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Old 16th Jul 2016, 11:15
  #7921 (permalink)  
 
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55000 pax over 2 days at say 180 average per flight would be more than 300 flights. they probably mean pax passing through the airport, both arrivals and departures.
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Old 18th Jul 2016, 18:17
  #7922 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair starting to update S17 flights:

Alicante 1 x Daily (up from 5 weekly)
Malaga 5 x weekly (up from 4 weekly)
Tenerife 3 x weekly (up from 2 weekly)
Lanzarote 2 x weekly

Gdansk 2 x weekly
Warsaw 2 x weekly
Wroclaw 2 x weekly

Dublin 2 x daily
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 09:41
  #7923 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair new routes

Ryanair has announced 3 new routes for summer 17 commencing March 2017.


Daily Palma Mallorca flights,
4 x week Faro flight (Mon, Wed, Fri, Sun)
2 x Week Barcelona Girona (Tues and Sat)


NE
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 10:06
  #7924 (permalink)  
 
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Excellent news
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 14:23
  #7925 (permalink)  
 
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Excellent range of exotic new routes. I hope EK777NCL et al are happy. No doubt he/she will rejoice when local jobs start being lost and aircraft moved out. The supply chain will be hit greatly. Local caterers will cut jobs as FR will not uplift anything at NCL. There will be fewer planes based there so less parking charges. The airport charge £360 per person per year which will be lost.

Still I suppose the business model of 'getting as many people as we can as drunk as we can then dump them on the airlines to sort out and deny all blame' will keep stakeholders happy. Or perhaps the revenue hit will be made up by selling more Boots meal deals? Or perhaps that last minute travel insurance machine or that odd self service shop will make some lovely money.

I'm still waiting for the £20 returns to London and the like.
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 14:59
  #7926 (permalink)  
 
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HMB - while you make some valid points, not just a tiny bit of pot and kettle??
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 15:24
  #7927 (permalink)  
 
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How so?

Filler.
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 15:37
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Perhaps Hearty Meatballs thinks that NCL should have refused FR expansion plans?

Of course there is a risk that FR will scare away U2 and LS but judging by the prices that all companies are charging on popular routes to the likes of PMI and ALC, FR must think there is some opportunity to grow the market. FR do not generally take U2 head on on the same routes, they will have a business case behind this - they are taking on U2 here, not some small time operator who they can crush on price.

As for the fees, I thought it was generally accepted that regional airports make most of their money these days from non aviation activities such as car parking and retail?
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 15:48
  #7929 (permalink)  
 
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Departing this weekend £250 return on Jet2 to AGP, £205 on easyJet to ALC. Two of the most popular routes and you don't get any more high season than this weekend. Yet I can get a family of for off to the Costas last minute for less than a grand.

It has been said that FR will stimulate demand when it won't. It will trash (already poor) yields.

If you would rather the airport be served from outside then fine. There are many aspiring aviators on here. Let's give them a local career. Not some hourly paid contractor rubbish stuck abroad.

If everything is served from outside all we will be left with is a few extremely underpaid and undervalued ground jobs.
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 15:53
  #7930 (permalink)  
 
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£200 will get you to Cyprus and Malta, £140 to Greece, £160 for Spain, Croatia for £190, Portugal for £230. Bizarrely it's £400 for Turkey.

For a Saturday to Saturday last minute super high peak booking. Good value fares there if you ask me.
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 17:42
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On to another bugbear of mine... Ryanair announced three new routes today (well, one of them is a resumption of GRO but let's not be churlish). Today's headline in the Chronicle: 'Hello sunshine, Ryanair announces eight new summer holiday routes from Newcastle'. Even in the first sentence it says they have only announced three.
You couldn't make it up. Unless you write for the Chronicle in which case you obviously can...
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 17:56
  #7932 (permalink)  
 
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Ryanair.

HMB you are broadly right.

The airlines are struggling now following the vote a few weeks ago and its likely to become more difficult in 2017. Hence the low fares now being made available.

OVER CAPACITY BIG TIME HERE.

I also think that there will be cutbacks eventually by Jet 2, Thomson, T Cook Etc. Less Based aircraft a distinct possibility. Easyjet could dissapear !

Only time will tell.
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 17:59
  #7933 (permalink)  
 
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Some value fares at the moment yes if you pick and choose but it is a fact that if planes are not full prices drop in the LCC world. Short term bookings in the industry have dropped like a stone since the Brexit announcement and prices reflect this. Otherwise why are flight for next April and next August at the same price level as peak summer 2016?

I may be in the minority but I don't think £250 flight only to ALC with no luggage is particularly cheap. But then I only do 100 segments a year.
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 18:33
  #7934 (permalink)  
 
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It will bring the fares down and I don't think there will be over capacity.
Newcastle been calling out for more flights to Spain as the flights are often full and any few seats left sold at stupid prices.

Don't forget we don't have as many flights to turkey next year and no Tunisia or Egypt too at the minute so these flights are needed to help passengers of north east go on holiday so where.

We will fill these.

As for 8 new routes they are for summer from Ryanair so not new as route to ncl but new for Ryanair it's a play of words.
However I think we will see more by the end of the year.

As for Easyjet wonder how they will react.
Base may close but that's just rumours and if the base closed I believe that most of the routes will be kept just fly them in from there other bases

Still money for airport and passengers can fly
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 18:41
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Well that's your opinion and mine is that a £250 high season last minute return flight for a week represents very good value. I never mentioned cheap.

Brexit and terrorism play only a part of the picture. How else do you explain terror hotbed Turkey being £400? Over capacity is a major factor.

A combination of massive over capacity, a temporary loss of confidence due to brexit related scare mongering, the inevitable terror rampage on the costas and the APD reductions north of the border will lead to very bleak times for NCL.

I forsee:
TCX being 2 only with no Avion Express and their extra capacity
Thomson will be safe at 3 aircraft
T3 down to 2 J41
BMIr - gone
EZY - gone
Jet2 down to 5 and then who knows. They've picked the wrong time to have shiny new planes come online. They're over stretched and vulnerable.

Ryanair and easyJet will serve NCL from their respective down route bases. A Ryanair base will be short lived.

So that's a loss of five based planes. Lots of jobs lost. The supply chain severely impacted. Still £20 returns.......
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 18:52
  #7936 (permalink)  
 
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HMB - Understand you points and reasons but there isn't any solid facts to back this up.
I don't see the charter aircraft decreasing unless TCX buy flights off the LCC?

Eastern maybe but they have a niche market and they have kept to that.
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 19:05
  #7937 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by HeartyMeatballs
Well that's your opinion and mine is that a £250 high season last minute return flight for a week represents very good value. I never mentioned cheap.

Brexit and terrorism play only a part of the picture. How else do you explain terror hotbed Turkey being £400? Over capacity is a major factor.

A combination of massive over capacity, a temporary loss of confidence due to brexit related scare mongering, the inevitable terror rampage on the costas and the APD reductions north of the border will lead to very bleak times for NCL.

I forsee:
TCX being 2 only with no Avion Express and their extra capacity
Thomson will be safe at 3 aircraft
T3 down to 2 J41
BMIr - gone
EZY - gone
Jet2 down to 5 and then who knows. They've picked the wrong time to have shiny new planes come online. They're over stretched and vulnerable.

Ryanair and easyJet will serve NCL from their respective down route bases. A Ryanair base will be short lived.

So that's a loss of five based planes. Lots of jobs lost. The supply chain severely impacted. Still £20 returns.......
I think that adds up to 8 based aircraft. Who mentioned a Ryanair base. Jet 2 seem to be going from strength to strength. Why all the doom and gloom unless you are related to the bloke who predicted the end of the world and that aint happened yet!
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 19:08
  #7938 (permalink)  
 
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TXC have previously blocked booked seats on EZY. I don't have solid facts. If we all relied on solid facts its doubtful this forum would exist . I just see things they did back in 07/08. Boom time lead to bust. We're on a building wave and that wave is about to hit the shore and come tumbling down.

T3 are dropping BHX. ABZ is not the licence to print money that it once was. In fact T3 could shut NCL and do ABZ-NCL-CWL-NCL-ABZ. That way the only two NCL routes can be operated by ABZ base. Would people on here rejoice if T3 closed like they would if EZ went?

I will say one thing to the NCL fan boys - I don't believe what I think is NCL specific however NCL is more exposed than any.

Ryanair base has been mentioned here many times and has been long rumoured. I don't think I'm doom and gloom. I'm all for sustainable growth supporting local jobs and businesses. We have a lot more at stake than simply boosting passenger numbers.
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 19:17
  #7939 (permalink)  
 
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I suspect HMB has more "skin in the game" than other posters, and his analysis is at least as realistic as the other more optimistic posts - he also quite rightly focuses on the greater benefit to the local economy of based units rather than having the same number of flights from other bases.

The North East is a peripheral area and unless something changes drastically, will always remain weaker and poorer than other areas - when the economy catches a cold, we sneeze first.

It's this that will have a greater impact on the development of the airport than the individual strategies of airlines and their comings and goings.
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Old 19th Jul 2016, 19:18
  #7940 (permalink)  
 
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Newcastle has been left behind for a few years now.
Look at the recent growth of edi and man and even lgw!

As for Jet2 new base at BHX starting with 4 aircraft.
I think that people are wanting holidays and the whole of the U.K. Market hasn't gone back to the 2007/08 levels yet.

It's not all doom and I hope your wrong with the big rise and bust as per 2007/08!!
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