MANCHESTER - 8
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So, now we have 6 flights to the middle east every day, lets just hope this growth is sustainable, as there seems to be strong rumours EK will add their 3rd daily by winter 2011 too!
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I'm sure EK have more lucrative A380 destinations than MAN
However, for cargo puropses, a new B773 frequency is needed, as adding just a 2nd A380 alone would eliminate all cargo from MAN, so, if they did add a 2nd A380, a new cargo route or 3rd daily would be needed anyway.
I can see the EK21/22 being added first, then the 2nd A380 next year personally.
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Its hard to tell with EK what they actually look for in an A380 destination. Those exact words were what people were saying before EK launched the first A380 service.
The A380 at MAN was the first 'regonal airport' in the world to get a commercial service got MAN, the A380 and in turn EK unbelievable press coverage.
I guess when you've got 90-odd on order and money in the bank the idea of picking your most lucrative routes early on it's really essential and using the plane as a PR stunt is.
Having said that I don't mean to take anything away from MAN! It's proved it can handle at least one A380 every day - most likely more!
I can see the EK21/22 being added first, then the 2nd A380 next year personally.
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I guess when you've got 90-odd on order and money in the bank the idea of picking your most lucrative routes early on it's really essential and using the plane as a PR stunt is
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OZ/NZ-UK is such a massive market for EK which they are slowly but surely taking from the likes of BA and QF
However I wonder of the Middle East descending into chaos might have an affect. Bahrain is already coming apart.
One of the issues is that they are dumping the smaller aircraft that might have been used to start a third daily flight. The small three class B777-200 fleet is already very busy, the two class B772s are pretty ancient now and the A330-200s are being sold on, two gone already hence it would be a third daily flight with a B777-300ER and that's a lot of seats. Hence on some days you would have an addition B777-300ER and two A330-200s to fill out of MAN. Interesting times.
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Bahrain has been coming apart for quite a while now look at Gulf Air.
Remember 2 A332 is not a massive increase over a B777W only a 100 seats or so
for Etihad, it`s Qatar that are taking the big gamble but their loads have been very good
recently and I would guess they have taken a good look at the figures and recon
that they will make more money ex MAN than LGW as do Emirates
Ian B
Remember 2 A332 is not a massive increase over a B777W only a 100 seats or so
for Etihad, it`s Qatar that are taking the big gamble but their loads have been very good
recently and I would guess they have taken a good look at the figures and recon
that they will make more money ex MAN than LGW as do Emirates
Ian B
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Bahrain has been coming apart for quite a while now look at Gulf Air.
The collapse of Bahrain as a state is part of the contagion sweeping the region. Last week the Kuwaitis took to bribing the populace with even more money.
Doesn't matter anyway, they're not there to make money. Different set of rules for EY and QR. EK however, contrary to first impressions, is a real business.
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Gulf Capacity Increases and General Market Outlook.
Following on from Skipness' comments, it does appear that public awareness of travel options from Manchester to Australia and NZ via the Gulf / Singapore is pretty good now. It was notable that the extensive advertising campaign promoting tourism to Australia tied in with plugs for Emirates and Singapore Airlines services. I personally have not seen any of these ads (in the Granada broadcasting region) tying in with BA or QANTAS.
Skipness' reminder about Bahrain is also timely. Whilst events in Libya are dominating media headlines for obvious reasons, issues in other affected countries have not gone away. Leaving the politics aside, we must remain mindful of the economics driving the oil markets. The intermediate term loss of Libya's oil is now fully priced in to the market. Algeria is a source of continuing worry as a major supplier to Italy and France in particular. In Bahrain, at least 30 Saudi tanks have been noted crossing the causeway into Bahrain to assist the existing government in keeping order there. Any concessions to the Shia protesters in Bahrain (and surely some are inevitable) are interpreted by the markets as increasing Iran's influence in the region. Meanwhile, Iran has unrest of its own.
Friday March 11th is a critical day to watch in the oil markets. This date is being promoted as a "Day of Rage" amongst discontented elements in Saudi Arabia. If this turns out to be a "damp squib" [no resulting publicity], easily contained by the authorities, the oil markets will breathe more easily. But if significant protests hit the headlines, USD$150/bbl+ oil could be with us overnight. Saudi Arabia remains very concerned about Shia unrest in the main oil-producing eastern province adjacent to Bahrain. One further brief point concerning Saudi Arabia. Whilst the country has promised to increase oil output to offset absent Libyan production, Saudi's output is predominantly heavy sour crude which not all refineries are equipped to cope with; Libyan production is the much more desirable light sweet crude. And of course, the jury is out regarding Saudi's actual ability to increase output in the real world; mega-fields such as Gharwar are long-in-the-tooth and declining. Desperate measures (chemical injections) are being used to sustain production levels from some older wells.
Please be assured that for the purposes of this discussion (prospects for airlines) I am focusing ONLY on the oil price and its implications for aviation. We all have our own private views concerning wars, oppressive regimes and minorities, but discussion of these does not belong here. Lets assume that our thoughts are with all those adversely affected, and stick to our own subject - air services.
So, looking ahead to Summer, the oil price remains the key concern for airline operators at MAN. Oil in the $110/bbl area is already a major headache for carriers, though many are hedged for the months ahead. Problems will arise if the oil prices remain elevated when those hedges need to be rolled over. Airline cutbacks based on fuel prices will affect ALL markets, not just services to politically troubled destinations.
Looking at specific markets for MAN, I think we can presume that LAA106/7 will be absent the schedules for some considerable time at best. In Tunisia, unrest continues; protesters consider the new presidential incumbent too closely associated with his predecessor and not the answer to their problems. Morocco has continuing issues too. Tour operators must consider not only foreign office advice in continuing programmes to these markets, but also their baseline profitability. Will public demand for holidays to these destinations hold up sufficiently to support profits? What about the potential cost of a repatriation from any affected country should foreign office travel advice change suddenly?
Egypt remains a tricky call. It was a massive destination for tour operators ex-MAN in 2010. Resorts such as Sharm-el-Sheik are relatively safe as heavily-protected "gated villages" well away from the main trouble spots. But the attraction of being able to sell excursions to the Pyramids, The Valley of the Kings etc. will be severely curtailed. With Egypt being so distant from MAN, fuel prices are a huge factor affecting IT programmes here too. A summer cocktail of high fuel prices, negative headlines, security concerns and possibly limited access to some historic tourist sites conspire against Egypt repeating its popularity of 2010.
Any positives? Well obviously destinations such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece stand to do well if they play their cards right. That means not homing in on the tourist industry as targets for their own anti-austerity disputes! But fuel prices (shorter air sectors) and a perception of being safe destinations will work in their favour this summer. Of course, reduced disposable income amongst the British holiday-buying public must be factored into thinking too. This will be a challenging season ahead for TUI, Thomas Cook and their brethren in the IT sector.
One final thought. Several years ago, major tour operators pulled their Cyprus programmes en masse based on perceptions that the country was too close to unrest in Lebanon at that time. The Cypriot government reacted decisively to protect its vital tourist industry, with the result that services to the UK by Cyprus Airways and Eurocypria were massively enhanced for a couple of seasons until the major tour operators returned in volume with their own metal. The success of this precedent could partially explain potential new services to MAN by Tunis Air and Royal Air Maroc which are rumoured to be under consideration. There is a vital tourist industry to protect, and if the major tour operators withdraw capacity in favour of other markets ...
All comments arising from this summary are welcome, but this time lets stick to oil price implications, tour operators and airlines serving MAN. We don't want to upset the mods again. Lets take it as read that we all have our individual views / sympathies concerning political regimes, protestors and war victims and leave them out of this discussion. With that understood, I continue to envisage a very challenging summer ahead for air services from Manchester Airport in particular and the UK generally. MAN has waited quite some time for the return of sustainable growth. Sadly, I don't think 2011 will be the year to reverse the trend. I'd love to be wrong on that one, though!
SHED.
Skipness' reminder about Bahrain is also timely. Whilst events in Libya are dominating media headlines for obvious reasons, issues in other affected countries have not gone away. Leaving the politics aside, we must remain mindful of the economics driving the oil markets. The intermediate term loss of Libya's oil is now fully priced in to the market. Algeria is a source of continuing worry as a major supplier to Italy and France in particular. In Bahrain, at least 30 Saudi tanks have been noted crossing the causeway into Bahrain to assist the existing government in keeping order there. Any concessions to the Shia protesters in Bahrain (and surely some are inevitable) are interpreted by the markets as increasing Iran's influence in the region. Meanwhile, Iran has unrest of its own.
Friday March 11th is a critical day to watch in the oil markets. This date is being promoted as a "Day of Rage" amongst discontented elements in Saudi Arabia. If this turns out to be a "damp squib" [no resulting publicity], easily contained by the authorities, the oil markets will breathe more easily. But if significant protests hit the headlines, USD$150/bbl+ oil could be with us overnight. Saudi Arabia remains very concerned about Shia unrest in the main oil-producing eastern province adjacent to Bahrain. One further brief point concerning Saudi Arabia. Whilst the country has promised to increase oil output to offset absent Libyan production, Saudi's output is predominantly heavy sour crude which not all refineries are equipped to cope with; Libyan production is the much more desirable light sweet crude. And of course, the jury is out regarding Saudi's actual ability to increase output in the real world; mega-fields such as Gharwar are long-in-the-tooth and declining. Desperate measures (chemical injections) are being used to sustain production levels from some older wells.
Please be assured that for the purposes of this discussion (prospects for airlines) I am focusing ONLY on the oil price and its implications for aviation. We all have our own private views concerning wars, oppressive regimes and minorities, but discussion of these does not belong here. Lets assume that our thoughts are with all those adversely affected, and stick to our own subject - air services.
So, looking ahead to Summer, the oil price remains the key concern for airline operators at MAN. Oil in the $110/bbl area is already a major headache for carriers, though many are hedged for the months ahead. Problems will arise if the oil prices remain elevated when those hedges need to be rolled over. Airline cutbacks based on fuel prices will affect ALL markets, not just services to politically troubled destinations.
Looking at specific markets for MAN, I think we can presume that LAA106/7 will be absent the schedules for some considerable time at best. In Tunisia, unrest continues; protesters consider the new presidential incumbent too closely associated with his predecessor and not the answer to their problems. Morocco has continuing issues too. Tour operators must consider not only foreign office advice in continuing programmes to these markets, but also their baseline profitability. Will public demand for holidays to these destinations hold up sufficiently to support profits? What about the potential cost of a repatriation from any affected country should foreign office travel advice change suddenly?
Egypt remains a tricky call. It was a massive destination for tour operators ex-MAN in 2010. Resorts such as Sharm-el-Sheik are relatively safe as heavily-protected "gated villages" well away from the main trouble spots. But the attraction of being able to sell excursions to the Pyramids, The Valley of the Kings etc. will be severely curtailed. With Egypt being so distant from MAN, fuel prices are a huge factor affecting IT programmes here too. A summer cocktail of high fuel prices, negative headlines, security concerns and possibly limited access to some historic tourist sites conspire against Egypt repeating its popularity of 2010.
Any positives? Well obviously destinations such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece stand to do well if they play their cards right. That means not homing in on the tourist industry as targets for their own anti-austerity disputes! But fuel prices (shorter air sectors) and a perception of being safe destinations will work in their favour this summer. Of course, reduced disposable income amongst the British holiday-buying public must be factored into thinking too. This will be a challenging season ahead for TUI, Thomas Cook and their brethren in the IT sector.
One final thought. Several years ago, major tour operators pulled their Cyprus programmes en masse based on perceptions that the country was too close to unrest in Lebanon at that time. The Cypriot government reacted decisively to protect its vital tourist industry, with the result that services to the UK by Cyprus Airways and Eurocypria were massively enhanced for a couple of seasons until the major tour operators returned in volume with their own metal. The success of this precedent could partially explain potential new services to MAN by Tunis Air and Royal Air Maroc which are rumoured to be under consideration. There is a vital tourist industry to protect, and if the major tour operators withdraw capacity in favour of other markets ...
All comments arising from this summary are welcome, but this time lets stick to oil price implications, tour operators and airlines serving MAN. We don't want to upset the mods again. Lets take it as read that we all have our individual views / sympathies concerning political regimes, protestors and war victims and leave them out of this discussion. With that understood, I continue to envisage a very challenging summer ahead for air services from Manchester Airport in particular and the UK generally. MAN has waited quite some time for the return of sustainable growth. Sadly, I don't think 2011 will be the year to reverse the trend. I'd love to be wrong on that one, though!
SHED.
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Next rumour is AI DEL-MAN and DEL-BHX.
Reply 14
Indian Aviation Thread: Part 92 — Civil Aviation Forum | Airliners.net
Air India is likely to announce daily DEL - MAN flights and 3-4 weekly DEL - BHX flights soon. Departure times ex - DEL will be around 2pm.
Reply 14
Indian Aviation Thread: Part 92 — Civil Aviation Forum | Airliners.net
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Any positives? Well obviously destinations such as Spain, Italy, Portugal and Greece stand to do well if they play their cards right.
This will be a challenging season ahead for TUI, Thomas Cook and their brethren in the IT sector.
It's common knowledge that those who have a decreasing disposable income would make everyday sacrifices before giving up with an annual holiday. The middle class have been 'warned' that they are likely to be the worst hit - TOM/TCX's target long haul customers.
Try to imagine a shift in passengers from the top of the pyramid (higher class) to bottom (working class). Those used to flying BA J/F to BGI or MLE (completely random examples) may now decide that they can no longer afford that luxury and move to TOM/TCX to the same destinations. Those who once flew TCX/TOM in 'Star Class' (or whatever TCX offers) may decide they'll go short haul or long haul standard and the list carries on.
However short haul for TCX, TOM, MON etc. is becoming so much more competitive with LS and now U2 creeping into the market place and the other problems associated with charter flying in Europe.
In conclusion I completely agree with Shed-on-a-Pole in regards to short haul but I can see long haul being not so much affect - I may be wrong!
Next rumour is AI DEL-MAN
How much more traffic can MAN push out going East?
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MUFC_fan
My thinking in omitting Turkey from the list was the potential effect of high fuel prices on the 4hr+ sector lengths required to fly there. This is also a factor affecting Cyprus and easterly destinations in Greece.
I agree with your remarks in general.
All the best. SHED.
My thinking in omitting Turkey from the list was the potential effect of high fuel prices on the 4hr+ sector lengths required to fly there. This is also a factor affecting Cyprus and easterly destinations in Greece.
I agree with your remarks in general.
All the best. SHED.
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Re My Reply to Manchester Airport 3 March.
Manchester Airport // Fernanjet // Tight Seat
You all seem a little upset by my Reply to Manchester Airport s Question.
Firstly I Will not Apologise for my remarks as we live in a free Country I can reply and speak my mind as I wish.
Fernanjet Why was my reply Vile ??
I advised Manchester Airport that he should contact his tour operator and make this request not this forum which I would remind you is called
(Professional Pilots Rumour Network)
There have been numerous threads on this site before which have been removed by the Moderator as they were not be fitting to this Forum and in fact advised as I did to contact the Tour Operator or the Airline.
The second part of my reply advised him that on modern Jets the en route time was always within +/- 5-10 mins as most modern Aircraft used on Charter flight do approx the same speed.
Tight Seat
Re your remark about my Age why would I say I am 61 if I am Not seems a strange statement to make.
FYI I was born 5 July 1949 (if you want to put me on your List for a Birthday Card)
I Started work in Aviation in 1968 so I think I know just a little about the business.
Manchester Airport
I do have Manners I do not have Mannors
It seem all you use this site for is to find out what aircraft you are flying on as per your Post in 2009 re your flight to Monastir ,I Therefore must assume you are not a professional Aviation Person.
So After me wasting another 5 mins mins of my time I wish you all a good evening and I Confirm there will be NO Apology from I as I do not consider myself in the wrong
Good Night
Learjet 50
You all seem a little upset by my Reply to Manchester Airport s Question.
Firstly I Will not Apologise for my remarks as we live in a free Country I can reply and speak my mind as I wish.
Fernanjet Why was my reply Vile ??
I advised Manchester Airport that he should contact his tour operator and make this request not this forum which I would remind you is called
(Professional Pilots Rumour Network)
There have been numerous threads on this site before which have been removed by the Moderator as they were not be fitting to this Forum and in fact advised as I did to contact the Tour Operator or the Airline.
The second part of my reply advised him that on modern Jets the en route time was always within +/- 5-10 mins as most modern Aircraft used on Charter flight do approx the same speed.
Tight Seat
Re your remark about my Age why would I say I am 61 if I am Not seems a strange statement to make.
FYI I was born 5 July 1949 (if you want to put me on your List for a Birthday Card)
I Started work in Aviation in 1968 so I think I know just a little about the business.
Manchester Airport
I do have Manners I do not have Mannors
It seem all you use this site for is to find out what aircraft you are flying on as per your Post in 2009 re your flight to Monastir ,I Therefore must assume you are not a professional Aviation Person.
So After me wasting another 5 mins mins of my time I wish you all a good evening and I Confirm there will be NO Apology from I as I do not consider myself in the wrong
Good Night
Learjet 50
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strategic airlines
Anyone heard off an airline called strategic airlines ,have booked to go to Greece at the end of may should of been flying with Monarch ,have been informed today flight changed to Strategic Airlines,does anyone know who will handle them at man?
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Strategic Airlines
Re your query re Stratigic Airlines
They are as far as I am aware the ashes that have risen from the Viking Airliners days
They have 2 A320 on Luxembourg Register I think
if you look on the Viking Airlines thread there is a lot of reading to be had
Regards
They are as far as I am aware the ashes that have risen from the Viking Airliners days
They have 2 A320 on Luxembourg Register I think
if you look on the Viking Airlines thread there is a lot of reading to be had
Regards
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Manchester Airports Group interested in BAA airport disposals : Manchester Airport News Stories
In other news...grass is green.
In other news...grass is green.
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I don't think Strategic Airlines are anything to do with Viking. A quick search on Google/Wikipedia will show you it's an Australian company that has charter operations. Monarch did not renew the contract with Olympic Holidays because the prices Olympic were paying did not match true current market values.
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Mancairboy
From the Monarch thread, it would seem Strategic Airlines is an airline which had its French AOC revoked by the DGAC on safety grounds a short time ago, however they have since managed to obtain an AOC in Luxembourg. They appear to have managed to get some charter work from Olympic Holidays after Monarch and Olympic split ways.
By the looks of it, completely different outfit to the Oz airline mentioned.
From the Monarch thread, it would seem Strategic Airlines is an airline which had its French AOC revoked by the DGAC on safety grounds a short time ago, however they have since managed to obtain an AOC in Luxembourg. They appear to have managed to get some charter work from Olympic Holidays after Monarch and Olympic split ways.
By the looks of it, completely different outfit to the Oz airline mentioned.