having them).
The devil will be in the detail. Unless there's explicit rules on the slot pairs/times/usage, suppose the following; the Irish government get a broad guarantee that the the number of EI slots used for routes to Ireland remains the same with IAG agreeing on the condition that the route remains profitable. In that case, couldn't IAG just move the EI flights to less revenue generative times, increase the costs base (say running a 321 rather than a 320), declare the route/slot pair unprofitable the reallocate to to a BA long haul?
Similarly, BA could just as easily drop their current DUB service and reallocate those slots, allowing the EI portion of IAG to run a monopoly on the routes as a BA feeder and jack the prices up.
Still, maybe within 7 years the politicians in the UK will get their act together and either approve a capacity increase at Heathrow or build a brand new bigger airport somewhere ... either of which would render the above 'conspiracy theories' moot.
JAS
The devil will be in the detail. Unless there's explicit rules on the slot pairs/times/usage, suppose the following; the Irish government get a broad guarantee that the the number of EI slots used for routes to Ireland remains the same with IAG agreeing on the condition that the route remains profitable. In that case, couldn't IAG just move the EI flights to less revenue generative times, increase the costs base (say running a 321 rather than a 320), declare the route/slot pair unprofitable the reallocate to to a BA long haul?
Similarly, BA could just as easily drop their current DUB service and reallocate those slots, allowing the EI portion of IAG to run a monopoly on the routes as a BA feeder and jack the prices up.
Still, maybe within 7 years the politicians in the UK will get their act together and either approve a capacity increase at Heathrow or build a brand new bigger airport somewhere ... either of which would render the above 'conspiracy theories' moot.
JAS
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Will aer lingus retain their leisure routes from cork and Shannon from this deal I wouldn't be surprised if KLM enter the Irish market with competition to aer lingus
If they don't they will be forced be authorities in UK/Europe anyway at some stage.
Lots of legal precedence and protection for minority shareholders and UK would basically have to scrap them all.
It would basically mean that takeover law would change which would annoy Tory paymasters.
In practice Ryanair will probably just take the cash after forcing this to go through monoplies and mergers review.
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How will acl operations be affected has Shannon transatlantic connectivity been guaranteed
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How will acl operations be affected has Shannon transatlantic connectivity been guaranteed
Gavin,
I suspect that Shannon transatlantic routes with EI are never guaranteed and the airline operates these purely on a commercial basis.... I.e. if they pay there way they are sustained.... by all accounts sounds like the operation with a 757 in place is paying its way...
Lets hope
EI-BUD
Gavin,
I suspect that Shannon transatlantic routes with EI are never guaranteed and the airline operates these purely on a commercial basis.... I.e. if they pay there way they are sustained.... by all accounts sounds like the operation with a 757 in place is paying its way...
Lets hope
EI-BUD
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This has to be good news for EI...in today's world, smaller airlines are struggling, and security comes from being part of a bigger group. EI is a well-run and profitable small airline, but to maintain that position will become more difficult against the consolidated big guys. Now, IAG can bring investment in a significant way...4 new transatlantic routes for a start. That has to be attractive. LHR will be secure, as FR and others will provide the competitive pressure. And I've always seen this move as IAG ensuring they have insurance against the lack of an R3 at LHR. They can now route north American TA business via either LHR or DUB and south American via LHR or MAD. If you live in Glasgow or Manchester, a BA / EI flight via DUB to JFK / BOS / SFO / IAD / YYZ / MCO etc. might be a tempting proposition...
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what is the general synopsis with this deal on this forum personally i think iag will bring greater brand recognition and a lot of money and investment into aer lingus but i think dublin is all thats going to be on their radar in the years to come unless we see vueling expand to cork shannon and possibly knock
I call you back
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Quote:
If they don't they will be forced be authorities in UK/Europe anyway at some stage.
If they don't they will be forced be authorities in UK/Europe anyway at some stage.
Lots of legal precedence and protection for minority shareholders and UK would basically have to scrap them all.
It would basically mean that takeover law would change which would annoy Tory paymasters.
In practice Ryanair will probably just take the cash after forcing this to go through monoplies and mergers review.
You insist that the blocking of a takeover was the basis for the decision. It wasn't. It was a minor part of it.
Secondly, if Ryanair doesn't sell its share, and IAG withdraws, then FR WILL HAVE BLOCKED A TAKEOVER thus proving the decision correct.
Who are you trying to fool?