NEWCASTLE - 8

[SWBKCB]

Not a bad set of figures

foreign_airport total_pax_2016 total_pax_2015 percent
BERLIN 4,309 267 1513.86
IVALO 1,035 296 249.66
TURIN 326 121 169.42
FUERTEVENTURA 3,653 1,617 125.91
BARCELONA 6,241 3,151 98.06
CORK 1,006 556 80.94
BRIDGETOWN 482 289 66.78
MALAGA 12,257 7,767 57.81
ROVANIEMI 1,258 818 53.79
ARRECIFE 11,044 7,184 53.73
LAS PALMAS 5,913 3,915 51.03
SOFIA 92 65 41.54
TENERIFE 20,664 15,214 35.82
DUBLIN 22,169 16,389 35.27
INNSBRUCK 224 176 27.27
ALICANTE 16,950 14,208 19.30
DUSSELDORF 4,540 3,838 18.29
PRAGUE 2,813 2,420 16.24
ENONTEKIO 378 335 12.84
MALTA 2,219 2,016 10.07
GENEVA 5,793 5,398 7.32
COPENHAGEN 2,098 1,975 6.23
KRAKOW 2,604 2,465 5.64
BRUSSELS 1,356 1,299 4.39
(NEWARK) 1,111 1,094 1.55
PARIS (CDG) 13,286 13,131 1.18
DUBAI (DWC) 291 0 0.00
FUNCHAL 393 0 0.00
GDANSK 2,437 0 0.00
GRENOBLE 160 0 0.00
HAMBURG 161 0 0.00
KITTILA 3,009 0 0.00
LILLE 39 0 0.00
LYON 39 0 0.00
MAASTRICHT 55 0 0.00
MUNICH 289 0 0.00
PAPHOS 1,147 0 0.00
WARSAW 2,700 0 0.00
WROCLAW 2,672 0 0.00
AMSTERDAM 30,136 30,149 -0.04
DUBAI 21,034 21,132 -0.46
FARO 2,144 2,535 -15.42
SALZBURG 324 460 -29.57
STAVANGER 679 1,094 -37.93
CHAMBERY 0 371 -100.00
GOTEBORG 0 8 -100.00
TROMSOE 0 47 -100.00
Inter Total 211,530 161,800

[SWBKCB]

Domestic not so good

ABERDEEN 1,180 1,808 -34.73
BELFAST CITY 0 1,417 -100.00
BELFAST INTER 20,991 19,389 8.26
BIRMINGHAM 0 646 -100.00
BRISTOL 14,270 13,875 2.85
CARDIFF WALES 733 874 -16.13
EXETER 3,270 2,952 10.77
FARNBOROUGH 40 0 0.00
GATWICK 40 0 0.00
HEATHROW 41,396 41,832 -1.04
ISLE OF MAN 341 372 -8.33
LIVERPOOL 0 212 -100.00
LUTON 0 80 -100.00
MANCHESTER 0 80 -100.00
PRESTWICK 0 10 -100.00
SOUTHAMPTON 8,627 8,898 -3.05
STANSTED 0 1,002 -100.00
Domestic total 90,888 93,447

[EK77WNCL]

I don't think FR to Malta would have that much effect on EZY to be honest, as Ryanair do tend to stimulate markets, and Malta seems to be getting quite a bit more popular now.

Having said that I'd much rather Chania, Corfu and or Paphos, they would seem more flexible

Loads looking remarkably good on Berlin, that's filling me with confidence. Polish routes also very very good loads, but yields were 100% trashed this winter.

One thing striking me is how dire the load factors now are to Dusseldorf on the A319/A320... Same pax as EZY on double the flights, sometimes with a larger aircraft. Obviously it needs time to grow into the bigger A/C and I'm sure it will but right now, not amazing

I hope after a weak 2016, the lack of cannibalistic and barely economically viable capacity expansion (yes Qatar and Etihad I'm looking at you), might give Emirates a stronger 10th anniversary year

[jensdad]

I think Eurowings could be doing a hell of a lot more to publicise the fact that a) they fly from Newcastle to Dusseldorf, and b) they exist!
I don't remember ever seeing a single advertisement, and I suspect that mentioning the name 'Eurowings' to the average person in this neck of the woods would be met with a blank stare.

[ash666]

Is there a reason they go to Dusseldorf?

I would have thought that going to a major hub like Frankfurt would be much more profitable.

[SWBKCB]

Polish routes also very very good loads, but yields were 100% trashed this winter.

What are you basing that comment on?

Same pax as EZY on double the flights, sometimes with a larger aircraft.

Presumably you're referring to SXF? Same country, but not necessarily the same market - might be the same number of pax with more flights, but how much are they paying (have a look at the prices)?

I've certainly seen adverts for EWG, but I think nowadays people are more informed/swayed by sites like Skyscanner, Expedia, etc

Availability of suitable slots is normally mentioned in relation to FRA

[bigjim99]

Originally Posted by ash666

Is there a reason they go to Dusseldorf?

I would have thought that going to a major hub like Frankfurt would be much more profitable.

I've done NCL DUS many times; can be excellent for cheap connections on EW and AB (providing you aren't scheduled to depart around the curfew!). Experience is much better than AMS or LHR.

Only thing is that a more frequent connection to NCL would be helpful to make it work as a hub.

[EK77WNCL]

Well to be fair I don't know about Ryanair, but I'd say it's a reasonable assumption to make that selling one way seats at an average of £2-£10 to get your planes 70% full... Probably isn't that much of a viable business case

Yes, however, fares are higher this year, and that is a good thing. As is getting almost 7500 people to fly to Poland in the low season. Even if it was cheap, then you can hope they'll come back

Again, yeah I know EWG pax pay more (not too much more though to be fair) that EZY pax... But even still, no half full A320 is going to stick around for long. Except I'm very confident by this time next year 5,000 pax per month at least, will be commonplace and the route will grow into it's new aircraft

[SWBKCB]

Right - I was taking "trashed" to mean lower than expected. I haven't seen the low fares quoted (probably cos I haven't been looking), but isn't using such fares to attract customers and generate awareness what Ryanair are based on - and that business model seems to have worked?

I've also no idea what the market for the North East to Poland is - city breaks, stag/hen or VFR, but if aimed at Poles in the northeast, Christmas/New Year might not be low season!

There are some very low fares available on EWG if you can chose you days/dates, but if you need to travel in a couple of weeks they tend to be far higher than EZY to SXF, so might not be as bad as feared (and most flights are on 319's so 60% full! )

[jensdad]

Berlin and Dusseldorf are so far apart that I doubt Easy's and Eurowings' markets overlap much, if at all. Eurowings' nearest competitors at NCL are KLM to Amsterdam, and BMI to Brussels. And if you're driving, Ryanair to Wroclaw are Easy's nearest competition at Berlin.

[AerRyan]

The fact that some suggested that DUS and SXF are the same market is baffling in itself.

[EK77WNCL]

Can I just point out 2 things. Although amazing deals are available with them £300 and less to Asia, South Africa etc. Because of the lack of Frankfurt flight, and therefore 2 stops necessary via Dusseldorf, hardly anyone ever considers Lufthansa from the north east. Also DUS only being 6 weekly and not timed very well for many connections, makes it less favourable.

The other thing is, I never suggested they were the same market. I said they use the same aircraft.

DUS is a good flight, I've used it and I will use it again. DUS is an alright airport, and I don't mind stopping twice in either MUC or FRA because they're some of the best airports I've ever used. I just want to see Lufty and Star grow at NCL with a Frankfurt link. Maybe if Eurowings takes over Brussels from bmi...

[tigertanaka]

I would love a FRA connection, DUS is very much akin to having a link to STN (nice to have but not as good as LHR). A flight in the middle of the day if you are connecting on to Europe or North America is not ideal either.

Recently I had to go to to LNZ in Austria which is basically a Star Alliance/bucket & spade airport and ended up getting a train to EDI to get a flight to FRA and then on to LNZ. NCL-DUS was a non starter as the later departure time, 2 connections plus the horrible non Schengen>Schengen terminal change at FRA would have turned a half day meeting into a 3 day trip.

Star have such domination in Germany, Austria, Belgium & Switzerland and a FRA connection would give us better access to secondary cities in these countries.

However from the perspective of FRA and LH, they probably do not see a NCL link as high up on their priority list. Maybe a double daily (morning/evening) DUS would be the most realistic improvement we can hope for?

[NCL-TRC]

LH FRA

As much as I'd like to see the return of Lufthansa / a FRA link I doubt it'll happen anytime soon. A more realistic alternative might come in the form of MUC depending on how quickly Eurowings decides to expand the new operation there. MUC is also a lot nicer to transfer through as opposed to FRA.
That said flight times will play a big factor, you'd really need two daily to properly open up connections, so perhaps BMI with a LH codeshare would be more workable.

[EK77WNCL]

Well, it looks rather inevitable that soon, Brussels is going to be a Eurowings stronghold, with Brussels Airlines short/medium haul (at least) being swallowed up. That begs the question, are we better off with a x6 weekly A320 to Brussels, lower fares, as opposed to the current x13 weekly setup with higher fares?

Personally I think we might be... But only IF they do transfer BM to x13/14 weekly Frankfurt or Munich

2 daily DUS would be lovely but I don't know if Eurowings would be able to justify sending their A320's. It was much more likely with the CRJ's. Unless... Eurowings, Air Berlin and Flybe fancy setting up some kind of menage a trois with 2 daily Dashes. Eurowings flights opped by Flybe under agreement with Air Berlin or something like that... There's a lot of overlapping going on in Germany at the minute

[HH6702]

Just flew back into Manchester from Hamburg with eurowings on there A320
Around 70 people on the flight which seats 180..

Maybe an over kill with seats on the route with EZY,FR,LH etc

[SWBKCB]

That begs the question, are we better off with a x6 weekly A320 to Brussels, lower fares, as opposed to the current x13 weekly setup with higher fares?

Depends what you mean by better off - is the region better off with more city breaks or better connectivity for business? Same for the airport - which do they make more out of?

What sort of operation is Air Berlin nowadays? Thought all there skeds are going to Eurowings and the rest to TUI?

Nerd point - has there ever been an LH FRA service (or have I misunderstood NCL-TRC?) Before my time, but didn't British Airways do a service combined with BHX in the 80's?

[EK77WNCL]

If Eurowings takover Brussels and we lose BM outright, we'll be worse off...

If they swap BRU for FRA/MUC, we'll be better off

6 weekly BRU would probably still work out for business. Hypothetically, £300 return with BM, or £50-100 return with BM and 1 night in a hotel, for business there might not be any difference.

As you mentione, it would open up BRU more to city breaks, and I would hope a return to 2 daily might be a thought in their head down the line, although it's debatable whether we could support it. I think with low fares maybe we could.

I'm sure FRA/MUC link would be better off for business and connecting traffic than BRU (except people who want to be in BRU - which will probably reduce come Brexit and the market demograpics of NCL-BRU will change)

[jensdad]

SWB, British Airways used to do a daily to Frankfurt, operated by a Birmex (remember them?) Gulfstream 1. Those were the days. Direct, I think it was.
The flight nos. were BA5744/5745. I really need to get out more.

[Heathrow Harry]

never understood why NCL has a flight to Dusseldorf but not FRA - Dusseldorf is a fine place but I'd have thought more Business was done in FRA

Bit like flying to Philadelphia rather than New York