MANCHESTER - 8
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I have heard rumours that Monarch are starting Madrid as well. Not bookable yet though but it was on wikipedia the other day.
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Long time lurker first time poster.
LN-KGL, whilst I have no doubt the figures about MAN vs OSL growth are true and fairly accurate, the rest of your post is just drivel.
This is far from the truth. If the Growth is soley 'ash related', then why were passenger figures rising before the aforementioned event started to affect passenger numbers?
Also, are you also saying that as the growth is soley 'ash related', that the new EK flight, new QR flight, new TP flight, the 6th based easyjet unit, the new Ryanair flights, a new based Jet2 unit and upgrade from B733 to B738 on some routes, as well as increases across the board from the likes of BD/AA and so on are having ZERO effect on MAN?
Yes, I will agree that the overall pax figure is still down from 2007 levels, but, rome wasnt built in a day and its going to take time to build back up again. We cant just click our fingers and it be back to 2007 levels overnight. Theres also events out of MAN's control that have hit our pax figures, such as XL going belly up, the big 4 charter ops merging into 2, and the smaller carriers also going belly up such as Eurocypria, Turkuaz and Kibris. These dont exactly help matters.
Also, worth noting is that yes, the 12 month rolling pax figure is still not as high as once was, but, it is in the + figures for the first time in ages, so, its going in the right direction.
Things will still pick up though. We have easyjet confirming based unit number 7, as well as promising further growth. Ryanair have said they will still grow at MAN, Jet2 have announced 4 new routes which presumably means another based unit as only a 2 weekly REU has been dropped for 2012 so far. That with Air Asia X confirming MAN is on their radar, the new Norweigan service, the 2nd daily Etihad in August, growth from Monarch in 2012 and Tunisair going year round to MIR. It all helps.
So, not quite the doom and gloom. As a last bit, with the reductions in pax numbers at STN still going down, combined with the above increases at MAN, I would not be at all surprised if MAN reaches number 3 for busiest UK airport again this year.
LN-KGL, whilst I have no doubt the figures about MAN vs OSL growth are true and fairly accurate, the rest of your post is just drivel.
More and less the sole reason for the "recovery" at MAN is only the cancelling out of the Icelandic ash effect - the airport still hasn't reached the level they had for their 12 month rolling numbers in March 2010 (24,000 passengers are missing for that).
Also, are you also saying that as the growth is soley 'ash related', that the new EK flight, new QR flight, new TP flight, the 6th based easyjet unit, the new Ryanair flights, a new based Jet2 unit and upgrade from B733 to B738 on some routes, as well as increases across the board from the likes of BD/AA and so on are having ZERO effect on MAN?
Yes, I will agree that the overall pax figure is still down from 2007 levels, but, rome wasnt built in a day and its going to take time to build back up again. We cant just click our fingers and it be back to 2007 levels overnight. Theres also events out of MAN's control that have hit our pax figures, such as XL going belly up, the big 4 charter ops merging into 2, and the smaller carriers also going belly up such as Eurocypria, Turkuaz and Kibris. These dont exactly help matters.
Also, worth noting is that yes, the 12 month rolling pax figure is still not as high as once was, but, it is in the + figures for the first time in ages, so, its going in the right direction.
Things will still pick up though. We have easyjet confirming based unit number 7, as well as promising further growth. Ryanair have said they will still grow at MAN, Jet2 have announced 4 new routes which presumably means another based unit as only a 2 weekly REU has been dropped for 2012 so far. That with Air Asia X confirming MAN is on their radar, the new Norweigan service, the 2nd daily Etihad in August, growth from Monarch in 2012 and Tunisair going year round to MIR. It all helps.
So, not quite the doom and gloom. As a last bit, with the reductions in pax numbers at STN still going down, combined with the above increases at MAN, I would not be at all surprised if MAN reaches number 3 for busiest UK airport again this year.
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delta154:
This is far from the truth. If the Growth is soley 'ash related', then why were passenger figures rising before the aforementioned event started to affect passenger numbers?
Also, are you also saying that as the growth is soley 'ash related', that the new EK flight, new QR flight, new TP flight, the 6th based easyjet unit, the new Ryanair flights, a new based Jet2 unit and upgrade from B733 to B738 on some routes, as well as increases across the board from the likes of BD/AA and so on are having ZERO effect on MAN?
This is far from the truth. If the Growth is soley 'ash related', then why were passenger figures rising before the aforementioned event started to affect passenger numbers?
Also, are you also saying that as the growth is soley 'ash related', that the new EK flight, new QR flight, new TP flight, the 6th based easyjet unit, the new Ryanair flights, a new based Jet2 unit and upgrade from B733 to B738 on some routes, as well as increases across the board from the likes of BD/AA and so on are having ZERO effect on MAN?
The growth numbers since October 2010 has been like this:
October 2010 +28,996 passengers
November 2010 +21,924 passengers
December 2010 +18,822 passengers
January 2011 +62,552 passengers
February 2011 +39,011 passengers
March 2011 -44,809 passengers
April 2011 +351,352 passengers (+50,000 with ash effect subtracted)
May 2011 +160,106 passengers (+60,000 with ash effect subtracted)
The trend line in the graph takes in to effect the ash and shows a too low bottom and also a way too positive prognosis for June. It seems like around 300,000 passengers were affected in April 2010 and around 100,000 passengers and this must be subtracted from April and May this year to find the real growth. So the real growth now based on this last 8 months performance is around +2%. On a forum with dark bluegreen background colour I predicted some few months ago that MAN will end up with around 3% real growth for 2011. Translated in passenger numbers will this give around 18.6 million in 2011 (included the 400,000 no-ash-effect passengers).
The real problem for MAN has been to replace the charter segment that is in decline with LCCs. The nearby LPL and LBA have both profited on this.
It is indeed more complex than looking into one segment with a short time horizon. The start of the decline in domestic passengers fits like hand in glow with the sale of BACon to flybe. The growth by Emirates more and less equals out the decline at BA to LHR and LGW. In other words, many passengers select Emirates in stead of BA (London Airways) for long haul destinations to the east.
The decline in passenger numbers between January 2005 and today for the charter and the domestic segment has been 4.7 million passengers, and only 2 million of these has been replace with "new" scheduled international passengers. The decline in domestic passengers versus the growth in scheduled intl. doesn't give a correct picture, but is partly a result of long haul passengers trying to bypass the two London airports.
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LN-KGL.
We may not be in posative growth yet, but we are in growth none-the-less.
The main contention is that you said:
But your own figures prove the figures were growing before the ash affected passenger numbers:
So my main point was that the ash has helped skew the figures into an even bigger posative, but, it is not the 'sole' reason for the growth.
Also, I dont know where you studied maths, but, your 'trendlines' leave out a lot to be desired.
You say growth will only be around 2%, well, I disagree and think it will be more.
We have many more seats available this year compared to last, added to the general growth of the exsisting services to to a 'little' bit more disposable income, and without posting reams and reams of sums at this time of night, I expect overall yearly growth to be nearer 5-6%.
This has been an issue in the past, but, MAN is now winning the passengers back through the loco growth. MAN actually has more loco operators than LPL and LBA now, probably more than both combined.
Easyjet has grown from the 2 based GB units in 2008 to 7 units next year, as opposed to LPL's 10 units considering the base has been open 10 years more than MAN. The RYR growth to other Euro-bases will more than likely continue, as will Jet2's growth. Monarch are about to become a fully fledged loco, with MAN the first base to benefit from this, then we have Air Berlin, Germanwings, Flybe and now Norwegian. LBA has 2 RYR aircraft, a Jet2 base now a similar size to MAN, a token flybe operation and thats about it for Loco. Liverpool has Wizz, Ryanair and Easyjet, with again a token flybe operation. So, its obvious MAN now once again has the tools to re-capture its lost passengers.
MAN is also actively trying to make sure it doesnt miss this boat again and have to play catch up, as its trying to make sure it is known to the loco long haul operators. Air Asia X has said MAN is on their radar for a launch within the next 12 months, the Air Canada loco has selected MAN as a departure point, and Jetstar Australia has quoted MAN as a destination in the past. Add this to the already operating Air Blue of Pakistan, and there we have it.
It may not be the 11.4% growth rate your beloved OSL is growing, but, MAN is on the up.
We may not be in posative growth yet, but we are in growth none-the-less.
The main contention is that you said:
More and less the sole reason for the "recovery" at MAN is only the cancelling out of the Icelandic ash effect
October 2010 +28,996 passengers
November 2010 +21,924 passengers
December 2010 +18,822 passengers
January 2011 +62,552 passengers
February 2011 +39,011 passengers
November 2010 +21,924 passengers
December 2010 +18,822 passengers
January 2011 +62,552 passengers
February 2011 +39,011 passengers
Also, I dont know where you studied maths, but, your 'trendlines' leave out a lot to be desired.
You say growth will only be around 2%, well, I disagree and think it will be more.
We have many more seats available this year compared to last, added to the general growth of the exsisting services to to a 'little' bit more disposable income, and without posting reams and reams of sums at this time of night, I expect overall yearly growth to be nearer 5-6%.
The real problem for MAN has been to replace the charter segment that is in decline with LCCs. The nearby LPL and LBA have both profited on this
Easyjet has grown from the 2 based GB units in 2008 to 7 units next year, as opposed to LPL's 10 units considering the base has been open 10 years more than MAN. The RYR growth to other Euro-bases will more than likely continue, as will Jet2's growth. Monarch are about to become a fully fledged loco, with MAN the first base to benefit from this, then we have Air Berlin, Germanwings, Flybe and now Norwegian. LBA has 2 RYR aircraft, a Jet2 base now a similar size to MAN, a token flybe operation and thats about it for Loco. Liverpool has Wizz, Ryanair and Easyjet, with again a token flybe operation. So, its obvious MAN now once again has the tools to re-capture its lost passengers.
MAN is also actively trying to make sure it doesnt miss this boat again and have to play catch up, as its trying to make sure it is known to the loco long haul operators. Air Asia X has said MAN is on their radar for a launch within the next 12 months, the Air Canada loco has selected MAN as a departure point, and Jetstar Australia has quoted MAN as a destination in the past. Add this to the already operating Air Blue of Pakistan, and there we have it.
It may not be the 11.4% growth rate your beloved OSL is growing, but, MAN is on the up.
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Hardly fair to compare MAN with OSL. OSL is a capital city airport built on huge central Government investment, and has no local competition. Fairly easy to sustain impressive growth in such a benign environment.
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The day after FR announced MAN-MAD, There was a Director business brief at the MAN base who said they were "pissed off" (his words) as MAD was already in the pipeline and MAN knew it. Yet they let an airline who they (MAN) had serious issues with potentially jeopardise what has been steady, consistent and reliable growth shown by Easyjet.
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Also in response to Jamie2k9:
I consider MAN and DUB to be fairly similar markets, and if DUB can support 4-5 daily MAD, Im fairly confident MAN can support a 9 weekly service.
At the end of the day, there are a lot of routes that work at MAN that probably wouldnt at LPL, the prime example being Bremen. Ryanair moved it 'a few miles down the road', and it went from being a route with 80%+ load factors to being dropped. So it seems that 'few miles' makes a difference.
Ryanair has the low fares going for it, easyjet has the 2 big bases at each end, so, unless the 2 rumoured new flights of Air Europa and Air Nostrum come online, I dont see RYR or Easy going anywhere.
As Ryaniar and Easyjet couldn't both operate it from Liverpool why is MAN going to be different a few miles down the road. By the end if next March one of them will drop MAD but which one it remains to be seen
At the end of the day, there are a lot of routes that work at MAN that probably wouldnt at LPL, the prime example being Bremen. Ryanair moved it 'a few miles down the road', and it went from being a route with 80%+ load factors to being dropped. So it seems that 'few miles' makes a difference.
Ryanair has the low fares going for it, easyjet has the 2 big bases at each end, so, unless the 2 rumoured new flights of Air Europa and Air Nostrum come online, I dont see RYR or Easy going anywhere.
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OSL
I must correct myself before someone else does. OSL does have competition from Torp and Rygge (Thank You, Google). Nevertheless, compared to MAN, OSL benefits from being a capital city and having the national flag carrier on board.
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having the national flag carrier on board.
Precisely none ! The A330 / A340 fleets are based out of Copenhagen and Stockholm with Oslo a mere feeder to both. Does that sound familiar?
*runs and hides*
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Isn't that a hinderance? How many direct long haul routes do SAS offer from Oslo?
Precisely none ! The A330 / A340 fleets are based out of Copenhagen and Stockholm with Oslo a mere feeder to both. Does that sound familiar?
Precisely none ! The A330 / A340 fleets are based out of Copenhagen and Stockholm with Oslo a mere feeder to both. Does that sound familiar?
The main difference is, how many scheduled routes does BA offer on its own metal from MAN? 2 (LHR/LGW), 3 if you count the sun air flight (BLL).
How many scheduled routes do SAS offer from Oslo? 45. Thats the main point. Im not turining this into another 'BA neglects the regions' thing just mearly pointing out the advantage OSL has with its flag carrier.
Oh and skipness, for the record, SAS does offer long haul from OSL, the SK907 to EWR. Its only one route, but its not 'precisely none'.
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Jet2 have announced 4 new routes which presumably means another based unit as only a 2 weekly REU has been dropped for 2012 so far
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MAN traffic trends
The rolling pax figure graphs at post #2144 make interesting reading. What we can see is that the steep decline in domestic traffic looks to have reached a natural base level now and is unlikely to decline much further. The effect of better rail service is now embedded and the only factor which might impact is transfer of international traffic away from connecting over London, choosing to connect at an overseas hub instead. This loss (segment transfer) might be offset to some extent by UK traffic connecting over MAN's increasing choices of route / carrier / frequency to major hubs.
Charter decline has flattened out, but if it continues it is likely to transfer to alternative loco flights, which are increasingly available at MAN, rather than leaking to LPL, LBA etc.
Full service 'legacy' flag carriers are not dead, and MAN is their most likely UK port of call once London opportunities have been exhausted. As well as TAP, I think we'll see a few more once-familiar tails back on the the apron before long.
Charter decline has flattened out, but if it continues it is likely to transfer to alternative loco flights, which are increasingly available at MAN, rather than leaking to LPL, LBA etc.
Full service 'legacy' flag carriers are not dead, and MAN is their most likely UK port of call once London opportunities have been exhausted. As well as TAP, I think we'll see a few more once-familiar tails back on the the apron before long.
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Charter decline has flattened out, but if it continues it is likely to transfer to alternative loco flights, which are increasingly available at MAN, rather than leaking to LPL, LBA etc.
Full service 'legacy' flag carriers are not dead, and MAN is their most likely UK port of call once London opportunities have been exhausted. As well as TAP, I think we'll see a few more once-familiar tails back on the the apron before long
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Reus on sale 2xWeek alongside BCN which has just been upped from 4xWeek to 5xWeek
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Oslo SAS
SOE
Unlike you to be behind the times or am I being thick and it was a
deliberate mistake - don't answer that one!!!!!!!!!
SAS operate Newark A333 direct non-stop from Oslo SK907 started this year
and seems to be continuing this winter.
However I think there was a price to pay as I am sure Continental were
double daily in summer or 10/11 weekly and they reduced it back to daily.
Let me get this right, Manchester - Madrid is operated by Ryanair now,
easy soon plus Iberia and Monarch/Air Europa. A route which has not operated for a few years now has four potential airlines.
Yes, I saw the IAG story in ABTN and the Monarch article and nowhere did I see Manchester mentioned specifically - is this a case of two and two is five or are these credible rumours?
Am I right in thinking both Iberia and Monarch have operated Madrid in the past and the latter within the last five years?
Pete
Unlike you to be behind the times or am I being thick and it was a
deliberate mistake - don't answer that one!!!!!!!!!
SAS operate Newark A333 direct non-stop from Oslo SK907 started this year
and seems to be continuing this winter.
However I think there was a price to pay as I am sure Continental were
double daily in summer or 10/11 weekly and they reduced it back to daily.
Let me get this right, Manchester - Madrid is operated by Ryanair now,
easy soon plus Iberia and Monarch/Air Europa. A route which has not operated for a few years now has four potential airlines.
Yes, I saw the IAG story in ABTN and the Monarch article and nowhere did I see Manchester mentioned specifically - is this a case of two and two is five or are these credible rumours?
Am I right in thinking both Iberia and Monarch have operated Madrid in the past and the latter within the last five years?
Pete