Ryanair - 8
I very much suspect that if Ryanair gets to the stage of having to report an annual loss to shareholders using formal accounting standards (none of this pro forma or EBITDA rubbish), MOL will realise he has to do something about it quickly. He is, after all, an accountant. I suspect also that loss making routes can be chopped quickly, and that FR has the capacity to significantly reduce staff numbers if they so wish
The capital cushion means FR will have plenty of time to take action
The capital cushion means FR will have plenty of time to take action
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The capital cushion means FR will have plenty of time to take action.
I will not repeat myself about what are the few simple things needed to achieve it.
Plus we have all seen your endless posts about how ryanair will be out of business next year . . .
What is funny is the ability of every other airline with higher fares being able to buy Oil at such a low price per tonne..............................oh wait thats not the case so they will have to increase the fuel surcharges even higher.
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Adding 15 euros to a 150 euro ticket will result in small loss of pax. Adding 15 euros to FRs 45 euro ticket will lead to a massive loss of pax. FR trades on generating demand by low headline fares. It had a low cost base as it could sell on 4-5 year old planes at around the cost it got them. With around 300 planes it is very much hurt by rising fuel prices hiting the other airlines.
It is going to take a lot of years for FR to sink but the whole firm is based on cheap oil and pax with lots of spare cash for a weekend in lubeck!
It is going to take a lot of years for FR to sink but the whole firm is based on cheap oil and pax with lots of spare cash for a weekend in lubeck!
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National Agency for Protection of Domestic Carrier
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Can we all just calm down, have a cup of tea and just think a little 
.
Im sure you dont need me to point out that Ryanair will be a long way down the list of Airlines that will go under due to the price of oil, this will mean more passengers and routes for Ryanair.
.Im sure you dont need me to point out that Ryanair will be a long way down the list of Airlines that will go under due to the price of oil, this will mean more passengers and routes for Ryanair.
Adding 15 euros to a 150 euro ticket will result in small loss of pax. Adding 15 euros to FRs 45 euro ticket will lead to a massive loss of pax. FR trades on generating demand by low headline fares. It had a low cost base as it could sell on 4-5 year old planes at around the cost it got them. With around 300 planes it is very much hurt by rising fuel prices hiting the other airlines.
It is going to take a lot of years for FR to sink but the whole firm is based on cheap oil and pax with lots of spare cash for a weekend in lubeck!
It is going to take a lot of years for FR to sink but the whole firm is based on cheap oil and pax with lots of spare cash for a weekend in lubeck!
You are stuck in a time warp that assummes what happened yesterday will happen tomorrow rather than reinvention.
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Im sure you dont need me to point out that Ryanair will be a long way down the list of Airlines that will go under due to the price of oil, this will mean more passengers and routes for Ryanair.
I read spain is dropping its speed limit on motorways to 110kph from 120kph. This save 15% on fuel. I guess FR will do the same and add 5-10 minutes to sector lengths now fuel costs a lot more than staff.
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You need to look back over 2009/2010 people we being made jobless, people had alot less money but what happened ?
Yes thats right Ryanair opened upto the Holiday Islands of the Canaries, this in a time when people were being told to think about a UK holiday or a staycation ...
You just need to take a look at the Ryanair route map to see how many flights/destinations are availabe from these now bases to see that people will fly with Ryanair, so if/when other airlines put up fuel/ticket prices people will look for cheaper flights and we all know cheaper flights = Ryanair.
I remember not so long ago you would be looking around £300 for a rtn flight to the Canaires but guess what I can now do it for less than £50 and that is all down to Ryanair the only Airline I know who can adapt quickly to a changing market...
Yes thats right Ryanair opened upto the Holiday Islands of the Canaries, this in a time when people were being told to think about a UK holiday or a staycation ...
You just need to take a look at the Ryanair route map to see how many flights/destinations are availabe from these now bases to see that people will fly with Ryanair, so if/when other airlines put up fuel/ticket prices people will look for cheaper flights and we all know cheaper flights = Ryanair.
I remember not so long ago you would be looking around £300 for a rtn flight to the Canaires but guess what I can now do it for less than £50 and that is all down to Ryanair the only Airline I know who can adapt quickly to a changing market...
Just booked a return flight for the two of us TFS - LTN - TFS 19/3 return 24/3 136€ each Total (everything included) I am more than happy with that.....try those dates with Monarch and you will get a surprise !!!!
Some people seem to be forgetting about what economists call elasticity of demand.
The family flying off for a 4 day half term break to Spain could quite happily make do with driving from their home to a beach for 4 days instead if the air fare looks too high - I doubt most people on this forum over the age of about 25 had many half term trips while they were kids to Mallorca, unless their parents were wealthy or they had family ties.
The large company trying to close a deal that would give a profit of tens of thousands is far less concerned about an air fare costing an extra 100 pounds compared to what they paid 10 years ago. Furthermore, businesses tend to be in the centres of major cities - not really FR's business model at the moment.
In addition, the duty of care placed on employers, and Ryanair's refusal to integrate with business travel agents' systems (no, I'm not talking about the HIgh Street chains) means that apart from niche routes and the risk of being mucked around (explaining to a potential client that Ryanair will put you on the next flight in 3 days time is not remotely plausible) makes companies of 100+ employees wary of Ryanair
Very little business travel will go Ryanair in the next 5 years. Yes, Ryanair could capture some of the market, but it will require substantial investment in systems, customer service and marketing, all of which take time. Easyjet can capture some of this business, but the rest remains with legacy carriers. If oil shoots up, business travel will largely go on - even if some goes to video conferencing.
Private individuals will find a way to keep their bills down. If rising oil prices mean that the weekly supermarket bill goes up, then while the annual family holiday will be preserved, those weekend trips to somewhere 2 hours flight away will get cut.
The family flying off for a 4 day half term break to Spain could quite happily make do with driving from their home to a beach for 4 days instead if the air fare looks too high - I doubt most people on this forum over the age of about 25 had many half term trips while they were kids to Mallorca, unless their parents were wealthy or they had family ties.
The large company trying to close a deal that would give a profit of tens of thousands is far less concerned about an air fare costing an extra 100 pounds compared to what they paid 10 years ago. Furthermore, businesses tend to be in the centres of major cities - not really FR's business model at the moment.
In addition, the duty of care placed on employers, and Ryanair's refusal to integrate with business travel agents' systems (no, I'm not talking about the HIgh Street chains) means that apart from niche routes and the risk of being mucked around (explaining to a potential client that Ryanair will put you on the next flight in 3 days time is not remotely plausible) makes companies of 100+ employees wary of Ryanair
Very little business travel will go Ryanair in the next 5 years. Yes, Ryanair could capture some of the market, but it will require substantial investment in systems, customer service and marketing, all of which take time. Easyjet can capture some of this business, but the rest remains with legacy carriers. If oil shoots up, business travel will largely go on - even if some goes to video conferencing.
Private individuals will find a way to keep their bills down. If rising oil prices mean that the weekly supermarket bill goes up, then while the annual family holiday will be preserved, those weekend trips to somewhere 2 hours flight away will get cut.
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And where David would you suggest a four day half-term beach break in the UK in February may I ask! Trust me most people will still find a short break in these hard times - plenty of them down in here in Southern Spain at the moment all enjoying the glorious weather in the lows 20s Centigrade!
eric + compton - I agree that there will always be *some* people who can afford a half-term trip with kids to the beach. That number will of course vary based on a number of factors. A short break can always be found somewhere - at the worst case, just take the week off work, and take the kids out each day somewhere locally in half-term. It's very possible to trade down a notch or two - so that a trip to the Canary Islands instead becomes a trip to somewhere a little more modest when flight costs increase. Perhaps that 9 hour flight to the mouse in Florida becomes a train trip to Eurodisney instead ? Still a break, still see the mouse, maybe not as warm, but most definitely cheaper.
Do you by any chance have year-on-year data for the February half-term week showing the change in numbers of visitors to Tenerife from the UK for example ?
Furthermore, most airlines will have bought fuel on the forward market rather than spot. The people on the beach right now will have purchased their flights based on fuel prices from (approx) summer / autumn 2010. Because most airlines tend not to pass on any new fuel charges to those who have already purchased their tickets, there is usually a lag of several months before a spike in the price of a barrel of crude oil affects the number of people observed building sandcastles on a Spanish beach
On a separate note - if you're wandering around the beach in Tenerife, what on earth are you doing posting at PPRuNe ?
Do you by any chance have year-on-year data for the February half-term week showing the change in numbers of visitors to Tenerife from the UK for example ?
Furthermore, most airlines will have bought fuel on the forward market rather than spot. The people on the beach right now will have purchased their flights based on fuel prices from (approx) summer / autumn 2010. Because most airlines tend not to pass on any new fuel charges to those who have already purchased their tickets, there is usually a lag of several months before a spike in the price of a barrel of crude oil affects the number of people observed building sandcastles on a Spanish beach
On a separate note - if you're wandering around the beach in Tenerife, what on earth are you doing posting at PPRuNe ?
DJ6......sorry no access to figures just observations around Los Cristianos/Playa. No I am not on the beach, not at weekends and kids holidays, too busy and noisy. Prefer the solitude of the sun terrace. Take Care.
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Ryanair
Don't agree with your assessment that business trafic does not use Ryanair. I am aware of many firms that do. The lack of flexibility over a so called legacy carrier is well worth the risk - book at £50 instead of £100 and if one in 10 goes wrong is still a good gamble.
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befree, "Adding 15 euros to a 150 euro ticket will result in small loss of pax. Adding 15 euros to FRs 45 euro ticket will lead to a massive loss of pax."
Adding €15 to a €150 ticket will make the cost €165. Adding €15 to FR's €45 ticket will make this ticket €60.
FR's price is still dirt cheap by comparison.
Adding €15 to a €150 ticket will make the cost €165. Adding €15 to FR's €45 ticket will make this ticket €60.
FR's price is still dirt cheap by comparison.
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What Ryanair has done over the past 10 years is reduce their cost base to make it the lowest in Europe. Im afraid to say to those Ryanair haters, it is other airlines that will have more problems with the rise in Oil price.
Ryanair are already changing their business model, and this so far has resulted in moving onto longer sectors, with a higher demand and therefore the ability to push up fares without resulting in loss of passenger numbers. Airlines trying now to compete with Ryanair on these routes ie Canaries etc are the ones who will lose out as they simply dont have a low enough cost base to lower fares to compete.
Ryanair will in turn reduce the number of routes that are loss making (where marketing deals finish) ie in Pau. Routes into airports like this need extremely low fares to generate demand. Ryanair cannot provide this without low landing fees and "marketing support" as it is worded. Capacity will be switched to routes where there will always be demand, ie major cities and bucket and spade routes.
Ryanair have a hefty cash reserve, they have the strongest business model in Europe and unlike other airlines can react very quickly to market conditions. This will in the long term benefit Ryanair as more airlines collapse and pull off routes, leaving them for Ryanair's taking.
Ryanair is changing, slowly but surely as the airline now matures. More will be obvious in the coming years.
Ryanair are already changing their business model, and this so far has resulted in moving onto longer sectors, with a higher demand and therefore the ability to push up fares without resulting in loss of passenger numbers. Airlines trying now to compete with Ryanair on these routes ie Canaries etc are the ones who will lose out as they simply dont have a low enough cost base to lower fares to compete.
Ryanair will in turn reduce the number of routes that are loss making (where marketing deals finish) ie in Pau. Routes into airports like this need extremely low fares to generate demand. Ryanair cannot provide this without low landing fees and "marketing support" as it is worded. Capacity will be switched to routes where there will always be demand, ie major cities and bucket and spade routes.
Ryanair have a hefty cash reserve, they have the strongest business model in Europe and unlike other airlines can react very quickly to market conditions. This will in the long term benefit Ryanair as more airlines collapse and pull off routes, leaving them for Ryanair's taking.
Ryanair is changing, slowly but surely as the airline now matures. More will be obvious in the coming years.