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NEWCASTLE - 8

Old 9th Jan 2017, 00:28
  #8521 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
Age: 22
Posts: 1,169
I think these are exactly the things the airport need to advertise... Let people know Madrid is new, let them know it's a city worth visiting, tell them there's more to Spain, and especially for the North East... Go and see a football match and have a weekend away

1 year ago yesterday I flew NCL-BCN on the Friday night, back Sunday night. Bar our school trip party of 8-ish, most of the rest of the passengers were there to see Barca play, and I'd have said about half of the passengers were the same people on both flights. About 90% full IIRC, not bad for January but the flights were about 50 return

SWBKCB - I had to check it wasn't April Fools Day when I read your reply, I can't believe we agree on something... Let alone 2 things!

I agree as well, it has to be a US airline for the connectivity and that's why I think Jetblue is pretty much perfect for us. Lower fares, better service and product (compered to the European image of Low Cost Carriers) and connections at JFK. But it obviously depends if they do go transatlantic. I know we're a small market but it's a chance for them to avoid going head to head with NAX.

Yeah again you're right and not only that, Dusseldorf isn't a nice airport to transfer in really... There's not a whole lot to do unless 1. You're in the LH lounge, 2. You don't bore easily and are happy in a cafe for 3/4 hours or 3. You smoke and are sociable and get drawn into conversations in the smoking areas. I did #2 on the way out and was bored shi*less and #3 on the way back and almost missed my flight. If the connection is less than 2 hours it's wonderful but after that you start struggling - you can go to the observation deck on the train if you go through security though, but I'd be wary and only do that if I had about 4 hours.

It amazes me that bmi regional don't fly NCL-FRA, and it also amazes me that Berlin is only just coming back and that one or all of Hamburg, Hannover and Munich haven't been reinstated after HLX went bust. I hope Eurowings might change that, especially in the case of Munich at least
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Old 9th Jan 2017, 11:55
  #8522 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Scotland
Posts: 1,863
November Provisional stats:

BRU: -10%
CPH: An extra 3 passengers!
CDG: -6%
SXF: 2677
DUS: +1%
ORK: +189%
DUB: +30%
AMS: -3%
ALC: +19%
BCN: +33%
AGP: +79%
ACE: +33%
FUE: +69%
LPA: +30%
TFS: +12%
SVG: -51%
GVA: -54%
PRG: -9%
GDN: 2074
KRK: 2368
WMI: 2262
WRO: 2112
DXB: -2%

LHR: +3%
BFS: +2%
CWL: +10%
EXT: +20%
SOU: +4%
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Old 9th Jan 2017, 13:34
  #8523 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: davenport IA
Age: 65
Posts: 387
no brs figures shown. Is there any reason.
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Old 9th Jan 2017, 13:42
  #8524 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Cheshire
Posts: 1,065
Where are you seeing Nov. stats? I can still only get October's on the CAA web site.
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Old 9th Jan 2017, 13:43
  #8525 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Scotland
Posts: 1,863
BRS figures not reported yet.
GrahamK is offline  
Old 9th Jan 2017, 16:14
  #8526 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: UK
Age: 49
Posts: 1,067
Im guessing the 2% drop for DXB is not really of concern. Think GLA was up however. The calculated load factors for EDI QR are not great, that route remains hit or miss, which is surprising.
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Old 9th Jan 2017, 16:50
  #8527 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Scotland
Posts: 1,863
BHX-DXB had a 4% decline despite having a 3rd daily flight. Overall NCL-DXB is up for the year i believe
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Old 9th Jan 2017, 18:39
  #8528 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Solihull
Age: 56
Posts: 3,149
BHX-DXB

GrahamK

Are you on about November 16? If we are it is like comparing apples and pears. BHX - DXB was three daily in November 2015 and in November 16 it was two daily for the whole month.

Also November 2015 BHX - DOH was nil as it hadn't started and in November 16 I guess it was around 10-12000 pax.

BHX-DXB November 15 52890 average 294 pax load factor 73% (pre 380)
BHX-DXB November 16 50774 based on -4% but I have not seen any figures, which equates to 423 per flight at 81% which is very much okay although I noticed fares were slightly softer than usual although not at Qatar levels.

The cancellation of EK41/42 during November was not a last minute decision but the official explanation was never given publicly and it was presumed due to pressure on yields as it was the first winter with Qatar in the fray.

However November is usually a good month but November 2015 flagged up warnings with 73% on EK before the A380 (89% in Nov 2014) as it had not been that low for years.

Pete
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Old 9th Jan 2017, 19:12
  #8529 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Cheshire
Posts: 1,065
Please can somebody explain where you are seeing these figures by route for various airports for November 2016?
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Old 9th Jan 2017, 20:13
  #8530 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: Scotland
Posts: 1,863
MANFOD, see PMs
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Old 9th Jan 2017, 21:47
  #8531 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Cheshire
Posts: 1,065
Thanks GrahamK. Have just replied.
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Old 9th Jan 2017, 21:58
  #8532 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
Age: 22
Posts: 1,169
Gdansk: 8 return journeys, 3024 seats, 68.58% LF approx 130 pax
Warsaw: 9 return journeys, 3402 seats, 66.49% LF c. 126 pax
Wroclaw: 8 return journeys, 3024 seats, 69.84% LF c. 132 pax

Krakow: 8 return journeys, 2368-3024 seats, 78.31-100% LF c.148 pax

Berlin: 13 return journeys, 4056 seats, 66% LF c. 103 pax

Oh dear :/

You all know I'm often very optimistic but I don't feel good about these. I'm worried 4 new routes, 9 new flights per week, was too much too soon. Krakow is obviously a very strong route, the flights aren't cheap but they're always well filled.

Ok I feel a bit better about Berlin, the flights weren't too cheap. There were some very low fares but EZY appeared to be avoiding what FR were doing. In the summer I paid 45pp return for 2 to go to Warsaw in December (never ended up making it unfortunately). I kept skyscanner alerts on, by September it was down to 20/30 return, twice it went under 10 return in sales, the lowest it got was 8 and it stayed there a few days, then it stayed under 30 until the day before...

From the prices I've seen ( I know it doesn't count for much) but Warsaw seems to have had rock bottom prices, Wroclaw has been variable but Gdansk has averaged higher fares I think. Either way, yields through this winter on all of Ryanair's Polish routes are going to be utter shite, there's no way around it. The fares have been through the floor and people won't be paying for checked luggage on city breaks. I hope onboard purchases have been good, and people have been choosing their seats etc. Filling them in the depths of winter is a good sign, the passengers are there, and hopefully they get them to come back... If they paid 10 this time, they might pay 20 next time, and bring friends/family and spend 30/40 after that and bring a suitcase.

Time... Please just give us time! But I think we could see the weakest one dropped this winter
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Old 10th Jan 2017, 00:07
  #8533 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Newcastle
Posts: 1,818
OMG........ jump first ask questions later!!!!

It's the first month don't panic Ryanair will know they have to build up the routes and winter isn't the time to do it.

Yes we need better loads than late 60% but I'm they will increase as the months carry on

Onboard sales im sure will be better than the 40mins flights to Dublin
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Old 10th Jan 2017, 02:43
  #8534 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
Age: 22
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I know I know! But even in low season, 10 each way within 12 hours of departure...

I'm so glad they filled them, at least we know the people are there, probably the best way to make a loss vs 40% LF's at 50 each, get the bums on the seats and hope they come back

I think they'll make it work, but unless they have quite a good summer, I think the weakest will go. After all they'll have had over 12 months lead in for people to book up. I have faith in Ryanair

easyjet on the other hand, past history... Could go either way 70/30 it doesn't survive 3 years when they find somewhere to redeploy the A/C. I desperately hope to be proven wrong on that one
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Old 10th Jan 2017, 05:07
  #8535 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Northumberland
Posts: 5,160
The fares have been through the floor and people won't be paying for checked luggage on city breaks.
Doubt these Polish routes are aimed at the city breaks market, but it did seem odd to launch all three at once. However, I'm sure that RYR know more about the UK-Poland market than me and anybody else on here!
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Old 10th Jan 2017, 12:18
  #8536 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: London
Posts: 1,907
Cobalt Aero ....Larnaca - Newcastle is now showing on their website again although flight times etc are not yet shown.
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Old 10th Jan 2017, 12:31
  #8537 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
Age: 22
Posts: 1,169
It definitely is odd (or brave... Or stupid... Or very clever and cunning!) of Ryanair to shart all 3 at once, there isn't really a massive Polish population up here, so I suspect that perhaps a larger proportion of traffic could be aimed at city breaks than say... Wizzair at Doncaster. Peculiar but I really do want it to work out for them. We need a bit of balls from time to time

Good news about Cobalt if it comes to fruition, I do wonder how many passengers they'll be able to pick up being a complete unknown round here, and against LS, TOM and TCX. 4 airlines in Cyprus now... Oh dear :/ I feel an OLT express coming on...
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Old 10th Jan 2017, 13:06
  #8538 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Newcastle
Posts: 1,818
Im surprised that Ryanair aren't doing Paphos yet maybe next year
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Old 10th Jan 2017, 19:23
  #8539 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Gateshead, UK
Age: 22
Posts: 1,169
Based on history at other UK airports I think/wonder if Chania is in the pipeline?
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Old 10th Jan 2017, 22:04
  #8540 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: London
Posts: 1,907
Has anyone noticed that on Wikipedia (Newcastle) it says ...Air France (CDG) operated by City Jet (ends 28th Oct)...operated by HOP (from (29th Oct).
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