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MANCHESTER - 8

Old 24th Aug 2011, 16:05
  #2501 (permalink)  

I Have Control
 
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Grrr

Resumed flights to TIP soon?
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Old 29th Aug 2011, 06:58
  #2502 (permalink)  
 
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Iberia to change to a nightstopper from April 2012:

IB8502 MAD 2000 MAN 2120
IB8503 MAN 0725 MAD 1045

Flights still daily and still on the crj1000
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Old 29th Aug 2011, 14:18
  #2503 (permalink)  
 
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Ian yes I agree,I always said STNs massive growth was probably down to BAA LHR profits being used to shore up STN LCC ,presumably operating for almost nothing.

Once it was clear that BAA had to sell STN ,then imagine all the LHR profits being used for STN will stop..and prices will have to go up to balance the books.

Looks like airlines flying into STN are spotting this and relocating .

Looks like the boom years for STN are coming to an end unless it gets a rich new owner willing to subsidies all the LCC again.

Nigel
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Old 29th Aug 2011, 18:07
  #2504 (permalink)  
 
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Nigel

I think you may be a little wide of the mark. BAA as a general rule don't "do deals" to attract airlines.
The numbers are down because RYR took their bat & ball home as a result of this policy & others are heading south of the river to LGW who (having escaped BAA control & having an ex BAA boss to boot) now will use their new found freedom to "entice" carriers in.
MAN have a much more balanced portfolio of airlines & that in part is because it serves a different region. Just like everything else in life, the fortunes of airports can go down as well as up. Ultimately STN is the fourth largest in the country, so I think there may be a few others airports who face demise before this particular goose is cooked!
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Old 29th Aug 2011, 20:42
  #2505 (permalink)  
 
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Sorry its true !

STN lived on the fruits of LHR and LGW for years, NG is correct, prices have gone up to realistic levels and the only reason that kept the LoCo's using an airport in the middle of nowehere was price !

Now that attraction has gone "see Air Berlin , Air Asia etc" there is no reason to stay !

It's not the end of the line, far from it, but the original reason for building STN as another London airport for overspill from LHR and LGW has never been fulfilled.

It's market was artificially generated when the LoCos exploded on the scene,
had they not appeared it would have struggled to become little more than a regional airport !
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Old 29th Aug 2011, 21:53
  #2506 (permalink)  
 
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I believe you have got that back to front: STN prices haven't gone up - its LGW prices which are coming down. They have become much more competitive & will continue to win new business on price - much of it at Stansted's expense. Either way the outcome is the same.
Certainly Air Asia have gone to LGW because of the deal LGW can now offer (plus slots which are now available which were not before.)
Air Berlin are retrenching on several fronts including LGW.

RYR threw their teddy out of the pram at MAN because they couldn't get the deal they wanted. Now they are back again because they realise its a market they need to be in even if the price is higher than they may want to pay. More power to MAPLC for holding out - a good call.
It is on record that RYR have reduced their presence at STN because the current deal is not one they like. They believe they will get a better deal from a potential new owner & will offer more business if that deal is forthcoming. ......In light of which it could be interesting to see what happens if MAG buy the place!
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Old 30th Aug 2011, 10:26
  #2507 (permalink)  
 
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DfT predicting 55m passengers by 2040.

UK aviation forecasts 2011 - Publications - Department for Transport

Page 149.
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Old 30th Aug 2011, 11:45
  #2508 (permalink)  
 
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Whats all this talk about London area airports and cross subsidy got to do with Manchester?
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Old 30th Aug 2011, 11:56
  #2509 (permalink)  
 
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DfT forecasts

I was reading this report over the weekend, and when thinking about traffic predictions it is interesting to note that the DfT's model was significantly wrong with recent projections for MAN. On pages 37 and 40 the report presents the forecast vs actual tables for both passengers and ATMs as evidence of the accuracy of the modelling. However, figures for MAN are notably out on both counts, in particular with ATMs. There is no commentary to explain why MAN has not performed in accordance with predictions. The tables show MAN achieved significantly less throughtput than predicted yet there is no corresponding increase against forecasts at other competing airports to explain where MAN's traffic went. Competing airports generally performed closer to forecasts. These results may support the notion that MAN has a rather unique market profile which does not respond in the same way to economic and social trends affecting other airports with a more defined market i.e. Heathrow- all full service flag carriers; Stansted/ Luton / Liverpool - mainly locos. Interesting to note that the growth predictions on pages 149 and 160 single out MAN amongst the top five airports as being the only one to sustain growth beyond 2030. This assumes capacity is constrained of course, and there are no more runways. In terms of movements both LHR and LGW are shown to be effectively full now. MAN certainly has the potential to get back to its 2006 peak of 225000 ATMs and maybe some more, but I have no idea how it could achieve the forecast 400000 ATMs using the present segregated mode dual-runway configuration. It does make you wonder what assumptions have been built into these models.
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Old 30th Aug 2011, 13:40
  #2510 (permalink)  
 
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Cool

Way back earlier in this thread, someone stated CX would be starting pax operations via Zurich this winter, and it was gospel as they were told by some salesmen in the USA.

Winter schedule is out and it's not on there.
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Old 31st Aug 2011, 07:27
  #2511 (permalink)  
 
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Eastern promise: Link-up of Manchester and Beijing airports could bring billions in Chinese investment | Manchester Evening News - menmedia.co.uk
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Old 1st Sep 2011, 05:37
  #2512 (permalink)  
zfw
 
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Manchester will not do more than 25 million in the next 10 years, when the PLC was spouting ridiculous figures of 35 million by 2015 we just laughed.
{It was quoted recently again by one senior member of management}
Do the sums..... We have Liverpool, Leeds, Sheffield, even Blackpool, these were little tin pot airports 10 years ago, but were in the Manchester catchment area for charters.
As the locos carry on their march these traditional charters have all but disappeared and their passengers?, gone to these airports for loco flights.
Manchester does not need Cathy, why would it?, with the far east and Asia served by Emirates, Etihad, Qatar, Singapore, and where do we expand on the USA services?, American, Continental, Delta, USair to name but a few, we may be able to fit in a direct west coast but i bet that will be on a 787 when they arrive, long and thin routes.
Manchester max figures 22.5 million in 2007 was fuelled by every one and his dog borrowing money and cheap flights, that bubble has gone, were back to 18.4 million at the moment. In 2007 T2 had 7.8 million pax, its now down to 4.5 million, hence Monarch and Ryanair being based there to increase footfall and revenue.
We may get a slight increase to around 20 million or so in the next few years but as for 35-50 million, it ain't going to happen in our lifetime.

zfw
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Old 1st Sep 2011, 07:27
  #2513 (permalink)  
 
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zfw

Sadly I have to agree with you except on all but one point.

As the locos carry on their march these traditional charters have all but disappeared
Traditional charters are undoubtedly on the decline but at well over 5 million ppa, still represents over 30% of Manchester's total passenger numbers. The question is, will the Loco's continue to expand at the same or higher rate than the decline in charter passengers given the increased competition from other airports.
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Old 1st Sep 2011, 08:46
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As someone in Manchester I still stand my ground that I refuse to use loco carriers - more than prepared to pay more for a better quality service. Problem is, having flown Thomson in June on their 738 to Naples it was like being on easy jet with legroom and that was disappointing. I still think a decent chunk/percentage of people are prepared to pay that bit more for a better service, these charter guys need to deliver it and market it. I would always prefer to fly Monarch or Britannia based on service in the past, now I feel competition is stiff to the extent of completely ripping out the idea of a good experience flying.
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Old 1st Sep 2011, 09:10
  #2515 (permalink)  
 
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ZFW
Blackpool and Sheffield are both going backwards
Leeds is almost full unless they do some quite major expansion to parking areas
Liverpool does well in loco market but Easy really wants to be at Manchester
and Ryanair could pull the plug in a flash if they fall out with airport
authorities.

Ian
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Old 1st Sep 2011, 09:44
  #2516 (permalink)  
 
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rose tinted glasses

Sounds like you have your rose tinted glasses on Ian, Ryanair could just as easily fall out with MAN and pull the plug there, they already have done so once in the recent past.
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Old 1st Sep 2011, 10:00
  #2517 (permalink)  
 
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RYR threw their teddy out of the pram at MAN because they couldn't get the deal they wanted. Now they are back again because they realise its a market they need to be in even if the price is higher than they may want to pay. More power to MAPLC for holding out - a good call.
Is this what has happened at MAN? There is a story that MANPLC has indeed done a deal with RYR to get them back rather than RYR going back to MAN and paying their previously announced fees.

Discuss.
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Old 1st Sep 2011, 10:50
  #2518 (permalink)  
 
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Hasn't it been discussed at length in the past do we need to ressurect the will FR stay or will they throw their toys out of the pram debate again. MOL said he had to pay more than he wanted to come back, maybe he did maybe he didn't. The one thing to be sure about is expect the unexpected
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Old 1st Sep 2011, 11:08
  #2519 (permalink)  
 
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Vinnym

Not a problem if they do,and as you say they have done it before and we are still here.
Manchester has probably the best mix of carriers of any airport in the UK,
you can choose what ever floats your boat Charter/loco/Legacy both European
and long haul ,new carriers are joing all the time and we have plenty of parking
and runway space.
Charters are a dying breed as more and more people go for flexibility and do their
own thing. I used to work for a large travel concern both in holiday and business travel and could see the IT market changing a long time ago. Very few people I work with would dream of going on a package holiday now as they book everything
on the internet as individual items taylored to their needs rather than the otherway
round even if it means flying from LPL or LBA etc
Of choice I would never fly Ryanair but many will but, I will always try and use Manchester as my airport of choice, not that I am flying much at moment
but thats another story as they say

Ian B
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Old 1st Sep 2011, 15:05
  #2520 (permalink)  
 
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Cool

Manchester does not need Cathy
whoever she may be!
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