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Aer Lingus - 6

Old 31st Jul 2014, 18:21
  #2241 (permalink)  
 
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From the recent results it seems that the TA traffic is 50% non connecting, 30% Europe to EI US destinations and vice versa and 20% US connections. Adding a new destination kind of needs to be able to match that profile. EI will have data on which US cities people are booking to/from Dublin so will have a good idea on which city would work best, I think Texas and Flirida are the most likely. One risk is that a new destination may move traffic from other US routes/ connections but Toronto and San Fran doesn't seem to have had an impact.

If I had to guess I would say two more destinations will be announced in the next 8 weeks.
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Old 31st Jul 2014, 22:41
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Absolutely agree with VanBosh, EI will be mindful of what the data says in terms of where people are actually going, the most popular and profitable final destinations will be natural choices. I'd also suggest that EI need to be able to provide connectivity for the passengers who want to fly point to point especially to the most popular destinations like Boston New York etc. freeing up capacity on these routes ( ie by drawing pax to direct services) will allow them to also grow that business .

I'd expect new destinations could be chosen from the existing bases of Jet Blue or United. Is Montreal a possibility, they've operated there before, maybe be a suitable route for Boeing 757?
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Old 31st Jul 2014, 23:30
  #2243 (permalink)  
 
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I'd expect new destinations could be chosen from the existing bases of Jet Blue or United. Is Montreal a possibility, they've operated there before, maybe be a suitable route for Boeing 757?
No. There will be two new destinations, one in Texas and the other in Florida. Both outside the hubs of B6/UA and both of the new routes will more than likely mean a new codeshare.
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Old 1st Aug 2014, 00:56
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Montreal

I'm sure everyone remembers the rumours that were doing the rounds last summer about 2x A320s being geared up to provide a Halifax (NS) service, was that ever really going to take off, or just hearsay?

I would have thought that a Montreal service would have been more realistic had the extra fuel tanks been fitted. Better still try to get an un-modified A319-111, as that can just about do DUB-YUL according the specs sheet. So, like EI-BUD I am curious as to whether or not that route will be considered.

As for the new codeshare, I'm going to assume it's an Etihad codeshare.
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Old 1st Aug 2014, 05:40
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It would sound risky to me to employ a 330 on a route to the US where there was limited onward connectivity with a code share partner, though I realise that the respective airlines may have many routes from the new destinations even if not a hub for them . Newark springs to mind, at the time that it was axed it was due to a lack of onward connections, clearly at time they were working closely with UA.
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Old 1st Aug 2014, 07:40
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Maybe Miami and Dallas with AA connections at both.
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Old 1st Aug 2014, 18:12
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Houston and Miami have huge connectivity to South America with AA, and the Carribean through MIA
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Old 3rd Aug 2014, 21:42
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Halifax is going ahead. Will find out the details later this week. But it will be a mini bus of some variety. Either the ex Iberia 320s that we're originally etops fitted or else new ships - possibly etops 319s.
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Old 3rd Aug 2014, 21:50
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I really think EI made a big mistake moving from BFS to BHD
They cut a dozen routes and ended up in direct competition with BA on LHR and etops a320 would have been the perfect size aircrwft to start Halifax from belfast as there is clearly a demand for a Canadian route from the north
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Old 3rd Aug 2014, 22:44
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This Belfast deserves more and all this is so tiring now. DUB is Aer Lingus' main Hub, there not going to be launching a Halifax route from Belfast with none from Dublin, how would that even make sense with the amount of feed potential at home? Airlines are not charities. And FYI, BHD against BFS has been working at lot better through yields and margins for EI.
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Old 4th Aug 2014, 02:55
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Completely agree with Jack above. EI are a DUB based airline. With the M1/M6/M7/M8 there isn't a hope of them launching a service from one of the Island's "regional" airports that doesn't already operate from DUB.

Because of the new motorway network, DUB is going to eat everyone else's longhaul lunch on this Island. BFS/BHD and ORK will be able to sustain their services to the UK and major Euro hubs and cities, SNN will have it's narrowbody links to the states, but beyond that it's all DUB now
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Old 4th Aug 2014, 02:58
  #2252 (permalink)  
 
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Jack1985,
I totally agree here. Aer Lingus has competitive advantage with its transatlantic business through Dublin. This will sustain the airline. Now more than ever they need to be continually developing the connectivity ex DUB as FR is intensifying competition on all of Aer Lingus' European routes.

The potential is enormous. You only need to look at EK and DXB to get a flavour of what could be achieved . However, I fear DUB may not have the required terminal make up for EI to grow at any significant pace.
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Old 4th Aug 2014, 15:38
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WRT a Belfast link to Canada ... there's about 3 million Canadians who claim Northern Irish heritage. On the business side, the Canadian High Commissioner to the UK has been calling for a direct link between Belfast and Canada for some time, mentioning that there are about a dozen or so Canadian companies with a presence in Northern Ireland.

JAS
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Old 4th Aug 2014, 16:59
  #2254 (permalink)  
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Within 1km of where I'm sitting in Cork Airport, there are half a dozen US companies (Amazon, Marriott, Bank of New York, Avery Dennison, IBM, Red Hat).

That list doesn't include the major US employers around the Cork area (Apple, EMC, Boston Scientific, VMWare, Pfizer) and a whole host of smaller US presence. Yet there's never a sniff of a US route from Cork.

It's no surprise really. So many employees end up on flights from Shannon and the rest connect via Heathrow and Amsterdam, so there's no benefit for Aer Lingus. Any other airline needs to look at how much profit they can actually make and whether Aer Lingus would respond if they launched a US route.

The same applies to a route to Canada Northern Ireland. Airlines will take a cold look at potential profit and how that balances with the risks involved and shy away from it.
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Old 4th Aug 2014, 18:12
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Another point is that flying to Halifax from BHD would be prohibitively expensive seeing as the UK air passenger duty just rapes the holidaymaker of their hard earned cash, such to the extent that on taxation alone, you'll still be financially better off driving the 100 or so miles from Belfast to Dublin, many people do this already. If say you're travelling as a family of four, (69x4 = insanity (276)).

I'm surprised that the Halifax service is taking off, but nevertheless I do wish all involved in it the very best of luck. It'll be very interesting to see what happens with this route and it's 320s (as alluded to originally). A question for MCDU2, are the plans being publicly unveiled this week or internally for the time being?

Thanks,
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Old 4th Aug 2014, 18:32
  #2256 (permalink)  
 
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To all the recent posts, re Cork and indeed Belfast justification for transatlantic service, the issue is not that anyone is denying these could be successful. Dublin as a hub is a much better investment for EI not only does it offer good connectivity but it can support the EI network across Europe , hence leaving EI less dependent on the point to point traffic.

This scenario where what may seem like credible routes and often routes that once were successful eg Belfast Toronto, don't get another chance is a component of today's reducing number of airlines. Fewer airlines chasing better returns become extremely selective where they invest their assets. Profitable is not enough, it's about what market can deliver the most return ...
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Old 4th Aug 2014, 18:38
  #2257 (permalink)  
 
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Another point is that flying to Halifax from BHD would be prohibitively expensive seeing as the UK air passenger duty just rapes the holidaymaker of their hard earned cash, such to the extent that on taxation alone, you'll still be financially better off driving the 100 or so miles from Belfast to Dublin, many people do this already. If say you're travelling as a family of four, (69x4 = insanity (276)).
Does Halifax not qualify for the reduction? Its only (I think) 12 per person on the Newark flight from BFS. I think these things are measured from london so maybe that would help Halifax?
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Old 4th Aug 2014, 18:44
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APD is a moot point because it's not chargeable on direct long haul flights from Northern Ireland. The UA flight to EWR is the only current qualifying flight.
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Old 4th Aug 2014, 18:54
  #2259 (permalink)  
 
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I never heard about the special reduction (I'll have to read into it), anyhow I checked the ADP thing on HMRC, and then checked it against WebFlyer Mile Calculator and it's well within the 2001-4000 mile thing, I think it's really quite insane, I checked Halifax from LHR and it appears not to be exempt from the excessive ADP.

Last edited by Dontgothere; 4th Aug 2014 at 18:58. Reason: Found out Halifax isn't exempt.
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Old 4th Aug 2014, 22:21
  #2260 (permalink)  
 
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I was just thinking about EI's long haul fleet needs going forward and in particular, EI's interest in the new A330 Neo, which CM has praised as a very interesting aircraft.

Is it correct, as I assume, that the A330-900Neo will effectively be a warmed over version of the current A330-300? If EI were (as some have suggested) to replace its current A350-900 Regional order with the A339, won't that effectively mean that on EI's core and busiest t/a routes, DUB-BOS, JFK and ORD, that there will be no capacity increase for over twenty years; the A330-300/A330-900 having operated the route for the past twenty years and then, for the foreseeable future?

What would shareholders (and in particular, the govt) make of this. I say "particularly the govt" because of course, it also wears the hat of tourism promotion and increasing numbers. I would think it would be at least disappointed (at worst apoplectic).

Given the govt's stated aim to award more fifth freedom routes, would it not also be looking at alternatives to grow these markets? (Emirates?). Also, from EI's own perspective, given the success of the Dublin hub, I wonder if EI would be restricting its own growth potential; increasing pax feed from regional and UK routes would eat into pax numbers originating in DUB and with no capacity increase, that would only invite additional capacity.

By all means add A339s as a supplement (and if there's a joint crew type rating, all the better), but as a replacement for the A359, it doesn't seem to make sense.
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