Aer Lingus - 6

[DollarBill]

Racedo-As for loss making....................given Aer Lingus losses over last 5 years I don't think that can be used as a prerequisite as to who can fly the route.Well they have been profitable in 2010 and 2009. Current estimates are for approx 100M profit in 2012. I can't deny the losses occured in 2008 and 2009 but they were before the extensive cost reduction and streamlining program.

I have to concur with the opinion of Flybe as non-Irish. While that lable is not nice it does remain valid that Flybe do not have a loyalty and brand awareness to equal that of EI in Ireland. (Sometime I am sure FR have factored into their planning) In fact it could actually take Flybe 3 years to properly make use of those EI routes, by which time FR can swoop in and reopen them all with their multitude of B737's.

Another option could be FR waiting 2-3 years and closing the remaining 50% of EI shorthaul. Unsustainable route network, no economy of scale could be the quoted buzzwords.

[mart901]

Thank you dollar bill, beat me to it! In fact Aer Lingus is one of the few airlines in europe making profit on short haul (the very thing at stake) and given virtually everything they do originates in Ireland and they have fought back massively for the market share they now enjoy, its little wonder Ryanair want to take them over/wipe them out. If Aer Lingus is profiting and growing on its home turf and Ryanair has reduced its operations, I would question is their gain Ryanair's loss to some degree? The irony of it all is over the years Ryanair has rather noisily established itself as the the business that transformed Irish aviation and boosted passenger/tourist numbers in the process of tackling monopoly, now it wants to form its own. Nobody has managed to compete with them on Irish routes except Aer Lingus, despite no longer having state hand outs and now a much smaller concern.

[racedo]

Racedo, you're getting a little confused. Flybe is a heavily loss making regional airline with little brand recognition in Ireland. Aer Lingus is a heavily profitable airline with a strong balance sheet and enormous brand awareness. The losses of years ago are irrelevant as the business is now very different

Brand awareness in Ireland only as outside of that it pretty much doesn't exist.

Flybe are 50% family owned with IAG holding a minority shareholding

Claiming you want to ensure competition but then starting to say well it must have brand recognition in Ireland is trying to impose new hurdles.

.
To suggest that Flybe can provide the same level of competition to ryanair in the Irish market is a fallacy. And you and your boss know this. Which is fine for you as your only remit is to serve the shareholders of your company, who will benefit enormously from removing AL from the Irish market. No need to be shy about admitting this as you're only doing your job by carrying out your fiduciary duties.

As I live in Surrey and don't work for Ryanair then will ignore the rest of the personal dig because your debating points now appear to consist of Flybe is not an Irish Airline.

[i am a bee too]

aerlingus

Why iseveryoneforgetting that Seamus Brennan TD Rip ordered Aerlingus to stop flying to Stansted to let Ryanair have a London route without competitionn.. They were almost broke at the time.

[Shamrock350]

Brand awareness in Ireland only as outside of that it pretty much doesn't exist.

What exactly is your point?

The initial brand awareness point was raised in relation to FlyBe potentially taking on 40% of the Aer Lingus short haul network so whether you believe Aer Lingus brand awareness exists outside of Ireland is irrelevant. The fact is if FlyBe were to take on and operate this 40% they would have a very tough time even with the possible 3 year breathing space without the direct Ryanair competition as their brand is far weaker in Ireland and practically unknown in Europe.

So if we're going to talk about brand awareness for flights to/from Ireland (which we are), I think it's pretty clear Aer Lingus have got FlyBe beat.

Why iseveryoneforgetting that Seamus Brennan TD Rip ordered Aerlingus to stop flying to Stansted to let Ryanair have a London route without competitionn.. They were almost broke at the time.

Maybe because it's ancient history, all part of the politics back then. Sadly that doesn't stop some people bringing up the days when Aer Lingus used to rip off the travelling public (along with every other national airline) to back up their weak argument for supporting the take over.

[floss689]

It seems very obvious to me that MOL's eventual goal is to have a monopoly on the Irish market without any competition from EI or FlyBe. If he takes control, Aer Lingus will be halved over night and in 3 years time probably won't exist at all. In FlyBe, he has picked the perfect airline as there is no way they could compete with Ryanair once he can reopen overlapping routes in 3 years time. In 3 years time, (if he gets it) Flybe will be run off the all their routes by Ryanair, as they have done countless times before to other carriers. EI will be gone and the the only way in or out of Ireland will be with Ryanair. How is this good for competition? How could this be allowed to happen to a profit making?

[Skipness One Echo]

As I live in Surrey and don't work for Ryanair

Are you with Brookfield as well then?
Sorry, couldn't resist....

[Stevek]

I'm really starting to get confused I thought the idea was Ryanair would still operate the 43 overlapping routes. However, EI's routes would be given to a competitor. So FR will still operate along side FlyBe? Otherwise it makes absolutely no sense for the consumer as there'll be no competition from the outset!

[racedo]

Sure and it's from the goodness of your heart that your expend so much effort in this website doing nothing else but defending Ryanair and belittling everyone else.

Why are you so keen to make this thread one where you chucking personal stuff about ?

[racedo]

I'm really starting to get confused I thought the idea was Ryanair would still operate the 43 overlapping routes. However, EI's routes would be given to a competitor. So FR will still operate along side FlyBe? Otherwise it makes absolutely no sense for the consumer as there'll be no competition from the outset!

Whose idea ?

[pwalhx]

Racedo I do not think the last question was personal, in fact quite reasonable. If as you say you have no connection with Ryanair please could you share with us why you are so ardent in their defence and so dismissive of their competition. Nothing personal at all in that merely curious.

[Shamrock350]

So Ryanair claims Aer Lingus is "going nowhere" on the same day Etihad invite them to join their 'centre of excellence' initiative.



Also Ryanair doesn't believe in monopolies. Good one.

Ryanair not interested in monopoly, says Millar - The Irish Times - Thu, Jan 24, 2013

Etihad 'eager to increase ties with Aer Lingus'

Etihad boss Hogan 'eager to increase ties with Aer Lingus' - Irish, Business - Independent.ie

[Hangar6]

2012 interim results -- due?

Last year 28Feb saw interim results published for 2011

So fair to say we can assume same date or thereabouts for 2012 results, which neatly .... comes before the EU determination on 7 March re FR hostile takeover, profit was made no doubt avout that, also pension issue might just have moved forward in a positive agreed by all way.

So EU will have taken a very long vonsidered approach before they make a decion, IMO turning down FR but an appeal will follow for sure.

Still 2013 potentially is an even better year for EI after 3 years of well managed profit in trying times.

FR are putting forward BE as the carrier of choice for EI regional routes , recent press re BE is notpositive and contraction NOT expansion is on the cards for them.

Odd that we read FR saying how EI will have a bright future under FR, yet the first thing that will happen is early lease exits, EIR will loose routes EI will loose routes ....different messages coming from the same building

Still the next few weeks will see plenty FR noise spin and conjecture , amazing how much time and money FR are spending on what they call a small regional loss making airline with no future........

[Epsomdog]

Can Aer Lingus ever be free of this annoying little man?

I agree with your sentiments.

Do you think Aer Lingus will ever shake him off?

MOL can hardly argue that he's not been a disruptive influence over EI affairs!
I wonder what the UK competition authority will think?

[bucko]

Does anyone think that it's more than coincidence that the Commission's date for a decision has been put back to early March, reportedly the same time as the UK Competition Authority is due to make it's decision re FR's shareholding? Given the furore in the last week over the UK's future in the EU would it be politically embarrassing if the EU came to a decision that was the opposite of the Competition Authority's?

Had a read of the FR offer document for EI, have to say there is now an awful lot of contradiction between the stated plans for EI and the proposed remedies. If the deal got the green light and the remedies were carried, where is the stated short haul expansion going to go? Firstly the capacity used on the conceded routes would have to be deployed elsewhere before any expansion could take place, and secondly, as a consequence would the stated increase in flight deck/ cabin crew/engineers go with them? I can only see this resulting in a net loss of positions in Ireland unfortunately and an awful lot of redundancies or forced relocation. Factor in the huge doubt it would put over the EIR operation, the potential monopoly that might occur this along with the resultant leverage FR will have against the DAA this will be politically unpalatable for the Irish government and I would say they are actively lobbying against it.

[dublinaviator]

bucko its completely irrelevant what decision the UK Competition Authority makes because the ultimate decision lies with the European Commission and any appeals thereafter with the European Court of Justice, who have already ruled on the issue of Ryanair's stake in Aer Lingus which is what the UK CA is investigating.

And aside from being a waste of UK taxpayers money, it also sets a dangerous precedent because the UK are essentially sending out the message to other countries that it's ok to attempt to block the merging over 2 airlines in another jurisdiction simply because they overlap on some route into and out of that country. So because BMI flew to Dublin, it would have been acceptable for the Irish Competition Authority to investigate BA's takeover of BMI and attempt to block it if it found reasons to do so, even though the takeover would have limited impact on Ireland.

As things stand, the Irish government is against Ryanair's takeover of Aer Lingus. But had it been supportive of it, and the European Commission approved it, the UK Competition Authority attempting to overstep it's remit and block the takeover of 2 companies based outside it's jurisdiction could spark a massive bilateral dispute.

So to answer your question, I doubt that's why the EC extending the probe deadline.

[Meccano]

bucko its completely irrelevant what decision the UK Competition Authority makes because the ultimate decision lies with the European Commission....

The UK Court of Appeal ruled in May on the OFT’s actions and concluded that the “duty of sincere co-operation” between the UK and EU meant that it was right to hold off its scrutiny until the EU court process was at an end. But it did not deny the UK OFT's right to proceed afterward (if appropriate) to make a determination on the Ryanair holding.

....and any appeals thereafter with the European Court of Justice, who have already ruled on the issue of Ryanair's stake in Aer Lingus which is what the UK CA is investigating.

I believe they ruled that under broader EU rules that Ryanair was not required (by them) to divest, but the UK CA looks at UK specific conditions, and can indeed rule against Ryanair if it so wishes. The result of which could be forced divestment.

I would also remind you that Google and Microsoft - some of the biggest companies in the world - have lost cases in the EU Courts. So dont imagine FR cannot also.

And aside from being a waste of UK taxpayers money, it also sets a dangerous precedent because the UK are essentially sending out the message to other countries that it's ok to attempt to block the merging over 2 airlines in another jurisdiction simply because they overlap on some route into and out of that country.

And because they wish to do business in the UK while being in breach of UK consumer protection regulations.

So because BMI flew to Dublin, it would have been acceptable for the Irish Competition Authority to investigate BA's takeover of BMI and attempt to block it if it found reasons to do so, even though the takeover would have limited impact on Ireland.

I don't think it would have blocked it at all! It would simply have said don't do business in Ireland if that's your intent.

As things stand, the Irish government is against Ryanair's takeover of Aer Lingus. But had it been supportive of it, and the European Commission approved it, the UK Competition Authority attempting to overstep it's remit and block the takeover of 2 companies based outside it's jurisdiction could spark a massive bilateral dispute.

I have absolutely no doubt that all these decisions carry a political element.
Maybe if Micko was less of a mouth he'd get a better hearing.
You see, there is a price eventually for being an ass and pissing off all and sundry in positions of power.
Hubris.

[Jamie2k9]

DUB-IAD and SNN-ORD now part of UA/EI codeshare agreement.

AerLingus Begins UNITED Trans-Atlantic Codeshare Service from late-Jan 2013 | Airline Route – Worldwide Airline Route Updates

[Hangar6]

06 Feb 2013 results

2012 prelim results and JAN 2013 traffic stats due 6feb
should be interesting

see EI share price at 129......makes MIL 130 previous offer look cheap

Some much news from FR end re EI takeover attempt, getting hard to see anything other than desperation on FR side at this stage.

still only annother month of it....

[Sober Lark]

8.2% increase in revenue for 2012. Profits before exceptional items 40.7% to €69.1m. 10.8 m pax. Load 77.7%.

I don't get this Flybe Ireland and BA thing. An agreement not to compete secures competition? Worse still if they expect the EU authorities to believe it.