Aer Lingus - 6

[DollarBill]

Someone asked about EI handling EY from November......seems to be on the money. Looks like it is happening.

Re EI hire-ins......peak season seems to be over so hopefully no more Titan subs. Mueller confirmed to some staff about a month ago that they fecked up the staff numbers and that sick leave levels were not higher than normal.
They have the short term lease of EI-FCC to cover fleet issues, and the short term contract F/O's to cover Flight deck isues. However they halted cabin crew recruitment in May.....then discovered that they were well off on the estimated numbers required.

[EI-A330-300]

Flat bed seats will be offered to business passengers from 2015 while EI are unlikely to expand Eastbound from DUB as competition is high and it likely won't be profitable. Increased frequency will come before new routes.

[EI-A330-300]

EI have announced a profit revision to 60 million for the year, slightly down on last year saying that it won't be able to recover after a drop in bookings in July due to the good weather. Capacity to be cut by around 3%.

[EISNN]

nothing to do with daily Titan hire ins so?

[EI-A330-300]

Indeed but also yield on SH was down around 4% in August, when we know Septembers average yield on SH I think we will see why they have issued the warning. Overall only a very small revision and nothing much to worry about.

[racedo]

Indeed but also yield on SH was down around 4% in August, when we know Septembers average yield on SH I think we will see why they have issued the warning. Overall only a very small revision and nothing much to worry about.

Interesting that FR called this on their business and everybody claiming they got it wrong.

Small revision in numbers but a bad winter on T/A could make a huge impact v quickly.

[Hangar6]

W14

Good to see extra 4 Boston r.trips for the winter, EI must be doing something very right on USA routes as DL takin an 8 week ATL break for the first time , advance bookings very strong but Uk market is not so hot, up on last year , BA reductions will help of course but all those soccer and rugby fans are saving their money it seems, tough times ahead for sure.
EIR got their fourth new ATR yesterday and B757 due in SNn in Dec,
Wasn't MUeller smart to get that A330 contract for Novair this winter , steady hands these days.

[EI-A330-300]

Racedo

Back in July I was the first or one of the first to say that airlines would issue profit warnings due to the good weather. Ryanair and Aer Lingus were first but they won't be the last.


T/a is doing well and ahead of last year but a little weak, it would take a lot before it starts making any sort of losses.

[isayoldchap]

There is no doubt that the good weather this summer has impacted on all airlines, however let's examine Aer Lingus a little closer. Hire in bill running somewhere between 5 & 10 million euros due to messing up basic man power requirements over the busy months. Also it would be interesting to know how the Virgin Red side show is performing, I believe the penalising nature of the contract signed with Virgin is horrendous . One minute late pushing back off stand = €€€ in fines to Aer Lingus.

Somebody sanctioned all of this , I wonder will there be accountability ...

[ryan2000]

The old saying about never put all your eggs in one basket holds through for airlines as well. Many of them have been putting more and more of them in the bucket and spade basket in recent years and this leaves them very vulnerable when we do get a good Summer. People behave very irrationally when it comes to weather and will probably be in optimistic mood about another fine Summer next year.

[mart901]

If people are having staycations due to good weather it doesn't matter where a/c are heading, people are staying put - that's the issue. The reason EI, FR and others have focused on bucket and spade routes is they perform, and research points to the fact that during austere economic conditions people trim off the slightly more whimsical city breaks but keep that one main summer holiday. As aviation enthusiasts we may find looking at route maps that are concentrated round Spain etc boring but in the end it works, and without profit there is little to keep airlines afloat these days.

[MCDU2]

My finger in the air would indicate that approximately a third of the 9m downward revision was cash out the door to Titan. The silence is deafening from management whenever the question is put to them as to the quantum. Also as to if any heads will roll.

[EI-A330-300]

Aer Lingus still in talks about merger, says Mueller - Independent.ie

A key note in the article.

Mr Mueller told an Austrian aviation journal this week that the talks remain ongoing. He refused to be drawn on the negotiations but said a potential partner would have to carefully consider their involvement with Aer Lingus when Ryaniar retains a near 30pc stake in its smaller rival.

[EI-BUD]

Mr Mueller said that a merger with another airline would be driven by
complementary markets and that its slots could also be a catalyst. Aer Lingus
controls valuable takeoff and landing slots at Heathrow.

IAG is written all over this in my view. I have always questioned BA's decision to increase DUB LHR to 8 daily. Not saying they cannot make a go of this, but given the sheer lack of slots for long haul and new long haul aircraft coming on stream at a rate of 2 per month. Come next March the demand for slots could be quite different to now.

I see EI being exclusive on DUB and BHD to LHR with EI employing much larger aircraft, 330 on morning serivces ex DUB and possibly 321 ex BHD. BA exiting DUB and BHD would see them gain up to 15 daily slots, though EI would probably need an extra 3 daily BHD slots.

If BE had not signalled exit on LGW, I was not holding out hope for EI at BHD. But given that EI will have this route exclusively and the Euro routes are doing great, I can see EI being the sole carrier.

This probably sounds far fetched, but from my perspective BA is the natural partner for EI, and BA's long haul fleet plans and long haul aspiraitons make this credible. WW has said pension deficit puts them off EI, but question is what is the value of up to 15 prime slots ex LHR over the long term without cutting passenger numbers on Island of Ireland - London flights???

[Skipness One Echo]

Not saying they cannot make a go of this, but given the sheer lack of slots for long haul and new long haul aircraft coming on stream at a rate of 2 per month. Come next March the demand for slots could be quite different to now.

It's not a net gain of two a month, the B763s and older B744s are getting parked as the B788s and the A388s arrive. Chengdu and Austin are the only new routes for 2014 thus far. I think if BA want to serve the Irish market, it's important to have the BA product and presence in place. They already co-habitate with close partners Finnair and Iberia in Europe, I don't see BA's customer base asking for an Aer Lingus monopoly out of LHR to DUB/BHD.

[CCR]

If BA were to take over Aer Lingus, that would put an end to their expansion of long haul services from Dublin, no matter was their PR people will say.

[Just a spotter]

IMHO, from a purely business perspective, EI offers nothing to IAG other than the Heathrow slots. Also only two airlines currently offer DUB-LHR services and from a completion perspective allowing them to merge would be just as anti-competivie as a take over of EI by FR.

The DUB-LHR service is seen as strategic for economic growth by successive Irish governments so I can't see any arrangement that threatens the capacity as being considered or allowed. Equally, I suspect the unions would be very worried by any IAG approach with the possibility of job losses as admin functions get shifted from DUB to lower cost centralised IAG facilities in the UK or Spain.

Operators from outside the EU might offer a better fit and deeper pockets.

JAS

[j636]

If I was a betting person I think a possible merger will be outside Europe and not EY. It won't be BA. I would look more towards the US side.

[EI-BUD]

I couldnt see IAGs involvement putting an end to TA expansion, as the void would be filled quickly by US carriers. Moreover, there are opportunities to grow interlining traffic ex Europe, from many airports that BA do not provide service to as well as from some UK airports.

EI offers nothing to IAG other than the Heathrow slots.

JAS this is precisely what I am saying, heathrow slots, not those of EI, but their own slots, releasing 8 daily slot pairs to the BA network could result in 8 new long haul routes as a daily frequency which is a serious expansion. Depressing traffic on Dublin USA would also drive demand for more slots for LHR DUB....

Watch this space.

[racedo]

IMHO, from a purely business perspective, EI offers nothing to IAG other than the Heathrow slots. Also only two airlines currently offer DUB-LHR services and from a completion perspective allowing them to merge would be just as anti-competivie as a take over of EI by FR.

But you forget that for EI its NOT FR so its acceptable and isn't WW one of their own so they will say its safe in his hands .......................never mind that Cardiff easily accommodates all heavy maintenance and admin functions can be anywhere.

Mind you I can see Ryanair selling on the shares to IAG relatively easily and reckon MO'L will have a smile doing so as well.