CARDIFF - 2
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Twin Aisle, why would we be surprised by CWL reflecting the UK wide growth in Air Passenger traffic? What your figures do not show is frailty of the CWL growth vs. the robustness of that at other regional airports, as you say BRS is the outlier statistically, but has also had a disproportionate negative effect on the poorly run CWL. This effect only becomes visible when the going gets tough and CWL pax figures and airlines evaporate while BRS is less effected. Pretty much the same situation with the failing Coventry vs the successful Birmingham Int. There is only so much cake to go round.
LEISURELAD, if the IT operators did not include the supplement for operating at regional bases, then they would withdraw the services tomorrow. Every time someone tries it cheaper, they go bust. Turkey last year, Florida a couple of years back, others I can't be bothered to remember. Rest assured TCX and TOM make literally a 'few quid' on selling an IT package. So the more they sell the cheaper they get. Thus at LGW and MAN where they sell 10's of thousands of hols, its cheaper than CWL (or BFS or EDI or BOH theres no racisim in it) where its in the lower thousands.
Unfortunately, the attitude of saving a few quid and driving to BRS for your trip, is step by step, leading to the downfall of CWL. I don't blame you as I'd do the same if the numbers don't stack up, thats Capitalisim, red in tooth and claw!
LEISURELAD, if the IT operators did not include the supplement for operating at regional bases, then they would withdraw the services tomorrow. Every time someone tries it cheaper, they go bust. Turkey last year, Florida a couple of years back, others I can't be bothered to remember. Rest assured TCX and TOM make literally a 'few quid' on selling an IT package. So the more they sell the cheaper they get. Thus at LGW and MAN where they sell 10's of thousands of hols, its cheaper than CWL (or BFS or EDI or BOH theres no racisim in it) where its in the lower thousands.
Unfortunately, the attitude of saving a few quid and driving to BRS for your trip, is step by step, leading to the downfall of CWL. I don't blame you as I'd do the same if the numbers don't stack up, thats Capitalisim, red in tooth and claw!
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Fully agree with your second and third paragraphs, Macdo.
The people I thought would find my observations surprising were those who assume that CWL has been in terminal decline for years, and was miles off the game. I was surprised to see that this is not true, except in comparison with BRS, which as I think we both agree is an anomaly
Not sure what you mean when you wrote about robustness; CWL has gone up and down like everyone else - again excepting the BRS situation, so I'm not sure what the robustness metric would be. The point I was trying to make was that beating up CWL and its management for their performance against BRS is perhaps not fair; its rather akin to someone attacking Audi for their cars not being fast enough compared to Ferrari's, whilst against most of the opposition they aren't bad...
TA
The people I thought would find my observations surprising were those who assume that CWL has been in terminal decline for years, and was miles off the game. I was surprised to see that this is not true, except in comparison with BRS, which as I think we both agree is an anomaly
Not sure what you mean when you wrote about robustness; CWL has gone up and down like everyone else - again excepting the BRS situation, so I'm not sure what the robustness metric would be. The point I was trying to make was that beating up CWL and its management for their performance against BRS is perhaps not fair; its rather akin to someone attacking Audi for their cars not being fast enough compared to Ferrari's, whilst against most of the opposition they aren't bad...
TA
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Hi TA
, well I guess it depends on the standpoint that you have on where CWL is in the UK regional pecking order, also to some extent its view of itself and the political culture influencing both.
CWL reflects the desire of the Welsh Assemby for Wales to be seen as more than a region of the UK. As such, it has persuaded itself that Wales and Cardiff being the capital needs an International Airport. Now, once upon a time the International bit meant something to people, but that has been lost as international travel has become routine. That didn't stop Cardfif International Airport getting a bit carried away with its place in the world and between the management and the politico's they began to think that they could walk on water.
Now, when times were good CIA,as was, managed to alienate most of the big LoCo operators with high charges. Eventually, WW gave it a try and largely made a reasonable fist of it. Unfortunately, like the airport, WW themselves have a fatal flaw as the unloved child of BMI etc. So, no matter how you talked it up, when the poo hit, it was almost inevitable that it would fail, as sadly WW will in its entirety when the cash runs out. We now have the situation where the Spanish own the place and the sense of ruderlessness is palpable in the place. So, no I don't think its unfair to beat up the management and the Welsh Assembly for mismanaging the whole thing for the last 15 years. IMHO the main reason BRS grew as it did, was that it fed (and continues to feed) from CWL's market. Had that market been nurtured and encouraged with infrastructure, marketing, attracting a major LoCo with a proper pricing structure, BRS may have been left as the 2nd rate dump that it was 15 years ago. Anyone remember the old terminal there?
So we are where we are, CWL is not robust because it has no major scheduled player, limited and shrinking market, failing political support and no plans from the Spanish to take things forward.
Sorry to be so negative as my job is as stake too, but until boomtime comes again its a busted flush.
, well I guess it depends on the standpoint that you have on where CWL is in the UK regional pecking order, also to some extent its view of itself and the political culture influencing both.
CWL reflects the desire of the Welsh Assemby for Wales to be seen as more than a region of the UK. As such, it has persuaded itself that Wales and Cardiff being the capital needs an International Airport. Now, once upon a time the International bit meant something to people, but that has been lost as international travel has become routine. That didn't stop Cardfif International Airport getting a bit carried away with its place in the world and between the management and the politico's they began to think that they could walk on water.
Now, when times were good CIA,as was, managed to alienate most of the big LoCo operators with high charges. Eventually, WW gave it a try and largely made a reasonable fist of it. Unfortunately, like the airport, WW themselves have a fatal flaw as the unloved child of BMI etc. So, no matter how you talked it up, when the poo hit, it was almost inevitable that it would fail, as sadly WW will in its entirety when the cash runs out. We now have the situation where the Spanish own the place and the sense of ruderlessness is palpable in the place. So, no I don't think its unfair to beat up the management and the Welsh Assembly for mismanaging the whole thing for the last 15 years. IMHO the main reason BRS grew as it did, was that it fed (and continues to feed) from CWL's market. Had that market been nurtured and encouraged with infrastructure, marketing, attracting a major LoCo with a proper pricing structure, BRS may have been left as the 2nd rate dump that it was 15 years ago. Anyone remember the old terminal there?
So we are where we are, CWL is not robust because it has no major scheduled player, limited and shrinking market, failing political support and no plans from the Spanish to take things forward.
Sorry to be so negative as my job is as stake too, but until boomtime comes again its a busted flush.
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The jungle drums are suggesting that bmibaby actually offered Cardiff extra aircraft, and a decent amount of expansion. However the management point blank refused to move on pricing. Anyone know more?
If its true, then they really must have an ace up their sleeve right? That or its a case of "will the last one to leave please turn out the lights".
I fear its the latter
If its true, then they really must have an ace up their sleeve right? That or its a case of "will the last one to leave please turn out the lights".
I fear its the latter
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If that is indeed true perhaps (they) were turned away as there is a price for the job and below that price it is of no commercial benefit. I don't think you could blame any management for that.
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A couple of points...
1. No-one outside of Abertis and bmibaby will have any real idea as to the charges imposed on the latter by the former;
2. Groundhog is quite correct - the comes a point where if the charges required by the airline are lower than the airport's costs, the answer is 'thanks but no thanks';
3. Why are bmibaby's motives being questioned? Perhaps they had really good reasons for leaving....
A lot of uninformed speculation going on. Not good and not helpful...
TA
1. No-one outside of Abertis and bmibaby will have any real idea as to the charges imposed on the latter by the former;
2. Groundhog is quite correct - the comes a point where if the charges required by the airline are lower than the airport's costs, the answer is 'thanks but no thanks';
3. Why are bmibaby's motives being questioned? Perhaps they had really good reasons for leaving....
A lot of uninformed speculation going on. Not good and not helpful...
TA
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Uninformed speculation is PPrunes Bread and Butter. 
Sorry, couldn't resist it.
Which ever way you cut it, CWL with no WW is a poorer place than with it. The remaining staff (squadrons of security) and a couple of office girls, still have to be paid. The tarmac will still need to be up-kept, as will the navaids and ATC. Although we were recently informed not to expect radar after normal hours as they can only afford to employ one operator. Ah. the joys of an NDB approach after a 10 hour day/night.
Plymouth announced its closure yesterday and I'm sure it will look very pretty as a housing estate.
Will Rhoose end up the same way, I wonder. Or will a red knight gallop in to save the day?
Sorry, couldn't resist it.Which ever way you cut it, CWL with no WW is a poorer place than with it. The remaining staff (squadrons of security) and a couple of office girls, still have to be paid. The tarmac will still need to be up-kept, as will the navaids and ATC. Although we were recently informed not to expect radar after normal hours as they can only afford to employ one operator. Ah. the joys of an NDB approach after a 10 hour day/night.
Plymouth announced its closure yesterday and I'm sure it will look very pretty as a housing estate.
Will Rhoose end up the same way, I wonder. Or will a red knight gallop in to save the day?
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I think CWL will survive for a few more years yet. The IT crowd will up their 2012 offering I'm sure. I guess there might be an outside chance that Jet2 or the still born FFB could turn up.
One can blame WW, the airport or Flybe, i think after WW moved its BFS operation to BHD and moved an airframe from CWL to serve STN it was game over for CWL for WW.
CWL is a bit like Hull in the sense that it has a catchment area (Hull the town not airport) which is cut of from the East by the North Sea, the South by the humber estuary and seen by many as a poor area, with high unemployment and a low income profile.....just reflect on BRS for a minute and you can see why it is powering ahead.
bmi have always avoided competion where they could and maybe the likes of MME & CWL could have done OK at $25 p/b but not now.
One can blame WW, the airport or Flybe, i think after WW moved its BFS operation to BHD and moved an airframe from CWL to serve STN it was game over for CWL for WW.
CWL is a bit like Hull in the sense that it has a catchment area (Hull the town not airport) which is cut of from the East by the North Sea, the South by the humber estuary and seen by many as a poor area, with high unemployment and a low income profile.....just reflect on BRS for a minute and you can see why it is powering ahead.
bmi have always avoided competion where they could and maybe the likes of MME & CWL could have done OK at $25 p/b but not now.
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TCX extra flights
I have been intrigued by the significant amount of extra flights layed on by TCX over Easter hols.
In addition to the based 320 they have operated extra flights to the same destinations of operation to TFS,FUE,AYT,ACE with 752 and 753 units.
Thts a fair bit of extra seats....and of course encouraging extra demand from CWL pax.
A few questions- is this more that last year? I only recall seeing an extra rotation of the based 320 to ACE and TFS last Easter.
How are the extra aircraft made available - arent they normally in use at their bases at this time of the year? Why hasnt competitor TOM picked up on this as the extra seats/demand must have brough a few extra quid in for TCX?
In addition to the based 320 they have operated extra flights to the same destinations of operation to TFS,FUE,AYT,ACE with 752 and 753 units.
Thts a fair bit of extra seats....and of course encouraging extra demand from CWL pax.
A few questions- is this more that last year? I only recall seeing an extra rotation of the based 320 to ACE and TFS last Easter.
How are the extra aircraft made available - arent they normally in use at their bases at this time of the year? Why hasnt competitor TOM picked up on this as the extra seats/demand must have brough a few extra quid in for TCX?
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These would have been on sale for some time not just laid on a few weeks ago, Easter is very late this year and the European Ski season is already over in most resorts so there are plenty of aircraft around.
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Similar has been seen at Glasgow for a few years when it's the Schools two week break or miners fornight i think they call it.
As the summer season isn't in swing yet there is a lot of aircraft available plus flight schedules at other bases may also be tweaked to accomodate the extra demand required elswewhere.
You are correct in saying that last year wasn't the same or as busy as this but we did see extra flight or two.
As the summer season isn't in swing yet there is a lot of aircraft available plus flight schedules at other bases may also be tweaked to accomodate the extra demand required elswewhere.
You are correct in saying that last year wasn't the same or as busy as this but we did see extra flight or two.
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Now even a TCX 763 from Tunisia today! Surely this hasnt been filled with just CWL pax?
I say it again - a huge bonanza of extra seats over Easter for TCX and just shows the I.T demand,albeit intermittent, at CWL. A real contrast to TCX downgrading to a 320 for this coming summer period!
Why doesnt TOM seize on these opportunities?
I say it again - a huge bonanza of extra seats over Easter for TCX and just shows the I.T demand,albeit intermittent, at CWL. A real contrast to TCX downgrading to a 320 for this coming summer period!
Why doesnt TOM seize on these opportunities?
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Back of the envelope figures....
A 733 burning 2 tons/hour, flying for 16hrs a day costs an extra $288K to keep flying per month when fuel is $125/barrel versus $75/barrel.
Lets say an average ticket price is $75, WW need to sell an extra 3840 tickets a month to make up this difference.
A big catchment area with money makes a difference, especially when the same economics affect FlyBe, Thomson, Thomas Cook etc etc
A 733 burning 2 tons/hour, flying for 16hrs a day costs an extra $288K to keep flying per month when fuel is $125/barrel versus $75/barrel.
Lets say an average ticket price is $75, WW need to sell an extra 3840 tickets a month to make up this difference.
A big catchment area with money makes a difference, especially when the same economics affect FlyBe, Thomson, Thomas Cook etc etc
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Much worse than that, since the argument supposes that the extra lots of $75 go just to fuel... What about the extra PVCs, higher DOCs and insurance?
TA
TA
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Standard TCX procedure to move the a/c around to suit the school holidays. Has become more noticeable since local authorities have begun to stagger the school hols. "Glasgow Airlift" has been going on for years due to the big difference in Scottish term dates. There was a big (up to 2 week) split between England and Wales, so the tour operator has captialised on it. Just hope that every hol is sold at a profit.
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With Ryanair now cutting capacity, I think it's fair to say the chances of them opening at CWL are now even slimmer than before.
Ryanair Seat Cut Marks End of Discount Boom - Bloomberg
Ryanair Seat Cut Marks End of Discount Boom - Bloomberg
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I'm not sure I believe what the article says....
If MO'L really thinks that he is economically better off parking 737-800s than flying them - or even better selling them, right now they command a real price premium because they are so sought after - then I'm applying to be the next pope....
Ryanair have for a while been slowly changing strategy, from one of growth to one of chasing return. (So has easyJet, hence the spat between management and Sir Stelios). And in any case, he is still looking to grow at 4% this year...
Builds the shareprice nicely, that. And guess who has lots of shares and keeps saying he is going to retire soon?
Remember this is a press release from a company that likes press releases, even when it has little to say, and especially when it thinks it can shock people into listening. Pay for a pee, anyone?
TA
If MO'L really thinks that he is economically better off parking 737-800s than flying them - or even better selling them, right now they command a real price premium because they are so sought after - then I'm applying to be the next pope....
Ryanair have for a while been slowly changing strategy, from one of growth to one of chasing return. (So has easyJet, hence the spat between management and Sir Stelios). And in any case, he is still looking to grow at 4% this year...
Builds the shareprice nicely, that. And guess who has lots of shares and keeps saying he is going to retire soon?
Remember this is a press release from a company that likes press releases, even when it has little to say, and especially when it thinks it can shock people into listening. Pay for a pee, anyone?
TA
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Passenger Figures April 2011
Only 2 weeks late and they have released the route figures.
APRIL 2011
DESTINATION/PASSENGER APR 11/ PASSENGER APR 10/ % CHANGE/SEATS AVAILABLE/LFS
ABERDEEN/760/0/-/1618/46.97 **
ALICANTE/5988 /6784/-11.73
AMSTERDAM/10333/8541/20.98/12600/82.01
ANGLESEY (VALLEY/697/0/-/1596/44.0
ANTALYA/1290/790/63.29
ARRECIFE/3040 /2096/45.04
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST/3118/3212/-2.93
BRIDGETOWN/508/256 /98.44
DALAMAN/1998/1188/68.18
DUBLIN/4916/4763/3.21/7920/62.07
EDINBURGH/6612/7710/-14.24/11232/58.87
FARO/1472/2983/-50.65
FUERTEVENTURA/1703/843/102.02
GENEVA/624/407/53.32
GLASGOW/4165/3740/11.36/7956/52.35
JERSEY/1117/1860/-39.95/1872 /59.67
LARNACA/183/0/-
LAS PALMAS/2362/1919/23.08
MALAGA/5745/6212/-7.52
MALTA/238/0/-
MONASTIR/889/1179/-24.60
MURCIA SAN JAVIER/1141/2140/-46.68
NEWCASTLE/1204/1638/-26.50/2836/42.45 **
NEWQUAY/253/0/-
PALMA DE MALLORCA/3399/4022/-15.49
PAPHOS/1583/1180/34.15
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)/2960/2365/25.16/4680/63.25
REUS/179/151/18.54
SHARM EL SHEIKH (OPHIRA)/3155/3960/-20.33
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)/7841/4522 /73.40
ZURICH 531/0/-/3200/16.59
Most routes show a rise due to the ash cloud. Some holiday routes are down as it all depends on when they started this summer compared to last, one week can mean the difference between 400 and 600 which is a drop of 1/3 or a gain of a half which ever way you look at it.
Some routes are quite worrying. EDI still dropping! Could this be due to Baby still being on it last year? At half the passengers that it used to carry in 2008. BHD down, NCL down.
For some routes I have done the Load Factors (% of seats filled). Some of BEs routes are doing well even EDI which is still carrying at 60%. JER is healthy and so it CDG. Others not, ZRH carrying at 15% in the first month. Not a great start but what we need is month on month growth. Big task for CWL.
Let you think of what you will with these results as they are not a great indication due to the ash cloud.
** Not sure if these figures are separate i.e. NCL figures people who just travelled to NCL and whose final destination was NCL and ABZ just to ABZ and not included in NCL figures. If they are seperate then ABZ is doing well and if they are separate then the NCL/ABZ flights as a whole are at 70% LF which is very good. If ABZ is generating 40% (~12 passengers) loads by itself then they may do it as a separate route in the future as T3 only need about 5/6 passengers to break even.
April
Number of Flights: 1,269
Percentage Change in Flights: 16.5%
Number of Passengers: 82,698
Percentage Change in Flights: 5.2%
Passenger Number Change April 2010: +4,088 (I hope my maths is right)
Rolling Year
Number of Flights: 17,038
Percentage Change in Flights: -11.4%
Number of Passengers: 1,362,580
Percentage Change in Flights: -11.4%
MARCH/-17,413/-15.7%
APRIL/-39,246/-33.9%
MAY/-26,619/-15.8%
JUNE/-24,337/-13.1%
JULY/-18,924/-10.4%
AUGUST/-16,257/-8.4%
SEPT/ -19,242/ -10.6%
OCT/ -12,947/ -8.4%
NOV/-6343/-8.01%
DEC/-10,195/-14.7%
JAN/-1907/-3.2%
FEB/-14,080/-18.1%
MARCH/-24,538/-26%
APRIL/+4,088/5%
We were expecting an increase in passenger figures but what is worrying is that we experienced the 6th lowest growth behind Lydd (3.7%), Penzance (3.6%), Cambridge (0%), Newquay (-10%), Shoreham (-61%). If it were not for the ash cloud we would have suffered quite a nasty drop in figures even with the Easter holidays.
This is a nice rest bite with, as I expect, quite heavy losses continuing for some time. If no carrier steps in for Baby then we will definitely see negative growth until at least Winter 2012 (even then it may be a bit hopeful), when the impact of baby departure will have surpassed a year.
APRIL 2011
DESTINATION/PASSENGER APR 11/ PASSENGER APR 10/ % CHANGE/SEATS AVAILABLE/LFS
ABERDEEN/760/0/-/1618/46.97 **
ALICANTE/5988 /6784/-11.73
AMSTERDAM/10333/8541/20.98/12600/82.01
ANGLESEY (VALLEY/697/0/-/1596/44.0
ANTALYA/1290/790/63.29
ARRECIFE/3040 /2096/45.04
BELFAST CITY (GEORGE BEST/3118/3212/-2.93
BRIDGETOWN/508/256 /98.44
DALAMAN/1998/1188/68.18
DUBLIN/4916/4763/3.21/7920/62.07
EDINBURGH/6612/7710/-14.24/11232/58.87
FARO/1472/2983/-50.65
FUERTEVENTURA/1703/843/102.02
GENEVA/624/407/53.32
GLASGOW/4165/3740/11.36/7956/52.35
JERSEY/1117/1860/-39.95/1872 /59.67
LARNACA/183/0/-
LAS PALMAS/2362/1919/23.08
MALAGA/5745/6212/-7.52
MALTA/238/0/-
MONASTIR/889/1179/-24.60
MURCIA SAN JAVIER/1141/2140/-46.68
NEWCASTLE/1204/1638/-26.50/2836/42.45 **
NEWQUAY/253/0/-
PALMA DE MALLORCA/3399/4022/-15.49
PAPHOS/1583/1180/34.15
PARIS (CHARLES DE GAULLE)/2960/2365/25.16/4680/63.25
REUS/179/151/18.54
SHARM EL SHEIKH (OPHIRA)/3155/3960/-20.33
TENERIFE (SURREINA SOFIA)/7841/4522 /73.40
ZURICH 531/0/-/3200/16.59
Most routes show a rise due to the ash cloud. Some holiday routes are down as it all depends on when they started this summer compared to last, one week can mean the difference between 400 and 600 which is a drop of 1/3 or a gain of a half which ever way you look at it.
Some routes are quite worrying. EDI still dropping! Could this be due to Baby still being on it last year? At half the passengers that it used to carry in 2008. BHD down, NCL down.
For some routes I have done the Load Factors (% of seats filled). Some of BEs routes are doing well even EDI which is still carrying at 60%. JER is healthy and so it CDG. Others not, ZRH carrying at 15% in the first month. Not a great start but what we need is month on month growth. Big task for CWL.
Let you think of what you will with these results as they are not a great indication due to the ash cloud.
** Not sure if these figures are separate i.e. NCL figures people who just travelled to NCL and whose final destination was NCL and ABZ just to ABZ and not included in NCL figures. If they are seperate then ABZ is doing well and if they are separate then the NCL/ABZ flights as a whole are at 70% LF which is very good. If ABZ is generating 40% (~12 passengers) loads by itself then they may do it as a separate route in the future as T3 only need about 5/6 passengers to break even.
April
Number of Flights: 1,269
Percentage Change in Flights: 16.5%
Number of Passengers: 82,698
Percentage Change in Flights: 5.2%
Passenger Number Change April 2010: +4,088 (I hope my maths is right)
Rolling Year
Number of Flights: 17,038
Percentage Change in Flights: -11.4%
Number of Passengers: 1,362,580
Percentage Change in Flights: -11.4%
MARCH/-17,413/-15.7%
APRIL/-39,246/-33.9%
MAY/-26,619/-15.8%
JUNE/-24,337/-13.1%
JULY/-18,924/-10.4%
AUGUST/-16,257/-8.4%
SEPT/ -19,242/ -10.6%
OCT/ -12,947/ -8.4%
NOV/-6343/-8.01%
DEC/-10,195/-14.7%
JAN/-1907/-3.2%
FEB/-14,080/-18.1%
MARCH/-24,538/-26%
APRIL/+4,088/5%
We were expecting an increase in passenger figures but what is worrying is that we experienced the 6th lowest growth behind Lydd (3.7%), Penzance (3.6%), Cambridge (0%), Newquay (-10%), Shoreham (-61%). If it were not for the ash cloud we would have suffered quite a nasty drop in figures even with the Easter holidays.
This is a nice rest bite with, as I expect, quite heavy losses continuing for some time. If no carrier steps in for Baby then we will definitely see negative growth until at least Winter 2012 (even then it may be a bit hopeful), when the impact of baby departure will have surpassed a year.