Aer Lingus - 6

[EI-A330-300]

The EU will now refuse thetakeover as LON-IRL market moves from 4 operators (FR EI AF and BA) to 3 operators AF FR and B A. If FR had any hope the slots would need to go to VS.

[Shamrogue]

Its shows the importance of EI

The whole crack story with EI etc just shows the strategic importance of the airline to Ireland. Heathrow despite the recent growth of EY etc is still vital as an airlink/hub to Ireland. Maintaining the connectivity is absolute. If BA or anyone finds a better use for the slot.......it's gone to new routes say "SFO" or wherever.
Obviously there is a bigger game going on in the background.

Regards

[Sober Lark]

You only have to look at BWIA to see how they undersold and were manipulated by the 'big players'. Now they have...?

[dublinaviator]

Ryanair has signed an MOU with BA to transfer up to 20 slot pairs as part of a new package of remedies to gain approval from the EC to takeover Aer Lingus:

Aer Lingus dips on Heathrow fears - The Irish Times - Mon, Dec 17, 2012

The Sunday Business Post - Ryanair seen selling key Aer Lingus routes if deal succeeds

IAG inks MOU with Ryanair | ATWOnline

As part of the MOU, BA would takeover the Dublin, Cork, and Shannon routes to Heathrow for 3-5 years and could result in up to 6 BA aircraft being based in the Republic. This would leave Aer Lingus with just 4 slot pairs at Heathrow.

I really don't see the point in this. For one, why retain 4 slot pairs? There's no way they could be used for Ireland services and offer meaningful competition to BA, and I wouldn't see the point in Aer Lingus launching long-haul flights from Heathrow, so the only obvious conclusion is that they'd be leased out to other airlines. So Ryanair is effectively offering to replace a situation where 2 airlines compete on DUB-LHR with one where BA has a monopoly on the route.

I want to support a Ryanair takeover of Aer Lingus, but this latest remedy package just sounds crazy. There's no strategy, no logic, I don't see how it benefits Aer Lingus, or the consumer for that matter.

If this is what it takes for Ryanair to get approval from the EC to takeover Aer Lingus, it's not worth it.

Originally Posted by BALHR

However I do support the sale of EI's slots at LHR (which are of a simlar number to VS at LHR), because BA would be able to lanuch new routes so they can better compete with its rivals in Europe and the Middle East

That doesn't benefit Aer Lingus, Dublin or Ireland though. Remember Dublin is competing with the likes of Heathrow, Amsterdam, and Frankfurt as well, and Aer Lingus themselves have been very successful at increasing connecting traffic from regional airports in the UK, at the expense of BA. So you can understand from an Irish perspective why you wouldn't support 20 of Aer Lingus' slot pairs being transferred over to BA, only for them to launch a raft of new routes in 3 years time at the expense of Aer Lingus and Irish airports.

[Jamie2k9]

I really don't see the point in this. For one, why retain 4 slot pairs?

They are keeping 4 slots for competition reasons only.

[EI-BUD]

FR are getting a bit carried away, they havent gotten approval yet and they are already signing agreements with BA and the article includes Flybe, why on earth would FR do anything with Flybe? What routes would BE be invited onto? LGW DUB? Given BEs declining relationship with LGW couldnt see a future in that route for them.

DUB LHR is the busiest international route in Europe. There will always be a strong case for having minimum of 10 round trips a day. It is a strong and sustainable route so wouldnt have many worries about its survival without EI. However, simply cannot see FR gaining control. In my view not the right strategic partner/parent.

Does anybody know in what way will the EU investigate, i.e will they consult with other airlines in the market to get a sense of the competitive environment? If that makes sense....

[dublinaviator]

Originally Posted by Jamie2k9

They are keeping 4 slots for competition reasons only.

There's nothing in the articles above to say there'll be any restrictions on how the remaining slots are used. And how could Aer Lingus provide any meaningful competition against BA on Ireland-Heathrow routes with just 4 slot pairs?

[Jamie2k9]

There's nothing in the articles above to say there'll be any restrictions on how the remaining slots are used. And how could Aer Lingus provide any meaningful competition against BA on Ireland-Heathrow routes with just 4 slot pairs?

I don't know but if I was part of the EC investigation team it would not look good from their point of view for BA to being given 100% control of IRL-LHR market. I see no other reason why FR would want to keep them.

[EI-BUD]

It would seem to me also that BA have clearly nailed their colours to the mast regarding the relationship between them and EI and the value that they place on it. Assuming FR do not gain approval how does this action by BA bode for the future relationship with EI???

Clearly FR could have done MOU with Virgin, but in such a case of competition authority in Ireland or UK, would FR be allowed to effectively choose the carrier or would it be like the BA surrender of slots for EDI ABZ etc where it wasnt up to BA?

[dublinaviator]

Originally Posted by EI-BUD

Clearly FR could have done MOU with Virgin, but in such a case of competition authority in Ireland or UK, would FR be allowed to effectively choose the carrier or would it be like the BA surrender of slots for EDI ABZ etc where it wasnt up to BA?

It'd be the same as it's a central company that allocates the slots. So Ryanair could have an MOU with BA to transfer the slots to them, but Virgin could end up getting them or it could be split 50/50, or who knows CityJet could bid for them.

I mean nobody predicted Aer Lingus would bid for BMI's former LHR slots when the EC first forced BA to release them as a condition of the takeover.

[Hangar6]

FR spin

Comeon folkswe all must know EVERY word you read that allegedly comes from MOL is ALWAYS to be taken with a pinch of salt

The whole series of recent articles are those of a drowning man who has spent and wasted tens of millions on a gamble that HAS failed , its laughable
that he has us even trying to guage the possible outcomes

LHR slots are the life blood of ROI aviation needs and being an Island they will be protected at all costs by Government who stillhave a significant say in any takeover...look who now is holding the EU reigns for next six months

[dublinaviator]

Originally Posted by Hangar6

LHR slots are the life blood of ROI aviation needs

The LHR slots are less relevant now than they were at the time of Aer Lingus' privatisation. The industry has completely changed, and even the Irish aviation scene has changed dramatically. Not only do Irish people have increased access to other major European hubs such as Frankfurt, but they also have the choice of the Middle Eastern hubs (Dubai and Abu Dhabi). Given the ever hardening relationship between Aer Lingus and BA recently, Aer Lingus have also made attempts to reduce their dependence on BA for feeder traffic. So I wouldn't go as far as to say LHR slots are the life blood of Irish aviation, they're important but they don't hold anywhere near the importance that they once held.

Originally Posted by Hangar6

and being an Island they will be protected at all costs by Government who stillhave a significant say in any takeover...

The government can't block the sale of slots, and have admitted as such. It's no secret that Aer Lingus have leased out a number of their LHR slots in recent years, and we've heard no objections from the government.

Originally Posted by Hangar6

look who now is holding the EU reigns for next six months

Don't see how that has any relevance or bearing on the outcome of the EC's takeover probe?

[Hangar6]

ROI LHR

Traffic is still very robust on LHR

BA came back this summer,8 round trips annouced per day, never happened
Currenty 7 and willreduce to 5 next summer on week days ,4 at weekends

Your right BA have also just discovered ROI east bound LHaul traffic now goes via desert on brand new planes at attractive prices without the need to go terminal 1 to 5 in LHR

FR bid is dead in the water and MOL is really struggling to keep the door open for his appeal on the decision.

I am not convinced politics doesnt play a part in any competition decision here and even the UK authorities are looking at FR interest in EI

however maybe I am wrong time will tell but there is a compelling need to keep one of the very few profitable shorthaul airlines in Europe on one of the busiest routes in order to compete with FR

BA cannot compete on shorthaul to ROI with FR , EI can and this competition has to be protected and I believe EU will not want to see take away the healthy competion between two profitable Iirsh airlines .

time will tell ,

[ayroplain]

Originally Posted by Hangar6

I am not convinced politics doesn't play a part in any competition decision here and even the UK authorities are looking at FR interest in EI

You have hit the nail on the head here. No matter if everything re the takeover was 100% OK it would not happen. FR is anti-Establishment and a successful bid would signal a victory so the Establishment simply won't allow it to happen. End of.

[BALHR]

EI has way more slots at LHR than VS, they're the 3rd biggest holder of slots there. This is because EI operate high frequency flights to and from LHR where as VS operate long haul flights.

http://www.acl-uk.org/UserFiles/File...l%20Report.pdf

According to this both EI and VS have 304 slot pairs (or 3.3%) for the Winter 2012/2013 season

However, VS operates far more destinations that EI does about of LHR

Easyjet does not fly to Ireland, and Flybe do not fly to any London airport from Ireland either.

Easyjet and Flybe operate on the London-Belfast route, remember when we are dealing with Ireland, we are counting both the ROI and NI

If the slots were sold to BA you can bet that they won't be used for IRE-LHR routes as BA would find more profitable use for them on Long haul routes.

When BA bought BMI, they gained their LHR-DUB/BHD routes, now BA could have scrapped those routes (like BMI's routes to some destinations), but they did not, even if they scrap all the ex-EI LHR routes 9and they are likely to), they will still operate from LHR to Belfast and Dublin

The EU will now refuse thetakeover as LON-IRL market moves from 4 operators (FR EI AF and BA) to 3 operators AF FR and B A. If FR had any hope the slots would need to go to VS.

Flybe, Easyjet and Aer Lingus Regional operate on the LON-IRE routes as well, make that 6 (Cityjet has a uncertain future)

Forget VS buying those slots however, they biggest concern for a state is who is now going to operate LHR-MAN/EDI/ABZ and why would DL allow VS to buy those slots anyway when they serve DUB themselves?

If anything, this just reinforces the fact that EI cannot be sold to FR as Ireland would lose it's LHR connections

BA is still operating from LHR to Dublin and Belfast, those routes came from BMI, if they did not want to operate those route, then they would have been withdrawn, but they have not, so if BA buys EI's LHRs slots, Ireland will still have connections to LHR

There are many other reasons why FR should not buy EI however...

[Aerlingus231]

BA are just sitting on those slots, mark my words within the next 18-24 months BA will certainly be out of DUB and most likely out of BHD as well.

[Hangar6]

Slot sitting

Agreed BA have already gone from 8 announced to Dublin, only ever got to 7 and now down to 5 from S13

Easy and FLYBE do not fly to Ireland , they are domestic operators to BFS BHD...Easy did try once but were chased off by FR pretty well overnight , and that same scenario will happen again once FR get EI, the alleged replacemnt carriers will get a free run for a while , maybe even a season then they will be undercut and scheule matched until they leave, as in GO BUZZ and currently Whizz on CorkPoland

BA will never make money shorthaul and they just need feed for Longhaul ex ireland ,,,, thats the bit outside the UK, ....

BUT

Any brief look at Longhaul ex IRELAND tells you ba are finsihed,

Emirates Etihad and now Turkish have taken the longhaul traffic South and East and the 10-14 flights a day westbound to USA take that longhaul slice.

When BA left Ireland 20 years ago they had a Longhaul product ex IRELAND

However its moved now to the new hubs , new planes, lower fare, less termianl swaps etc.

IRELAND is tiny but supports Etihad x10 a week to go 12 from S13, 6x777 and 6x330
Emirates 777 X7 a week soon to go 14 daily
Turkish daily soon to go 10 a week 737-900

Ba will re visit code share with EI in IRELAND , not sure about domestic UK BHD MAN ABZ EDI but deffinitley IRELAND

But their feed has gone, maybe they dont need it as certainly their capapcity cut backs reflect this.

[EI-BUD]

When BA bought BMI, they gained their LHR-DUB/BHD routes, now BA could have scrapped those routes (like BMI's routes to some destinations), but they did not, even if they scrap all the ex-EI LHR routes 9and they are likely to), they will still operate from LHR to Belfast and Dublin

BALHR, you need to understand that particularly in the case of domestic routes, BA has had to convince competition authority that they will support the regions of the UK and whether they wanted to do Belfast or not, they have to show that their take over of bmi will not be detrimental to domestic flying, similar reason why they have launched LBA LHR, a route that bmi axed years ago in favour of longer routes.

BA in Dublin, 8 a day from the outset was ambitious. Clearly slot holding. I dont see BA long term in DUB, though they will watch with interest what the outcome of FR takeover of EI is on that one.

Easyjet and Flybe operate on the London-Belfast route, remember when we are dealing with Ireland, we are counting both the ROI and NI

Who is 'we', I think readers in general with an interest in Ireland or UK aviation read this they understood the writer meant Ireland meaning the Republic of Ireland as most would know that easyJet do fly to Northern Ireland already.

EI-BUD

[BALHR]

I really don't see the point in this. For one, why retain 4 slot pairs? There's no way they could be used for Ireland services and offer meaningful competition to BA, and I wouldn't see the point in Aer Lingus launching long-haul flights from Heathrow, so the only obvious conclusion is that they'd be leased out to other airlines. So Ryanair is effectively offering to replace a situation where 2 airlines compete on DUB-LHR with one where BA has a monopoly on the route.

The reason they are retainng 4 slot pairs is for competition reasons, personally I think they will discontinue EI's services to LHR and then sell the remaining 4 slot pairs to BA

BA will not have a monopoly on LON-IRE (not LHR-IRE, there are several airports in LON), because Easyjet, Flybe and Ryanair thenselves will be competing on those routes

Remember what happened when Ryanair took over Buzz (the remains of Air UK that where not transfered to KLM), they will do the same to EI, and they have already starting the process...

However, simply cannot see FR gaining control. In my view not the right strategic partner/parent.

I agree, they have very diffrent business models, but they refuse to give up, I feel that they are only interested in EI as they where in Buzz, certain valueable assets that would work for them and disposing the rest

However EI should sell their LHR slots to BA, even if the takeover falls though (they can still codeshare on BA's LHR-DUB flight for example)

And how could Aer Lingus provide any meaningful competition against BA on Ireland-Heathrow routes with just 4 slot pairs?

EI's LHR-DUB route will shut down and those last 4 slots will also go to BA, without any comptition issues

I don't know but if I was part of the EC investigation team it would not look good from their point of view for BA to being given 100% control of IRL-LHR market. I see no other reason why FR would want to keep them.

If I was part of the EC team, then I would see that the LON-IRE (LHR-IRE is too narrowly focused) is still competitve with several operators (not just BA and FR)

It would seem to me also that BA have clearly nailed their colours to the mast regarding the relationship between them and EI and the value that they place on it. Assuming FR do not gain approval how does this action by BA bode for the future relationship with EI???

The BA-EI alliance has been weakening for the past 10 years at least (EI leaving OW for example) the latest being that BA cotinuing to operate the EX-BD LHR-DUB/BHD routes

BA should buy EI's LHR slots whatever happens, the is a lack of space at LHR for a start to lanuch new flights to compete with its rivals

Clearly FR could have done MOU with Virgin, but in such a case of competition authority in Ireland or UK, would FR be allowed to effectively choose the carrier or would it be like the BA surrender of slots for EDI ABZ etc where it wasnt up to BA?

It has been suggested that FR might do a deal with VS, but now it looks unlikely, I doubt if DL is interested in VS operating LHR-DUB (and LHR-MAM/EDI/ABZ for that matter), when they operate direct flights to Dublin from ATL and JFK)

It'd be the same as it's a central company that allocates the slots. So Ryanair could have an MOU with BA to transfer the slots to them, but Virgin could end up getting them or it could be split 50/50, or who knows CityJet could bid for them.

If Virgin is allowed by DL to operate LHR-IRE (unlikely), then they would get the 4 slot pairs FR is keeping (for now), CityJet already operate LCY-DUB, so no chance of them bidding (the bigger question should be would BA CityFlyer buy the airline...)

Comeon folkswe all must know EVERY word you read that allegedly comes from MOL is ALWAYS to be taken with a pinch of salt

The whole series of recent articles are those of a drowning man who has spent and wasted tens of millions on a gamble that HAS failed , its laughable
that he has us even trying to guage the possible outcomes

Unlike most his statements, this is a firm plan and not one of his idiotic comments

While I agree that MOL/FR is foolish to buy EI, they refuse to give up, honestly I expect it to go on and on until either they are sucessful or a "white knight" bidder emerges (the best one would be IAG)

LHR slots are the life blood of ROI aviation needs and being an Island they will be protected at all costs by Government who stillhave a significant say in any takeover...look who now is holding the EU reigns for next six months

If they could not prevent the EU forcing austerity on them, I doubt they can stop this entirely, FR/MOL are stubborn people, otherwise this would have died out long ago...

[globetrotter79]

The reason they are retainng 4 slot pairs is for competition reasons, personally I think they will discontinue EI's services to LHR and then sell the remaining 4 slot pairs to BA

In fact, I understand that the reason there are 4 LHR slot pairs excluded from the "agreement" is that these slots don't actually belong to EI - they are leased to EI by VS and are presently used to cover the 3x daily SNN-LHR and one of the daily DUB-LHR routings. As such, the assumption is that they will be returned to VS at some point in time.