Aer Lingus - 6
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EI
It will be UA, two slot pairs in Lhr to UA
EI take over WAS EWR as 350 S arrive ex Roi UK inc BFS
Mol will smile if he only looses say 200mill on share disposal , maybe he is easy
Pleased but it'll be a while yet , which is a shame normally he is on the ball !
EI take over WAS EWR as 350 S arrive ex Roi UK inc BFS
Mol will smile if he only looses say 200mill on share disposal , maybe he is easy
Pleased but it'll be a while yet , which is a shame normally he is on the ball !
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I think IAG would only be interested if they are confident they could secure near full control. IAG went out of its way to gain near full ownership of Vueling and wasn't satisfied with getting 90%+.
Aside from IAG, I think EY would be interested in increasing its stake to 49%. Air France KLM and Lufthansa can be ruled out.
Aside from IAG, I think EY would be interested in increasing its stake to 49%. Air France KLM and Lufthansa can be ruled out.
Mol will smile if he only looses say 200mill on share disposal , maybe he is easy
Pleased but it'll be a while yet , which is a shame normally he is on the ball !
Pleased but it'll be a while yet , which is a shame normally he is on the ball !
Therefore any sale impact just means lots of cash in.
Average share price FR bought at was €2.52 and spent €392M (2007 annual report)
Your figure of €200 Million loss v original would be right IF in the event of a takeover the price was at €1.24 (today €1.49). (Merger is between 2 equal parties........IF it was IAG / EI it is a takeover.)
At that price (€1.24) FR would get €192 Million in cash.......at €1.49 (closing price today) FR would get €232 Million..........assumming a takeover may potentially add a bit to share price then every 1 cent increase in price give FR approx €1.5 Million.
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I love your theory. He lost his shirt on the shares but because he has booked the loss already you think of it as a positive that the cash will be coming in. Interesting view. You must be in PR for FR.
Also WW is no friend of AL. He showed his true colours wanting to join in the MOL "remedies package" bandwagon. I can't see IAG wanting a merger, there is no point as WW will still be plotting how to strip AL of the slots and get it without the burden of working through the pension issues etc.
From a personal career perspective and assuming that we were "tuped" like the BMI folks it would be a great deal for me. BA staff travel is the best in the world. Access to big comfy seats. Short haul commands much quicker than AL or the option of sticking it out on the wide body fleet for a few years more and seeing the world. It would get me out of the Irish tax system which would fill me with no end of joy. But life doesn't tend to work out like that unfortunately.
Also WW is no friend of AL. He showed his true colours wanting to join in the MOL "remedies package" bandwagon. I can't see IAG wanting a merger, there is no point as WW will still be plotting how to strip AL of the slots and get it without the burden of working through the pension issues etc.
From a personal career perspective and assuming that we were "tuped" like the BMI folks it would be a great deal for me. BA staff travel is the best in the world. Access to big comfy seats. Short haul commands much quicker than AL or the option of sticking it out on the wide body fleet for a few years more and seeing the world. It would get me out of the Irish tax system which would fill me with no end of joy. But life doesn't tend to work out like that unfortunately.
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Aer Lingus reportedly came close to a deal with Virgin Atlantic before Delta stepped in, does this not give you guys ranting on about the BA (IAG) merger theory any inkling that you could indeed be off the mark? which tbh I've been hearing for years. There's three groups I believe Aer Lingus will stay clear of, Ryanair (guaranteed), IAG and Air France/KLM. Nobody seems to be mentioning Lufthansa Group and carriers in the US. JetBlue/United spring to mind.
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jetBlue and United could not 'merge' with EI in the traditional sense. They could own up to 49% of the airline, but no more, same with Ethiad or any non-EU carrier. B6 have already discounted interest in mergers, I believe. UA are going through integration of UA into CO at the moment, so can't see them being too interested either.
LH group - not sure how interested they would be in a heavily Leisure/VFR business on the periphery of Europe, their experinece with bmi would suggest they have little interest or appetite in this market. They canned almost all the charter flying, all the long-haul from MAN, the point-to-point form LHR and so-on. If it's a German airline you are after AirBerlin would be more likely, in their guise as Ethiad's European arm.
LH group - not sure how interested they would be in a heavily Leisure/VFR business on the periphery of Europe, their experinece with bmi would suggest they have little interest or appetite in this market. They canned almost all the charter flying, all the long-haul from MAN, the point-to-point form LHR and so-on. If it's a German airline you are after AirBerlin would be more likely, in their guise as Ethiad's European arm.
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Willie Walsh has already ruled out any interest in Aer Lingus based on Ryanair's shareholding. Given that one of the preconditions mentioned for a possible merger was accepting the current share structure, I can't see it being IAG. And even if it were I would see it as a hostile takeover given a successful Dublin hub is not in BAs interest and they will likely seek to funnel traffic lost to Aer Lingus Regional back through LHR.
If I had to put money on it, I'd say it was FlyBe (despite their backdoor deal with Ryanair. If anything it showed their expression of interest in a merger.)
If I had to put money on it, I'd say it was FlyBe (despite their backdoor deal with Ryanair. If anything it showed their expression of interest in a merger.)
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They could own up to 49% of the airline, but no more, same with Ethiad or any non-EU carrier. B6 have already discounted interest in mergers, I believe. UA are going through integration of UA into CO at the moment, so can't see them being too interested either.
their experinece with bmi would suggest they have little interest or appetite in this market.
Report from RTÉ, 17th Sept 2013
IAG sees opportunities outside of Europe - RTÉ News
JAS
"We don't see anything attractive to buy or merge with in Europe at the moment," Willie Walsh, IAG's CEO, told the World Low Cost Airlines Congress in London today.
JAS
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It would be very hard to sell any link up with IAG, AF/KLM or Lufthansa as a merger. There may be some possibility with one of Lufthansa's subsidiaries though.
It's hard to see who would be a suitable merger partner. You'd assume that there would would be no desire to link up with an airline that is loss-making or has free-cash problems. You'd also want to see route networks that compliment each other and the potential for savings on admin and maintenance services.
Those conditions have me frawing a blank. SAS and Finnair look like the closest, but I really can't see any route synergies there.
It's hard to see who would be a suitable merger partner. You'd assume that there would would be no desire to link up with an airline that is loss-making or has free-cash problems. You'd also want to see route networks that compliment each other and the potential for savings on admin and maintenance services.
Those conditions have me frawing a blank. SAS and Finnair look like the closest, but I really can't see any route synergies there.
I love your theory. He lost his shirt on the shares but because he has booked the loss already you think of it as a positive that the cash will be coming in. Interesting view. You must be in PR for FR.
Cash spent 6-7 years ago so any money received by Ryanair now is a big plus or do you think a potential of cash of couple of hundred million € coming in to any business is negative ?
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It also seems to be the case Aer Lingus continues to overbook flights by 10% according to the mirror. Couple bumped from flight by Aer Lingus and sent to wrong city - Irish Mirror Online
It would be very hard to sell any link up with IAG, AF/KLM or Lufthansa as a merger. There may be some possibility with one of Lufthansa's subsidiaries though.
It's hard to see who would be a suitable merger partner. You'd assume that there would would be no desire to link up with an airline that is loss-making or has free-cash problems. You'd also want to see route networks that compliment each other and the potential for savings on admin and maintenance services.
Those conditions have me frawing a blank. SAS and Finnair look like the closest, but I really can't see any route synergies there.
It's hard to see who would be a suitable merger partner. You'd assume that there would would be no desire to link up with an airline that is loss-making or has free-cash problems. You'd also want to see route networks that compliment each other and the potential for savings on admin and maintenance services.
Those conditions have me frawing a blank. SAS and Finnair look like the closest, but I really can't see any route synergies there.
EY will NOT be allowed buy 49% nor anybody else will be allowed to hold just 49%. Stock Exchange takeover rules would require them to bid for the whole company and they can only own 49.9%.
The stock exchange reason behind this is to prevent someone owning 49.99% and then having someone else owning .02% and holding overall control of a company while destroying the investment of other shareholders.
Virgin was different as it was NOT listed on any Stock Exchange.
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It also seems to be the case Aer Lingus continues to overbook flights by 10% according to the mirror. Couple bumped from flight by Aer Lingus and sent to wrong city - Irish Mirror Online
I don't think they 10% overbook but on all sun routes passengers don't bother turning up for flights and DUB-AGP has lots of capacity available most of the time. On this day 2 passengers were not able to fly so if that was the A330 flight then 324 would of being booked and 322 able to fly. 30 more passengers would need to be left behind to overbook by 10%. And the A321 does most evening flights and 19 more passengers wouldn't of being able to fly.
Wifi actually launched yesterday, 10 euro per hour in economy class.
Last edited by j636; 17th Sep 2013 at 17:58.
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Jack,
I've keenly followed bmi for many years. You seem to forget that LH had a minority holding and seats on the board in bmi since 1999. The condition of bmi could have been absolutely no surprise to LH, but they absolutely did not want the airline at the time it was forced on them by Bishop, to the point of an out-of-court settlement.
Non-EU "merger" partners are unlikely, due to regulatory requirements. There aren't a lot of likey EU partners. flyBe has a market value in the region of GBP 68 million. Hardly a financial merger, more a buy-out, although operationally much more so. But what does flyBe add to the EI network? No connectivity with DUB, no relaibly profitable UK operations, no strong, reliable brand to market.
I've keenly followed bmi for many years. You seem to forget that LH had a minority holding and seats on the board in bmi since 1999. The condition of bmi could have been absolutely no surprise to LH, but they absolutely did not want the airline at the time it was forced on them by Bishop, to the point of an out-of-court settlement.
Non-EU "merger" partners are unlikely, due to regulatory requirements. There aren't a lot of likey EU partners. flyBe has a market value in the region of GBP 68 million. Hardly a financial merger, more a buy-out, although operationally much more so. But what does flyBe add to the EI network? No connectivity with DUB, no relaibly profitable UK operations, no strong, reliable brand to market.
Turkish was mentioned previously too I think. Could work for Europe with westbound pax via DUB and eastbound via IST.
Why would they seek a minority shareholding ?
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I've keenly followed bmi for many years. You seem to forget that LH had a minority holding and seats on the board in bmi since 1999. The condition of bmi could have been absolutely no surprise to LH, but they absolutely did not want the airline at the time it was forced on them by Bishop, to the point of an out-of-court settlement.
As you say they had a minority holding when Sir Michael Bishop was calling the shots, Lufthansa aren't going to have little interest in an airline which at that time were what the second largest slot carrier in LHR after the 2009 merger? It's a case of highly overpaid staff working no where near enough hours and a cost base which made them uncompetitive - And it hurts me to say that because the actual staff at bmi where some of the best in the industry. It takes time to turnaround that sort of airline which had lost £157m in the year before the merger with LH Group. And had estimated losses of an estimated £320m in just 3 years (by 2010). Also bmibaby was losing £25m a year and we weren't informed about how bmi regional was doing. If you compare with Aer Lingus, they are in the top 10 airline bracket when it comes to profitability, I believe they had margins of over 7% in 2010 and they've improved significantly financially-wise since then. They are also close to a deal on the pension problem which seems the last problem for them after the Ryanair shareholding which seems to be pretty much sorted.
My point is don't rule out airlines when you're comparing other mergers which are nowhere near alike.