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Aer Lingus - 6

Old 9th Feb 2013, 10:37
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And Racedo, you think.....
Sober

You had to ask !!!! As you a reasonable poster bereft of the emotional rantings of some on here I will repond accordingly.

Think should just cut it loose and flog the shareholding for €250M + to who ever will buy it.

Start a T/A business up from scratch and with €250M + €100M not paid to Flybe its decent seed capital for a 15-20 plane T/A operation using SNN and a number of other places as hubs.

I believe whomever wins it will be a Pyrhhic victory.

FR will spend too much time and resources intergrating it and take their eye of the ball in their mega profitable core business...................few hostile bids ever deliver what they promise to, management of company taken over generally leave very quickly.

If takeover doesn't happen then EI have to deliver in keeping the share price high which brings its own difficulties............pay more dividends is one way but that will suck cash out of the business for nil return.

Every 1 Cent in dividend costs roughly €5.3 Million, so div of 4 cents announced last week is €21 Million paid out. This is cash that could have been invested within company.

There is the EI potential pension liability which has a potential to suck €25-40 million cash a year from the business for 10 years if Irish courts rule accordingly that way. Its a claimed pension fund liability of €750M as per submissions to court. It won't be a nil cost.

If courts ruled on EI immediate liability and demand single massive shortfall payment (doubtful) of €250 M to cover deficit then EI would have interesting discussions with their bankers. The debt holders and creditors would start to worry about payment which is not a good situation to be in.

Then there would be the trading issue if FR started up a T/A business as while believe EI would realistically expect to hold 50-60% of their existing Pax I think losing 40-50% creates a big revenue and profit gap.
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Old 9th Feb 2013, 11:29
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Not forgetting the 750 million that fr will have to pay for pensions.
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Old 9th Feb 2013, 14:40
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EI v FR

Q4 was disapointing for EI no improvement v 2011 , mind you the defence costs of €7m or nearly that off the bottom line didnt help at all

I wonder just how much FR and EI have lost on the three now dead bids, plus loss in share values for FR investment, staggering numbers and makes me see that Ducksie just is out of his depth on this one , and it will fail

Anyway well done EI 2012 was pretty good, the Q4 issue is being tackled with TC taking A330 wet lease , this winter 2-3 under utilised A330's plus crew hurt the accounts, next Q4 will be different , Cancun here I come

Nope held onto my share , Meccano is my man ...holding for the big payout

I think Ducksie once bid €2.80 in 2006 for EI shares.... this must be ruinign his breakfast...

Sorted the need for 320;s for VS , thanks to SK

Means EIR will not have to be totally re orged to cover UK BHX MAN routes

Intersting times but at least Ducksie will get out with a big loss on his efforts rather than a huge loss...

And Mr H is just waiting , A330 spare and wants EI to take it ...Q4 again ,
Phuket of all places but well again it will make Q4 this year peachy

All things considered Mr M is doing just fine steady hand for the long road

Pension issue is not going to be a huge injection tentative number almost signed off on all sides

Just lets get this pest to focus on his own under utilized Q4 fleet and maybe take a leaf out of Mr Muellers approach ...
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Old 9th Feb 2013, 20:48
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"Quote:
"Last loss was last quarter where lost same as last year"


Wow. I dont think i've ever seen such an eloquent contributor lose credibility so quickly. Ever.
http://corporate.aerlingus.com/media...1212_Final.pdf

If you are going to comment on Aer Lingus financials at least read what they have paid their Finance team and PR team to produce"


I'm not commenting on EI financials per se at all Racedo, just your rather daft point about Q4 losses, which as I am sure you aware, are a feature of almost every airline. To honestly suggest that these amount to losses of concern to investors which would affect the share price, even when the annual figure is still hugely positive, completely destroys the credibility of your argument.

But nice try to deflect, though....yet evidently, everybody else has read the situation just as I have, judging from the comments.
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Old 9th Feb 2013, 21:00
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I'm not commenting on EI financials per se at all Racedo, just your rather daft point about Q4 losses, which as I am sure you aware, are a feature of almost every airline. To honestly suggest that these amount to losses of concern to investors which would affect the share price, even when the annual figure is still hugely positive, completely destroys the credibility of your argument.
Which Annual figure is hugely positive ..........

Operational Profit after exceptionals ? down 51%
Profit before Tax ? down 52%
Profit after Tax ? down 52%

At least read what Aer Lingus have publicly stated before talking about credibility.
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Old 9th Feb 2013, 21:18
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Racedo, operating profits up 40.7%, that's what counts, last years profits were boosted by the sale of an aircraft. This year restucturing costs resulted in a once off loss from moving maintainence facilities all to DUB in Hangar 6, and the fees involved in fending off the Ryanair bid.

Actual day to day business, the important thing, has increased a considerable 40.7%, so let's not knock them.

And highest ever passenger numbers ever carried this year, passing 10.8 million.

Not bad, certainly positive results, no need to knock them just because they're not Ryanair...
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Old 9th Feb 2013, 21:18
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Lets also read the bits were EI state they made a 40M profit in 2012,
(-taking into account costs of 10M in relation to the FR bid,
-the fact that they are spending money to move MX to DUB which will reap benefits next year and thereafter,
-the exceptional revenue created from assets disposal last year)

They are also very upfront with their plans to counteract this ~50% in net profit/operational profit by getting into the ACMI business to try to move away from their over reliance on a single market which is currently going through the worst recession in its history. And in their investor briefing they say they will continue to reduce costs and look for operational efficiencies.
EI also state that 60% of their L/H traffic in 2012 was sourced outside their home market.

You correctly point out some of the facts Racedo. We could all selectively quote a small number of figures to support our argument....haven't I already done that in this post?

I dunno but as an investor I would be thinking......these guys are managing to do well in a really bad economic situation. They are continuing to work on improving their situation by growing organically and looking for low risk ventures with which to grow their revenue while protecting their cash reserves with prudent fiscal behaviour.

It may not be sexy but it works.

Last edited by DollarBill; 9th Feb 2013 at 22:13.
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Old 9th Feb 2013, 22:54
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"At least read what Aer Lingus have publicly stated before talking about credibility"

Let's try this again, shall we?

"Last loss was last quarter where lost same as last year"


That's what you said. You were challenged on the basis that this is meaningless, as the annual figures show what amount to healthy profits and a healthy margin in this industry, as you should very well know.

Now, be my guest if you wish to deflect on to other areas or tidbits of data, but I and everyone else here are certainly very clear on what your claim was - that EI post losses, and that investors are concerned at this, and that this depresses the share price.

EI post a loss for one quarter (better than most!)
They post a decent annual profit.
They earn a decent margin for this industry.
They do this when their home market is in economic doldrums.

You'd probably be taken more seriously if you just admitted the above. It still does not detract from any argument you wish to make that this take over is still desirable.
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Old 9th Feb 2013, 23:26
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tell you what folks, with lent beckning, why not give up responding to racedo until after easter? after all surely lies and half truths will pervert our righteousness?
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Old 10th Feb 2013, 06:47
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Well if he/she/it felt that once a bid was unsucessful the share price would collapse then better to take what is on offer now rather than watch it all collapse. A reason not to would be to hold on for an improved offer which as indicated in previous post is pretty routine in hostile takeovers.
What's on offer now is 10 cents in excess of the defunct FR bid, but I don't see too many heading for the doors.
Except a few of your credulous mugs.....
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Old 10th Feb 2013, 12:26
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What's on offer now is 10 cents in excess of the defunct FR bid, but I don't see too many heading for the doors.
Except a few of your credulous mugs.....
Ah good old selective quoting.........ah well

IF that was the case of nobody interested then why is there so much activity in share dealing ?

The old bid is the old bid but not unknown for share price to go above potential bid price before falling back down or for a second offer to come in.

There of course could be the White Knight waiting in the wings but doubt that.
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Old 10th Feb 2013, 13:20
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Sad little man.
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Old 10th Feb 2013, 17:03
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Darkest Surrey?.......Darkest Giggistown more like
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Old 10th Feb 2013, 18:07
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IF that was the case of nobody interested then why is there so much activity in share dealing ?
Let's see;

Gubmint - not selling.
Staff - not selling.
Denis - not selling.
Etihad - not selling (want to buy more).
Pension Funds/Institutional Investors- Sticky. Some might be swayed if price was right.

That leaves you with the speculators and carpet baggers.
Big action there alright.

I guess you've done the math?
Tight, innit!

I'm a reasonable man.
I've already told you I'd consider selling.
You know my price.

Last edited by Meccano; 10th Feb 2013 at 18:10.
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Old 11th Feb 2013, 16:50
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January Traffic

Short Haul:
518,000 up 0.8%
4.4 drop in capacity
LF 62.7 up 0.2%

Long Haul:
55,000 up 12.2%
2.9% increase in capacity
LF 68.2 up 6.4

EI Regional
65,000 up 22.65%

EI Total
638,000 up 3.6%
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Old 12th Feb 2013, 08:22
  #1236 (permalink)  
 
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Interesting

Aer Lingus: underlying profits rise for ‘Ireland’s civilised airline’, but beware any fall in RASK | CAPA - Centre for Aviation
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Old 12th Feb 2013, 12:25
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Bid Rejected

The EU seems to have rejected the bid- but of course they will appeal. Hopefully thats the end of this nonsense. Let EI concentrate on growing and investing for the future.

Ryanair loses bid for Aer Lingus · Business ETC
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Old 12th Feb 2013, 14:58
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Thank God for that....
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Old 12th Feb 2013, 16:35
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Michael won't be going away fast akin to the dog with the bone. Anyone thinks its time for handstands and to bring out the bunting is removed from reality.

The fact is FR are a hostile shareholder is without doubt. They also own close to 30% EIN stock. There's many many more stings and twists in the road ahead and what happens in the weeks/months ahead will tell a lot. Today's events are just the kick off of an end game of the future of EIN imho.
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Old 12th Feb 2013, 16:36
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Very good news but hopefully Aerlingus will be a bit more adventurous out of Ireland and not just consolidate their route network. A.320's are too big for many Continental routes and Aer Arann's aircraft are too small. A lot to be said for the EMB190.
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