NEWCASTLE - 8
Madrid is what we wanted RYR to do - a previously unserved major destination, so hopefully expanding the market and not just nicking market share.
Berlin is EZY doing what they do with shortish city runs - don't be surprised if they drop it again in a couple of years for CDG or AMS.
The three RYR polish routes are odd, mainly in terms of them all starting at once - presumably RYR have spotted an underserved polish market in the North east. I don't think these are primarily aimed at the city break market.
I think the city break market in the NE is limited - once people have been somewhere they want to go somewhere else, which is why we get this rotation of city destinations.
Berlin is EZY doing what they do with shortish city runs - don't be surprised if they drop it again in a couple of years for CDG or AMS.
The three RYR polish routes are odd, mainly in terms of them all starting at once - presumably RYR have spotted an underserved polish market in the North east. I don't think these are primarily aimed at the city break market.
I think the city break market in the NE is limited - once people have been somewhere they want to go somewhere else, which is why we get this rotation of city destinations.
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once people have been somewhere they want to go somewhere else.
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That's a big advantage with Madrid. From there you can go to Seville, Zaragoza, Valencia, Granada.......
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That's a big advantage with Madrid. From there you can go to Seville, Zaragoza, Valencia, Granada.......
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I agree on quite a few points here. Madrid was a surprise and let's hope it proves sustainable.
Also the NE is a limited market, of that there is no doubt. With that in mind 2 or 3 rotations a week to any city break destination is more than enough for Newcastle. At one point there seemed to be virtually daily flights to the likes of Budapest, Berlin SXF and Bergamo. That just seemed to be plain silly to me.
Anyone looking at a map would see that Poland was massively underserved in the North East full stop. Despite Brexit we are going to have a reasonably sized Polish population for a while and I would have thought the Jet2 flights to Krakow would have only scratched the surface there. By the way Wroclaw is surprisingly lovely and definitely worth a visit.
Finally every month a fresh batch of 18 year olds arrive on the flight scene who may want to explore Europe. Admittedly Ibiza is much more appealing to them than Gdansk, but my point is there will be a time when these young people emerge into the market for city breaks. This is happening now, demographics change constantly. And who knows? If they like it they might go twice.
Also the NE is a limited market, of that there is no doubt. With that in mind 2 or 3 rotations a week to any city break destination is more than enough for Newcastle. At one point there seemed to be virtually daily flights to the likes of Budapest, Berlin SXF and Bergamo. That just seemed to be plain silly to me.
Anyone looking at a map would see that Poland was massively underserved in the North East full stop. Despite Brexit we are going to have a reasonably sized Polish population for a while and I would have thought the Jet2 flights to Krakow would have only scratched the surface there. By the way Wroclaw is surprisingly lovely and definitely worth a visit.
Finally every month a fresh batch of 18 year olds arrive on the flight scene who may want to explore Europe. Admittedly Ibiza is much more appealing to them than Gdansk, but my point is there will be a time when these young people emerge into the market for city breaks. This is happening now, demographics change constantly. And who knows? If they like it they might go twice.
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Our biggest downfall is the lack of middle class, people who may have 2 holidays (likely 1 long haul, 1 short/medium haul) and 1 or 2 city/weekend breaks every year
If we had that we could be talking 10mppa and a much wider range of destinations and frequencies. Look at Bristol... Traveling down there regularly, it always amazes me just how similar Bristol and Newcastle are, I feel at home down there and so much is practically identical, except they are more wealthy. It could be argued they have a larger catchment but having BHX, LHR, CWL, EXT and NQY siphoning off a sizeable amount of theirs, probably has a similar effect to 50% of our catchment being in the sea.
In my eyes Newcastle is (unfortunately) a poor man's Bristol, hence BRS is EZY's 4th largest base and has more than double the passengers we do. Don't get me wrong I love Newcastle and really do think it has a lot of worth as a city, and as a tourist and business destination - but it's the people that live here that spoil it. I'm fully aware I'll probably get called a snob, but I challenge you to argue that point. Not everyone, but a lot of them.
If we had that we could be talking 10mppa and a much wider range of destinations and frequencies. Look at Bristol... Traveling down there regularly, it always amazes me just how similar Bristol and Newcastle are, I feel at home down there and so much is practically identical, except they are more wealthy. It could be argued they have a larger catchment but having BHX, LHR, CWL, EXT and NQY siphoning off a sizeable amount of theirs, probably has a similar effect to 50% of our catchment being in the sea.
In my eyes Newcastle is (unfortunately) a poor man's Bristol, hence BRS is EZY's 4th largest base and has more than double the passengers we do. Don't get me wrong I love Newcastle and really do think it has a lot of worth as a city, and as a tourist and business destination - but it's the people that live here that spoil it. I'm fully aware I'll probably get called a snob, but I challenge you to argue that point. Not everyone, but a lot of them.
but it's the people that live here that spoil it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s...conomy,_stupid
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Well yeah, and that is unfortunate... There are a lot of people who want to work, but can't because of the lack of opportunities
My comment was aimed at the "minority" (there seems to be a hell of a lot of them) who just don't want to work and don't care in general
It would be interesting to know if there is actually any way to improve the fortunes of the North East, or if we're damned to be a poor industrial area, with no industry, for all time
My comment was aimed at the "minority" (there seems to be a hell of a lot of them) who just don't want to work and don't care in general
It would be interesting to know if there is actually any way to improve the fortunes of the North East, or if we're damned to be a poor industrial area, with no industry, for all time
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I'd be very surprised if anybody at all had that answer. Education would probably be the first step, but there just isn't the work ethic up here. I know not everybody is academically gifted, I'm certainly not but I bet a lot of people have more potential than they show
Back on topic anyway, I think Ryanair is taking a measured risk with the Polish routes and Madrid, I'm confident it will pay off, and if it does I think the future might start looking a little brighter for us
I've said it before, if the airport is ambitious but careful with Ryanair, it might just provoke a healthy reaction from Easyjet and possibly Jet2
For all I'd love expansion from Thomson, with a few more 4/5 - 10/11 night holiday options and slightly more exotic destinations, I doubt we'll get it. Jet2 are probably too strong on the traditional markets for TOM to expand them, thus not making more exotic destinations worth it. Long haul I hope there's scope for a little more...
I worry about Thomas Cook though, I think they're the number 1 contender, closely followed by Easyjet, for shrinkage in the next few years, unless the powers that be expand cautiously
Back on topic anyway, I think Ryanair is taking a measured risk with the Polish routes and Madrid, I'm confident it will pay off, and if it does I think the future might start looking a little brighter for us
I've said it before, if the airport is ambitious but careful with Ryanair, it might just provoke a healthy reaction from Easyjet and possibly Jet2
For all I'd love expansion from Thomson, with a few more 4/5 - 10/11 night holiday options and slightly more exotic destinations, I doubt we'll get it. Jet2 are probably too strong on the traditional markets for TOM to expand them, thus not making more exotic destinations worth it. Long haul I hope there's scope for a little more...
I worry about Thomas Cook though, I think they're the number 1 contender, closely followed by Easyjet, for shrinkage in the next few years, unless the powers that be expand cautiously
Brunel to Concorde
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Look at Bristol... Traveling down there regularly, it always amazes me just how similar Bristol and Newcastle are, I feel at home down there and so much is practically identical, except they are more wealthy. It could be argued they have a larger catchment but having BHX, LHR, CWL, EXT and NQY siphoning off a sizeable amount of theirs, probably has a similar effect to 50% of our catchment being in the sea.
BHX does see more passengers from the South West using it - approaching half a million in the latest CAA survey - but the biggest leakage is to the London airports, mainly LHR, with over five million passengers annually from the South West. This is not really such a big loss to BRS as it might appear because many of the routes, especially long haul, would not be viable there anyway.
I was once a regular through NCL (from/to BRS with easyJet) and I found NCL provided a very good passenger experience. I wish easyJet would reinstate to some extent its frequencies, and particularly timings, of a few years ago - can't really do a day trip any more, but this topic has been raised before in this thread of course.
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TCX & TOM are highstreet names , both know exactly how to do holidays and do them really well. Thomas Cook have had 3 based Aircraft here for over 5 years and are generally cheaper than Thomson so cant see them downsizing.
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Massive over complication of the issue by spotters re NCL!
You have 2.7 million people to use. That will only allow certain routes / frequencies to be viable [even with RYR].
Yes the propensity to fly in the North East is not quite as high as other more affluent regions but the overriding factor is the population catchment of a remote region. Once that 2.7 million are used on viable routes - that is it. No passengers are coming from anywhere else. Hence New York not quite working.
Not like Bristol in the slightest, which has more than double the population catchment of NCL.
The management of NCL are doing a great job and are maximising what is possible with 2.7 million people.
You have 2.7 million people to use. That will only allow certain routes / frequencies to be viable [even with RYR].
Yes the propensity to fly in the North East is not quite as high as other more affluent regions but the overriding factor is the population catchment of a remote region. Once that 2.7 million are used on viable routes - that is it. No passengers are coming from anywhere else. Hence New York not quite working.
Not like Bristol in the slightest, which has more than double the population catchment of NCL.
The management of NCL are doing a great job and are maximising what is possible with 2.7 million people.
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Looks like the MAN-based Avion went tech in Dalaman, ours was positioned out there last night to bring the MAN passengers home. A321 positioned up from Gatwick this morning to pick up the Avion schedule.
-HD-
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MerchantVenturer, I completely agree, i just can't fathom the easyjet BRS schedules at all... They just don't make any sense to me unfortunately, have to make do for now though I suppose